gNA$hCAR Notes

2006-02-18T22:21:00.000-08:00

2006 Preseason Predictions

Probably not the way it will be, but certainly the way I think it might be at the end of the Chase...

1) Jeff Gordon -- It's now or maybe never for that fifth title. 2005 began with such promise and ended on a high note, but in between was a stretch of horrible finishes that sank the DuPont Chevy and relegated one of the best drivers in gNA$hCAR history to his worst ever season finish of 11th. He WILL make the Chase in 2006. When he does, watch out.

2) Greg Biffle -- He came oh-so-close to winning the title last year and is driven to get one this season. I don't think anyone will deny a focused Gordon, however. Not even a Roushketeer.

3) Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- Back with Tony Eury Jr. at crew chief and regrouped after a disappointing 2005 season. Junior has the pieces in place, and the maturity, to make a serious run at a championship.

4) Tony Stewart -- Tony is more relaxed these days. He is always a threat to make the Chase. But Tony had his day last season and it is very tough to repeat.

5) Ryan Newman -- Another bridesmaid. I keep waiting for him to put the rest of the pieces of the puzzle in place (i.e. victories to go with all those poles). He showed more poise in the latter half of 2005. Will rivalry with Kurt Busch now in the garage push him to the next level?

6) Mark Martin -- Having fun going into his final season. Just won't have enough to clinch that elusive championship.

7) Denny Hamlin -- The bar for rookies has been set very high, but Denny is no flash in the pan. Expect to see the FedEx Chevy finishing up near the front more often this season.

8) Kyle Busch -- The kid will be a star in this league, but he needs to mature. Going fast isn't the only thing you need to win a championship; you have to have a good head on your shoulders, which comes with experience and maturity.

9) Carl Edwards -- He shocked a lot of observers in 2005 when he made the Chase and then finished third. This year the expectations are high, but the pressure may not be a benefit down the stretch.

10) Jimmie Johnson -- I don't like the way things are starting out for Jimmie. This looks like a year for a lot of distractions, which are never good when trying to focus on the big picture. Jimmie can carry this team for a while, but if Chad Knaus winds up with more than a wrist slap after the recent rule infractions, that will be a serious dent in Johnson's ability to contend for a title.

GUYS I DIDN'T PICK:

* Matt Kenseth -- If Jimmie Johnson isn't there, Matt will be.

* Kurt Busch -- A rebuilding year with a new team. Fugeddaboudit.

* Jamie McMurray -- Puhlese. Jamie will find a way to blow a shot at the Chase with Roush just as he did with Ganassi. He's a decent driver -- read that as decent, not great.

* Martin Truex Jr. -- He'll be a star eventually, but I don't see it happening in his rookie season.

* Bobby Labonte -- Maybe he and Robbie Loomis will return Petty Enterprises to respectability. Maybe Bobby will never win another race in his career.

* Jeremy Mayfield -- Talent level of competition continues to improve; Jeremy doesn't.

* Kevin Harvick -- Slacker. This will be his last year with Richard Childress -- if he lasts to the end of the season. Happy needs to shake things up and get with a team that will give him the motivation he needs to live up to his real potential.

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:

* Denny Hamlin has to be my pick since he is also my sole rookie pick to make the Chase. But I could see Martin Truex or Clint Bowyer giving him a run for his money. Clint's trouble is he's with RCR in the #07 ride Dave Blaney left at the end of last season. The car was a frequent DNF. Truex Jr. has the full backing of DEI, which might help him at places like Daytona and Talladega, but I've yet to see him knock out a solid finish in Cup.

2006-02-18T21:39:00.000-08:00

Revving up for 2006

The Daytona 500 is tomorrow, which officially begins another season for the gNA$hCAR Nextel Cup drivers. Ordinarily it would also begin another season of gNA$hCAR Notes, and I would chime in here every week with my "Glenn's Ten" predictions, then the post-race analysis for each of the 36 points races.

I say "ordinarily" because this is not going to be an ordinary season for gNA$hCAR Notes. As much as I have enjoyed doing the weekly posts for the past two years, I have found the two hours or so they consume of my weekend to be time I can't afford right now. So for 2006 at least I will probably post sporadically if at all. 8-(

That said, I will make my preseason predictions and then check back at some point to see how I'm doing/how I did.

DAYTONA 500 (Week 1)

Jeff Burton is on the pole (imagine that!) and all eyes are on folks like Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart and Dale Earnhardt Jr. to win the Great American Race. But the guy I'm watching is Kurt Busch. Why? Busch, when he drove for Jack Roush, was a consistent threat to win at Daytona. Even a couple of years ago when he wound up a lap down, he still had one of the fastest cars on the track. Granted, he's no longer driving for Roush, but I think that will be his extra incentive to finally win one. he has a lot to prove to the racing community, and to his new owner, Roger Penske. The Penske Dodges of late have had a tough run at Daytona. Who will soon forget Ryan Newman's end-over in 2003? Rusty Wallace tried for years to win here and never could. Busch excels under pressure, and he's got a bunch after his late-season altercation with some Phoenix traffic cops that was the nadir of his career with Roush. He's stepping into the #2 Miller Lite machine once piloted by the popular Wallace. And he will now be teammates with the strong-willed and equally talented Newman, which should stir a strong rivalry. Plus I think that Busch is due. This won't be a championship year for him -- too many strikes against him trying to adjust to a new team -- but Sunday could be his day at Daytona.

GLENN'S TEN (in no particular order, and for this week only):

* Kurt Busch (winner) -- see above.
* Jeff Gordon -- if the engine doesn't break. Hendrick motors have been showing chinks in qualifying and practice.
* Matt Kenseth -- he was my pick to win the Bud Shootout but ran into problems early. Hasn't been a good Speedweeks for him thus far.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- Jr. will be back in top form this year.
* Denny Hamlin -- Won the Shootout and might have earned some respect in the process. It could pay off in a top 10 finish.
* Tony Stewart -- A threat to win. He did win Saturday's Busch race.
* Mike Wallace -- You always need a dark horse, and Mike's mine. The #09 has found a way to finish in the mix in past years.
* Dale Jarrett -- knows how to get it done in the closing laps.
* Mark Martin -- This time it really is the last chance for a win in the 500.
* Jimmie Johnson -- Oh how I'd love to pick him for the win, given all the adversity he's had to overcome this week. With crew chiew Chad Knaus on suspension for what amounts to cheating, Jimmie had to go to the back of the field for the Twin 150 race. He proved he has a car to win, but I worry about those Hendrick engines. Moreso, I don't think it's Jimmie's turn yet.

AND WHAT ABOUT... Carl Edwards? (Bad luck in the Bud Shootout is a sneak preview of Sunday)... Greg Biffle? (Probably should have included him. He has run well here other occasions)... Michael Waltrip? (Not convinced yet that being in business for himself is going to get him to the checkers)... Elliott Sadler (Will find a way to choke when the race is on the line)... Kyle Busch? (Aggressiveness will be his undoing)... Ryan Newman? (Every driver has a track too tough to tame. This one is Ryan's).

2005-11-25T23:33:00.000-08:00

End of the year review

Now that the season is over and the smoke has finally dissipated from Tony Stewart’s championship burnout at Homestead, it’s time for one last visit with my preseason gNA$hCAR predictions. Here’s how I fared:

* Jimmie Johnson -- (Prediction: 1st. Finish: 5th) What I said: “The guy who should have won last year won't be the bridesmaid for a third year in a row. He's already off to a good start, winning the Bud Shootout last Saturday night.” Review: OK, Jimmie wasn’t the maid of honor, thanks to crashing out of the final race, but he was a maid nonetheless. This was a disappointing year for Hendrick Motorsports all the way around, but Jimmie looked like the lone bright spot before he slumped a bit mid-season. He wasn’t as sharp in the final 10 races this year, but it’s hard to improve on last year’s stretch drive when he won three out of four at one point to finish just 8 points shy of the title. Jimmie will have his day, I predict. He will be a force to reckon with for years to come.

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- (Prediction: 2nd. Finish: 19th) What I said: “Here's a man on a mission. He wants to win. The media want him to win. The fans want him to win. He's shaken up his crew in the offseason. It will either be a boom year or a bust. Little E won't let it be a bust.” Review: Sorry, but it was a bust. The team looked flat the first half of the season, and by the time they got Tony Eury Jr. back on the pit box it was too late to turn things around. There were some bright spots in the second half, including the lone victory at Chicagoland. Look for Junior to get his act together next season and contend again.

* Jeff Gordon -- (Prediction: 3rd. Finish: 11th) What I said: “Mr. Consistency would have been last year's champ under the old points system, but he was good enough that he could have won under the new format as well, with a little better luck. A savvy racer, he'll find a way to be in the race for the big money when it counts.” Review: Gordo did win the race for the big money, taking the million bucks for 11th place, but by missing the cutoff for the Chase, he and fans are left to wonder what might have been. The addition of Steve Letarte at crew chief has made a definite impact. His program on the intermediate tracks looked better in the final month at Phoenix, Texas (for a while) and Homestead. Jeff won’t let it go another year without making the top 10.

* Tony Stewart -- (Prediction: 4th. Finish: 1st) What I said: “Tony had an up-and-down sort of year last season. He needs to get off the emotional roller coaster and focus on his driving. When he's on his game he is a threat to win it all. He needs to get off to a fast start in 2005 to have a realistic shot.” Review: Tony didn’t get off to a fast start, but he peaked at the right time by winning an amazing five races over a seven-week stretch. Then Smoke did what he does well: he managed his lead, using consistent top 10s to salt away the championship. Look out for the future, because this “new” Tony is much more potent when he’s relaxed and focused.

* Matt Kenseth -- (Prediction: 5th. Finish: 7th). What I said: “Don't count the 2003 champ out. Ever. Matt might not make many visits to Victory Lane, but he is often in the top 10, which is where you want to be to make the Chase.” Review: Matt’s chances at a Chase looked dead mid-season. But then something clicked and he got enough good runs to make the cut by the thinnest of margins. While he didn’t show championship form in the final 10 races, he still managed to get some respectable finishes. Still, one win all season is a disappointment for these guys.

* Jamie McMurray -- (Prediction: 6th. Finish: 12th) What I said: “One of the biggest disappointments of 2004 was this young man not making the cut. He poured it on the final few races to lock up the 11th spot. Maybe that was the kick start he needed to live up to his potential this year.” Review: Nope. Sorry. Jamie, in three full seasons, has proven his knack for coming up short, missing the Chase last year at Richmond, and missing out on 11th this year after being in prime position to take it. Taking over Kurt Busch’s ride in the #97 next year will prove his mettle or reveal him as yet another mediocre driver.

* Kasey Kahne -- (Prediction: 7th. Finish: 23rd) What I said: “Last season's top rookie is still looking for that first win. He'll finally get at least one. Experience will make the difference this year.” Review: Kasey did finally get that first victory, at Richmond in the spring. But his lack of consistency doomed him at every turn. Ray Evernham may have been the guy that helped turn Jeff Gordon into a champion, but all the comparisons between Jeff and Kasey end there. Maybe it was just the sophomore jinx, but Kasey can only go up from here.

* Ryan Newman -- (Prediction: 8th. Finish: 6th) What I said: “I've downgraded my expectations for the Rocket Man. Last year should have been his breakout season, but he nearly missed the Chase with inconsistent performance midseason. The checkers-or-wreckers approach doesn't work. Ryan needs to stop worrying about leading every lap and just finishing the darn thing. New model Dodges could help or hurt his chances.” Review: Ryan matured a lot this season, showing more consistency in the latter two-thirds. But he hasn’t figured out how to translate all those poles into wins, or even top 5’s, something he needs to figure out how to do in order to be a serious threat at the title. His one win at New Hampshire in the first race of the Chase was the lone bright spot. He stumbled too much in the latter races. It will be interesting to see how the addition of Kurt Busch to the Penske stable next season affects Ryan’s drive to win. Penske seems to be the only multi-car team where the word “teammate” doesn’t mean anything.

* Dale Jarrett -- (Prediction: 9th. Finish: 15th) What I said: “DJ spent most of last season rebuilding after a disastrous 2003. He came close to making the cut for the Chase. He's on the pole for Daytona, which by itself isn't an indicator of success over 36 races, but it is a good sign for this once-proud championship team.” Review: DJ finally got that long-awaited win with the shocker at Daytona in July. But the rest of the season looked too much like the one before, with the low coming when he took out Ryan Newman and himself along with Chase conteder Kevin Harvick in a retaliatory strike at Bristol. That effectively killed his chances at making the Chase, and we heard nothing more from Dale the remainder of the season.

* Kurt Busch -- (Prediction: 10th. Finish: 10th) What I said: “Last year wasn't entirely a fluke. Kurt was good enough to make the Chase with consistent performance early in the season, even if he was only 7th when the Chase began. Look for him to get in again this year, but the defending champ's curse will leave him with a mediocre finish.” Review: And what a curse it was. This was the only one of my picks that I nailed. Kurt shot himself in the foot with DNFs early in the Chase. He was out of contention long before the reckless driving incident at Phoenix caused him to be suspended for the final two races. Kurt has a lot of maturing to do. I just wish he wasn’t doing it at Penske South next season in the Blue Deuce that belonged to Rusty Wallace.

OTHER CHASERS:

* Carl Edwards -- (Finished 3rd) What I said: “You know that someone new will sneak into the top 10. Why not Mr. Edwards, who distinguished himself last season when he stepped into the #99. With Roush behind him there is a good chance he'll make the cut in his first full season. We wanna see some backflips!” Review: Should have gone with my instincts here. We saw Carl do the flip four times -- twice at Atlanta, once at Texas and also at Pocono. Carl is a breath of fresh air in a sport that has lost a lot of its colorful old-timers to brash Young Guns. He is calm, poised and focused. Better yet, he actually seems to know how to win races. This was for all intents and purposes a rookie season, even if he won’t get the ROTY title to show for it. How long before he’ll win his first championship?

* Greg Biffle -- (Finished: 2nd) What I said: “Biffle turned it up in the final weeks of last season. He comes into 2005 with high expectations. If he can string together some good finishes in the first couple of months he might be a factor.” Review: He strung together more than good finishes, he got five wins early in the season to pace the field. He cooled off a bit when Stewart was getting hot, which probably hurt his shot at the title. He finished in fine form again, taking the win at Homestead for a second year in a row.

* Mark Martin -- (Finished: 4th) What I said: “Would be a great way to end a career by winning the Cup. Squeaked into the Chase at Richmond last season. Won't get a shot this year.” Review: I counted Mark out too early. He looked better this year than in 2004, when he barely made the Chase. And now he gets to come back for one more season. Will 2006 finally be the year Mark gets the monkey off his hood and takes home a elusive championship?

* Jeremy Mayfield -- (Finished: 9th) What I said: Nothing. Review: As usual, I counted Jeremy out at the start of the year. And as usual, Jeremy proved I counted him out too soon, making a strong early run to make the Chase and then whiffing his way through it. Only Kurt Busch’s traffic citation allowed Mayfield the dignity of better than a basement finish for a second straight year.

OTHERS I MENTIONED:

* Elliott Sadler -- (Finished: 13th) What I said: “He played his way into the Chase by driving conservatively over the final few races leading up to Richmond. Other teams will step up their game this year, and conservative won't get it done.” Review: Like teammate Jarrett, faded in the clutch.

* Bobby Labonte -- (Finished: 24th) What I said: “Has the #18 crew smoothed over its problems from last season? Labonte showed signs he was coming around late last year, but the competition is stepping up. Joe Gibbs stable still up in the air, and now adding a third team.” Review: I think Bobby’s heart wasn’t in it this year, which is why he jumped ship for Petty Enterprises in 2006. I don’t expect to see him back in victory lane anytime soon, but sometimes it’s a good confidence booster to be a big fish in a small pond. At least he’ll have Robbie Loomis working with him.

* Kevin Harvick -- (Finished: 14th) What I said: “Still driving for Richard Childress, but maybe not in 2006. Rumor has him heading to Penske to replace Rusty Wallace. Such distractions aren't good for a championship run.” Review: Kevin’s staying put. His reputation as a slacker is growing as he continues to hang with underachiever Richard Childress Racing.

* Joe Nemechek -- (Finished: 16th) What I said: “A dark horse? Joe keeps getting better and better. But I doubt he'll be consistent enough to make the cut.” Review: Typical Joe. Ripped off a few strong runs only to have them torpedoed by bad parts or bad luck.

* Casey Mears -- (Finished: 22nd) What I said: “He proved last season that he can drive. But he's still driving for Chip Ganassi, who hasn’t been able to get his stable of Sterling Marlin, Jamie McMurray or Mears to the next level in the past three years. I think McMurray has the best shot.” Review: Indeed, McMurray finished best of the bunch, but Mears looked the best of the three of them at year’s end. Moving to the #42 next year won’t improve much.

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:

* Kyle Busch -- (winner) (Finished: 20th) What I said: “Kyle Busch should be a lock for this, but then I said that about Brian Vickers last year and look what happened. Travis Kvapil and Eric McClure are only other ROTY contenders. Carl Edwards and Bobby Hamilton Jr. aren't eligible because they ran more than six races last season.” Review: Kyle was head and shoulders about Travis Kvapil, the only other serious contender. With two wins on the season and several strong runs, Kyle is in position to have a decent shot at the Chase next year. Has to overcome mechanical woes to get there.

2005-11-20T17:50:00.000-08:00

Tony times two

What for so many weeks seemed inevitable finally happened on Sunday as Tony Stewart claimed his second Cup championship. It wasn't elegant, as has been the case in recent years at this track. But Tony got the finish he needed to hold off the competition, and it didn't hurt that his nearest challenger, Jimmie Johnson, cut a tire and crashed midway through the event, spoiling his chances.

The fact that Greg Biffle beat Mark Martin in an exciting duel to the checkers to capture the final race of the year was lost in the post-race fireworks. A very good race to bring a fine conclusion to a verrrrry loooong season.

And I got a good conclusion as far as my picks were concerned. It is gratifying to go out by picking the winner...

GLENN'S TEN (7-of-10... Matches my best for the year):

* Greg Biffle (winner) -- Winner! And how he did it I'm not sure, because Greg's car looked average most of the day. He managed to overcome handling problems from early in the race to overtake Mark Martin on the final restart. He held Mark off by a fraction of a second at the checkers to get his sixth win of the season and defend his win here from a year ago. Finishes second in points, 35 back.

* Jeff Gordon -- 9th, Jeff locked up the 11th-place points spot with this finish. For a time it looked like he might be the driver to beat, but as usual the car wasn't its strongest in the final laps when he was racing all the Roush cars. Getting caught in traffic wasn't to his benefit. Wait till Daytona...

* Mark Martin -- 2nd, Darn near won it all. Mark was his usual consistent self, working his way to a late lead that he couldn't hold when teammate Biffle got by him. I don't think Mark realized The Biff was as much of a threat as he proved to be. Winds up fourth in points.

* Carl Edwards -- 4th, Carl won the pole and led the most laps, but he didn't get the win he needed. It wouldn't have made any difference in the bigger picture of the championship, but it did affect his finish in the standings -- tied with Biffle at 35 points back, but third for the year based on number of victories (Biffle's 6 to his 4).

* Bobby Labonte -- 34th, One of my two low spots. Bobby spun out and brushed the wall. It was light damage, but severe enough to take away the aerodynamics and ruin his afternoon.

* Ryan Newman -- 7th, Ryan had a good run going until he and Jeff Gordon made contact and it damaged Ryan's fender. He had to bring the car in early to change tires. He managed to get back on the lead lap, but he never got back up to the front like he'd done earlier in the race.

* Kyle Busch -- 41st, 2005 Rookie of the Year won't want to remember this race. He drove around for a few laps with a tire rub caused by pit contact with Mike Skinner -- (note to Kyle: Avoid Mike Skinner at all costs) -- until the tire blew and put him behind the wall for almost 50 laps.

* Casey Mears -- 5th, There was a point where we actually believed Casey might be headed to his first win. But of course the caution came out while he was leading and ruined his day. Not a bad run overall.

* Matt Kenseth -- 3rd, Great day for all the Roush regulars. Matt's team mouring the death of Crew Chief Robbie Reiser's dad, but they won one for the Gipper. OK, so they didn't win, but you get the idea.

* Rusty Wallace -- 13th, Rusty didn't get the win he would have loved in his final race in his final season, but he goes out with class. I liked the subtle message to Kurt Busch, his successor in the #2 next season, when he told a TV interviewer that he loved all the good things happening with gNA$hCAR and that he'd hate to see anyone screw it up the sport's reputation, old or young. Were you paying attention, Kurt?

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Dave Blaney -- 6th, Remember this day, because you might not see Blaney's name at all next season. He's still looking for a ride.

* Kevin Harvick -- 8th, There are days when you see flashes of the driver Kevin used to be and should be. Today was one of them. He was up around the top 10 all race.

* Keremy Mayfield -- 10th, Just so we wouldn't completely forget that Jeremey at one time was in the Chase for the Nextel Cup, he came through with a top 10. Yay. Hooray. He'll be a force to reckon with in '06. Right.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Tony Stewart -- 15th, Who cares where Tony finished, so long as he won the title? He drove a conservative race, never getting higher than about 9th. Once Jimmie Johnson crashed there was very little drama left. When the final caution came out just before Mears would have put him a lap down, Tony was locked into no worse than a 16th-place finish. He needed 25th or better to beat Edwards for the title. A well -deserved second title, which Tony will wear better than the first one he got while on probation.

* Jimmie Johnson -- 40th, An awful day all around for Team Hendrick. With the exception of Jeff Gordon, no other driver finished better than 40th. Jimmie had tire problems reminiscent of Busch's. The tire blew right in front of Gordon as Jimmie was sliding back through the field. Unlike Labonte's solo wipeout earlier, Johnson suffered heavy damage and had to retire from the race. The disastrous finish leaves him 5th overall for the season, much worse than he deserved. But he will have his day in the future, I'm convinced.

Next week... That's all folks! (Well, I'll do my recap of my preseason predictions in the next few days or so.)

2005-11-19T16:37:00.000-08:00

Week 36 -- Homestead (Chase Round 10 -- and final!)

So it all comes down to this. Just 52 points separates Jimmie Johnson from a championship, and if he's going to overcome the deficit then he'll have to have a stellar day at this mile-and-a-half high-banked oval, and he'll need some cooperation from points leader Tony Stewart. Unfortunately, Jimmie didn't hold up his end of the bargain in qualifying and starts a disappointing 32nd on Sunday. This is cause for concern, but not dispair. You see, Homestead has been an unforgiving track for points leaders in recent years, and it hasn't been especially kind to Chevys (excepting Bobby Labonte's big surprise win here two years ago). That might bode well for Carl Edwards, who starts from the pole and is just 87 points out. Greg Biffle? He could still win this thing, but don't expect to see him popping champagne corks in Victory Lane at the end of this one, unless it is for winning the race itself.

OK, we've set the stage for a fantastic finish. Now for the final...

GLENN'S TEN:

* Greg Biffle (winner) -- This is a Ford track. Even moreso, this is a Roush track. When his cars haven't been winning championships they've been running up front here. Greg can't withstand anything less than a win on Sunday, and even that might not get him the championship, but the extra incentive, coupled with Saturday's second-place run in the Busch race, will get him to the winner's circle.

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Jeff Gordon -- Jeff has proven he can run well here, but too many others have incentive to keep him away from his first win ever here. Still, he's racing for that 11th place million-dollar bonus.
* Mark Martin -- Turns out this isn't his final race after all, but he'll make a top-5 run.
* Carl Edwards -- He's on a roll at the right time. He could be the dark horse to win it all.
* Bobby Labonte -- Because he's won here before and this is his last race for Joe Gibbs. He'll give it all he's got.
* Ryan Newman -- Coming off a thrilling Busch win Saturday -- his sixth win in seven races. But somehow all those Busch wins and poles during the Cup regular season never seem to translate into Cup victories.
* Kyle Busch -- Has to carry the banner for the other Busch, who won't be here Sunday.
* Casey Mears -- Dodge isn't too shabby here either. Ganassi has a couple of cars starting in the top 10. One of them might even finish there.
* Matt Kenseth -- This has been a nightmarish place for Matt, but I'm figuring he's about due for a good finish. He won't want to miss the Roush party (unlike his former teammate from the #97!)
* Rusty Wallace -- This is the last call for Rusty's Last Call, and his last chance for one more victory before he calls it a career. He won't get it, but oh well.

AND THE REST: Tony Stewart (Tony didn't run well here the year he won his first championship. Many former champions haven't. Jeff Gordon stunk here in 2001; Kenseth crashed out and finished dead last in 2003; Kurt Busch narrowly missed hitting the pit wall when his tire fell off last year, but he rebounded to finish well enough to hold off Jimmie Johnson by 8 points. I fear Tony will be a mid-packer on Sunday, but luck will be on his side and he'll have enough positions behind him to win title number two.)... Jimmie Johnson (I fear that Jimmie won't be able to overcome his poor starting spot. I'd like to see him rally for a top 10 and he just might, but I fear that if he comes up short for the third year in a row he'll start to be the new Mark Martin, always the bridesmaid and never the bride. I'll predict 22nd for Jimmie.)... Kasey Kahne (Kasey was my pick to win this race last year before he wrecked. He wrecked Saturday after leading a portion of the Busch race. He's starting 3rd Sunday. Will he finish?)... Dale Jarrett (I could have almost picked him. A solid 9th-place start at a Ford-friendly track. Unless he races the truck, this should be a race to build into 2006.)

2005-11-15T12:52:00.000-08:00

An all-Busch bash in Phoenix

The most interesting thing to come out of Sunday's race wasn't the fact that Kyle Busch won, but that Kenny Wallace actually drove Kurt Busch's car to a respectable 16th-place finish. All those pictures you might have seen of Jimmy Fenning with his head in his hands before the start of the race probably had little to do with Kurt's plight and more to do with fretting over whether Kenny would bring the car home in one piece. These days you don't want just any old clown driving your multi-million dollar equipment. Oh yeah, that's what Jack Roush was probably thinking when he released Kurt from his contract with two races left in the season. Bet Roger Penske right about now is thinking, "What the heck did I get myself into here?"

If you haven't guessed by now, I don't shed a lot of tears over Kurt acting like a jacka$$ for an Arizona police officer after getting stopped for a "reckless driving" violation. The breathalyzer down at the station "malfunctioned," resulting in an inconclusive test. You can read that any way you like, but if you don't see DUI in that story then you probably still think Kurt has a shot at winning a second championship next Sunday at Homestead.

The race? Oh yeah...

GLENN'S TEN (5-of-10... I was robbed!):

* Jeff Gordon (winner) -- 3rd, Jeff held up his end of the bargain, finishing a solid race near the front. When he pitted a bit earlier than the rest of the leaders under caution, it looked like he might have made a race-winning move. But about 10 laps later the yellow flew again and ruined his chances at the win.

* Jimmie Johnson -- 7th, Jimmy did everything right except the part about having to finish ahead of Tony Stewart. And in the waning laps of the race he choked away two or three positions he desperately needed. 52 points down going into Homestead isn't where he wants to be if he wants to win a championship.

* Carl Edwards -- 6th, Couldn't beat Tony, but he finished ahead of Jimmie and gained a few points on him. Still has an outside shot next weekend.

* Tony Stewart -- 4th, This just looks like Tony's year. He's loose, joking around, focused... Not the same Tony who won the title in 2002.

* Denny Hamlin -- 13th, See, I jumped on the bandwagon at the wrong time. He didn't embarrass himself with this finish.

* Greg Biffle -- 2nd, He had the dominant car all day, but surprisingly it wasn't strong enough to stay ahead of Kyle Busch at the end.

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 40th, This pick looks like a huge bust until one considers that it was at least four spots ahead of where Kurt Busch finished. I guess this pick was just doomed to failure from the start. Dale had been running strong until a right front tire blew and put him into the wall... and the garage.

* Mark Martin -- 14th, Coming from 29th on the grid, this was a good finish. At least he won't have to worry about finishing second in the championship for a fifth time.

* Ryan Newman -- 12th, With the exception of Earnhardt Jr., all of my picks placed in the top 15. Unfortunately, most of them had been in the top 10 at one point, including the #12. The last set of pit stops jumbled up the field, so the guys that had been strong didn't have time to get back to the front. Ryan was one of them.

* Jeff Burton -- 15th, At least he cracked the top 10 for a while.

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Kyle Busch -- 1st, I felt sure that when Kyle inherited the lead after staying out on the last stop that he was doomed. But the car was strong. He got passed by race-leader Biffle, but a few laps later he grabbed the lead back. Too bad he had to use the Victory Lane speech as a show of solidarity for his loser brother. But blood is thicker than champagne, apparently.

* Bobby Labonte -- 5th, He'd like to feel what it's like to be in the winner's circle one last time before wasting the rest of his competitive years driving for the Pettys.

* Robby Gordon -- 8th, A great day for Robby. Coming off a great 7th place start. This could turn everything around for him. Who cares?

* Dale Jarrett -- 9th, And he wasn't even racing the truck.

* Travis Kvapil -- 10th, Been so long since I've had to type his name that I forgot how to spell it. Wow. Good think Kurt Busch is joining Penske next year, because Travis surely needs some more mentoring from a former champion. Right.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Kevin Harvick -- 23rd, Once again turned a good start into crap.

* Rusty Wallace -- 29th, The Last Call tour is about to reach its last call and Rusty still hasn't won in over a year.

* Kurt Busch -- DNS, I think I've said just about enough about KB for this season. Real reason he was tearful in his Sunday interview? This guarantees he'll finish 10th in the Chase -- behind Jeremy Mayfield. The ultimate insult!

Next week: Hurrah! Homestead! Just another 400 miles till Tony can start polishing his new hardware.

2005-11-13T12:06:00.000-08:00

Phoenix pick change!

OK, seeing as Kurt Busch has been suspended the final two races for "reckless" driving, I will dump him from this week's Glenn's Ten in favor of Dale Earnhardt Jr.

...Geez, what a bonehead.

2005-11-12T22:20:00.000-08:00

Week 35 -- Phoenix (Chase Round 9)

We're getting close to the end, and can't you feel the suspense building? Phoenix may not decide the championship, but it will definitely set the table for whatever happens next Sunday at Homestead. Every point for Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards will be crucial if they hope to have a legitimate shot at catching Tony Stewart. And all three are starting in the top 10 this Sunday.

GLENN'S TEN:

* Jeff Gordon (winner) -- Phoenix is one of four tracks where Jeff Gordon hasn't won. But unlike the other three, this place he actually has been consistently in the top 10. Last year he was third. The car qualified 10th in race trim late in the qualifying session when the track was heating up. He'll finally break into victory lane here.

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Jimmie Johnson -- will get a good finish and gain points on Tony Stewart, but not as many as he'd like.
* Carl Edwards -- Would be my pick to win if I didn't feel so strongly about Gordon. Carl is on a tear, having won the past two Cup races and Saturday night's Busch race from the pole. We'll see if he can make some serious inroads on Tony's lead.
* Tony Stewart -- He'll keep the other Chasers close to him at the finish.
* Denny Hamlin -- OK, I'm a believer now. The kid won the pole in just his fifth start, and he's coming off several top 10s. Look for Denny to be big stuff in next year's deep rookie class.
* Greg Biffle -- Biff's title chances look slim, but this is a Roush track.
* Kurt Busch -- Kurt's title chances look less than slim, but this is a Roush track.
* Mark Martin -- *Sigh* Do I need to repeat myself...
* Ryan Newman -- He ran his first career race at this track. Could be a top 10 day.
* Jeff Burton -- When he was a Roushketeer he used to win races here. Don't count him out from having a good day.

ALSO WATCHING: Dale Earnhardt Jr. (Back-to-back victories in this race, but I can't find a home for him in the top 10? Yeah, I'll probably live to regret this pick)... Matt Kenseth (Only Rousher I left off the list)... Rusty Wallace (Forget the Chase -- he's out of it anyhow -- this is about trying to get one more win before his career is over)... Kyle Busch (Starts 15th, but has run into trouble lately).

2005-11-08T15:02:00.000-08:00

And then there were three

...No, not three races left in the Chase, but rather three contenders for the Nextel Cup. Tony Stewart and Jimmy Johnson we all sort of expect, but how about Carl Edwards? Back to back wins and another couple of good Roush tracks coming up. Could we be watching an upset in the making?

I fast-forwarded through most of the Texas race, watching just the final 26 laps in their uninterrupted entirety. What a thrilling finish to make up for the rest of this thing. I'm sorry, but even under the lights Texas doesn't impress me that much. It's still just another mile-an-a-half oval.

GLENN'S TEN: (5 for 10... A couple of bogus choices burned me.)

* Ryan Newman (winner) -- 25th, Not my most bogus pick, but certainly not a good one. Ryan's backup car wasn't nearly as good as his pole qualifier, and he spent all day mired in the 20s. He got lapped and had trouble making it up. Finally got in front of the leader with a few laps left to finish last on the lead lap. Title hopes? Toast.

* Jeff Gordon -- 14th, Some guys just seem to have tracks where they don't run well, and Texas is definitely one of Gordo's. The car was mediocre most of the race and it was only because other guys had more problems that he managed to finish this well.

* Matt Kenseth -- 3rd, Yes, a great day for Matt. Still has an outside shot at the championship. Needs Stewart and Johnson to have major stumbles.

* Greg Biffle -- 20th, Wow. Biffle had a miserable day, with a loose wheel that forced him into the pits early, a wild spin on the track, another spin near the pits, and some body damage suffered from contact with other cars. Through it all he still managed to finish mid-pack, but he loses a bundle of points.

* Jimmie Johnson -- 5th, Top 5, baby! Gains a whopping 5 points on Stewart. But as we've seen, every little bit counts.

* Mark Martin -- 2nd, Mark was supposed to have the car to beat Sunday. His decision to stay out on the final pit stop with 10 to go seemed a race-winning decision. But fresh tires for those who came in made the difference.

* Carl Edwards -- 1st, Watch out! This kid's getting hot at the right time. His fourth win of the season leaves him within striking distance of Johnson and Stewart. He took two tires on the final stop to restart sixth, and he blew by the competition with a little more than a lap to go. By far his best backflip. He'll get more practice soon, I suspect. 10th different winner at this track.

* Kasey Kahne -- 42nd, Easily the most bogus of my bogus pick. The engine went south and sent him to the garage. Always seems to be something for the Evernham cars.

* Ricky Rudd -- 13th, Could never quite get into the top 10.

* Elliott Sadler -- 9th, Just made it into the top 10. Never a factor in the race, so I feel good to at least have picked him correctly.

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Casey Mears -- 4th, Is there another contract negotiation coming up? Casey's been running a bit better recently. Let's see.. can we say Reed Sorenson? Ties Casey's best career finish.

* Tony Stewart -- 6th, I underestimated Tony at this track. He roared to the front and was up there much of the day. Got some fender damage late in the race while dueling for position with Mark Martin, and the car wasn't quite as good after that. I think Johnson caught him on the final lap. Still leads the points by 38.

* Denny Hamlin -- 7th, Get used to seeing this kid's name. All these late-season "test sessions" will surely pay off if he makes the Chase next year.

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 8th place finish for the #8 car.

* Kurt Busch -- 10th, Another driver I underestimated. Wish I'd picked him instead of Kahne.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Mike Skinner -- 43rd, At least he didn't wreck anybody this week, just the car when the rear-end broke.

Next week: We're running out of opportunities for the guys chasing the top 3. More under-the-lights action from Phoenix.

2005-11-05T21:21:00.000-08:00

Week 34 -- Texas Part 2 (Chase Race 8)

Welcome to the last cookie-cutter oval in the Chase to crown a new Nextel Cup champion. Texas Motor Speedway hosts its second race of the season for the first time on Sunday. I suppose it's fitting that they've got a mile-and-a-half track, because those seem to be the only kind that gNA$hCAR wants its races run on anymore. They make for really dull racing. But OK. We aren't here to critique the track; we're here to assess the chances of the drivers.

GLENN'S TEN:

* Ryan Newman (winner) -- My rule is that I don't pick Flyin' Ryan anymore when he sits on the pole. But that's the rub this week, as Ryan wrecked on his second qualifying lap and so wins the pole but will have to start from the back of the field on Sunday. I figure one of three things will happen: 1) He'll come all the way from last to win the thing; 2) the car will be terrible from pole to post; or 3) he'll get caught up in the big wreck that Mike Skinner triggers about 10 laps in. I'll cross my fingers and hope it's number 1. Anything less than a win and I think he'll have a tough row to hoe. Phoenix is a good track for him, but not Homestead. It's now or never, Ryan!

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Jeff Gordon -- This has been a miserable track for Super G, but he's taking it more seriously this time around, having tested here and now qualifying second. One of the few tracks where he's never one, including the next two on the schedule. He'll nail down another victory before the year is out, I predict. Why not here?
* Matt Kenseth -- Watch out! Matt starts third. When he's this far to the front (pole actually, thanks to Newman's woes), Matty is usually in for a good day.
* Greg Biffle -- Going for the Texas sweep after winning the spring race. Anything less than a top 5 would be a surprise.
* Jimmie Johnson -- Will find a way to finish well, but will it gain him ground on Tony Stewart? (Read on...)
* Mark Martin -- Roush drivers say this is one of their better tracks. I can believe that.
* Carl Edwards -- Current king of the mile-and-a-half ovals after his sweep of Atlanta. This track is considered Atlanta's twin.
* Kasey Kahne -- He was leading the Busch race Saturday when he blew a tire. Something always seems to sabotage his best runs. I'm betting it won't happen for a change on Sunday.
* Ricky Rudd -- Can we sneak Ricky into another top 10?
* Elliott Sadler -- Former Texas winner starts 12th.

ALSO WATCHING: Dale Earnhardt Jr. (Like Jeff Gordon, has absolutely nothing to lose by going for broke here)... Tony Stewart (Everybody's got one Achilles heel, and I fear this track may be Tony's. If he has problems it's going to throw the Chase wide open)... Bobby Labonte (Sort of like his home track. Could help him get a good finish)... Kurt Busch (From 18th it is possibile he could get to the front, but his title hopes are toast and the motivation isn't there like it could be.)

2005-10-31T02:14:00.000-08:00

Atlanta is Edwards' gym

More backflips for Carl Edwards at Atlanta Motor Speedway on Sunday. Clearly this kid has something for this place, as this is the second straight race he's won there and he did it in convincing fashion.

The track looked pretty good following repairs in the wake of tornado damage from Hurricane Cindy back in July. The same could not be said for some of the Chasers, three of whom are as good as toast after this race.

GLENN'S TEN (4-for-10... I don't like Atlanta much.):

* Jimmie Johnson (winner) -- Jimmie's car was mediocre and got worse late in the race. He wound up 16th after getting lapped and picking up the lucky dog. Now 46 points behind Tony Stewart.

* Ryan Newman -- 23rd, This place is like a curse. He wins the pole at this track for the seventh time and encounters bad luck yet again. The car became too hard to handle late in the race and he was lapped twice.

* Carl Edwards -- 1st, Carl left little doubt about this one. He was loose and fast from the drop of the green, almost hitting the wall a coulpe of times. That looseness made him unbeatable on the long green runs near the finish. Still needs some work on the backflip.

* Mark Martin -- 3rd, Car looked strongest early, but he was in the thick of it all afternoon.

* Kyle Busch -- 12th, Kyle's biggest problem was that he had to run into the forbidden grass to avoid hitting Greg Biffle during a pit stop. That got him sent to the end of the longest line and he never looked as strong as when he led the race early in the day.

* Tony Stewart -- 9th, This was not a strong race for Tony, but he got a top 10 and had the good fortune that Jimmie Johnson and Greg Biffle also had tough days. We won't even talk about Flyin' Ryan again.

* Bobby Labonte -- This pick was a bust from the start. Never moved above about 30th and was laps down early.

* Brian Vickers -- 15th, Well, he was in the top 10 briefly. Car faded down the stretch.

* Jeff Gordon -- 2nd, Jeff moved up in a hurry and then settled into the top 5. He briefly looked like he might have something for Edwards on the final green run, but Carl was simply too strong.

* Kurt Busch -- 36th, Dang! I'm not upset Kurt crashed hard when a tire went down and limped home, his title hopes effectively shot -- I'm upset that I picked him.

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 4th, Nice run for the Bud boys. Led the most laps, but the guys who finished ahead of him adjusted better on their cars down the stretch.

* Matt Kenseth -- 5th, Got dinged for speeding in the pits, but a nice recovery.

* Jamie McMurray -- 6th, Could be on his way to Roush earlier than expected if a deal gets worked out this week.

* Greg Biffle -- 7th, Three of the drivers on my "also watching" list made the top 10. Foo.

* Jeff Burton -- 8th, So easily forgotten because it's been so long since these finishes were commonplace.

* Elliott Sadler -- 10th, When he blew to the front early I thought this might be a bid day after all. Then he proved my earlier prediction almost correct by barely making the show. At least he didn't crash out.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Michael Waltrip -- 11th, From 37th! And in the top 10 a good part of the race. Way to go, Mikey!

* Kasey Kahne -- 35th, Got an unwanted up-close look at the nose of Reed Sorenson's car.

* Rusty Wallace -- 37th, Game over man. Not his fault that he was in the right place at the wrong time when Mike Skinner's tire blew.

* Jeremy Mayfield -- 38th, What the heck are these guys doing changing crew chiefs in the middle of a championship run? OK, so they weren't much in it, but odd nonetheless.

* Mike Skinner -- 43rd, Beware any starting grid that includes Skinner's name. His tire problem was the one that took out Kevin Lepage and caused the demise of Rusty Wallace's race.

Next week: Two-steppin' into Texas Motor Speedway for the inaugural fall race in the Lone Star State.

2005-10-29T17:33:00.000-07:00

Week 33 -- Atlanta (Chase Round 7)

I can't believe that the Speed Channel guys, during Friday's qualifying for this race, actually said there are only two drivers with a legitimate chance to win the Nextel Cup. Have they looked at the point standing recently? Sure, Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson are nip and tuck at the top, but Ryan Newman and Greg Biffle are well within striking distance, and with the possible exception of Jeremy Mayfield there are five other guys who are still mathematically alive should something happen to the leaders.

That's why they run the races, and Atlanta is one of those places that -- as we saw last year -- can dramatically impact the fortunes of the Chasers. Had Jeff Gordon not crashed in this race last year we would be talking about five-time champ Gordo instead of that guy Kurt Busch who "stole" the championship. Or perhaps it would be Jimmie Johnson going for his second title. Remember, he was 226 points or something like that behind after the first two races and he made almost all of it up by Homestead.

Nope, too early to count folks out. But this race could change everything.

GLENN'S TEN:

* Jimmie Johnson (winner) -- Jimmie is trying to "get inside" Stewart's head. I think it's working -- about as well as Jimmie's car will be working Sunday. He had emotion going for him in getting the victory here last year. Sunday he will have Chad Knaus and Robbie Loomis and the whole Hendrick know-how working to get him to the front. This is Jimmie's year and he can smell it. This will be the race where he takes command and doesn't look back.

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Ryan Newman -- On the pole again, but I don't expect better than a top 10. This one could be trouble. Hoping he'll stay off the wall.
* Carl Edwards -- Spring race winner. Second on the grid. Loves this place. Hmmm. That translates into a top 5 from my perspective.
* Mark Martin -- He'll keep the Viagra Ford up front.
* Kyle Busch -- Young guns seem to do well here because they're fearless. He won the truck race Saturday in slam-bang fashion. Fearless.
* Tony Stewart -- Atlanta is a Gibbs-friendly track. Points leader has too much at stake to have a bad race here.
* Bobby Labonte -- Yeah, I know he starts 35th. See note for Stewart.
* Brian Vickers -- No. 25 and Atlanta always work well together, no matter who's driving.
* Jeff Gordon -- Bad memories of recent disastrous races here abound. But starting 24th is a nice spot from which to work his way forward.
* Kurt Busch -- Once again I have to pick him. This is supposed to be a good track for the Roushketeers. We'll see.

ALSO WATCHING: Greg Biffle (Keeping an eye on all Roushers.) ...Matt Kenseth (Ditto.) ...Dale Earnhardt Jr. (Former winner at this track. Could surprise.)... Kasey Kahne (One of the Young Guns who should do well here. I never know anymore with him.)

2005-10-24T13:44:00.000-07:00

Way to go, Gordo!

Guess I should have followed my original hunch and picked Jeff Gordon to win Martinsville. In getting the sweep of this year's races there -- his 7th victory there overall -- he did all the things that he could have and should have done the rest of the season that would have gotten him a spot in the Chase.

This was a fun race, despite its record 19 cautions, as short track races usually are. Most of my picks finished on the lead lap and I feel good about that.

GLENN’S TEN (6-for-10):

* Jimmie Johnson (winner) -- 3rd, Jimmie held his best stuff until the finish, but he never got to lead a lap and got passed by points leader Tony Stewart near the end of the race. Now trails Stewart by 15 points.

* Jeff Gordon -- 1st, Jeff had a winning sort of day, making slow but steady progress to the front from his 15th-place starting spot. The car never looked dominant, even when it finally got out front after staying out on a caution when everyone else came in to take tires. First win with new crew chief Steve Letarte. Fourth win of the season and 73rd overall, just three shy of Earnhardt Sr.

* Tony Stewart -- 2nd, From the pole, Tony led the most laps and appeared to have the car to beat all day -- until Gordon got the lead. He had a chance on the final restart with three laps to go, but he couldn't get underneath the #24 for the pass.

* Ryan Newman -- 10th, This is something like his 5th straight top 10 at this track. Keeps him third in the points.

* Rusty Wallace -- 19th, Rusty got screwed yet again in the final laps. He was running in the top 5 when he got booted from behind by Jeff Burton. It wasn't really Burton's fault, as Rusty inadvisably tried to go three wide in a spot where only two cars fit.

* Bobby Labonte -- 4th, Quietly had a good day. This is one of his best tracks, so that sort of figures.

* Kurt Busch -- 6th, Despite a one-lap penalty for rough driving after spinning out Michael Waltrip, Kurt worked his way back to a decent finish. But he loses more ground on Stewart, so I can't feel too bad.

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 18th, Little E had a decent run going until he got caught up in a wreck. He stayed on the lead lap but wasn't able to get back up front.

* Greg Biffle -- 20th, A long day for The Biff. He got caught a lap down and then proceeded to interfere with the race leaders for several laps while trying to make it up. Tony Stewart after the race called biffle an "idiot. Now I know why Kevin Harvick wanted to kill him."

* Ricky Rudd -- 11th, Just got edged out of a top 10. He was running second, easily the only guy who could have challenged Stewart for the lead at that point, when he became the innocent victim in a wreck that put him deep in the field. The car wasn't as good after that, but he did manage a respectable finish.

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Jeff Burton -- 5th, I came very close to picking him. Guess I should have taken him over Rusty Wallace.
* Jamie McMurray -- 7th, Should have known he would do well here. He's still vying for the 11th spot in the points.
* Denny Hamlin -- 8th, Another top 10 for the FedEd car and this hot young driver. Take note, this may be your rookie of the year in 2006.
* Kyle Busch -- 9th, And this will be your ROTY for 2005. Nice run.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Matt Kenseth -- 12th, Still clinging to life in the Chase, but fading.

* Kyle Petty -- 14th, Got as far forward as 8th. Looked strong most of the day, which is becoming less rare.

* Carl Edwards -- 26th, Average to awful day for the Roush drivers.

* Jeremy Mayfield -- 28th, Stick a fork in it, Jeremy. Your Chase is about over.

* Mark Martin -- 34th, Ditto.

Next week: We get to see how Atlanta Motor Speedway has recovered from tornado damage suffered over the summer.

ALSO WATCHING: Denny Hamlin (Qualified 5th in the FedEx car. This kid’s proving himself for next season, and he loves this track.)... Carl Edwards (Got stopped for speeding on his way to the Busch race Saturday. At least he wasn’t flagged for driving too slow in the fast lane!)... Matt Kenseth (Starts a Kenseth-like 25th. Could sneak his way in.)... Mark Martin (Will starting in a backup car at the rear of the field be a hindrance to Victory Lane? My guess: yes.)

2005-10-22T21:51:00.000-07:00

Week 32 -- Martinsville (Chase Round 6)

The focus on this week’s race at Martinsville will undoubtedly be on the first anniversary of the plane crash that claimed 10 members of Hendrick Motorsports. It was perhaps the greatest tragedy in the gNA$hCAR community since the death of Dale Earnhardt.

But as teams pause to reflect on Sunday, they’d better not miss the drivers in their rearview mirror. Those would be Hendrick teammates Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson, who although they aren’t starting on the front row will be drivers to watch in the Subway 500.

GLENN’S TEN:

* Jimmie Johnson (winner) -- The emotion tied up in this race is huge, and coupled with last week’s comeback win at Lowe’s, Jimmie is poised to make a championship run. A win here is possible (as he proved a year ago) and necessary if he hopes to keep ahead of some stiff competition. Hendrick drivers have proved they respond well to pressure.

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Jeff Gordon -- It’s been an abysmal season, but what better way to get it turned around for next year than a good day at a track where you’ve won five times?
* Tony Stewart -- Never bet against Smoke when he’s on the pole. If he doesn’t get the win, he’ll be a factor in the closing laps.
* Ryan Newman -- Won’t win, but will find a way to hang out in the top 10 all day.
* Rusty Wallace -- Chase motivates, and this is his last short track race ever. Think he’d like to win it?
* Bobby Labonte -- Another driver limping into the off-season, but Martinsville is a place where that could change -- if only for a weekend.
* Kurt Busch -- I hate that I have to keep picking him to make the show.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- The meek may not inherit the earth, but they could rise up to confound the Chasers on Sunday.
* Greg Biffle -- Will have to use some pit strategy and quick stops to work his way to the front because no one’s going to be letting him pass.
* Ricky Rudd -- Rudd’s been showing good stuff lately. If the car holds together, this could be a big day for him.

ALSO WATCHING: Denny Hamlin (Qualified 5th in the FedEx car. This kid’s proving himself for next season, and he loves this track.)... Carl Edwards (Got stopped for speeding on his way to the Busch race Saturday. At least he wasn’t flagged for driving too slow in the fast lane!)... Matt Kenseth (Starts a Kenseth-like 25th. Could sneak his way in.)... Mark Martin (Will starting in a backup car at the rear of the field be a hindrance to Victory Lane? My guess: yes.)

2005-10-17T01:30:00.000-07:00

Lowe's once again Johnsonville

Well, I said it was time for Jimmie Johnson to have a breakthrough race and he did just that Saturday evening at Lowe's Motor Speedway. While everyone else was battling tire issues, Jimmie overcame his own series of troubles to hold off Kurt Busch in a green-white-checkered shootout.

This race was marred by tire problems. Seemed like about every 20 laps someone else was smacking the wall, including the leader on at least two occasions. Despite the fact that some of my picks were caught up in the evening's disasters I still managed to have a decent night.

GLENN'S TEN (6-for-10... plus the winner!):

* Jimmie Johnson (winner) -- Winner! Let's not forget that the #48 had to start at the back of the pack because of engine work following qualifying. He also suffered a punctured tire -- under caution -- and crunched his front left fender after making contact with Ricky Rudd late in the race. That and the two-lap shootout at the finish could easily have sunk this team, but when you've won three straight at a track you consider your home, it gives you added incentive. Now you can make it four straight wins and five of the past six -- and a tie for the points lead.

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Ryan Newman -- 7th, Ryan overcame his early-laps flat tire and used two-tire pit strategy to get up to the front. Still managed to lose two spots in the points standings, but now he is just 17 points back, thanks to...

* Tony Stewart -- 25th, A hugely disappointing night for a driver who quite possibly could have won. Stewart was leading mid-race when the back end of the car came around and he smacked the wall. It looked as though he might lose a bundle more points than he did, but he limped the car to the finish and capitalized on high attrition to remain tied for the points lead.

* Kyle Busch -- 39th, This was looking like a great pick until he crashed just after grabbing the lead. Flat right-side tire.

* Carl Edwards -- 10th, Didn't hear much from Carl all night. Then he quietly made his way into the top 10 and stayed there.

* Greg Biffle -- 3rd, Told you he wouldn't stay in the back long. One of the three best cars on the track much of the night.

* Mark Martin -- 5th, These picks almost make me look like a genius. Well, Mark did his job anyway by finishing in the top 5 as predicted. He's right back in the hunt for the championship.

Rusty Wallace -- 24th, Shouldn't have been this low. He had a top 15 going until he wrecked going three-wide late in the race. The car wasn't severely damaged, but his chances for a good night were. Speeding on pit road during a stop for tires didn't help.

* Kurt Busch -- 2nd, Ack, phooey! Only thing worse than seeing Busch get a good finish is having to listen to him explain it. I always cringe when the NBC reporters corner Kurt with their microphones.

* Matt Kenseth -- 26th, Tore up the fender with a flat tire, wound up 10 laps down.

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Joe Nemechek -- 4th, Only Joe's mom thought he had a legit chance at winning. Good finish nonetheless.

* Casey Mears -- 6th, Just can't seem to get over the the top-5 hump. Must be that ugly pink breast cancer awareness paint scheme.

* Denny Hamlin -- 8th, Who? Don't worry, you'll have time to get to know him better next season if this performance is any indicator. One of the rotating FedEx team drivers, Denny succeeded in getting what I believe is the #11's first top 10 of the year -- and in just his second start.

* Ricky Rudd -- 9th, Got to lead a few laps late in the race. Still doesn't have the winning equipment, but Fatback's crewing has made the Iron Man competitive again.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Kyle Petty -- 15th, Man, Kyle's starting to make a habit of this.

* Elliott Sadler -- 27th, led the most laps from the pole. Didn't lead the last one.

* Jamie McMurray -- 29th, I almost picked him. Now I'm glad I didn't. Got tied up with Michael Waltrip.

* Michael Waltrip -- 30th, A terrible shame that Mikey crashed out after leading for a bit. This looked like he might be headed for at least a top 5 if not his first win at a non-restrictor track.

* Jeff Gordon -- 38th, King of Bad Luck finds it again, scraping the wall early in the race and being retired well before he should have been.

Next week: A track where Jeff Gordon can win if the car doesn't crap out early... Martinsville.

2005-10-15T12:25:00.000-07:00

Week 31 -- Lowe's (Chase Round #5)

This is the only Saturday night race in the Chase and frankly, I'm glad. Saturday night races are great during the summer, but come Autumn there are other things to fill my Saturday nights, like planning for Sunday's NFL picks... cruising the Internet... sleeping.

At least on the West Coast they finish with the gNA$hCAR action by bedtime, but out in North Carolina, where this race takes place, it will be close to midnight or (more likely) later.

So who will prevail in the dark on the newly resurfaced Lowe's Motor Speedway?

GLENN'S TEN:

* Jimmie Johnson (winner) -- It's time for Jimmie to do something in the Chase, and this is the track where it is most likely to happen. Jimmie has owned this track in recent seasons. I see him having a breakout night and visiting Victory Lane.

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Ryan Newman -- Won the Busch race last night and always runs well here.
* Tony Stewart -- Smoke in the dark. Have to like.
* Kyle Busch -- Nothing to lose and a track that favors those Hendrick Chevys.
* Carl Edwards -- Starts 8th. Says this is one of the tracks he likes. A lot like Atlanta, where he has already won.
* Greg Biffle -- How did he end up starting 21st? He won't stay there long.
* Mark Martin -- One of his best tracks. Maybe not a win, but top 5 seems likely.
* Rusty Wallace -- I'm finally giving Rusty his due. So what if he's starting 27th?
* Kurt Busch -- Must I pick him? Yes.
* Matt Kenseth -- Perhaps we can sneak him into the show.

ALSO WATCHING: With 9 of my 10 picks Chasers, there aren't a lot of drivers left to watch, but I'll go for Jeff Gordon (should run well here, but hasn't lately)... Elliott Sadler (starts on the pole, but I'm not convinced)... Brian Vickers (like Hendrick drivers' chances here)... and Jamie McMurray (site of first and only career victory three years ago).

2005-10-09T21:50:00.000-07:00

Martin wins Kansas yawner

Think I'm being too harsh in that assessment? I'm not yawning because Mark Martin won a race he deserved to win; I'm yawning because mile-and-a-half ovals in general make for dull race, and because this one in particular reached new depths in dullness. On a scale of 1 to 10 on the snoozer scale I'd rate this one about an 8.5. No passing, few surprises, and a predictable finish with the Roush cars nabbing four of the top five spots. Is it any wonder at all that gNA$hCAR is planning to limit the number of teams allowed in multi-car operations starting next year? Nothing against Roush. Those guys have their act together and are clearly the class of the field this season. But who wants to see a Chase with nothing but Roush cars -- or Hendrick, DEI, Penske or anyone else for that matter -- which is where the free market eventually will lead if nothing is changed. You'll wind up with two or three mega corporations owning all the 43 teams. Then why bother running the races at all? You could do what they did today, which was basically watch the Roush parade around Kansas Speedway from green to checkers, then shell out the championship checks to the big corps to let them buy yet more teams.

I didn't intend for this to be a rant, but that's one of the dangers of watching boring racing. Leaves the mind free to wander. I expect boring races from my local dirt and asphalt tracks, but not from the entertainment geniuses who have built gNA$hCAR into the multi-billion dollar operation it has become. But enough. I have to review my picks.

GLENN'S TEN (7-for-10... and I could have done better if I'd added Rusty Wallace.):

* Carl Edwards (winner) -- 3rd, The car was getting better toward the end, but he didn't have enough time to run down his teammates. I didn't realize until today that Kansas is sort of like Carl's home track, as he is from Missouri.

* Ryan Newman -- 23rd, Couldn't make good on his pledge to avoid wreckage. He got sandwiched against the wall by a spinning Brandon Ash, who was punted from behind by Dale Earnhardt Jr. Ryan was behind the 8 ball from the start, having been sent to the rear of the field for changing a transmission. The car never looked very good, but the crash sealed the dismal day. Still second in points, but lost 71 of them.

* Matt Kenseth -- 5th, Got shuffled back for a while after leading most of the first 60 laps when he developed a tire vibration. Got back together in pit stops and fought to a great finish.

* Jeff Gordon -- 10th, Just squeaked into the top 10. A better run than many he's had lately. After starting 3rd it looked like he would grab the lead and run with it for a while. But the car started fading, as it always seems to do, and for a long time he was running in the high teens. This isn't where he should be running, but it's a start.

* Greg Biffle -- 2nd, He had a shot at catching Martin, but lap traffic got in the way.

* Tony Stewart -- 4th, By finishing here, other Chasers make little or no progress toward the top spot today. Tony's loose and having fun.

* Kurt Busch -- 14th, More trouble for the defending champ. He got caught a lap down, but managed to make it up and got back quite a few sports he lost. One Roush car not in the show.

* Joe Nemechek -- 20th, Finished about where the car deserved to. Joe two-tire stopped his way into the top 10, with predictable results.

* Mark Martin -- 1st, I can't fault Mark for winning his 35th victory in such dominant fashion. I just wish he wasn't the guy in Victory Lane. First points win since Dover last year. He thinks it doesn't matter because after last week he is too far out of first to make a bid for the championship. I think that's just four times as runner-up talking. If Tony Stewart suffers a bad race it will change the whole dynamic.

* Jimmie Johnson -- 6th, Jimmie gets the good finish he needed... and still loses ground to the points leader.

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Rusty Wallace -- 7th, As usual, I counted him out when I shouldn't have.

* Casey Mears -- 8th, Remember him? Yeah, still likes to finish 7th or worse when he does make the top 10.

* Ricky Rudd -- 9th, Backed up last year's 2nd place finish.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Ken Schrader -- 17th, Ran up in the top 10 for quite a while.

* Dale Jarrett -- 38th, Not what you want to do after pulling a huge victory.

Next week: The last Saturday night action of the season as the Chase heads to the unpredictable racing surface at Lowe's.

2005-10-09T10:18:00.000-07:00

Week 30 -- Kansas (Chase Round 4)

I don't have a good read on this race. Kansas is a place where the Hendrick drivers had been pretty good, but recently we've seen some oddball finishes such as Joe Nemechek's close win over Ricky Rudd a year ago. And I look at the starting lineup for today and see some unusual presences in Scott Wimmer and Kevin Lepage, which makes me think this will be a wild race.

So I'll give it my best shot at predictions:

GLENN'S TEN:

* Carl Edwards (winner) -- Carl rolls off 5th and has been sort of a wild card in the Chase thus far. He escaped with good-enough finishes in the first three Chase races to be in serious contention for a title, and now he says he's coming to tracks where he and the Roushers do well at. This place seems like one where Edwards should be able to win.

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Ryan Newman -- Won here two years ago. Says he won't wreck this year, which took him out of contention in 2004.
* Matt Kenseth -- Starts on the pole, which usually means he's in for a big day.
* Jeff Gordon -- One of these days he's gonna start to click with his new crew chief and start winning again at tracks where he should.
* Greg Biffle -- Figure that Chase contenders will step up.
* Tony Stewart -- See note for Biffle. Starts 9th.
* Kurt Busch -- Could he possibly suffer another downer of a day?
* Joe Nemechek -- Car not as good as the one that won here last year, but I figure if you know how to win in a place you've got a good chance of at least making the show.
* Mark Martin -- Quietly puts together solid finishes (when not racing at Talladega),
* Jimmie Johnson -- Has to step it up after disastrous say last week.

ALSO WATCHING: Elliott Sadler (Starts second, but will he be able to run well?)... Dale Jarrett (How will last week's win affect his future performance?)... Jeremy Mayfield (Always underrated, but he's still in the hunt for the championship.)... Rusty Wallace (Starts 33rd, but will he use strategy to get to the front?)

2005-10-03T23:47:00.000-07:00

Jarrett stuns them all at 'Dega

Now there's a country seldom heard from! DJ said his car was good before the start of Sunday's wreck fest, and he made good on that statement by grabbing the lead as the final caution flag flew. It was great to see this old veteran back in Victory Lane after a drought that began after Rockingham in February 2003.

Wreck fest doesn't begin to describe what we saw at Talladega. Nearly half the field was in tatters at the end of this one, including several of the early favorites to win it.

GLENN'S TEN (4-for-10... Great, all things considered):

* Jimmie Johnson (winner) -- 31st, Jimmie made headlines, but not the way he would have liked. He was blamed for triggering the Lap 20 crash that took out pole sitter Elliott Sadler, fellow Chaser Mark Martin and both the DEI cars. Jimmie suffered some damage himself, which was compounded later when his tire popped and ripped of hir rear quarter panel. Jimmie spent some time behind the wall and hobbled home. Another dismal day at 'Dega for the #48.

* Rusty Wallace -- 25th, Suffered some damage in the Lap 66 crash. Took a hit in the points.

* Kurt Busch -- 8th, Trouble found Kurt once again, only this time he was able to recover from it to post a decent finish. He blew a tire while leading. At least he didn't wreck the car.

* Brian Vickers -- 6th, I had my doubts about this pick after finding out that Brian had to start 27th. But he was one of the few drivers who stayed out of the problems around him.

* Ryan Newman -- 4th, Penske cars both looked good. Ryan ran his best race here ever Sunday. He had a shot at the win but got shuffled back. The caution flag froze the field, taking away the extra half lap that might have helped him get back toward the front. Just 4 points out of the lead...

* Mark Martin -- 41st, Martin's day ended in the Lap 20 crash, his car suffering some of the heaviest damage as he coasted into the wall with his hood flapping in the breeze. He's bitter about the rules that lead to tight packs of cars that often lead to the Big One. He wants the fans to do something to change this style of racing. But the fans love it (me included) and aren't likely to rise up against gNA$hCAR to protest.

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 40th, Day ruined by the Lap 20 crash.

* Michael Waltrip -- 42nd, Too many of my picks finished in the 40s, thanks to being in the wrong place at the wrong time on Lap 20.

* Greg Biffle -- 27th, Never led a lap. Finished 18 laps off the pace.

* Tony Stewart -- 2nd, Tony had what looked like the car to beat, leading the most laps in dominant style, and somebody beat him. But the strong finish puts him back atop the points standings.

REST O FTHE TOP 10:

* Dale Jarrett -- 1st, Way to go, DJ! Car owner Robert Yates was practically in tears over this one. Dale has been reunited with former crew chief Todd Parrott, which has already paid dividends in just one race.

* Matt Kenseth -- 3rd, I doubted that he would avoid calamity.

* Carl Edwards -- 5th, Another great finish for Carl has put him in the hunt for the Cup.

* Sterling Marlin -- 7th, Often excels at the restrictor tracks.

* Joe Nemechek -- 9th, Benefited from the high attrition.

* Kevin Harvick -- 10th, Finally gets another top 10.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Jamie McMurray -- 12th, Looked destined to get a win or top 5 but got hung out to dry in the final mad dash to the finish.

* Kyle Petty -- 24th, Crahsed on the final lap to bring out the caution, then limped his ruined car across the finish line to great applause.

* Scott Riggs -- 36th, Took the day's wildest ride on Lap 66 when the car barrel rolled.

* Jeff Gordon -- 37th, Bad luck continues. He was caught up in the crash involving Riggs.

Next week... We travel somewhere over the rainbow to Kansas Motor Speedway.

2005-10-03T23:16:00.000-07:00

Dover recap

One of the hazards of taking a week to actually get around to watching one of these races is the possibility that you will find out the results before you watch the tape. I was traveling through New Mexico and Arizona when the Dover race took place, and between ESPN, USA Today and NASCAR.COM I picked up enough little snippets of info that probably would have tainted my predictions, so I can't say that my results accurately reflect what I would have predicted if I'd made the call before race day.

I tried to remain true to my heart in making these late picks, but I had hunches about Jimmie Johnson and Mark Martin that sort of spoiled the suspense. Here's a quick look at how I fared:

GLENN'S TEN (6-for-10... For what it's worth):

* Tony Stewart (winner) -- 18th, Lousy day for Tony. This was a brand new car and didn't perform well. He wound up two laps down.

* Ryan Newman -- 5th, Ryan racks up his second top 5 of the Chase. Just 12 points out of the lead.

* Rusty Wallace -- 3rd, A great duel with Mark Martin down the stretch to hang onto the position. Second in points.

* Jimmie Johnson -- 1st, USA Today had his car pictured with a Friday preview of the Talladega race. I figured that wasn't a coincidence. I would have picked him in the top 10 regardless, but I don't know that I wouldn't have picked him to win.

* Kyle Busch -- 2nd, Jimmie had to fight off his teammate to the checkers in the green-white-checkered finish.

* Kurt Busch -- 23rd, This makes two straight races in which the defending champ has performed poorly. After leading the most laps, Kurt suffered a flat tire under green and then compounded his woes by speeding on pit road.

* Jeremy Mayfield -- 7th, A quiet day that ends with a solid finish.

* Greg Biffle -- 13th, The Biff recovered well from problems that put him a lap down at one point.

* Mark Martin -- 4th, I caught a peek of something on NASCAR.COM that led me to believe Mark won this race. I would have picked him top 10 regardless. He was in the top 5 most of the day. Two tires on the final pit stop was a bad call.

* Jeff Gordon -- 37th, Jeff's car was getting better as the race went along, but then he wrecked. Typical bad luck.

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Elliott Sadler -- 6th, Two-tire strategy played out well.

* Kyle Petty -- 8th(!!), A very rare top 10.

* Carl Edwards -- 9th, Chaser came from 32nd on the grid to notch the top 10.

* Casey Mears -- 10th, Pit strategy paid off.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 31st, Little E put himself in the hole early when he thought his brakes failed and spent 7 laps in the pits.

* Matt Kenseth -- 35th, Had a tire problem and tagged the wall hard.

Next week... It's already happened, but high speed hijinx at Talladega.

2005-10-02T21:16:00.000-07:00

Week 29 -- Talladega (Chase Round 3)

Still playing catch-up, but I wanted to post my "predictions" for the restrictor plate race before I post my recap of Week 28 at Dover. The race has already happened as I write this, but I can make a few educated guesses as to the outcome.

GLENN'S TEN:

* Jimmie Johnson (winner) -- Coming off his big win at Dover last week, Jimmie could do a back-to-back if he gets the benefit of Hendrick's know-how at the restrictor tracks. Jeff Gordon has owned the plate races the past two seasons, but with his current problems and JJ's need for strong finishes to stay in contention, I think Jimmie will get the breaks and make it to the Winner's Circle for the first time in a plate race.

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Rusty Wallace -- Will find a way into the top 10.
* Kurt Busch -- Has had horrible luck the first two races of the Chase. Will turn it around today and could challenge for the win.
* Brian Vickers -- Another Hendrick car that has been good in plate races but hasn't caught a break.
* Ryan Newman -- This has always been a weak spot in the Alltel team's program. I think the pressure of the Chase will see him step it up for a top 10.
* Mark Martin -- Somehow he'll find a way.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- Back with Tony Eury Jr. will make the difference in keeping him up front.
* Michael Waltrip -- DEI doesn't dominate here these days, but don't tell Mikey, who has victory here. All of his four wins have been on plate tracks.
* Greg Biffle -- Roush drivers always a threat to have a big day.
* Tony Stewart -- He'll hang out at the back until the final 20 laps.

ALSO WATCHING: Kasey Kahne and Jeremy Mayfield (Teammates could surprise)... Kyle Busch (Inexperience still might be a factor)... Scott Riggs (#10 often runs well at this track)... Kevin harvick (Which Harvick will show up today? Will his car remain mechanically sound to the finish?)... Jeff Gordon (I didn't quite pick him, but given all his past success here I just can't cast him aside so easily.)

2005-10-01T22:52:00.000-07:00

Week 28 -- Dover (Chase race #2)

I'm still a week behind. Before I watch the tape I wanted to post my predictions (sans comments):

GLENN'S TEN:

* Tony Stewart (winner) -- Wants to get a win here soon to keep the momentum going. Dover a place where it could happen.

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Ryan Newman
* Rusty Wallace
* Jimmie Johnson
* Kyle Busch
* Kurt Busch
* Jeremy Mayfield
* Greg Biffle
* Mark Martin
* Jeff Gordon

ALSO WATCHING: Kasey Kahne and Dale Earnhardt Jr.

2005-10-01T18:08:00.000-07:00

Newman takes Chase Round 1

This is pretty old news now, but I have been vacationing for two weeks and taped the race to see it when I got home, and the wait was definitely worth it. I'm a huge Ryan Newman fan and have been down much of this year about his performance on the track. He barely squeaked into the Chase, but at Loudon he proved that he deserves to be here.

I'm trying to make up for lost time, so here's an abbreviated recap of my picks...

GLENN'S TEN (6-for-10... a good day):

* Jimmie Johnson (winner) -- 8th, This is what he'll need to do the next nine races.

* Kurt Busch -- 35th, The first casualty of the race, put into the wall when Scott Riggs got loose. Don't count him out of the championship yet.

* Jeff Gordon -- 14th, New crew chief didn't get him a top 10, although he ran near the front for a while. Will be interesting to watch how the chemistry of this team gels over the final nine races.

* Ryan Newman -- 1st, Ryan shows he doesn't have to win the pole to have a winning day. His late-race duel with Tony Stewart was some great racing, and it was Ryan who prevailed after getting passed for the lead with about five to go. I'm psyched.

* Tony Stewart -- 2nd, Tony had perhaps the car to beat until he clipped Dale Earnhardt Jr. when the latter was pitting. Loss of aerodynamics probably kept him from winning.

* Matt Kenseth -- 3rd, Stuck lugnut set him back, but didn't keep him down.

* Greg Biffle -- 4th, A good start to the Chase.

* Mark Martin -- 7th, Slugged it out with Rusty Wallace but couldn't get the 6th spot in the final laps. Had Kurt Busch's winning car from Richmond.

* Kyle Busch -- 27th, Got into Kasey Kahne and then got roughed up in a retaliatory move by the #9. Then he wrecked on his own a few laps later.

* Kasey Kahne -- 38th, Kyle Busch took him out inadvertently, but Kasey's "payback" was uncalled for.

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 5th, Reunited with Tony Eury as crew chief. Seems to have worked this time.

* Rusty Wallace -- 6th, Solid performance. I don't give him enough credit.

* Jeff Burton -- 9th, My dark horse gets a top 10.

* Kevin Harvick -- 10th, He had a good car, but he had bad pit strategy.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Robby Gordon -- 37th, Had an altercation with Michael Waltrip and blamed Mikey for putting him into the wall. Threw his helmet at the NAPA Chevy and used a certain four-letter word to describe Mikey's actions. Same behavior cost Dale Earnhardt Jr. cash and points a year ago. They could dock Robby, but he's so far behind in the standings what good would it do?

Next week: Can Newman make it two in a row at Dover?

2005-09-16T17:16:00.000-07:00

Week 27 -- New Hampshire (Chase Round 1)

The fallout in the wake of Richmond has already started. This week we saw Jeff Gordon's crew chief resign after his driver failed to make the field of 10 with a chance to win this year's Nextel Cup. There are drivers who, like Gordon, will be throwing everything out the window on the remainder of the season and starting to work on strategy for next year. That is the aspect of the Chase that adds spice to gNA$hCAR's new format. Forget the fact that you have the 10 best drivers who are in the hunt for the title and who will be going all out at Loudon this Sunday; now you also have the also-rans with nothing to lose. Ought to make this week all the more entertaining.

This will be my last post for a couple of weeks as I will be away from the Internet for a while, so I will recap this race and next week's event at Dover when I return. In the meantime, here are the Loudin predictions:

GLENN'S TEN:

* Jimmie Johnson (winner) -- OK, the Chase is on and it's time for Jimmie to turn up the fire at a track where he has won before. JJ is long overdue for a win, and what better time to get one than the first race of the championship playoff.

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Kurt Busch -- Has been salivating over a return to the spot where he launched last year's championship drive with a victory. He could win this one too, but I'm going to bet against him.
* Jeff Gordon -- First race under his new crew chief and everyone's going to want to shine. Jeff knows how to drive this track, but he has looked plain awful in recent appearances here. He won't win, but he will be a factor for a change.
* Ryan Newman -- Ryan got his first career win here in the rain three seasons ago. He'd better step it up if he hopes to remain in the Chase through Homestead-Miami.
* Tony Stewart -- It's showtime, which is when Smoke seems to do his best.
* Matt Kenseth -- He just keeps getting better. Seems focused, which is a good thing.
* Greg Biffle -- Was mid-pack in practice, but he'[ll get it together on race day.
* Mark Martin -- More solidly in the Chase than he was a year ago. He's just out there having fun and the results show it.
* Kyle Busch -- The kid's improving rapidly. Young guns seem to do well here. Johnson and Newman both excelled here in their rookie seasons.
* Kasey Kahne -- See my note on Kyle Busch.

AND WHAT ABOUT? Rusty Wallace (Fastest in practice, but can he score the good finishes now that the pressure's on?)... Jeremy Mayfield (Stronger championship run this year than last, but this track was the start of his undoing in 2004)... Carl Edwards (Not counting him out yet, but he struggled in practice. Wait for Atlanta.).

ALSO WATCHING: Jeff Burton and Robby Gordon, who are past winners here. I give Jeff the nod as a dark horse.

2005-09-10T22:48:00.000-07:00

Let the Chase begin

Well, so much for my theory that Dodges would rule and that Chevys had extra incentive at tonight's Richmond race. It was Fords that stole the show, and specifically the Fords of Roush racing. That would seem only fitting, however, when one considers that all five of the Roush drivers are in the Chase. Let's see... that's a 50 percent chance that Jack Roush will score his third champion in as many years.

This is getting me more depressed. Time for the postmortem...

GLENN'S TEN (6-for-10... And it could have been even better 8-/ ):

* Kasey Kahne (Winner) -- 8th, Ran in the top 10 all night and led briefly, but wasn't one of the elite.

* Jeremy Mayfield -- 6th, This just seems to be a good track for Evernham and company.

* Jamie McMurray -- 40th, For the second year in a row, Jamie blows his Chase dreams on the final night. He found his way into the top 10, but as things got desperate in the final 50 laps he made a couple of ill-advised passes. One of them caused him to slide up the hill and get into Tony Raines, who slid into Ricky Rudd and caused Rudd to crash. McMurray continued on, banging with Raines, and took himself out seconds later when he spun into the inside wall. Chase dreams up in smoke.

* Ricky Rudd -- 38th, Ricky was robbed! He had a top 10 sorta night happening when the McMurray incident ended things prematurely.

* Matt Kenseth -- 2nd, As I predicted, a good run. Watch out for Matt in the Chase.

* Tony Stewart -- 7th, Another top 10. What is that now, 11 straight? Tony leads the pack going into the money round.

* Jeff Burton -- 18th, How did he manage to finish here? This looked like a bust of a pick when he went down a lap early. But he managed to eventually get that lap back and hung in for an OK night.

* Ryan Newman -- 12th, Flyin' Ryan got a gift when McMurray crashed out. Still, he had a nail-biter of a night that saw him barely sneak into the Chase in the 10th spot. Wonder now if he can do a Kurt Busch and parlay the 600 points he gains from the field reset into a championship. I can hope.

* Kurt Busch -- 1st, Why is it that I start yawning every time KB talks about his team's work ethic? OK, the guy has a dominant organization behind him, but he's so dang boring. Ah well, at least the victims of Hurricane Katrina benefit from his victory.

* Rusty Wallace -- 5th, This was the "quietly decent night" I forecasted. He will start the Chase in third -- 10 points out -- which is probably as close as he's been to a championship since he won one in '89.

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Greg Biffle -- 3rd, OK, I shouldn't have doubted him.

* Kyle Busch -- 4th, The only one of the Hendrick drivers to have a good night. Maybe no one told him that Hendrick cars have sucked here lately.

* Terry Labonte -- 9th, A double-red letter day: Texas Terry finishes in the top 10 AND the FedEx car does too. Would this be the #11 team's best finish of the year?

* Kevin Harvick -- 10th, I nearly picked him. He led most of the first 200 laps of the race before the car faded down the stretch. May not have ended with the best car, but he had the best-looking paint scheme with country rocker Gretchen Wilson sprawled across the hood.

OTHER NOTABLES (AND NOT-SO-NOTABLES):

* Mark Martin -- 13th, Recovered nicely after a failing tire brought him into the pits early and left him running near the tail of the pack. Starts 6h in the Chase next week.

* Elliott Sadler -- 17th, Needed a stronger run to have a shot at knocking Newman out of the top 10. Spin on the track didn't help.

* Carl Edwards -- 21st, Rookie makes the Chase in his first attempt.

* Jimmie Johnson -- 25th, Good thing he didn't have to have this race to make the field. Car spent much of the night in the low 30s.

* Jeff Gordon -- 30th, All too predictable. Started 6th, but immediately fell back and then the handling went away. This is becoming the rule rather than the exception. Jeff and company have a lot of soul searching to do before Daytona '06. I think we may finally be seeing the effects of that plane crash in Martinsville a year ago that took out some of Hendrick's best and brightest. All the organization's teams have seemed to struggle this season, with Busch the possible exception of late. I wonder if Robbie Loomis will be job hunting at the end of this season. There will be some serious changes coming in the offseason, particularly if Johnson doesn't do well in the Chase. Stay tuned.

* Robby Gordon -- 35th, Served a 5-lap penalty for rough driving. On his bad nights he's a menace to society.

* Ganassi cars -- Casey Mears was the standard bearer, finishing 23rd. McMurray (40th), Sterling Marlin (41st), and the future Sterling (David Stremme, 42nd) all had equally futile finishes.

Next week... The Chasers get down to business at Loudon.

2005-09-10T14:32:00.000-07:00

Week 26 -- Richmond

Time's up! No more monkeying around! It's either make the Chase tonight or go home. Well, maybe not go home, but it sure will be a long couple of months for those who almost-but-didn't make it into the top 10. And I have a fear that a couple of guys I would like to be Chase-ing next week won't be.

This is Richmond, where Dodges rule. This is the Chevy Rock and Roll 400, where drivers of the sponsor's cars will have extra incentive to do well. Let's see how we do.

GLENN'S TEN:

* Kasey Kahne (Winner) -- Why? Kasey got his first and only win here in the spring and has absolutely nothing to lose by going all out tonight. His teammate, Jeremy Mayfield, won this race last year. Ganassi seems to have something for this place, which as you will see in a moment spells bad news for some other drivers.

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Jeremy Mayfield -- Just because. He runs well here, unfortunately.
* Jamie McMurray -- Jamie missed out on the Chase by 11 points in this race last year. He'll just squeak in. Besides, he's in a Dodge. However, he is starting 32nd...
* Ricky Rudd -- OK, so he's a Ford guy, but he's good at the short trcks and has been running well lately.
* Matt Kenseth -- I'm hoping not, but he seems destined to be a Chaser. This will seal the deal.
* Tony Stewart -- Smoke under the lights. Gotta like him here.
* Jeff Burton -- Improving. Might surprise someone.
* Ryan Newman -- Forced to a backup car that didn't qualify as fast as his starter car had been in practice. He will make the top 10, but it won't be enough to get him into the Chase.
* Kurt Busch -- Always a short track threat.
* Rusty Wallace -- Could have a quietly decent night.

Some other guys I'll be watching: Jeff Gordon (The Chase ends here tonight. Richmond has been a nightmare track for Jeff. He either wins or he crashes out. I'm predicting the latter)... Dale Earnhardt Jr. (Not totally counting him out. He starts 29th, but might find his way to the front)... Kevin Harvick (Starting on the pole guarantees nothing. Trouble likes to find him)... Hendrick and Roush drivers (I'm predicting an off night for all the Hendrick cars, including Jimmie Johnson and last week's winner, Kyle Busch. A track where they should all run well but won't. As for Roush, most of these guys have a Chase spot locked up tight. Only ones who don't are Kenseth and Carl Edwards. Edwards will run well enough to get in but won't make the top 10.)

2005-09-06T03:15:00.000-07:00

Busch wins! (No, the other Busch)

Looks like I missed the boat on Kyle Busch this week. I didn't pick him because despite being good in his best races, he's been very bad in his clinkers. I didn't think this would be a good week, and boy was I wrong. Kyle dominated at the front once the Roush parade of leaders got broken up.

Not a lot else to say about this race (other than comments below) except that it was lacking in drama until about the final 20 laps. California Speedway may seat a lot more fans than Darlington, but as a substitute for the now-defunct Southern 500 that was a Labor Day tradition until two years ago, it is a yawner. The NBC crew struggles on its best days to be entertaining, but BP, Wally and Bill seemed to be seeking ways to fill dead air more than usual. There are only so many times they can take us "through the field" before we want to shout "Show us a danged commercial already!" Oh yeah, there were plenty of those too. Maybe it is the 500-mile format. If they kept it to 400 miles I might not have to pry my eyes open for the finish.

GLENN'S TEN (6-for-10... A decent night -- for me, at least):

* Greg Biffle (winner) -- 2nd, Biff just came up short against Kyle Busch. Nothing to be ashamed of here, as he's back up to second in points.

* Jimmie Johnson -- 16th, Jimmie seemed to suffer the Jeff Gordon Curse (more on that in a moment) at the end of this one. I think he got beat by guys who popped on four tires on the final round of pit stops.

* Joe Nemechek -- 10th, Wasn't the win he might have had back in February, but he did just make the show. The car wasn't worth much most of the evening.

* Kasey Kahne -- 6th, Can't believe that Kasey never led a lap in this one. The car looked top-fiveish all night. There were a few cars that were stronger.

* Brian Vickers -- 3rd, Vickers is getting closer to a first win. I shouldn't be surprised that he and Kyle both did well here this time, after they both met with bad luck in February.

* Elliott Sadler -- 17th, The car never looked very strong, but this finish could have been better. Chase possibilities look about done.

* Kurt Busch -- 12th, Kurt looked like he had the intention of leading a lot of laps early. But the car went away in the later runs. Spinning through the grass in the front stretch didn't help matters any.

* Ryan Newman -- 18th, Ryan needed a better finish to keep his position in the Chase picture. Now he finds himself 11th, 1 point behind Jamie McMurray.

* Matt Kenseth -- 7th, I have to root against Matt because his success of late is killing the chances of Newman and Jeff Gordon to make the Chase. He started farthest back of all the Roush cars (23rd) and still managed to lead some laps. (All the Roushers did). A few cars slipped by him in the green-white-checker finish, but he still sits comfortably positioned for the Chase in 8th.

* Carl Edwards -- 4th, Looked to be coming on in the waning laps. An untimely flat tire earlier in the race while he was leading forced him to pick his way through traffic, which probably hurt his finish.

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Kyle Busch -- 1st, A well-deserved win makes him the youngest in the history of gNA$hCAR to find his way to Victory Lane. Won't be the last time.

* Tony Stewart -- 5th, To think that I doubted him. Smoke held little back in grabbing the lead. Couldn't get there for the win.

* Jamie McMurray -- 8th, This was about the only time all evening he was in the top 10. Late tire change made the difference. But can he hold on to 10th in points next week?

* Ricky Rudd -- 9th, Another good showing. This team is clearly becoming a contender once again.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Mark Martin -- 11th, All the Roush drivers led a lap or two. Mark is in solid shape for the Chase.

* Sterling Marlin -- 19th, Was in the top 10 most of the night, but lost a few spots in the final sequence.

* Jeff Gordon -- 21st, The Jeff Gordon Curse rears its ugly head again. Jeff said it best during the post-race interview: "We sucked tonight." Can't argue with that. He rolled off 6th and looked good initially, but then the usual handling problems cropped up. Jeff got loose and lost a bundle of positions. He was running in the 30s for a time. The crew got the car dialed in, or so it seemed, as the race wore on. But the final 50 laps found the DuPont Chevy sliding steadily backward. So much for fighting his way back into the Chase picture. Now Jeff has to find a way to scoop up about 30 points on Newman and McMurray next week or he's going to be watching the New York banquet on TV instead of from the head table.

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 38th, The engine blew up in spectacular fashion on lap 211, ending his bid for the Chase.

* J.J. Yeley -- 39th, Doesn't matter who they stick in the FedEx car, they still get crappy finishes. J.J. brought out the first caution of the race on the first lap.

Next week: Go or go home. Richmond will fill in the final pieces of the Chase puzzle.

2005-09-04T02:41:00.000-07:00

Week 25 -- Fontana (part 2)

Happy Labor Day weekend. Many of us will be out enjoying the holiday, but at least a few guys will be laboring long and hard Sunday evening as they try to race their way into the Chase at California Speedway. This is a wide, fast track that should favor the teams with plenty of horsepower. Look for fuel mileage and engine problems to play decisive rolls in this 250-lapper under the lights.

GLENN'S TEN:

* Greg Biffle (winner) -- Biff's overdue for a win, and what better way to break the drought than at the track where he was among the dominant cars in the spring race, finding his way to the first of his five victories so far this season. He needs to turn up the heat for the start of the Chase, so there is plenty of incentive.

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Jimmie Johnson -- Used to be J.J. owned this place. I think he'll be a shoo-in for a top 5.
* Joe Nemechek -- Front Row Joe had this race in the bag until bad luck took him out late, as it has so often this year. I'm going to bet that the team won't screw it up twice.
* Kasey Kahne -- Finally, a track where he has plenty of room to keep away from 4-wheeled obstacles.
* Brian Vickers -- Sat on the front row here in February.
* Elliott Sadler -- Chase hopes rapidly fading, but he knows how to get a good finish in Fontana.
* Kurt Busch -- Close to home. Ought to do well here.
* Ryan Newman -- Pressure's on to perform well after last week's early exit in the Dale Jarrett incident.
* Matt Kenseth -- Seems like a man on a mission.
* Carl Edwards -- Starts on the pole, won the Busch race Saturday night, and finished 5th here in February.

OH-OH: Jeff Gordon (Needs to finish well here and should, based on his practice runs. But his pattern has been to stink at his best tracks. Perhaps a top 15.)... Tony Stewart (No pressure until the Chase starts, so I'm not expecting much.)... Mark Martin (Almost made my picks, but not all the Rousch drivers can make the top 10... can they?)... Rusty Wallace (Almost picked him too. This is a good track for him, where he has won a couple of times. But starting too far back.)... Kevin Harvick (Has given up after last week's disappointment.)

2005-08-29T00:06:00.000-07:00

Still Chasin'

So it would appear that I was a bit premature in writing off the seaons of Matt Kenseth and Jeff Gordon several weeks ago. Both finished well enough Saturday at Bristol to put themselves back into contention for the Chase, which begins after the Richmond race in less than two weeks.

Gordon hung tough to get a top 10 and sneak into the 10th spot in the points standings. Kenseth won the race -- his first since Las Vegas a year ago -- and is just 11 points out of 10th. Nice to see the champs step up when the going gets tough.

I stepped it up too on Saturday, collecting more than half of my picks in the top 10. There were a couple of low lights, but I'll get to those soon enough.

GLENN'S TEN (6-for-10... a good night!)

* Jeff Gordon (winner) -- 6th, Jeff, as has so often been the case this season, did not have a dominant car. He hung around in the top 5 for a bit until the second round of pit stops when he got out ahead of Kenseth and managed to lead for a while. But the car was rarely to his liking, and for a time he was mired in mid-pack banging fenders with teammate Brian Vickers. He got the car adjusted well enough that he made up several spots on the final green-flag run. Just enough to get back into the top 10, but will he be able to stay there now?

* Rusty Wallace -- 5th, Rusty got to lead some laps in his final Bristol race. The car wasn't strong enough to win on old tires after he stayed out when everyone else came in.

* Ryan Newman -- 39th, Low light number one: Newman had a good car. Maybe not good enough to win, but surely a top 10. Unfortunately, he got into it on track with Dale Jarrett. He appeared to bump Dale unintentionally around lap 200, and then about 100 laps later they met up again when Newman tried to lap Jarrett's slower car. It seemed pretty clear from the replay that Dale body slammed Newman and put both of them into the wall. Ryan wasn't able to continue, which drops him to 9th in the points and precariously close to not making the field. Hopefully he can rally from this, as California and Richmond are two of his better tracks.

* Kurt Busch -- 10th, This was a new car and apparently not as good as the one that got him his wins here. It was good enough for me.

* Tony Stewart -- 8th, Tony has nothing to gain right now from pushing for wins. This car wasn't good enough to win anyhow, but he hung around in the teens until cars up front had trouble, then took fresh tires on the final round of pit stops.

* Kevin Harvick -- 37th, Low light number 2: Happy probably isn't very happy with Dale Jarrett and Ryan Newman. He had a decent car, but was the innocent victim in the Newman/Jarrett tiff. He tried to dive to the apron and couldn't avoid Newman's car which slid right into him. This all but kills Harvick's chances of making the chase.

* Elliott Sadler -- 13th, The two-tire strategy got him up front briefly, but it didn't help him stay in the top 10 when other guys took fresh tires on the final pit stops.

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 9th, How many times can one driver be the beneficiary of the free pass? Junior got three of them early in the race, then got his car working well enough to make the show. He was on the march, but needed probably another 150 laps to get to the front.

* Greg Biffle -- 3rd, Another decent night for the Roush cars. I think Biff may have been penalized for speeding in the pits, which he blamed for not finishing better.

* Kyle Busch -- 33rd, Not even Johnny Bravo on the hood could keep his car out of trouble. He spent about 50 laps behind the wall.

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Matt Kenseth -- 1st, He proved the rare pole wasn't just a fluke. Matt dominated the race and deserved every moment of that victory lane celebration.

* Jeff Burton -- 2nd, Another guy who would have deserved the chance to celebrate had he been able to catch Kenseth. It's been nearly five years since Burton's last win. This was easily the best run he's had in many moons.

* Ricky Rudd -- 4th, I'm starting to think Ricky's for real again. The short tracks are his thing, and Richmond in two weeks will give him one more chance to shine. He dodged a couple of bullets on the track and the car didn't suffer mechnaical issues, which is a far cry from the Motorcraft Ford of old.

* Mike Bliss -- 7th, Always interesting how as the season wanes the guys on the bubble for keeping their jobs suddenly start to improve.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Ken Schrader -- 11th, Short tracks are the great equalizer for the lesser teams.

* Jeremy Mayfield -- 18th, Respectable finish keeps him comfortably in the Chase picture.

* Dale Jarrett -- 31st, Not too often that DJ gets cast in the role of villain. But he played it to the hilt Saturday. gNA$hCAR penalized him a couple of laps after the dust-up with Newman. He refused interview requests at the end of the race. This leaves his 78 points behind Gordon for the 10th Chase spot, so it's understandable why he would be upset.

* Jimmie Johnson -- 36th, Terminal engine problems ended his night early. It really doesn't matter much, as he's still second in points.

Next week... The new Labor Day weekend tradition continues under the lights at California Speedway.

2005-08-27T03:08:00.000-07:00

Week 24 -- Bristol

Saturday night under the lights at Bristol Motor Speedway is always a trip. The fact that there are a mere three races to go before the cutoff for the Chase to the Championship only adds to the drama.

As if we needed more drama than Matt Kenseth sitting on the pole. When was the last time that happened? Oh yeah, just once before in the guy's entire career. A fluke, but one he's no doubt happy about. OK, Matty's had his fun. Time to move over and let the serious contenders by.

GLENN'S TEN:

* Jeff Gordon (winner) -- This track will either cure what ails you or ail what cures you. Jeff's already ailing, sitting 58 points shy of the all-important 10th spot in the standings. He had a very disappointing day at Michigan, which he could ill afford. He NEEDSa win big time. The fact he almost always runs well here coupled with the fact that he is on the outside pole will go a long way to sending him to victory. The time is now and this is definitely the place, where he's won five times. Make it six.

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Rusty Wallace -- Rusty wants to go out with a bang at a track where he's won more times than any other active driver. He'll come close but no cigar.
* Ryan Newman -- Ryan won the Busch race here Friday night -- the third straight Busch race he's entered that he's won. When does it start happening again in the Cup series? Perhaps tonight.
* Kurt Busch -- Mr. Sharpie absolutely looooves this place. He's got the wins to prove it.
* Tony Stewart -- I always like Tony under the lights, and particularly with the hot streak he's been on.
* Kevin Harvick -- How can one guy be so crappy at most tracks he runs on and yet do so well on these short ovals? Wonder who he'll try to punch out at the end of this one?
* Elliott Sadler -- Elliott got his first win at this track in 2001 and has looked good here ever since. His Chase hopes took a severe stumble last weekend. He needs a good run to fend off the likes of Jeff Gordon, and he'll get one.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- Defending winner of this race. Think he can make it two? Naw. But maybe he'll sneak into the show despite starting 41st.
* Greg Biffle -- Got in some practice Friday night, finishing second to Ryan Newman.
* Kyle Busch -- He led the first part of Friday's race before making a pit road error. I have to believe that his big bro's success here will rub off a bit.

ALSO WATCHING: Ricky Rudd (Starts fifth, but what will the car look like when it's over?)... Kasey Kahne (A sleeper pick.)... Jeremy Mayfield (Looks safe for the Chase, but a poor finish here could be disastrous.)... Michael Waltrip (Capable of getting to the front, but needs a fair dose of good luck to keep the car out of trouble.)... Jimmie Johnson (I've lost confidence in his drive to press for a top 10 until after the Chase starts.)

2005-08-23T23:08:00.000-07:00

Mayfield cleans up at Michigan

On a day when Michigan International Speedway resembled the county dump more than a race track, it only stood to reason that strange things were likely to happen. And any day when you find Jeremy Mayfield in the winner’s circle you know you’ve been to the gNA$hCAR equivalent of the Twilight Zone.

Mayfield himself admitted he didn’t have a car capable of winning. But when fuel strategy became a factor late in the race, he was in the right spot with just enough petrol to make it to the checkers.

I fared slightly better in my Michigan picks this time around, but still I think I should have done better.

GLENN'S TEN (5-for-10... Eh.):

* Brian Vickers (winner) -- 9th, What a bust this was, even if he did manage to make the show. The car was flat out bad most of the day, and it was only because he got a lucky dog and had good fuel economy that he finished here. I’ll take the point, but this pick was about as far off as I could get.

* Tony Stewart -- 5th, The current points leader did exactly what I said he would, charging through the field to get the top 5. Sitting pretty for the Chase.

* Greg Biffle -- 6th, The Biff ran strong, but encountered the same problem most ran into Sunday: garbage on the grill. That slowed him down only a bit, but a two-tire pit stop near the end left him with inferior rubber.

* Ryan Newman -- 12th, Where was Ryan at the end of this thing? He ran a consistent race, which keeps him in good shape to make the Chase. He had a fast pit stop for fuel in the final series of stops.

* Jeff Gordon -- 15th, It’s really hard to believe that Jeff’s team tested here after the disappointing June race. This one didn’t go any better, with the car dropping to the lower half of the field after every pit stop. It was only because the crew topped off the tank with about 54 laps to go and because they didn’t have to refuel that they finished as well as they did. Now 58 points out of 10th spot.

* Matt Kenseth -- 3rd, Matt probably should have won this race under different circumstances. He led a bunch of laps and was charging through the field near the end, but he didn’t have the fuel mileage to get the job done.

* Mark Martin -- 17th, Mark had been having a good day, as did all the Roush drivers. But he ran the water temperature too high a couple of times when he got trash on the grill and I think that may have hurt him.

* Elliott Sadler -- 39th, Elliott found the wall. End of story. Well, not quite the end. He had been running a decent race before then, and he did return to finish the thing. But this is a big hit in the points.

* Kyle Busch -- 43rd, Did I say it couldn’t get worse here for Hendrick drivers? OK, I take it back. KB caught some trash on his grill after grabbing the lead early on and had to pit with water temperature close to 300 degrees. That apparently cooked the engine enough that he eventually retired from the race for good.

* Carl Edwards -- 4th, Carl worked his way to the front and perhaps could have won this thing if not for the crappy fuel mileage he and all his teammates endured. Still, he did an awesome job to take four tires on the final pit stop under green and still finish here.

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Jeremy Mayfield -- 1st, Where was Jeremy most of this race? Down around 20th, where he would have finished if not for good fuel economy. This is only his fifth career victory. Wonder how long it will be until the sixth?

* Scott Riggs -- 2nd, I was pulling for Scott to overtake Mayfield. But alas, Robby Gordon wouldn’t move over and cost Riggs too much time to run down the leader. Great finish for a team that badly needed one.

* Kurt Busch -- 7th, For a while I thought this would be the winner. Fuel kept him from having a better finish, despite having led the most laps.

* Joe Nemechek -- 8th, It wasn’t a win, but a decent finish backs up a pole qualifying run.

* Jimmie Johnson -- 10th, I shouldn’t have doubted him after all. Had the fastest laps of those he was chasing at one point.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Bill Elliott -- 11th, Where did he come from?

* Kasey Kahne -- 29th, He led a few laps. Wasn’t leading the last one.

* Tony Raines -- 31st, Did anyone really think he would actually win this thing when he was leading with less than four laps to go? Mayfield would have run him down anyhow, but poor fuel economy caught him first. This would have been the upset of the decade. Too bad it wasn’t to be.

Next week: A little beatin’ and bangin’, Bristol style.

2005-08-21T00:11:00.000-07:00

Week 23 -- Michigan

I was 4-for-10 when the Cup cars raced this track in June. I can and should do better, so I'm hoping the second time will be a charm. Is this the week Tony Stewart finally comes back to earth? No more suspense -- let's get to the picks.

GLENN'S TEN:

* Brian Vickers (winner) -- It's gotta happen eventually. Brian had a great car here in June until a stupid mistake (hitting the wall at the entrance to the pits) took him out. This is a track where you can run high or low and flat out, the way Vickers seems to like. Besides, Tony Stewart can't win them all. Can he?

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Tony Stewart -- Maybe he won't win, but I'll pick him to be in the top five by day's end. Even starting 36th.
* Greg Biffle -- Won't make it three in a row here.
* Ryan Newman -- He loves this place and is coming off a win in Saturday's Busch race. The car didn't back him up in June, but this time the guys will get it right.
* Jeff Gordon -- Starts outside pole and is on a mission to sneak into the Chase. He had a horrible race here in June, so I just half to believe he won't do a repeat this time out.
* Matt Kenseth -- Ford usually dominates in Michigan, and Kenseth has always been a factor here.
* Mark Martin -- Roush does great here too.
* Elliott Sadler -- Can't afford to have a bad day and finished well here in June.
* Kyle Busch -- May be a good day for the Hendrick drivers. Can't possibly get worse than June was.
* Carl Edwards -- I underestimated him in June. Won't do that this time.

ALSO WATCHING: Kurt Busch (Almost picked him, but I just don't know)... Jimmie Johnson (Shouldn't be counting him out, but I'm thinking top 15)... Joe Nemechek (On the pole, which is always a bad omen)... Kasey Kahne (He was fast in qualifying, but something always seems to happen in race trim).

2005-08-14T22:26:00.000-07:00

Gee, what a surprise...

So Tony Stewart wins again. Only the fifth time in the past seven races. You've gotta sort of wonder if he's going to keep this up through the Chase or if he's shooting his wad now only to suffer the disappointment that Jimmie Johnson found in last year's championship drive.

That remains to be seen. But for now, suffice it to say that Tony is at the top of his game. I, on the other hand, am not. It wasn't that I went 4-for-10 that bothers me so much as the fact that I managed to miss a few guys I very nearly picked while the ones I actually picked suffered problems that left them deep in the field.

GLENN'S TEN (4-for-10... but at least I got the big one right!):

* Tony Stewart (winner) -- Winner! Sort of seems like a no-brainer, given Smoke's current streak. But there was some question as to whether he could make it to the finish line when the race went to a green-white-checker shootout and he was reporting problems with his alternator or somesuch. He overcame the heart-stopping moment and closed out a dominant performance that saw him lead all but about 10 of the 92 laps. No fence climbing this time. Perhaps even Tony regrets having started that fad.

* Jeff Gordon -- 14th, Can't buy a break. Had the only car capable of challenging Tony and suffered a tire problem less than 40 laps from the finish. Then he tried to dive for the pits when it looked like Greg Biffle was going to bring out the caution, which would have been a race-winning move except for the fact that the pits were closed when Jeff entered, so he had to restart at the tail end of the pack. Still, 14th is a monumental achievement that keeps him (barely) alive for a spot in the Chase. Four races and he needs to chop off about 70 points to get in. We'll see.

* Ryan Newman -- 30th, Two words: Bad brakes. Once that started to become an issue there was little hope of a good day.

* Kurt Busch -- 39th, A broken sway bar among other things forced the future driver of the Miller Lite Dodge to go behind the wall for a spell. Rotten afternoon. (snicker)

* Greg Biffle -- 38th, How often do you see two Roushers finish this far back? Biff got off track once and had other issues that kept him behind the wall for a bit.

* Robby Gordon -- 2nd, It may be the last time this year we talk about Robby Gordon in a positive light. He had no problems with the car (except for those caused by shortcutting the corners a couple of times) and was putting the pressure on Stewart for the win, but he just didn't have anything for him on the final restart.

* Boris Said -- 3rd, Best career finish. Always fun to watch. He was second on the next to last restart, but Stewart brake-checked him and hosed his chances of vying for the win.

* Ron Fellows -- 25th, I picked the wrong "ringer." Ron was briefly in the top 10, but this car just wasn't good enough to make the cut.

* Mark Martin -- 7th, Mark has another quiet but solid day.

* Casey Mears -- 23rd, I admit, it was wishful thinking.

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Scott Pruett -- 4th, I feel rooked! I didn't know until race time that Pruett was subbing for Sterling Marlin, who was on funeral leave. I probably would have picked him over Casey Mears. No, I definitely would have picked him over Casey.

* Jimmie Johnson -- 5th, Got the good finish he needed after last week's debacle. I should have seen this coming.

* Rusty Wallace -- 6th, I know Rusty likes the road courses, but I just didn't feel good about this one. He apparently felt better.

* Brian Vickers -- 8th, Another guy I should have picked over Mears. Next year will be interesting to watch.

* Joe Nemechek -- 9th, Nice to see Joe in the show for a change.

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 10th, Makes last week's crash at Indy all the more disappointing. We didn't hear much from him all race, but he was there when it counted.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Elliott Sadler -- 12th, Close to the top 10 in points, and at a track that could have been disastrous to his season.

* Jamie McMurray -- 13th, Sneaks into the 9th spot for the Chase.

* Terry Labonte -- 37th, Not even the veteran can salvage a good day for the FedEx team.

* Michael Waltrip -- 41st, Had a decent run going until Kasey Kahne nudged him into the wall on the straightaway. Poor Mikey, he's had that happen a few times this season.

Next week: Let's see how Tony does at one of those big cookie-cutter ovals -- Michigan.

2005-08-13T22:54:00.000-07:00

Week 22 -- Watkins Glen

I should really like this track. Forget the race, I just hink it's cool I've got a track with my name in it. So what if they spelled it wrong, a Glen's a Glenn in my book. This could only be a good omen, especially considering my rock-bottom performance in last week's predictions.

Watkins Glen is the second of two road courses the Cup drivers visit each season, and one of the big wild cards in the race to the Chase. Qualifying was rained out, so the field was set by owner points. Could be a big day for the likes of Jeff Gordon, who almost always runs well here. But I've got a feeling the day will belong to another hot road racer...

GLENN'S TEN:

* Tony Stewart (winner) -- I'm sure this will jinx it for him, but I've gotta go with the man who has won four of the past six races including the Sonoma road race, and who sits on the pole. Tony has won twice here, why not thrice? Look for smoke to be climbing the fences again Sunday.

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Jeff Gordon -- I keep writing off Jeff's season, but a big finish here would keep him within striking distance.
* Ryan Newman -- Ryan got a win in Saturday's Busch race and seems to do well at the road tracks. The seat time Saturday gives him a bit of an advantage.
* Kurt Busch -- Overlooked as a road course racer. A potential dark horse?
* Greg Biffle -- If he can keep the car out of trouble, figure him to be a threat.
* Robby Gordon -- Remember when Robby swept the road courses two years ago? That was before he started driving for himself. Make no mistake, Robby can win here, but that is if nothing happens to the car. He's gonna have to come from 39th to do it. I am fearful of this pick.
* Boris Said -- Most of the road course ringers failed to make the field because of the rainout, so Boris will have to carry the standard for them. He is quite capable of making the show from 41st on the grid, but he isn't known for being patient and that may be his undoing.
* Ron Fellows -- Here's a ringer with a real shot at a win. He's finished second here before. But driving the Tide Ford will virtually assure him of not performing to his potential.
* Mark Martin -- Crusty veteran might just sneak in.
* Casey Mears -- Had one of his several top 10s here a year ago.

ALSO WATCHING: Rusty Wallace (Could have a good day, could have a crappy day)... Kevin Harvick (Will starting 13th be a bad luck curse?)... Kasey Kahne (Showing maturity)... Brian Vickers (I really wanted to pick him after he dominated the Busch race, but a little voice is telling me it's a bad idea.)

AND WHAT ABOUT... Jimmie Johnson? (Needs to bounce back in a big way after Indy. He isn't all that strong at the road courses, so perhaps a top 15.)

2005-08-08T22:55:00.000-07:00

Stewart kisses the bricks

Well, they don't call Indy a flat track for nothing. There were a lot of flats in Sunday's Allstate 400 at the Brickyard -- which is a real crappy name for a race of this stature, BTW -- in the form of shredded Goodyear Eagles that led to 10 cautions and not a whole lot of excitement.

Speaking of flats, I was flat out of luck in my abysmal predictions that found me with my worst showing of the season on the heels of one of my best performances last time around with Pocono. But then I knew I was probably in trouble picking so many back-markers in the starting grid.

Tony Stewart made the most of his popular hometown victory, embellishing his new trademark fence-climbing gimmick with a backward victory lap that included a layover at the second turn grandstand for a little face time with his fans. And then there was that unique post-race interview on his back with a golf towel wrapped around his head. Let's hope this doesn't set the trend for other race winners, with longer and longer victory routines. It would be nice to leave some air time for the runners-up to chat about their day as well.

GLENN'S TEN (2-for-10... No comment.):

* Ryan Newman (winner) -- 34th, I am embarrassed to say that I missed what happened to Ryan to leave him two laps down at the checkers. The front end was taped up pretty good, so I'm assuming he hit something or something hit him. Needless to say, he was never a contender in this one.

* Greg Biffle -- 21st, Biff had a rocket early in the race until he suffered an ignition problem. He got that fixed, but then encountered more trouble later that left him at the middle of the pack.

* Rusty Wallace -- 25th, I missed the fact that Rusty crashed in practice and that was why he started so deep in the field. His backup car ran like one and he never made it too close to the front.

* Jimmie Johnson -- 38th, That's a big DNF for the former points leader. Jimmie was working to salvage a so-so day from his 42nd-place start, but he cut a right front tire on lap 143 and took a hard lick. He appeared very shaken in the pits afterward. Not sure if he was so emotional because of the crash or the fact that no driver wants to s*ck at Indy. What a forgettable weekend.

* Kurt Busch -- 18th, Kurt did just what we expected him to do, taking two tires to get track position. This looks like a decent day.

* Jeff Gordon -- 8th, This race was so Jeff. He lingered in the bottom half of the top 10 much of the race when he wasn't mired deeper in traffic. He used some off-sequence pit strategy to take four fresh tires and get his car right to gain a few spots in the waning laps, but he never led at a track where he has won four times before. He wants to win five, but his pattern here has been every two or three years. He'll be due again in 2007.

* Tony Stewart -- 1st, Why didn't I pick Tony? Looks like a pretty lame choice of Newman over Smoke now, I'd say. Still, Tony almost met my prediction of coming up short when he got passed by Kasey Kahne with less than 20 to go. I think this win was more one of raw determination on his part. He'd led the most laps and waited so long to win here that when he got in position to do so he wasn't about to be denied. That's four wins in the last six races for the new points leader.

* Jamie McMurray --17th, Didn't hear much from Jamie in this one. Not much incentive anymore now that he's locked up a deal with Viagra in a couple of seasons.

* Dale Jarrett -- 14th, Not much to write home about here, except that a decent finish keeps him in the top 10 in points.

* Kevin Harvick -- 19th, I knew Harvick would burn me here yet I took him anyway. He was one of the early pretenders with a car that looked decent, but there were other cars on the track that were a bit more decent.

REST OF THE TOP 10 (This is a long list. 8-/ )

* Kasey Kahne -- 2nd, The Second Place Kid comes up with another one. But perhaps it is fitting that the loss was to the man he beat to get his first win at Richmond three months ago. Kasey was in the thick of things all day. He just lost to a car that was better on the long run.

* Brian Vickers -- 3rd, I have to stop overlooking him, but it's hard when they run that hideous lime green paint scheme!

* Jeremy Mayfield -- 4th, Still in the top 10 in points. Please, not another Chase where we have to watch Mayfield. Should have figured though. This is a Dodge track.

* Matt Kenseth -- 5th, Where did he come from? Oh yeah, 20th. Matt's been stepping it up. Too bad he didn't start the season out this way.

* Casey Mears -- 6th, Defending qualifying record holder recovered from a qualifying crash and a 40th-place start to wind up here. He may be a Mears running at Indy, but he still ain't Rick.

* Mark Martin -- 7th, I said I'd probably regret not picking him and guess what? I do.

* Sterling Marlin -- 9th, Look at all these Dodges. Sheesh. And I picked all the wrong Dodges.

* Kyle Busch -- 10th, Yet another day when the Hendrick B crew outshines the A teams.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Kyle Petty -- 13th(!), A Petty car has a good day and no one cares.

* Jeff Green -- 15th, Two Petty cars have good days and still no one cares.

* Elliott Sadler -- 32nd, Talk about major disappointment. Elliott thought he had the best car of his career under him and was set on at least a top 5 before he suffered problems in the last few laps that dropped him quickly off the pace.

* Jason Leffler -- 33rd, It came about a month later than I predicted, but Gibbs has finally swallowed its pride and accepted what most of the Cup community learned four years ago: Leffler can't race. At least not well enough to be a contender, which is what doomed his future with the team. A fittingly forgettable final race in the #11 Fed-Ex Chevy.

* Ricky Rudd -- 41st, I could have (and did almost) picked Ricky for the top 10. He looked decent until he encountered carburetor problems. They replaced the problem part in the pits under caution, but he lost a lap in the process. He regained it, but later suffered a crash that took him out.

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 43rd, Remember Chicagoland, where everyone was saying the #8 bunch were back? That they still had a decent shot of clawing their way back into the Chase? They aren't saying that after Sunday. Junior got dumped (inadvertently) by Mike Skinner and took out teammate Martin Truex Jr. in the process. When things are going rotten they just seem to keep going that way.

Next week... Get out yer Dramamine. It's back to the road course at Watkins Glen. Can Tony get number five? I guarantee he'll be somewhere in my picks.

2005-08-07T00:01:00.000-07:00

Week 21 -- The Brickyard (or whatever it's called now)

It sure was nice to have a week off after a grueling schedule of weekly (or is that "weakly") predictions. I closed out on a high note at Pocono, going 7-for-10. Don't expect that performance this weekend. The Brickyard is one of those places that always seems like it should be a snap to pick, but seldom is.

You take the a long, demanding flat track where each of its four corners is separate from its nearest neighbor. Throw in a few native Indiana boys who really want to win at their "home" track very badly. Look to see who's won here before. Throw it all into a grab bag and pull out a few names and you'll stand as good a chance of coming up with the winners.

I won't resort to the grab bag method, but I've got a feeling this is gonna be tough.

GLENN'S TEN:

* Ryan Newman (winner) -- Do I really think Ryan's going to win this race, when he hasn't won in close to a year now? The short answer is: I don't really know. This qualifying field was such a topsy-turvy mess that most of the favorites will be coming from the back. Ryan is one of the few who starts toward the front, and he's one of those Indiana boys I was talking about, with something to prove. He's been driving more consistently lately, so why not?

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Greg Biffle -- Starting 31st? He won't be that bad in race trim.
* Rusty Wallace -- Had to qualify on owner points and starts 41st. Yuch! But my gut tells me he'll find his wat to the front. He's come close to winning here before and this is his last shot at it.
* Jimmie Johnson -- Starts 42nd because he didn't take a qualifying lap. What's with all these guys? Please, it can only get better from here.
* Kurt Busch -- Starts 37th. The defending champ didn't exactly light 'em up in qualifying, but if anybody can two-tire-stop his way into the lead it is the #97 bunch.
* Jeff Gordon -- Will starting up front prove to be the curse I think it will be? I hope not for Jeff's sake, because he's rolling off 7th and needs a good finish. First would be nice. On a good day I'd probably give it to him, but lately...
* Tony Stewart -- Nobody's been hotter than this man. Smoke gets pretty emotional about this track, and he's even more emotional the worse he finishes. I really would like to see Tony win this race, but something tells me he'll come up short yet again. Starts 22nd, so who knows.
* Jamie McMurray -- Right behind Stewart is this cat. He nearly won here a year ago. I know he's capable of running up front, but for how long?
* Dale Jarrett -- Starts 24th. He's won here before, so maybe if he just plays it cool he'll find his way toward the front.
* Kevin Harvick -- I worry about Happy. He won here two years back, but of all these picks I think he's most vulnerable.

ALSO WATCHING: Just too many good cars to fit on the list... Elliott Sadler (The curse of starting on the pole will get him)... Ricky Rudd (Almost bumped Harvick to get him in. He's won one here.)... Mark Martin (Starts 10th and I'll probably regret not taking him)... Dale Earnhardt Jr. (Still thinks he's got a chance at the Chase and just might work his way out of 27th by day's end.)

2005-07-25T00:49:00.000-07:00

That feels better

Maybe I should stop dissing Pocono. If I can emerge with days like this one more often then they can run all the races at this track and I'll only complain about the boring race action.

Seriously, the first three quarters of this race was about as dull as it gets, and I don't think it had everything to do with the guys in the TNT booth. Benny, Wally and the guys rarely get the blood pumping like they do on FOX, but even D.W. would have been hard-pressed to make this one exciting. Kurt Busch led a bunch of laps and won the race, a few other guys had real good cars and ran near the front all day, and a bunch of other guys had mediocre cars and brought up the rear all day. Yawn.

What saved the day was the "50 million cautions" -- as Mark Martin put it -- over the final 50 laps, which kept the competitors close and assured that I escaped with my first 7-for-10 day in months.

GLENN'S TEN (7-for-10... How'd that happen?):

* Tony Stewart (winner) -- 7th, Tony never said his car was great, but he never said it was bad either. He ran in the top 10 all afternoon. Now second in points and on the move.

* Carl Edwards -- 4th, Carl charged from the back and was at mid-pack after less than five laps. He never quite got to the front and spoiled Kasey Kahne's day when the two made contact in the next to last lap, but this was a tremendous run.

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 32nd, My one low spot. Junior had an awful car all weekend. By the time his crew got the bugs worked out on race day he was already two laps down and never recovered. But he was fast for being a double-lapper.

* Ricky Rudd -- 10th, I feel real good about nailing this pick. Rudd got trapped a lap down when a caution flag flew in the middle of green flag pit stops, but he eventually made it up and stormed back into the top 10. It looked like he might have a car to challenge for the lead until it started to push. He never was as strong after that, but he snuck into the show after Greg Biffle and Michael Waltrip had their problems.

* Jimmie Johnson -- 12th, Considering that he was a lap down for a time and never had a good car, this was a monumental achievement. He used some two-tire stops to move forward. Hangs on to the points lead.

* Ryan Newman -- 5th, I'm starting to think that this is the new Newman -- hangs out in the top 10 most of the day, never has the strongest car, but stays out of trouble and picks up the good finish to stay in the thick of the points race. Not sure what I think of his three-wide pass on Ricky Rudd and who was it? Brian Vickers? late in the race.

* Bobby Labonte -- 8th, Bobby should have more days like this at tracks he runs well at. Another step in the road to recovery.

* Greg Biffle -- 17th, The dust-up with Michael Waltrip that put Mikey out of contention also stuffed Biffle, although less seriously. He had to pit and fell from the top 5. Recovered a few spots over the final couple of cautions.

* Mark Martin -- 3rd, Mark got tired of all his second-place finishes here, so he finished third instead. He might have challenged Kurt Busch for the win, but he wasn't able to get by Rusty Wallace so we'll never know.

* Kurt Busch -- 1st, Should have gone with my intuition. At least I picked him for the show, but it was clear early on that he wasn't going to be denied. He dominated the race and overtook Rusty Wallace with less than 20 to go to seal the deal.

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Rusty Wallace -- 2nd, I had him on my original list, but passed in favor of Earnhardt Jr. Pffffth! Rusty is the wild card in the Chase picture. He's been solid to this point. I keep waiting for the big choke, but probably won't see it until Talladega or Atlanta.

* Kevin Harvick -- 6th, Oh yeah, almost forgot that he's occasionally very good. A little luck never hurts either. Should be good momentum going to Indy in two weeks, where he has won before.

* Mike Bliss -- 9th, He can thank Kasey Kahne, Michael Waltrip and Greg Biffle for this one. Probably won't do anything to keep him in the car next season. Might not be thanking Mikey when he gets this ride in '06.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Jamie McMurray -- 11th, Couldn't back up his pole. Just missed the show.

* Jeff Gordon -- 13th, The car was mediocre all day. He didn't deserve a finish this good. Pit strategy only gets you so far. Loses more ground to Jimmie Johnson.

* Michael Waltrip -- 26th, Crashed twice in the space of 10 laps after Greg Biffle cut a tire and bounced Mikey into the wall. He'd been as high as third. Needed a good finish and didn't deserve this.

* Kasey Kahne -- 27th, Needed a good finish and didn't deserve this. He made a run on Karl Edwards for 4th on the green-white-checker restart and Carl got into him, turning him into the wall.

Next week... Freedom! We've got a rare bye on the schedule before the Brickyard 400 Aug. 7, so you've got time to cruise with Kyle Petty on his charity ride... or do whatever it is you find personally rewarding. See you in two weeks.

2005-07-23T23:06:00.000-07:00

Week 20 -- Pocono (again)

I will never understand why we have to run this track twice a season within six weeks of the first race. With places like Kentucky Speedway champing at the bit to get a Cup race, it seems like gNA$hCAR could afford to dump a Pocono date to spread the wealth. Ahhh, but the wealth is what it's really all about, and the real reason why tracks like Pocono will keep their second date for the foreseeable future. Let's just expand the season to 52 weeks and it truly will become a gNA$hCAR Nation.

I'm ranting already. Time to make my picks for Sunday's latest installment...

GLENN'S TEN:

* Tony Stewart -- Am I going out on too much of a limb? I mean, four wins in five races would be quite a feat. I'd say yes, except that it's hard to pick against Smoke right now, and this is a good track for him.

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Carl Edwards -- Carl won the first race here this season, but if he's going to repeat then he'll have to cover a lot of ground. Bobby Gerhart qualified the #99 and only brought it home in 41st -- which is two spots better than Carl will start after they send him to the tail end of the field Sunday following the driver change.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- Dale's another guy I don't like to pick against right now, even though he does start an abysmal 38th. He'll find some way to make it to the show by the end of the race.
* Ricky Rudd -- I've been waiting for this one. Ricky can win here, but his current ride is still highly suspect. But Fatback and the boys have been improving the situation each week, and this may be Ricky's best shot since Sonoma for a good finish.
* Jimmie Johnson -- Jimmie's always a threat to win here. Don't think he will this time around, but a top 5?
* Ryan Newman -- Ryan's slipping. Only starts 4th tomorrow. Is that a good thing? I always like to be optimistic.
* Bobby Labonte -- Bobby's been stepping it up. With teammate Tony on a tear it only stands to reason that Labonte will have a good day at a track he's won at multiple times.
* Greg Biffle -- The Biff can do little wrong, it seems.
* Mark Martin -- Will he be back next year or won't he? Who cares. He's having fun right now and still has a shot at winning his first Cup.
* Kurt Busch -- I've got a rotten feeling that Kurt is due for a big day. He could win this one.

AND WHAT ABOUT... Jamie McMurray (Surprised everyone by winning the pole. I'll be more surprised if he's still running at the finish.)... Dale Jarrett (Could make a quiet run to the front.)... Jeremy Mayfield (Knows how to win here, but does his car?)... Jeff Gordon (I shouldn't give up on him, but this clearly isn't his year. I fear more that the team is giving up, and a 21st place start doesn't do much to disprove that.)

2005-07-18T02:07:00.000-07:00

New Hampshire recap

Now that was a good race. I'm not just saying that because I finally managed to get more than four of my picks correct, but because there was some good, hard racing all day. I've never been much of a fan of New Hampshire, and I'm not sure why. I seem to predict fairly well here, as it looked like I was going to do today.

I say "looked" because my superb afternoon got spoiled over the final 100 laps. Would you believe that as late as lap 198 I had nine(!) cars in the top 10 and all of them in the top 15? With 50 laps left i still had 8 of 10. But alas, when the checkers fell I had just six left.

GLENN'S TEN (6-for-10... Shouldn't be disappointed, but I am.):

* Jimmie Johnson (winner) -- 13th, Jimmie had a top 10 car most of the day, but he drifted back with less than 40 to go.

* Jeff Gordon -- 25th, When things are going bad they seem to go bad in a big way. Jeff was poised for a top 5 and seemed ready to get his season back on track. But with less than 15 to go he lost his brakes and limped around to dinish a lap down, knocking him further behind Johnson and away from the top 10. With just 7 races until the Chase I think we can safely assume that Jeff's chances are toast.

* Ryan Newman -- 7th, Hung out in the top 10 all day. A good, solid run if not a spectacular one.

* Kurt Busch -- 2nd, Talk about shooting yourself in the foot. Kurt spun out once, had two horrifically bad pit stops, and each time clawed his way back to the front thanks to the fact that he had the best car in the field. But he didn't have enough to keep pace with Tony Stewart.

* Brian Vickers -- 11th, *Sigh* I thought Brian had an excellent shot at a top 10, but he came up just a bit short, as did all the Hendrick drivers.

* Kyle Busch -- 4th, Kyle had one of the three strongest cars most of the afternoon, but he had handling issues near the final few laps that prevented him from challenging for the lead.

* Greg Biffle -- 5th, Biff was one of Kyle's handling problems. These two were beating on each other over the final 30 laps or so, with Busch nearly wrecking on at least two occasions. They had a little discussion on pit road at the end of the race. No fists, but you might wonder.

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 9th, Junior did what Gordon needed to do, having a decent finish in a car that wasn't quite right. Difference is that Gordon couldn't hang with his bad equipment down the stretch.

* Tony Stewart -- 1st, When Tony climbed the fence at Daytona two weeks ago he said he was too big and fat to be climbing fences. If he keeps this up, he'll slim down enough to climb the fence and accept his Nextel Cup at Homestead in November. That's three wins in four races for the Home Depot bunch. His car dominated the race. This is the Smoke we all know and love -- cocky, confident, joking with the reporters and celebrating with the fans. The fence-climbing routine is gonna get old in a hurry, though. Hey, Tony, stick to winning races and leave the fence antics to the IRL guys.

* Mark Martin -- 15th, Until Gordon's disappointing finish, Mark was the only one of my drivers who clearly wasn't top 10 caliber. He rand between 15th and 20th most of the day.

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Bobby Labonte -- 3rd, Nice to see Labonte having a good race. Maybe all of Tony's luck is rubbing off on his teammate. He was in the top 5 all afternoon.

* Kasey Kahne -- 6th, I nearly picked him, but Istill don't trust the consistency of this kid yet. He's not going to make the Chase, so he should start working on getting more finishes like this so he'll be poised for a championship run next season.

* Rusty Wallace -- 8th, Rusty is making his title bid count with unglamorous finishes like this one. Usually he's just outside the top 10 (when I pick him) or just inside it (when I don't).

* Matt Kenseth -- 10th, Nothing personal, Matt, but you screwed my day over by edging out Vickers.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Michael Waltrip -- 17th, He won't be back in the #15 next season. I hope he lands with a decent team and can get more finishes like this or better.

* Joe Nemechek -- 18th, Last car on the lead lap at the track where he got his first career win.

* Robby Gordon -- 30th, Roughed up a couple of cars on pit road. Roughed up a car or two on the track. Got roughed up by Jeff Gordon, who gave him the chrome horn at one point. Robby, for today at least, was a menace.

* Elliott Sadler -- 39th, Late crash may have dealt a devastating blow to his hopes for making the Chase. Still in the top 10, but it ain't by much.

* Jamie McMurray -- 40th, Had a little help from Kenseth finding the wall.

Next week... Back to Pocono.

2005-07-16T23:52:00.000-07:00

Week 19 -- New Hampshire

It's a new seaon (well, the start of the second half of it at least) and time for a new attitude. Frankly, I'm tired of losing. Maybe not as tired of it as Jeff Gordon, who may be close to making vacation plans for the Chase, but I'm fed up with this 4-for-10 business. I haven't had a six or better weekend with my predictions since... since... I think it was something like Vegas. It has been downright embarrassing. I'd love to turn that around Sunday at Loudon.

This is one of those confounded impound races, where they qualify Saturday night and then lock the cars away so that no adjustments can be made until race time. That means the teams that hit their race setups right for qualifying may not have shown well for the pole, but they just might claw their way through the pack and lead all afternoon. This has been a good thing for the Roush drivers. Roushites have won most of the impound races so far this year, and Kurt Busch comes in with back-to-back wins at Loudon.

I can do better. I must do better. Will i do better? Let's see...

GLENN'S TEN:

* Jimmie Johnson (winner) -- The #48 swept the 2003 races at this track and is always a threat to do it again. There is a lot at stake for Hendrick right now, what with Jeff Gordon's woes, and you can make book on their drivers turning up the heat this weekend. I'm banking on Jeff to have a good race, and if he does then Johnson certainly should.

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Jeff Gordon -- Desperation has set it. Frustration has peaked. No one steps up to a challenge like Super G. Jeff desperately needs to finish top 5 from here on if he has any gasp of a chance at the Chase. He'll break through today -- from the 21st spot on the grid.
* Ryan Newman -- Starts "only" fourth, which tells me the team was perfecting its race setup before qualifying. Look out.
* Kurt Busch -- Won't make it three in a row, but he'll be near the front.
* Brian Vickers -- On the pole. He'll back it up this week.
* Kyle Busch -- Vickers' teammate benefiting from the same car development program. And he's starting 7th.
* Greg Biffle -- Let's not forget the Roushers, especially the number 2 guy in the points.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- I know, I know... I said Junior stinks on flat tracks. But I gotta feeling he'll find a way to finish in the top 10 because he's on a positive vibe and it's his only chance to make the Chase.
* Tony Stewart -- He'll either lead a hundred laps or he'll be mired in the 20s all afternoon.
* Mark Martin -- We thought he was retiring this year. So did he. Now we aren't so sure. But we are sure that he is capable of a good run at New Hampshire.

ALSO WATCHING: Kasey Kahne (Starts 2nd and ought to run well here)... Rusty Wallace (As much as I hate to acknowledge it, Rusty is poised to make a championship run)... Carl Edwards (Bad luck ruined a potential winning day at Chicagoland)... Joe Nemechek (He says this is one of his favorite tracks, but he starts 22nd).

2005-07-12T00:43:00.000-07:00

Junior does know how to win

We're halfway to crowning a new Nextel Cup champion, and we've learned a few things over the course of the first 18 weeks of the season: 1) The gNA$hCAR season is entirely too long; 2) Roush and Hendrick are the dominant forces behind the sport these days; 3) The Chase will include 10 and no more than 10 drivers; 4) My predictions really have s*cked this year; and 5) rumors of Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s demise may have been greatly exaggerated.

Here you have a team that could barely stay on the lead lap most of the first 16 races, then on the heels of a third-place finish at Daytona a week ago, Junior comes up with an improbable victory and everyone is penciling him in the field for the Chase. Better keep that Bud on ice, guys. Two decent races does not a championship make. Ol' Driver 8 still has a deep hole to dig out of and only eight races left to do it. He could, but I won't put my money on him. Not with places like Watkins Glen, New Hampshire and Bristol still in the wings.

But why should you listen to me? A guy who on his best weeks now manages a meager 4-for-10 on his picks. I feel like I was robbed with this one. Much of the day I had 7-of-10 in the show, but there were "issues" that took my guys out of contention.

GLENN'S TEN: (4-for-10... and this was a good day.)

* Ryan Newman (winner) -- 29th, *Sigh* Ryan had a decent car, but he made an unscheduled pit stop during a caution sequence that left him deep in the field and he had to use pit strategy to work his way back up. Then he got to racing hard on 2 tires and scraped the wall, which took him out of contention.

* Jimmie Johnson -- 3rd, An unscheduled green-flag stop left him trapped a lap down when the caution came out. He eventually got the Lucky Dog to get back on the lead lap and stealthily made his way to the front, but he didn't have quite the car he needed to overhaul the leaders. Hangs on to the points lead.

* Greg Biffle -- 11th, The Biff ran in front for several laps, but pit strategy shuffles left him too deep in the field to mount a late-lap charge.

* Matt Kenseth -- 2nd, Best finish in ages. Matt led the most laps and might have run down Junior given another couple of laps. Taking four tires on the final caution might not have been the best strategy, but that's 20/20 hindsight.

* Mark Martin -- 10th, Sneaks in to the top 10.

* Kevin Harvick -- 19th, Looked good early, but got shuffled steadily backward.

* Tony Stewart -- 5th, Had to start at the rear of the field because he didn't qualify the car after his Friday wreck. Still, he roared his way through the pack in his backup car and did everything short of lead. His car wasn't quite as strong late as it had appeared earlier.

* Kyle Busch -- 14th, He had been in the top 5 early, but I think he may have been dinged for speeding on pit road once. The car went backward on one sequence, so he was running about mid-pack the last half of the race.

* Jeff Gordon -- 33rd, Should have followed my instincts on this one. **Double sigh** This was an abysmal race for Super G. The car was loose all day. They tried to tighten it to no avail. They tried a 2-tire stop, which didn't work. He was mired deep in the 30s most of the day, and then he got spun into the wall less than 20 laps from the finish. This is becoming the rule rather than the exception. Jeff himself said he didn't "know what we were doing back there anyway" all day. Someone needs to start working on his race-day setups. Worst news is that he's behind Junior in the points chase -- and Junior is a dark horse to make the Chase...

* Carl Edwards -- 39th, Carl himself said he had a car capable of winning. That was before he blew a right front tire and smacked the wall. Doh!

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 1st, Little E started a forgettable 25th and kept tweaking the car all race to get it to the front. He stayed out on the final caution to keep track position, which was the difference. Kenseth struggled to get by Jimmie Johnson and that was all the delay that Junior needed. I'm (obviously) not a big Junior fan, but it was nice to see him in high spirits after his return to Victory Lane.

* Brian Vickers -- 4th, I considered taking him, but I just never know who I'm gonna get. He proved his worth today.

* Jerey Mayfield -- 6th, Sows what a little pit strategy can do. He's in the top 10 in points now. Ugh!

* Ricky Rudd -- 7th, Things are happening again for this team. Can't wait for Pocono.

* Kurt Busch -- 8th, I knew I'd kick myself for not picking him. Ah well. He was in the top 10 all day.

* Casey Mears -- 9th, Started third, so he should have been here, but he didn't make it look easy.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Rusty Wallace -- 12th, Fourth in the Chase picture. Should I care? If he's in contention on Week 36th, then I will.

* Bobby Labonte -- 13th, No one ever mentioned him.

* David Stremme -- 16th, The next Sterling Marlin makes a memorable Cup debut...

* Jamie McMurray -- 22nd, ...And the next Mark Martin doesn't. At least not today.

* Kasey Kahne -- 41st, Doesn't have Tony Stewart to blame for this year's Chicagoland crash.

Next week... New Hampshire. A flat track. Junior hates flat tracks. Jimmie Johnson loves them.

2005-07-09T22:08:00.000-07:00

Week 18 -- Chicagoland

There have been just three winners in the short history of this track, and all of them will be on hand Sunday. But will we see another repeat winner or will there be a new face in Victory Lane? I'm going to take my lead from Saturday's Busch race in shaping my Cup picks this week...

GLENN'S TEN:

* Ryan Newman (winner) -- There's no time like the present for Ryan, and there's no track like Chicagoland, where he has a win and a couple of strong finishes. He led most of the Busch race Saturday before a penalty cost him track position and he had to settle for third. He missed the pole (which always bodes well) and is still looking for the first win of the season. It's gotta come eventually.

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Jimmie Johnson -- He's on the pole and has that consistency thing in his favor, although the bigger motivation is...
* Greg Biffle -- Second in points and coming off a disappointing finish at Daytona in which he lost the points lead. He finished behind Kevin harvick in the Busch race Saturday.
* Matt Kenseth -- I'll roll the dice and take him this week. Also ran well here Saturday.
* Mark Martin -- Another Buschwacker who, if he can avoid calamity, will find a way to finish in the show.
* Kevin Harvick -- Two-time winner narrowly missed three in a row and would like to return to form (if only for a day).
* Tony Stewart -- Defending race winner here looking for third win in a row. He suffered a crash Friday and did not qualify the car, but he will be in it Sunday. But will he be up to snuff?
* Kyle Busch -- The young'uns seem to do well here. He's starting 24th, however.
* Jeff Gordon -- He simply can't afford to have any more dismal finishes. This is one of the few tracks at which he's never won, so there'll be extra incentive. But I worry about this one.
* Carl Edwards -- I haven't picked him in a while, but he has the advantage of having run Saturday's race and this track has many similarities to Atlanta, where he won.

ALSO WATCHING... Brian Vickers (Will Hendrick cars have a great day?)... Joe Nemechek (Running well lately)... Kasey Kahne (Should do better than he probably will).

2005-07-03T03:13:00.000-07:00

We're Smokin'!

I feel somewhat vindicated that I was able to come up with the winner in this one despite the fact that most of my picks suffered a horrendous evening that started when the raindrops fell just before the scheduled flying of the green flag.

I hate rain, and Florida seems to get a lot of it in the summer. Sort of makes you wonder why they don't just put a big Plexiglass roof over the whole doggone track to avoid stuff like happened tonight with a 4-hour rain delay. I don't think I can remember a Cup race that finished after 1:30 in the morning local time. As long as they kept the beer flowing I'm sure the fans didn't mind.

GLENN'S TEN (4-for-10... Not bad, considering.):

* Tony Stewart (winner) -- Winner! Haven't nailed many this year, but this one didn't even look tough. Tony led from the opening lap until somewhere around the 60th lap, and he set a record for laps led in this race. He blew by the rest of the pack after the final caution to grab the lead for good. First-ever restrictor track win, and he's up to third in the standings. Loved his climb of the fence to celebrate after he took the checkers.

* Greg Biffle -- 36th, We had the good, now for the bad and the ugly. Biff got caught up in a wreck and spent lots of time behind the wall. He also lost the points lead he gained last week because of it.

* Jeff Gordon -- 7th, Jeff's car was never strong. It got progressively worse as the night wore on. He was indirectly to blame for the big wreck triggered when he signaled his intention to come to pit road and Jamie McMurray missed the sign. A bunch of cars had to check up and the result was a big crash. Jeff struggled back to get a decent finish, thanks to high attrition and the fact the car was good on short runs.

* Jimmie Johnson -- 6th, Jimmie might have had the second best car on the track, but he made the mistake of trying to pass Jamie McMurray late in the race and no one drafted with him. He fell back to where Gordon was running and then was able to draft back to the lead pack, but too little too late.

* Michael Waltrip -- 40th, Mikey's night was ruined when a tire went down and he collided with a couple of cars, including Biffle. He was a contender before that.

* Kurt Busch -- 37th, He got tangled up in the crash that Jeff Gordon triggered.

* Joe Nemechek -- 15th, He got some crash damage, but he was able to recover for a decent finish.

* Mark Martin -- 39th, A victim of the Gordon crash, he woved high on the track to avoid trouble and got crunched by Scott Riggs.

* Elliott Sadler -- 21st, For the night the tally was one spin, two lucky dogs and a handful of laps led. An eventful evening if not a successful one.

* Dale Jarrett -- 5th, Haven't seen a smile that wide on DJ's face in a long time. He's in the top 10 in points. Gotta be lovin' it.

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Jamie McMurray -- 2nd, Considering the number of incidents he was involved in, this was a superb finish.

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 3rd, Knew I was making a mistake not picking him. He had some flu bug during qualifying, but he'd shaken it off by Saturday night and was able to move quickly from his 39th starting spot. Didn't have much for Tony, though.

* Rusty Wallace -- 4th, Final Daytona race ends pretty darn well.

* Mike Wallace -- 8th, Never would have picked him, but a great finish all the same.

* Matt Kenseth -- 9th, Had a strong car most of the evening, but got shuffled back in the late laps.

* Ken Schrader -- 10th, Every dog has his day. Schrader spun through the soggy grass at least once, so this is a fine finish.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Jeff Burton -- 11th, Still looking for that elusive win. Ran well most of the night, coming from 42nd on the grid.

* Ryan Newman -- 14th, Suffered some sort of tire problem or something late in the running that took him out of contention. He recovered from the mid-twenties.

* Jason Leffler -- 18th, If he could run the restrictor tracks and nothing else he might be having a decent year. Still wondering when Gibbs will throw in the towel.

* Kevin Harvick -- 24th, Got wrecked, but had been running well.

* Boris Said -- 28th, Another driver who went hydroplaning through the infield. Road racer still has a ways to go on the ovals.

Next week... Can Tony make it three in a row by winning at the track where he won last year? We head to Chicagoland.

2005-07-02T12:21:00.000-07:00

Week 17 -- Daytona

We're under the lights tonight for one of the best (in my personal opinion) gNA$hCAR races of the season -- the Pepsi 400. One of the best because everyone loves night racing, everyone loves the wide-open high speed thrills of the restrictor tracks, and at 400 miles it is one of the shortest races of the year.

Now, for who's going to win? How about who's NOT going to win. Answer: Anyone not involved with Roush, Hendrick or Gibbs. Those are the three teams that have been dominant lately, with Gibbs the late entry in the persona of Tony Stewart, who won last week, finished second the week before and sits on the pole today.

GLENN'S TEN:

* Tony Stewart (winner) -- I think this might finally be Tony's day... er, night... at Daytona. He wants to win a restrictor race very badly, and since the Busch victory at Daytona back in February he's looked stout in practice and qualifying. He got hung out to dry in the Daytona 500, but if he has any of his teammates around to help him at the end he'll be able to pull this one off.

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Greg Biffle -- New points leader and former Pepsi 400 winner will back it up with a good finish.
* Jeff Gordon -- Hendrick cars didn't look all that dominant in qualifying, but don't be misled. Gordon is the defending winner here and has dominated the plate tracks for the past two seasons. He has every incentive to do well, given his recent slump. He's just a few points outside the 400-point threshold for making the Chase.
* Jimmie Johnson -- Best Hendrick qualifier at third. May be a dark horse to win.
* Michael Waltrip -- Mikey always runs well here. But will he get help from the #8, which doesn't look strong today?
* Kurt Busch -- Always finds a way at the plate tracks. Just wonder if he'll be in position to make the winning move for a change rather than pushing someone else across the line.
* Joe Nemechek -- I'll chance it and pick him. He has a strong engine program, and that's a large part of what you need to run well here. Historically he's been a top 10 finisher.
* Mark Martin -- Last call for this track. He'll go out well.
* Elliott Sadler -- I keep underestimating Elliott. Not today.
* Dale Jarrett -- If Elliott can do it, so can his teammate. DJ has won this race before and seems to be turning up the heat ever so slightly.

ALSO WATCHING: Scott Riggs (#10 always fast here, but seems to be fraught with bad luck)... Kevin Harvick (Starts near the front, but he'll find a way to screw it up)... Rusty Wallace (No plate track wins, and that record will stand)... Brian Vickers (If he avoids the Big One he might sneak in.)

SENTIMENTAL FAVORITES: Boris Said (Starts an awesome 4th, but won't last there too long)... Ryan Newman (Just doesn't qualify well here (27th), but he might finish well if he catches some breaks. I'm predicting he won't. 8-( )

2005-06-26T23:49:00.000-07:00

Tony smokes 'em at Sonoma

I stink.

There. I admit it. I had about as much luck with my positively pathetic predictions on this road course Sunday as Hendrick Motorsports had getting its drivers out of third gear. Fortunately for Tony Stewart, he had no such difficulties in running up front most of the afternoon and grabbing the lead for good when he needed to. About time we saw Tony celebrating in Victory Lane this season instead of talking trash about guys who he felt did him wrong on the track.

But if Tony won't talk trash this week then I guess I'll have to instead. Maybe I'll start by trashing my picks...

GLENN'S TEN (3-for-10... Yes, it can get worse!):

* Jeff Gordon (winner) -- 33rd, An all too familiar story for Jeff, who came to one of his best tracks and suffered mechanical problems that ruined his day in a big way. He led the first third of the race before his car got stuck in third gear or somesuch and lost a lap getting repaired. He got the free pass and was clawing his way back to a top 20, but then the transmission went south again in the waning laps and left him here. So instead of moving back into the top 10 and closing the gap on the points lead, he lost more ground. Still 10 races to get it together, but this isn't encouraging.

* Tony Stewart -- 1st, All the scuttlebutt about Tony was true. He did have the car to beat today. And once Gordon fell out of contention there was no one who could hold a candle to him. When he chased down Ricky Rudd with less than 20 laps to go there was little question that he'd get by him. He did so with 10 laps remaining and never looked back. His first victory since Watkins Glen last August.

* Kurt Busch -- 3rd, Nobody talked much about him today, probably because he stayed out of trouble and folks were watching the Jeff and Tony show.

* Mark Martin -- 15th, Think pit strategy by others cost him a top 10. The car was decent but not dominant.

* Rusty Wallace -- 4th, A more Rusty-like finish on the road course. He was out of the top 10 most of the day, but the closing laps saw him move up.

* Boris Said -- 17th, This guy shot himself in the foot more than once. His aggressive driving style saw him banging fenders with others as he worked his way through traffic, but the big hit came when he tried to duck into the pits as the caution light came on. Had it worked, he would have been sitting pretty fro winning this thing. But the officials said he entered the pits when they were closed, so he had to restart at the end of the longest line -- something like 34th. He worked his way up to 13th after that before overdriving and going off track getting by Greg Biffle, which dumped him back to 19th without enough laps left to get a better finish.

* Jimmie Johnson -- 36th, Another bad day for the Hendrick standard-bearers. Jimmie was the first to suffer the stuck-gear syndrome and sank like a stone from a top 10 spot. He wound up a lap down and loses the points lead to Greg Biffle.

* Michael Waltrip -- 22nd, Had a decent run going before he spun out.

* Greg Biffle -- 14th, Played the pit strategy game again, but didn't get the breaks he needed to finish in the show. But finishing 22 spots ahead of Johnson makes him the point man atop the point standings.

* Scott Pruett -- 31st, He was in the top 10 for a bit, but the pit strategy thing left him in the Dumpster when it mattered.

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Ricky Rudd -- 2nd, Boy did I call this one wrong! Ricky nearly pulled off an upset with fuel strategy that saw him run out of gas just after crossing the finish line. I'm disappointed, because I'm eager to see Fatback McSwain celebrating another win. Best finish in years.

* Dale Jarrett -- 5th, Strategized himself into a good finish on a track that hasn't always been kind to him. Within 400 points of The Biff.

* Elliott Sadler -- 6th, Followed his teammate's strategy. And to think, he started 42nd.

* Jeremy Mayfield -- 7th, Count me among the shocked that he finished this well.

* Ron Fellows -- 8th, Started dead last. See what pit strategy can do. Highest-finishing "ringer."

* Ryan Newman -- 9th, I'm pleased he finished well, but I'm dismayed I didn't pick him. He ran incident-free all day. Too bad it didn't work out even better for him.

* Brian Simo -- 10th, Another ringer. Best finish for the Richard Childress drivers.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Robby Gordon -- 16th, Had some mechanical issues, but by far one of his best runs with this self-owned operation.

* Kyle Busch -- 40th, Wasn't immune from the Hendrick Jinx, although he suffered the most. His car broke down on pit road and spent a few laps behind the wall.

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 42nd, Before the race FOX presented him with a plaque for winning its Sexiest Driver contest. There was nothing sexy about the way he hit the wall after getting into Mike Bliss as he tried to pass him on lap 3. I think it's pretty safe to say that today we saw the 8 team kiss its Chase chances goodbye.

Next week... Gordon, Earnhardt and Johnson can forget about Sonoma when they get back to the friendly confines of Daytona on Saturday night.

2005-06-26T02:30:00.000-07:00

Week 16 -- Sonoma

I have come to appreciate this race much more than I did when I first became interested in gNA$hCAR. It used to be I didn't like the fact that many teams bring in road course specialists — or "ringers" — to drive their cars in place of the guys that run them normally. Seemed sort of like cheating. But the fact of the matter is that it makes the races more entertaining, because some of the ringers are pretty darn good and it becomes a challenge to the regulars to see how they can perform with the stiff competition.

In recent years the ringers haven't had much effect on the final outcome. All the races have been won by regulars like Jeff Gordon, Robby Gordon and Tony Stewart. Will that trend continue in 2005?

My record of predictions at the track formerly known as Sears Point has been pretty abysmal. I've been lucky to get two or three right here. But seeing as four has been my average much of this year with the oval tracks I don't think I could do much worse.

GLENN'S TEN:

* Jeff Gordon (winner) -- Jeff is an up-one-week-down-the-next sort of driver, but one thing we know for sure is that he is dominant at the road courses. And when he's on the pole -- as he is Sunday -- the rest of the field better sit up and take notice. Jeff is the defending winner of this race and has won it four times. A former Bay Area boy, a lot of his fans will be there to cheer him on. He'll make it five wins here Sunday.

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Tony Stewart -- Fastest in Happy Hour and 7th on the grid. Folks saying he's the car to beat. He'll be somewhere near the front at the end.
* Kurt Busch -- Don't know why, but this kid is good on the road courses.
* Mark Martin -- Crafty old veteran going out in style. A dark horse?
* Rusty Wallace -- Crafty old veteran who's going out. He'll get style points if he can avoid last year's disaster of running the tank dry before the finish.
* Boris Said -- I like Boris, but I don't like his car. Let's see if he can keep it running to the finish.
* Jimmie Johnson -- Nearly won the pole Friday and he'd been improving his road game. He'll be a factor, but probably not for the win.
* Michael Waltrip -- No slouch at road racing, despite the disadvantage of starting 34th. His new crew has been helping him turn things around this season.
* Greg Biffle -- This was almost the site of an early Biffle victory. A couple of years ago his crew used good strategy to get him toward the front, but his luck didn't pan out. He is having such a good year that I can't bet against him, even though he starts 41st and had problems in practice. Pit strategy is the key!
* Scott Pruett -- Ganassi always gives him good equipment, and Scott runs this course very well. A threat for the win a couple years ago. Only "ringer" I'm picking.

Others to watch: Robby Gordon (I didn't pick him because his crappy equipment continues to hamper his performance, which is a shame because this is one of his best tracks)... Ryan Newman (Usually runs well here, but I've got a bad feeling)... Joe Nemechek (Running better of late, but will he be able to avoid the mistake that takes him out of contention?)... Jamie McMurray (He can drive this course, but see my note on Nemechek)... Ricky Rudd (Last win came at this track three years ago and I was there. The drought is in no danger of being broken Sunday.)

2005-06-20T23:11:00.000-07:00

Biffle makes it five

Tony Stewart may have had the best car, but Greg Biffle had the best strategy in capturing his fifth win of the 2005 season at Michigan on Sunday. He chose to stay out when all the other leaders came in for fresh tires on the final caution, and the result was his fifth victory of the season. (Yawn!) Oh, pardon me! I’ve got nothing against Biff, but it would be nice to see some variety in Victory Lane. If not for Rousch and Hendrick there’d be no winners in gNA$hCAR these days. Just a thought...

I should have given more thought to my picks, it would appear...

GLENN'S TEN (4-for-10... This is becoming the rule rather than the exception):

* Ryan Newman (winner) -- 15th, Ryan started out with the fastest car and couldn’t close the deal. He fell back from the drop of the green and never got out of the lower end of the top 10. He drifted back a few spots late in the race to end here. And this was one of his best tracks last year.

* Brian Vickers -- 41st, Bri had a great car, as they say, until he drove it in too hard on pit road and whacked the water barrels. Tore it up pretty good and was off track quite a while.

* Kyle Busch -- 9th, Kyle didn’t make a lot of noise Sunday. He got caught at the tail end of the lead cars thanks to an untimely caution for Sterling Marlin’s flare-up in the middle of pit stops. He recovered well enough to get the top 10.

* Kasey Kahne -- 18th, Kasey’s car was junk in the beginning of the race and he never recovered.

* Mark Martin -- 3rd, Maybe the bat wings on the hood worked. Mark has looked good in just about every race this season. He bides his time and slowly works his way to the front. His fifth-place spot in the points proves it.

* Bobby Labonte -- 14th, This is a good finish for Bobby. Things are slowly improving. but Michigan is a place where he used to be competitive.

* Jimmie Johnson -- 19th, An unusually quiet day from the points leader. The car wasn’t that stout and he didn’t spend a lot of time in the top 10. An off day for Hendrick teams all around.

* Jeff Gordon -- 32nd, Did I say an off day? Jeff’s car was loose and the condition deteriorated. He wound up three laps down, one of those which he lost to Tony Stewart under the green. Very dismal day.

* Greg Biffle -- 1st, Looks like I should have favored the Roush teams over the Hendrick guys. Biffle started 25th and did what he has done so often this year -- marched his way steadily to the front. The no-stop strategy at the end proved to be the winning move. A well-deserved victory.

* Elliott Sadler -- 8th, I worried about this pick for a while, but Elliott (sans his hood decal, which blew off on the track) got a good finishing spot after all. The pit crew has been turning in some great stops this year.

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Tony Stewart -- 2nd, I shouldn’t have doubted Tony when he qualified so well. But he couldn’t turn all those laps led into his first win of the year.

* Matt Kenseth -- 4th, Hopelessly out of contention for the Chase, but about his best run of the year.

* Carl Edwards -- 5th, All the Roush cars were up near the front today. Only Kurt Busch couldn’t finish in the show.

* Joe Nemechek -- 6th, Just ‘cause he’s had a pair of top 10s in the past two weeks, don’t think I’m suddenly gonna start picking him. Although I will say that his good performance isn’t just due to luck, not with his improved equipment this season.

* Michael Waltrip -- 7th, Anyone think Dale Jr. wants his old crew back about now?

* Rusty Wallace -- 10th, Should have picked him this week instead of last!

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 17th, Dale’s car was junk all day. He persevered to get an OK finish. But his Chase hopes may be about gone.

* Robby Gordon -- 39th, They say his engine package is improving. The engine might be, but something else in the car kept it from finishing on the lead lap. And after an 8th starting spot too. Sonoma is next week, where he has been a dominant force. I can’t see him threatening with this sort of continued luck.

Next week... We visit the undulations of the road course in the hills at Sears Point. (No, I refuse to call it Infineon!)

2005-06-19T01:50:00.000-07:00

Week 15 -- Michigan

It's Father's Day, and what better way to celebrate than by letting Dad pop a cold one and kick back to enjoy some gNA$hCAR on the tube. Unfortunately that won't be me. I have projects that beckon today, so I will tape this race and do a fast-forward through later. I might linger a bit longer than with other races, however, because Michigan is a blast to watch. The track is wide and fast, and there is usually plenty of action.

GLENN'S TEN:

* Ryan Newman (winner) -- Another race, another pole for the Rocket Man. What else is new? Getting the win to go with the top starting spot, which is what Ryan will do today. We've seen the best and worst from the Alltel Dodge at this track -- fiery engine failures and stirring comeback wins. I think Ryan's got his act together enough this time round that he won't need a miracle comeback. He'll just run away from the competition at the end.

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Brian Vickers -- The kid has been proving he's to be taken seriously. OK, I'll take him seriously this week.
* Kyle Busch -- KB and Vickers have the same car development program. Kyle is hammering on the door for a win. Young guns love Michigan.
* Kasey Kahne -- Can Kasey overcome Evernham's engine woes?
* Mark Martin -- With his "Batman Begins" paint scheme he'd like to win one for the race sponsor. He'll fly like a bat toward the front.
* Bobby Labonte -- Bobby's narrow loss to Jimmie Johnson a few weeks ago wasn't a fluke. The crash at Pocono robbed him of a good finish. Labonte's program is on the mend, and this week he'll prove it.
* Jimmie Johnson -- A big day for Hendrick? Why not. He made big gains in the points last week.
* Jeff Gordon -- Should do well here, but will he be griping all day about the car being too tight in traffic? You bet. And he'll still grab a top 10.
* Greg Biffle -- Every driver has a bad day, as Greg did at Pocono. However, most drivers aren't the Biff, who will right the ship this weekend.
* Elliott Sadler -- I wanted to pick Dale Jarrett. I really did. But if i can't bring myself to take him, I'll take his teammate instead.

Also watching: Tony Stewart (had an awesome car in practice and qualifying. But I fear something's gonna ruin his day)... Kurt Busch (should never underestimate the Roush drivers)... Dale Jarrett (multi-Michigan wins, but I just don't feel the love here this week).

And where is... Dale Earnhardt Jr.? 41st(!) This weekend will tell us if the wheels truly have fallen off the wagon.

2005-06-16T00:59:00.000-07:00

Results from the Flat Tire 500

I'm getting bad about keeping up with these races. Things have been busy lately, hence the excuse for this late update. I taped Sunday's race and condensed a five-hour telecast down to about two-and-a-half hours by fast-forwarding through the dull moments. But were any of them really that dull? With all the flattened Goodyears littering the garage at the end of the day they could have ground them up to resurface the the track and make it more "grippy" for the July race at Pocono. That was a pretty ugly stat, all those flats. I saw something like 15 near the end of the race, many of them belonging to Dale Earnhardt Jr. Tony Stewart got his fender ripped off like a sardine can being opened after his tire went down. And then there was "Flyin'" Ryan Newman, whose flat late in the race put him into the wall and spoiled a good finish.

My lackluster performance ought to teach me not to pick off the top of my head next time...

GLENN'S TEN (3-for-10... thanks to a few flat tires):

* Jimmie Johnson (winner) -- 6th, Jimmie's car wasn't dominant as it was here twice last year. In fact, he never led a lap. Not a horrible finish, but unexpected.

* Jeff Gordon -- 9th, At least it's not a DNF. He had to come from 31st on the grid, and most of the move forward was due to pit strategy. He two-tire stopped his way into the top 10, but never led.

* Bobby Labonte -- 26th, There are two things you can count on with Bobby when he's having a decent day -- either he'll be right up near the front at the checkers or he'll put himself into the wall on the last lap. He chose the latter approach, bringing out the final caution that allowed the race to finish under the yellow.

* Ryan Newman -- 34th, Ryan blew two tires. The first didn't hurt him too bad, but the second one sent him cruising into the SAFER barrier with five laps to go.

* Rusty Wallace -- 11th, Ol' Rusty was just mediocre enough to miss the show. Thanks, Russ.

* Mark Martin -- 7th, Mark looked like he might be the guy to sneak up and get the win. He kept moving forward through the pit stops, but I think he got overhauled on the final restart when he had been running third.

* Tony Stewart -- 29th, Tearing up the fender thanks to a flat tire didn't help his day.

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 33rd, Junior played the flat tire game too, but he had other problems that put him five laps down early. At the end of the race he was asked if there would be any more crew changes, given the recent string of disappointing performances. Dale's reply: "I just hope they don't change the driver." He's 500 points back now, and fading fast in the race for the Chase. Can this season be saved?

* Elliott Sadler -- 21st, I put my faith in him and he has a poor day. Being penalized for speeding in the pits didn't help.

* Greg Biffle -- 30th, The hood went up on Biff's car and killed a shot at a decent finish. He had been a top-5 car. Bad news for Biffle, but good news for Jimmie Johnson, who gained a bunch of points.

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Carl Edwards -- 1st, Second win of the season came as Brian Vickers was stalking him and the caution flew for Labonte's crash. First time the king of the backflip had ever raced at Pocono, so not too shabby a performance, coming from a 29th starting spot.

* Brian Vickers -- 2nd, OK, I'll admit that Brian's finally for real. He led the most laps in this one, and very nearly had the victory. Wonder what might have been if the caution hadn't flown on the last lap.

* Joe Nemechek -- 3rd, What an awesome finish for the #01. If Joe could have more days like this one he could be a contender.

* Kyle Busch -- 4th, My prediction that the rookies would struggle here didn't come to pass. This kid's gonna win one soon.

* Michael Waltrip -- 5th, Qualified on the pole(!) and at one point had an 8-second lead over the rest of the field. Alas, he couldn't overcome getting caught in traffic late in the race.

* Kevin Harvick -- 8th, Finished right where he started.

* Jamie McMurray -- 10th, Should have picked him over Rusty.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Terry Labonte -- 12th, Maybe part-time retirement is benefiting his performance.

* Kurt Busch -- 22nd, Hey, check those point standings... Where's Kurt? Not in the top 10.

* Jason Leffler -- 40th, This guy can't buy a break. He spun out and looked like it would be without incident, then Kyle Petty somehow managed to plow into him. Guess we can't blame Leffler for this one. Don't worry, Joe Gibbs Racing will give him plenty of time to contemplate his bad luck and lack of driving skills soon -- even if they are trying to convince the rest of us that no changes are planned. Yeah, famous last words.

Next week... Ryan Newman fans can take heart -- it's time for Michigan!

2005-06-11T23:36:00.000-07:00

Week 14 -- Pocono

I'm gonna have some fun this week. I'm going to throw everything I might know about this race (which isn't much) out the window and just pick off the top of my head. I couldn't do a lot worse than I've been doing (could I?). Pocono is sort of a wild card anyhow, with its funky tri-oval configuration, It's got the longest straightaway of any track the Cup guys run on, and three turns that are each very different from the other two. It's a speedway and a road course rolled into one.

GLENN'S TEN:

* Jimmie Johnson (winner) -- JJ swept this track last year, and given his accomplishment of three in a row in the Coco-Cola 600 at Lowe's a couple weeks ago there is nothing to suggest he couldn't do the same here at Pocono.

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Jeff Gordon -- Three straight DNFs. It's time to turn that stat around.
* Bobby Labonte -- Always rises to the occasion at Pocono.
* Ryan Newman -- Might surprise someone Sunday and get that first victory of the season.
* Rusty Wallace -- Just have a feeling.
* Mark Martin -- Has been running consistently well when bad luck doesn't intervene.
* Tony Stewart -- Can Tony have an uneventful day that ends with a top 10?
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- Still trying to find the swing with his new crew chief. He'll either hit it or meet with calamity early in the day.
* Elliott Sadler -- Each week I don't pick Elliott he proves me wrong by getting a top 10, so this week I'll throw caution to the wind.
* Greg Biffle -- I'm not sure I feel comfortable with this pick, but I can't pick against a guy on the sort of roll he's on.

ALSO WATCHING: Dale Jarrett (Talk about throwing caution to the wind! Dale's been good here in the past, but I'm not sure about his ability to keep the car running)... Kyle Busch (Been hot lately, but this isn't your typical speedway)... Kasey Kahne (If the car is good he'll be good too, but Ray Evernham seems to have a tough time keeping his cars in good shape)... Jeremy Mayfield (Ditto.)

2005-06-05T22:47:00.000-07:00

The Biff gets number four

I've decided that the way I can instantly improve my mediocre weekly predictions is to forget about the rest of the field and just pick Ryan Newman and all the Hendrick and Roush drivers for my top 10. Bet I'd get at least six or seven "hits" a week. The only hits we saw a lot of Sunday seemed to involve Tony Stewart, who was having one of his angry-Tony afternoons. Jimmie Johnson after the race described him as an angry pit bull, which I think is pretty apt. best to stay out of his way and stay out of trouble. Unfortunatelty, Jeff Gordon wasn't able to stay out of the way and got the raw deal of the afternoon. (More on that in a moment.)

Meanwhile, Greg Biffle did what he's been doing a lot this season -- finding his way to the front and into Victory Lane. My picks were a bit less victorious.

GLENN'S TEN (5-for-10... could have been better):

* Ryan Newman (winner) -- 8th, Ryan's car was good, but never a force to be reckoned with. He probably hurt his chances of a top 5 by not taking tires on his final pit stop. Some of the guys who took two or four tires blew by him in the waning laps. Still, he's fourth in the points and that's not a bad place to be.

* Kasey Kahne -- 35th, Kasey's car stunk all day. It stunk more once he hit the inside wall.

* Mark Martin -- 3rd, Mark drives this place well and did again Sunday, staying out of trouble and making a late run to snag a couple of extra spots.

* Jeff Gordon -- 39th, If you watch the replay and listen to Jeff tell the story, it looks an awful lot like Tony Stewart helped put him into the wall on lap 41. Whatever it was, Jeff wound up with a crumpled car and retired to the garage for his thirs straight DNF. He's fallen out of the top 10 and is getting dangerously close to the 400-point cutoff for the Chase. This is not a good situation.

* Jimmie Johnson -- 4th, Looked good all day, but he only took 2 tires on the last stop and that contributed to his inability to hang on to 2nd place.

* Kyle Busch -- 2nd, The kid is turning it on as the season progresses. He'll be getting his first win much sooner than Kasey Kahne got his, I predict. But let's see how he handles Pocono...

* Greg Biffle -- 1st, Typical Biffle day. He started outside pole thanks to the qualifying rainout Friday, and although he wasn't the early leader the car got better throughout the afternoon. This is his fourth win in 13 tries this season and inches him closer to the points lead.

* Tony Stewart -- 15th, Tony never had the car to run up front, and when he wasn't a lap down he was busily bumping into the likes of Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson or Scott Riggs. Too bad there were no post-race interviews with Smoke. I would have loved to hear his explanation for why he turned today's race into a contact sport.

* Dale Jarrett -- 23rd, Things looked good early, but the car faded about midway.

* Carl Edwards -- 16th, The only one of the Roush drivers to struggle a bit.

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Rusty Wallace -- 5th, For a while it looked like Rusty might made a bid for the win. He never quite got there.

* Brian Vickers -- 6th, Might be time to start picking him for some top 10s. But like his teammate, let's see how he handles Pocono.

* Matt Kenseth -- 7th, Nice to see the former champ with another good run.

* Kurt Busch -- 9th, KB made an early exit from this race in September. Not the case Sunday, as he ran consistently at the low end of the top 10.

* Elliott Sadler -- 10th, Set a career high for laps led in a single race. The power steering gave up late and he had to settle for this spot.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Jeremy Mayfield -- 14th, Fastest in practice, but as usual it doesn't get him the win.

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 22nd, New crew chief. Gonna take some time for things to gel. He's running out of time.

* Dave Blaney -- 36th, Provided the harrowing moment of the race when he wrecked and then spun back up the track into the path of Ken Schrader and was spectacularly T-boned. Everyone was OK.

Next week... The track that's sort of a speedway, sort of a road course, sort of a mystery for the car setup guys... Pocono.

2005-06-04T21:55:00.000-07:00

Week 13 -- Dover

This weekend we visit the white cliffs of Dover. I'm referring to those treacherous high-banked concrete corners at the track not-so-affectionately known as the Monster Mile. It's a good thing I'm not a driver in the Cup series, because if my record at this track in the EA Sports sim version of this race is any indication, I'd be holding up the walls before the end of lap 400. Sadly, that will be the fate of many drivers Sunday afternoon. But someone's gotta win it, so let's see if I can get one right for a change.

GLENN'S TEN:

* Ryan Newman (winner) -- Qualifying got rained out Friday, so the Rocket Man didn't get a chance to qualify for the pole at a track where he has dominated the past five visits. Three of those trips have resulted in victories. Ryan just seems to be one of those drivers who likes Dover. He's been running more consistently of late and is overdue for a win. Go, Flyin' Ryan!

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Kasey Kahne -- Might have won here last September if not for an oil spot on the track with about 15 laps remaining.
* Mark Martin -- Last points win came here in September. No reason to think he couldn't repeat.
* Jeff Gordon -- Gotta put on a good show for the sponsor. DuPont is headquartered a few miles from the track.
* Jimmie Johnson -- If Jeff can do it, so can Jimmie. Still trying to recover some of those lost leader points.
* Kyle Busch -- Perhaps he'll be more patient than he was Saturday in the Busch race. He had the car to beat and destroyed it with an ill-advised pass on Kevin Harvick. Hopefully he got the wrecking out of his system.
* Greg Biffle -- Leading a charmed existence. When things are going well...
* Tony Stewart -- Tony seems to come around when he comes to this place. He may take a while to get to the front, but he'll get there.
* Dale Jarrett -- I have to believe that his "practice" in the Busch race will pay off.
* Carl Edwards -- I can't think of anyone I like better for my last pick. I'll probably think of someone by Sunday night.

2005-05-29T21:18:00.000-07:00

A cautionary tale at Lowe's

Take a deck of cards and shuffle it enough times and eventually even the jokers will find their way to the top. That's sort of what happened in the Caca-Cola 600 tonight. Hendrick-owned cars essentially dominated the competition until all but one of them got caught a lap down after making untimely green-flag pit stops. But then there was the one who got the benefit of the all-time record 22 cautions that juggled the pack substantially. That someone was Jimmie Johnson, who captured his third straight 600 in thrilling fashion, nipping Bobby Labonte at the finish line after a 6-lap shootout.

This was an entertaining race apart from the yellow fever that raged between laps 200 and 300. All that caution time, including the red flag following Joe Nemechek's wreck with 10 laps to go, took me right to the end of my 6-hour video tape. FOX should just start tacking on an extra hour for all its broadcasts this year. I don't think many of them haven't gone into OT. My predictions got hosed late in the race, as they always seem to. Here's how I did:

GLENN'S TEN (4-for-10. Sigh):

* Tony Stewart (winner) -- 24th, It was clear from the start that this was a mediocre-Tony night. The car seemed to forever be in the high-teens to twenties. He got caught a couple of laps down after briefly surfacing in the top 10.

* Ryan Newman -- 5th, Could we please put a little more of that black duct tape over the ugly new Alltel logo? The car did what it always does -- started out fast and faded. He suffered some front end damage that was repaired, leaving him a lap down. He eventually got back on the lead lap and raced his way forward, but the high attrition is what got him here. Still, we'll take the points.

* Jimmie Johnson -- 1st, Jimmie didn't make much noise until the final few laps. His car was in the top 10 most of the night, but the caution shuffles left him deep in the field at one point. He kept his nose clean and used that Hendrick power to muscle his way past Bobby Labonte on a thrilling last-lap pass. Did he lead more than two laps all night?

* Jeff Gordon -- 30th, For the second time in his career Jeff was done in by a crumbling track. Some of the rubber patching material they used on the track surface came up and found its way through the front grill. Before that, Jeff had a solid-looking car. He worked his way back to the front, but then got caught a lap down after a green-flag pit stop when Kasey Kahne brought out a caution. Then he suffered more terminal damage when teammate Brian Vickers caused a wreck right in front of him. DNF. Another big hit in the points.

* Kyle Busch -- 25th, The kid had a car to beat, but like Gordon he was trapped a lap down on the Kahne caution. Wound up a couple laps behind.

* Kurt Busch -- 43rd, Big Bro made brother Kyle's night look not so bad. Kurt made a solo spinout into the wall on the eighth lap, was out of action for about 150 laps, then came back and wrecked again. Another DNF for the 2004 champion.

* Greg Biffle -- 6th, Not his strongest steed, but he stayed out of trouble coming from the 29th starting spot to wind up with a good finish.

* Mark Martin -- 28th, Mark got caught up in all the shuffling and was in the wrong place when Brian Vickers caused the late pile-up. His car got torn up pretty seriously. Before that, he'd had a car capable of a top 10.

* Bobby Labonte -- 2nd, The normally mild-mannered Bobby kicked his car after the finish, he was so mad. He had good reason to be. He had to start last after a transmission change and escaped all the other incidents to find himself with the lead on the final restart. But Johnson had the stronger car, and Labonte couldn't hold him off on the final lap, losing by 6 one-thousandths of a second. Labonte had to carry the FedEx colors tonight because teammate Jason Loeffler failed to qualify. A better finish FedEx will never get with Loeffler at the wheel. (With Daytona coming up in a few weeks the clock is ticking on how long he'll be in the car. Still waiting for Ward Burton's return...)

* Jamie McMurray -- 21st, Jamie overcame a brush with the wall to crawl up to the top 10, but then he suffered other problems late in the race that left him a lap behind. The top finisher of the three Ganassi cars.

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Carl Edwards -- 3rd, Got a bit too aggressive and nearly wrecked Dale Jarrett, who didn't appreciate it. He punctured a hole in his front grill and hurt his downforce, so pretty amazing he finished as well as he did.

* Jeremy Mayfield -- 4th, remember what I said about the jokers shuffling to the top of the deck eventually...

* Martin Truex, Jr. -- 7th, Top DEI finisher, despite an early tire problem that put him in the wall.

* Dale Jarrett -- 8th, I almost picked him. Experience definitely paid.

* Ken Schrader -- 9th, That deck got shuffled really good... A nice 50th birthday present. He led a few laps too.

* Rusty Wallace -- 10th, Might have been better, could have been worse. Ho-hum. He and his favorite teammate Newman were 1-2 at one point.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Mike Bliss -- 15th, Not a top 10, but hey, at least he finished better than Brian Vickers. That has to feel good.

* Joe Nemechek -- 18th, Had this race in the bag until he spun out while leading.

* Brian Vickers -- 31st, I thought I'd regret not picking him when he was running up front late in the race. But youthful impatience got the better of him. He took the air off Bill Elliott's spoiler and triggered the largest wreck of the night that took out teammate Jeff Gordon among others. Vickers didn't win any friends the past two weekends at Lowe's.

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 33rd, Vickers had company in the bonehead department. Junior's car wasn't very good most of the night, but that didn't stop him from trying to bump draft on teammate Michael Waltrip. Result: Both cars in the garage. Way ta go...

* Matt Kenseth -- 37th, If it wasn't for bad luck he'd have no luck at all. Victim of another's wreck. (Earnhardt, I think.)

* Terry Labonte -- 38th, Looked stout and led a few laps. All the Hendrick cars led tonight. But alas, he was involved in the Earnhardt wreck. He took a pretty hard lick, but apparently is OK.

Next week... 400 laps around the Monster Mile of Dover.

2005-05-29T00:55:00.000-07:00

Week 12 -- Lowe's

It seems like the gNA$hCAR season has been going on forever and yet we're only a third of the way into it with this race. The drivers will probably be feeling something like that Sunday evening as they take part in the season's longest race, the Coca-Cola 600.

There are many cool elements to the Cup series' traditional Memorial Day weekend event, not the least of which is the transition from day to night about midway through the race. And the "extra" 100 miles really separate the men from the boys, as success is determined less by how fast your car is than by how well it can endure 400 laps of high-RPM driving. For this reason alone I have to give the nod to experienced vets who know how to pace themselves and have a car to get the job done. If last week's All Star Challenge was a good indication, I think you'll see some of the same names up near the front at the end of Sunday night.

GLENN'S TEN:

* Tony Stewart (winner) -- It's time. This is Tony's type of race and his type of track. In past years he has done the "double" by racing the Indy 500 in the morning then flying to Charlotte in time for the Cup race. Too many distractions, and they hurt his finish. Not this year. He's got a fast car and is overdue for a win. The Home Depot orange looks very cool under the lights, and it looks even better in Victory Lane.

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Ryan Newman -- On the pole and without a doubt the fastest car on the track, but speed hasn't helped Ryan much here. If he doesn't blow up then he gets wrecked. I don't think he'll get wrecked this year, but I don't see him leading the pack at the checkers either.
* Jimmie Johnson -- Welcome to Johnsonville. Might as well change the name of the track in honor of the guy who very well could steal the show in this one. Needs a good run to re-establish his big points lead.
* Jeff Gordon -- 11th front row start at this track. His car was mostly mediocre in the All Star last weekend, but those notes will prove valuable.
* Kyle Busch -- It's time for Kyle to break through. This kid has a ton of talent and Hendrick power behind him. He won both the truck and Busch races here, so why not go for the triple crown on Sunday?
* Kurt Busch -- You think Kurt's gonna let little bro get all the kudos? Sibling rivalry rules, but Kurt will have to come up from deep in the field to get to the front. He'll have lots of laps to do it.
* Greg Biffle -- The Biff is knocking at the door for the points lead. Roush power will get the job done and get him a solid finish.
* Mark Martin -- Coming off a sweet victory with the All Star million in his pocket. I worry that he may have used up his good luck in that race, but I'll go with experience and quality equipment.
* Bobby Labonte -- He's starting way back in the pack so he'll need to stay out of trouble, but if he can avoid mishaps he should be able to work his way into the show.
* Jamie McMurray -- Remember when Jamie got his first Cup victory in just his second career start? It came right on this track three years ago in October. He's still looking for victory number two. Maybe he'll be nostalgic on Sunday.

Also watching: Brian Vickers (Was fast and lucky in the All Star, but he has yet to impress in a race that means anything)... Matt Kenseth (Starting third(!) and has won here before, but I fear he's got too good a starting spot. The car will crap out before the finish)... Dale Earnhardt Jr. (Slow and steady might not win the race, but if he plays the attrition game right he will be in the top 15)... Mike Bliss (The Zero is my sentimental hero. Would be nice to see him get a good finish after getting aced out of the All Star field by Vickers last weekend)... Michael Waltrip (Mikey has been doing better with Little E's former crew).

2005-05-21T00:10:00.000-07:00

The All-Star Challenge

I don't have a lot to say about this race, as it's just an exhibition and I usually stick to predicting the points races, but I will make the call for Jimmie Johnson to win it all Saturday night. It's sort of the not-in-my-house approach to prognosticating, which is the way JJ feels about Lowe's Motor Speedway, the track that bears his sponsor's name.

Yeah, I know that Ryan Newman was the fastest in practice and qualified for the pole and wants to win real bad. Maybe he will. I wouldn't be disappointed. But I don't see it happening. Hendrick and Roush have dominated the first 11 races this season, so it only makes sense that one of those guys will win the All-Star. If not Johnson then someone who hasn't already won, so I'd pick either Kurt Busch or Greg Biffle.

As for the All-Star Open to determine which of the also-rans will compete for the million bucks, I think Kyle Busch has a decent shot. He's Hendrick-powered and showing a lot of spark of late. It's a pretty sorry field he's up against, so starting near the front should be a great help, especially if things stack up on the restart (or at the start as they did last year).

Fan vote? It can't be Kasey Kahne because he's legitimately in the field after last week's win. Ken Schrader got the nod last year. How about Kyle Petty? I'm not voting for him, but I could see him as a sentimental favorite.

This ought to be fun. I'll try to watch it live this time rather than on tape.

2005-05-16T03:33:00.000-07:00

Raising Kahne in Richmond

OK, the monkey's finally off Kasey Kahne's back. Not only did he notch his first career Cup victory on Saturday night, but he did it in dominant fashion, leading most of the race's 400 laps over runner-up Tony Stewart. My only disappointment (or maybe one of several) is that I taped this race and made the mistake of logging on to the FOX Sports Web site before watching the tape. I wasn't looking for the winner, but there he was on the home page. Dang! Took all the suspense out of the finish, but it was fun to watch a first-time winner.

My most dire predictions came to pass, unfortunately, and it was a nasty evening for the Hendrick cars. It was sort of a nasty evening for me, as well, as I only notched four of the top 10.

GLENN'S TEN (4-for-10, thhhfffpt!):

* Ryan Newman (winner) -- 3rd, Nothing to be ashamed of here. He was in the top 5 all night and gave Tony Stewart a run for 2nd place at the end. Up to 8th in points and showing signs of the consistency he needs to have.

* Jimmie Johnson -- 40th, A woeful finish for the points leader. Jimmie spun into the inside wall on the backstretch on lap 80. It wasn't too bad, however, and it looked like a visit to the pits might get him back in the race. But as he was heading there something broke in the front wheels and the car hammered the wall again, this time hard enough to put him in the garage. Despite the points hit he's still number one.

* Tony Stewart -- 2nd, Tony's fun to watch when it's his night. But he didn't have anything for Kahne and he admitted as much. He was gracious in defeat, congratulating the winner.

* Kevin Harvick -- 5th, Harvick seems to excel on the short tracks at night. He suffered a speeding penalty late in the race that took him out of contention for the win, but this was a good recovery.

* Kurt Busch -- 17th, Probably the third strongest car in the field, but he got a lug nut hung up on the brake rotor and had to make an unscheduled stop under the green, which left him a lap down too long to get caught up, even when he did get the lap back.

* Greg Biffle -- 6th, A quiet night and look where he finishes.

* Carl Edwards -- 21st, Slipped back through the field and wound up a lap down.

* Mark Martin -- 15th, Didn't hear much from the Roush camp at the finish.

* Matt Kenseth -- 12th, Best run this team's had in a while. Just 65 points shy of making the cut for the Chase.

* Jeremy Mayfield -- 13th, Jeremy lets me down as usual, finishing outside the show.

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Kasey Kahne -- 1st, The FOX guys say Kasey's further along in his development as a driver than Jeff Gordon was at the same point in his career. That's a scary thought, because it could mean we'll be seeing many more wins out of this young'un.

* Kyle Busch -- 4th, The rookie comes up big. Will the #5 team be respectable again soon?

* Elliott Sadler -- 7th, Knew I should have picked him.

* Bobby Labonte -- 8th, With Stewart running so well it only makes sense that his teammate should benefit. Best luck for the #18 this year.

* Michael Waltrip -- 9th, He's got Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s crew this year -- same one that put Junior in Victory Lane last spring.

* Jamie McMurray -- 10th, Could have been 5th if not for his dust-up with Kyle Busch as everyone was scrambling for position on the final restart.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Ricky Rudd -- 11th, These guys are putting the pieces in place, little by little.

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 14th, Almost exactly where I predicted he'd finish. Falls from the top 10, but not far out.

* Rusty Wallace -- 19th, They still call him the king of the short tracks. Maybe five years ago.

* Jeff Gordon -- 39th, Broken parts, similar to Johnson's problem, sent Gordo to the garage on lap 252. I'm glad I didn't pick him, but sad he took a big hit in the standings, losing a couple of positions. He'll rebound.

Next week... The All-Star Challenge visits Lowe's for yet another Saturday night feast. No top 10 predictions from me, but I'll try to name the winner.

2005-05-14T00:11:00.000-07:00

Week 11 -- Richmond

If I were more scientific about this thing, I would pore over the past couple of year's worth of race results to figure out who's going to win Saturday night's visit to Richmond International Raceway. But sometimes I like to go with gut instincts, and this week my gut tells me that it's not good to be a Chevy guy.

I don't like feeling like this, because it spells bad news for some of my favorite drivers. It also means that we could see more of a shakeup in the points, given that most of the halfway decent drivers this year are riding Chevys or Fords, and Ford has been pretty conistent so far (as far as the Roush teammates go.) It always makes me nervous when I make most of my picks from the first five rows, but this seems to be one of those weeks...

GLENN'S TEN:

* Ryan Newman (winner) -- Let's see if we can get it right this week. Ryan missed the pole (2nd), which usually bodes well for a good finish. He runs a Dodge rather than a Chevy. He's won here before. He got rooked out of a victory last week. And most important... he has to use a backup car Saturday, which means the great qualifying effort is all for naught and he'll start from the back of the pack. Ryan loves a challenge. So do I. If he stays out of trouble he'll be popping the champagne cork Saturday night.

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Jimmie Johnson -- He's in a Chevy, but he's the points leader for a reason.
* Tony Stewart -- OK, another Chevy guy, but he's a former winner here and has the talent to get the job doen under the lights. And he's starting third.
* Kevin Harvick -- Yeah, yeah, I know... I worry greatly about this pick, but Harvick under the lights on a short track is always a potent combo.
* Kurt Busch -- Talk about potent forces on the short tracks. Kurt will bounce back from what arguably was the worst race of his career at Darlington last week.
* Greg Biffle -- The Biff is da bomb. Starts 9th, could finish first.
* Carl Edwards -- Why not? He won here Friday night.
* Mark Martin -- All Roush, all the time...
* Matt Kenseth -- All five of the Roushketeers in the show? I worry most about Matt, who is making up for his trouble-free championship season of 2003.
* Jeremy Mayfield -- Won here in September, arguably in a race he basically had to win to get into his disastrous Chase for the Cup. He's stunk ever since, but perhaps he'll be able to use his notes from the big win.

And what about... Rusty Wallace? (Winningest record on short tracks among active drivers, but trouble always seems to find him.)... Elliott Sadler? (Doesn't like this track, but almost won the Busch race Friday, and ran well here in September.)... Kasey Kahne? (On the pole, but that's almost certain doom.)... Dale Earnhardt Jr.? (I wanted to pick him. He might run top 15, but I don't like him from 27th on the grid.)... Jeff Gordon? (I've got a verrrrry bad feeling about this race. Don't get him anywhere near Kurt Busch. And oh yeah, he's driving a Chevy.)

2005-05-08T01:30:00.000-07:00

Another win for Roush

Darlington has a penchant for memorable finishes. Who will soon forget Ricky Craven and Kurt Busch dueling to the finish line two years ago? Or Jimmie Johnson capitalizing on others' misfortune to grab the win last year? Another chapter was written here Saturday night, when the race came down to a two-lap shootout with a bunch of cars on different tire strategies.

But Darlington is definitely a tire sort of track, so the guys who took none on the final caution were at a definite disadvantage. Among them was the leader, Ryan Newman. The only guy who is more disappointed with Greg Biffle taking the checkers is Newman, who didn't stand a ghost's chance in you-know-where to preserve what should have been an easy win.

All in all this was an entertaining race, and my final score card doesn't look too bad...

GLENN'S TEN (6 for 10... Pretty good.)

* Ryan Newman (winner) -- 5th, Ryan was a victim of circumstance, plain and simple. You really can't fault him for going from first to fifth on the final two laps. Had he pitted, he would have found himself at the tail end of the lead lap cars. Doing what he did and staying out meant that everyone else came in for fresh tires. Game over. The #12 looked good all night, perhaps the best run he's had since winning at Dover last September. These are the consistent runs he needs more of if he hopes to be a threat for the Cup. I'll blame this finish on Mark Martin, who spun out digging for position with about four to go.

* Jimmie Johnson -- 7th, What did in Jimmie's chances of a third straight win at the "track too tough to tame" was loose lug nuts. He had to short pit under green and overcome a lap-and-a-half deficit. His car was very good, so this finish isn't too surprising.

* Jeff Gordon -- 2nd, A guy who benefitted from the final caution. Gordon had been fading on the long runs, but on fresh tires he looked awesome all night. He easily blew by everyone on the final restart, but he didn't have enough time to catch Biffle, who got a big jump.

* Kurt Busch -- 37th, Oops. Mr. Mouth didn't get past the first lap before spinning into the inside retaining wall. Replay looks like Gordon might have "helped" him in that direction, although none of the FOX commentators pursued that angle. Later, Busch got into trouble for not following directions from gNA$hCAR officials and was summoned to the office after the race.

* Matt Kenseth -- 26th, Matt got a lap down and never made it up. His fate was sealed when he pitted under green just before a caution flew, which trapped him two laps down.

* Jamie McMurray -- 6th, Hung around the teens most of the race and kept himself in position for a good finish with all the jockeying for position on the final two laps.

* Greg Biffle -- 1st, When it's your year you just know it. I think the Biffster is filching from Kenseth's luck bank. He led the most laps, but there was no way he was going to overcome Newman's 3.5 second lead with four to go without a caution. You think maybe Martin is just a little pleased with himself for spinning out when he did, helping his teammate to Victory Lane? Third victory of the season puts pressure on Gordon to win number four...

* Sterling Marlin -- 41st, See what I get for going with a guy who finds bad luck? Sterling was in the top 10 until he dropped a cylinder and eventually had to retire from the race. Next year he'll probably retire from the sport.

* Dale Jarrett -- 15th, DJ hasn't been lighting 'em up, but he has been getting decent finishes in the teens that have kept him in the top 10. His car was average all night, but here's what average gets you if you don't hit the wall.

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 8th, What did I tell you? Started 39th and wound up with another top 10. Just wait till this team gels later in the season.

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Kasey Kahne -- 3rd, I'm proud of this kid, except for the moment late in the race where he almost wrecked himself and Jeff Gordon trying to race two-wide out of a corner. Evernham's cars seem to lack the ability to close strong, which I think is why the Gordons and Biffles have been winning all the races. I'm sort of glad he didn't finish second, lest it give the FOX guys an invitation to talk about his eight second-place finishes without a win.

* Mark Martin -- 4th, Pretty nifty to spin out running fourth with your teammate running second and after the caution still finish fourth with your guy getting the win. Don't think he planned it that way, but that's sometimes how it goes. Nice showing for Mark in his final Darlington race.

* Carl Edwards -- 9th, Overcame a slow start to be in contention for the win in the shootout. Unfortunately, Carl got a bit over eager and spun it across the line.

* Tony Stewart -- 10th, Wish I'd picked him. He just rope-a-doped his way into the show.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Kevin Harvick -- 14th, Got wrecked coming to the checkered flag.

* Ken Schrader -- 18th, Became a factor when he stayed out on old tires for the final two laps. Bad strategy. Went from second to this. Ugh.

* Jeff Burton -- 21st, Robbed of a top 10 finish by a tire vibration late in the race.

* Kyle Busch -- 23rd, The FOX guys were blathering on about how impressive a run the #5 had turned in, running up in the top 5 much of the night, when he cut a right front and mashed the wall. Think they just jinxed him.

* Jeff Green and Michael Waltrip -- They probably won't be sending each other Christmas presents this year. Green turned Waltrip into the wall on lap 7. A stunned Mikey was interviewed in the garage saying his mother taught him not to say anything when he had nothing nice to say about someone. He let his car do the talking instead, playing bumper tag with Green the rest of the night until gNA$hCAR parked him for a lap or two. Green winds up 22nd while Mikey finishes a forgettable 34th.

Next week... More of this Saturday night racing thing as we head to Richmond.

2005-05-07T00:16:00.000-07:00

Week 10 -- Darlington

As much as I enjoy night races, I'm starting to grow weary of all the
action we're starting to see under the lights in gNA$hCAR this season.
Darlington traditionally has always been a day track, but thanks to
schedule shuffling last season and the loss of the fall race here,
promoters had to do something to reward fan loyalty. So they put in
lights and moved the spring race to twilight on a Saturday.

That, the new impound rule, and the fact that the drivers only get to
race here once a year now (unless they run the Busch race) could make
for some surprises on race night.

GLENN'S TEN

* Ryan Newman (winner) -- I'm going to go out on a limb here, but maybe
not too much of one. Ryan is due for a win, and because he failed to win
the pole on Friday I think that improves his chances. Go figure. He has
run well here in the past, but got bitten by bad luck that took him out
of contention. His luck has to change eventually. And he's got one of
the spiffy new Dodge Chargers, and this just happens to be the Dodge
Charger 500, so what more fitting place to win for the sponsor? Plus, he
fell out of the top 10 last week and needs to get back on his game
quickly or he may face Championship Chase oblivion.

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Jimmie Johnson -- Talk in the garage is that Jimmie's making enemies
with some of the on-track incidents he's been involved with this season,
but he is the two-time defending race winner here.
* Jeff Gordon -- Mr. Darlington might not be dominant under the lights.
He qualified 14th. Still, look for him to be somewhere in the show.
* Kurt Busch -- Roush drivers showing their stuff this season, so why
not here? Busch is king of the short tracks under the lights, but can he
dance with the Lady in Black?
* Matt Kenseth -- Roushketeer who won Friday night's Busch race and
needs some good finishes. Starts 31st, a little further back than his
comfort zone.
* Jamie McMurray -- A Dodge. Probably one of the best in the field.
* Greg Biffle -- I'm thinking that his success so far this season might
not be a fluke, but his crash near the end of Talladega last week was.
He'll bounce back.
* Sterling Marlin -- Has always run well here. Ran the Busch race on
Friday, which will give him a slight advantage over those coming in
cold.
* Dale Jarrett -- Experience pays. I keep waiting for Dale to break out
and get some good finishes to go with his return to the top 10 in
points.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- At least one Dale is showing his mettle. He just
clawed his way back into the top 10 despite his late-lap crash last
weekend. The rebound continues Saturday night.

Also watching: ... Kasey Kahne (pole-sitter could break out here, or
break down. I'm guessing he may do the latter)... Carl Edwards (He's
been fading, but he has the Roush magic behind him)... Tony Stewart (You
never know what Smoke will do in the dark)... Kevin Harvick (Likewise.)

2005-05-02T17:07:00.000-07:00

The Force was with him

I should have known I was in big-time trouble with my picks when less than 10 laps from the finish I had seven of my remaining eight drivers in the top 10. I had dodged the Big One that wrecked 25 cars, losing just two of my drivers. I was on the verge of my best race prognostication in weeks. And then Talladega's penchant for the big wreck reared up for the second time in the same race and bit me. In what I call "The Little One," four or my cars tangled and spoiled an excellent day, not to mention thinned the field of contenders for the win.

When it came down to it, no one had anything for Jeff Gordon, who scored his fourth restrictor plate win in the last five attempts. I think they're gonna have to start calling Gordo "Mr. Restrictor" from now on.

GLENN'S TEN (4-for-10... Drat!):

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. (winner) -- 15th, The crowd went wild when Junior pulled around Gordon mid-race and led a few laps. He overcame the poor qualifying effort to hang out with the leaders most of the race, and factored into the Big One on lap 132 when he assisted Mike Wallace in wiping out in front of half the field. But Junior unfortunately was one of the cars that tangled in the lap 186 crash that spoiled my day.

* Jeff Gordon -- 1st, Jeff dominated this race from flag to flag. The green-white-checker finish gave lesser cars a chance to catch him, but with Yoda on the hood of his Pepsi machine, how could he lose?

* Jimmie Johnson -- 20th, A victim of the Little One. He took a hard lick on the inside retaining wall and was done for the day. The poor finish helped a lot of guys struggling in the points race, but he's still the leader by 230 over Kurt Busch.

* Greg Biffle -- 13th, Caught up in the Little One. Had been nowhere most of the day, going down a lap at one point, but was running up front after the Big One, thanks to the high attrition.

* Kurt Busch -- 7th, Defending champ has a decent day.

* Kevin Harvick -- 12th, He didn't run like the pole sitter for most of the day, suffering overheating problems early. But once that got cleared up, Kevin was at the point a couple of times. But he couldn't escape the Little One.

* Tony Stewart -- 2nd, This seems to be Tony's preferred finishing spot at the restrictor tracks. He had a shot at Gordon on the final lap, but the #24 was the class of the field and threw the blocks when he needed to give them.

* Mark Martin -- 33rd, One of my two drivers who got caught up in the Big One. He'd had a top 10 sort of car before that.

* Joe Nemechek -- 31st, A horrible weekend for "Front Row" Joe -- wrecked in the Busch race Saturday and then again in Sunday's Big One.

* Michael Waltrip -- 3rd, I had my DEI picks backward. Mikey (who runs these days with Junior's former crew) got to the front of the pack before the final caution, but Gordon passed him right back a lap or two later. He helped push Stewart past Jamie McMurray and Elliott Sadler during the final two laps. (At least I picked the top three!)

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Jeremy Mayfield -- 4th, Shows what keeping your nose clean at the big tracks can do.

* Jamie McMurray -- 5th, Looked like he might make a run at Gordon on the final restart, but he made his move too early and allowed Stewart and Waltrip to get underneath him, then he got hung out to dry.

* Elliott Sadler -- 6th, Picked McMurray as his drafting partner on the final restart. Big mistake. Went from third to this.

* Ken Schrader -- 8th!, Shows you what kind of a day it was. But Schrader knows how to drive at the restrictor tracks when he doesn't get caught in the big wreck.

* Dale Jarrett -- 9th, Another guy who kept out of trouble and got a good finish, despite a pair of pit road speeding penalties. Jumps six spots to seventh place in the points standings.

* Jeff Burton -- 10th, Bested all the RCR entries. Burton is getting better.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Matt Kenseth, 11th -- This team needed the good finish big time, but still 93 points beyond making the cut for the Chase for the Championship.

* Casey Mears -- 14th, First car a lap down.

* Martin Truex Jr. -- 21st, This kid's got a future in Cup. He won the Busch race here Saturday, but was robbed of a potential top 5 Sunday when he was caught up in the Little One. With the #1 out there running well, it looked like the good old days of DEI when they regularly fielded a competitive third team.

* Bobby Labonte -- 23rd, Bobby avoided the Big One. But the "Hard Luck Kid" couldn't avoid engine failure.

* Ryan Newman -- 39th, *Sigh* Once again a crash not of his making, but one of the few victims of the Big One who couldn't get going again long enough to preserve any points.

Next week... The death of tradition continues: Darlington in the dark on a Saturday.

2005-04-30T00:48:00.000-07:00

Week 9 -- Talladega

Perhaps it is fitting that the Cup drivers had to qualify for this race on Dale Earnhardt's birthday, as this is a track that E Sr. basically owned during his career and that his son continues to shine on in the modern era. And perhaps too it is fitting that Kevin Harvick won the pole Friday in the car that used to be Big E's ride before... well, you know.

But that's where the parallels end. Earnhardt Jr. qualified a very un-Junior like 36th, along with DEI teammate Michael Waltrip (38th). And adding to the disappointment, Little E qualified LOWER than his half bro, Kerry (31st). But fear not, fans of Driver 8. This is 'Dega, where your hero always rises to the occasion.

GLENN'S TEN:

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. (winner) -- Don't let the disappointing qualifying effort mislead you. DEI puts everything it has into preparing for the restrictor tracks, and Junior has taken worse cars to Victory Lane here. He knows how to draft his way forward, as do his teammates who will work with him on race day. Besides, it's his turn after last year's beer can melee over the yellow-flag loss to Jeff Gordon. Still trying to dig out from his early points deficit and make the top 10, and this is his best shot at doing so.

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Jeff Gordon -- Last year's win was a "fluke" -- The Pepsi scheme usually seems to bring bad luck upon the #24. But I can't argue against Hendrick power at the restrictor tracks this year. They're on their game.
* Jimmie Johnson -- If someone's gonna steal a win this year, it might be the Lowe's bunch.
* Greg Biffle -- Biff got a raw deal in the pits last weekend. He and the rest of the Roushketeers will be in the top 10 all day.
* Kurt Busch -- If Earnhardt or Johnson fail to come through, this is my pick. Kurt has proved he has the power to win on the long tracks, but now he just needs to figure out how to get the track position on the final lap. (Hint: It's not chasing Junior or Gordon.)
* Kevin Harvick -- He's on the pole, but can he close the deal? Not quite, but he'll fare better than his teammates. Watch the other three all bite the dust before lap 150.
* Tony Stewart -- My dark horse. Which Tony will show up Sunday? More importantly, will Tony's car show up for a change?
* Mark Martin -- I'm starting to feel bad this is Martin's last season. He's a portrait of poise when it comes to working his way through the pack each week. Look for a top 5.
* Joe Nemechek -- Joe drives well at the big tracks. With Hendrick power under the hood he'll make some noise on Sunday.
* Michael Waltrip -- If Earnhardt Jr. gets to the front it will take a teammate's help. Mikey's the helper, but will he be able to hang on to the top 10 when things shake out?

Also watching: Elliott Sadler (Can he keep off his lid here for a change?)... Ryan Newman (Restrictor tracks have been uncharitable)... Ricky Rudd (Getting better and sat on pole here last year)... Casey Mears (One of the Ganassi guys has to carry the torch. Could it be the #41?)

2005-04-24T20:16:00.000-07:00

Deserted in the desert

There's simply no delicate way to say this, so I'll just be blunt: That sucked! I'm not just talking about Kurt Busch winning the race, which is in itself enough to spoil the evening. I'm referring to my abysmal picks performance. I should have known I was in for a rough night when I had 7 of 10 in the show at midway. That was before mediocre drivers started using pit strategy to move forward, and the favorites started having problems. The result was one of my most "off" predictions in many moons.

...And speaking of moons, we didn't see too much of the almost-full moon that hung over Phoenix Saturday night, thanks to the cloud cover that dropped rain about two hours before the green flag fell. Luckily, the crews got the track dry and it stayed that way until the checkers fell.

GLENN'S TEN (2-for-10 -- Aaaaarrrrgghhh!!!):

* Jimmie Johnson (winner) -- 15th, Jimmie had the look of a winner early on, making slow yet steady progress forward. Then he got shuffled backward on pit stops and wound up in a scuffle with Tony Stewart and others late in the race. This ends a streak of 13 consecutive top 10's for the #48 bunch.

* Greg Biffle -- 41st, Got a piece of Mike Bliss on pit road and damaged the radiator. This after having the second strongest car before the mishap. Ended the night behind the wall.

* Jeff Gordon -- 12th, The curse of winning the pole rears its ugly head. Jeff never had a car capable of the win. He led a bit near the closing stages, but only because he stayed out on old tires.

* Rusty Wallace -- 36th, Rusty had a crappy race, precipitated by his backslide through the field before his crash with Ricky Rudd.

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 4th, Junior didn't look like much of a factor until the end of the race. He just stayed out of trouble and snuck into the top 5. This is becoming his signature this season. Almost back to the top 10 in points, and Talladega is... next week!

* Kurt Busch -- 1st, Had the dominant car all night. He deserved to win, as much as I hate to say it. I liked the door-banging move past Jeff Gordon as he was making his final charge to the front. He says he got a little tight out of the turn. Yeah. Right. Martinsville wasn't that long ago. Busch is all class -- Did you catch the comment about Michael Waltrip in the post-race interview? They asked him what he thought about Mikey clinging so tenaciously to the chase for the lead: "Yeah, I couldn't believe that..." Like Mikey shouldn't have been there to begin with. Just another entry in Busch's foot-in-mouth quotebook.

* Tony Stewart -- 33rd, Tony couldn't buy a break. Got his front grill bashed in on pit road, which led to overheating issues. Never did get him fixed up, then he got caught up in the wreckage with Jimmie Johnson and some others late in the race. Finished 7 laps down.

* Matt Kenseth -- 42nd, Can we safely count Kenseth out of the championship hunt for 2005? The car was halfway decent until he blew a right front and plowed the wall.

* Mark Martin -- 16th, Could have been better if not for the pit strategy bids that left him mid-pack late when he had been in the top 10.

* Kevin Harvick -- 19th, Symptomatic of my bad luck tonight, Harvick was on pace to finish 9th or 10th until he ran out of gas on the last lap.

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Michael Waltrip -- 2nd, Mikey wanted this one bad and almost had it. He got a little too friendly with the wall while trying to chase down Busch, brushing it twice. Best finish for the #15 in many moons, and it didn't come at a superspeedway.

* Jeff Burton -- 3rd, Should have gone with my intuition here. Best run in nearly two years at a track where he won twice with Roush.

* Brian Vickers -- 5th, Wouldn't have predicted this at all. Brian finally gets a decent finish in Cup. He contended for the win early. lack of experience and inferior team still are liabilities.

* Bobby Labonte -- 6th, I am still a doubting Thomas until I see more of these finishes. Good run nonetheless.

* Carl Edwards -- 7th, Got nearly three laps down and recovered after his solo spin and tire problem. Had it not been for that he might have been in Victory Lane instead of his teammate. Had the best car near the finish.

* Kyle Busch -- 8th, Hendrick's B-Team drivers both come through under the lights. Kyle led a few laps, thanks to tire strategy.

* Johnny Sauter -- 9th, ANY time you see the "Lethal Weapon's" name in the show you know it's been a brutal night for the oddsmakers.

* Joe Nemechek -- 10th, The Hendrick engines are getting Joe closer to the front row at the finish.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Elliott Sadler -- 11th, His paint scheme turned to the dark side of the Force and got him a decent finish.

* Ryan Newman -- 14th, At least he didn't fall a lap down this time. Did his typical fade in the closing laps. Don't know if it's just the new Dodge Chargers that are giving him grief, new tires, impound/testing rules or what. This team just doesn't have the spark it had a couple of seasons ago.

Next week... Dale Jr. gets a chance to put his season back on the fast track at Talladega.

2005-04-22T23:51:00.000-07:00

Week 8 -- Phoenix

Everything old is new again when it comes to this race. We're used to Phoenix by now, having seen it once a season for something like the last 16 years. But we've never seen it twice in one year, nor on a Saturday night under the lights. That's what ought to make this race something special as gNA$hCAR strives for more prime time action. Will this one turn out to be anything like the great short track night races at Bristol and Richmond? This track's a mile, but it has characteristics of a short track and a road course all rolled in to the higher speeds we're accustomed to on the speedways. Ought to be a good one.

Now... who will be in the top 10 when it's all over?

GLENN'S TEN:

* Jimmie Johnson (winner) -- No reason, except that the law of averages says he's due for another win. Greg Biffle and Jeff Gordon can't be the only two-timers this season!

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Greg Biffle -- This guy's starting to scare me. Could we be seeing another Roush championship run in the making? Comes off a huge win at Texas and a victory Friday night in the Busch race here.
* Jeff Gordon -- Still trying for his first career victory at this track. He'll have to wait a bit longer, but he is on the pole for the first time.
* Rusty Wallace -- I just have a feeling he'll be in the top 10.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- Won the last Cup race held at this track. Still clawing his way up in the points, so this one is important.
* Kurt Busch -- It's close to home (Vegas) so why not? Needs to recover from streak of bad weeks and will.
* Tony Stewart -- At home in the darkness.
* Matt Kenseth -- Waiting for the 2003 champ to turn it up. He's on the fringes of oblivion in the points chase.
* Mark Martin -- Mark working magic in his final season. Maybe I've had him pegged all wrong.
* Kevin Harvick -- Another nightowl. Ran well here Friday.

ALSO WATCHING: Carl Edwards (Been slumping after hot start)... Jeff Burton (Has won here before and usually runs well)... Sterling Marlin (More 2-tire strategy now that he's making noise in the points?)... Ryan Newman (I've got a bad feeling about this).

2005-04-17T21:43:00.000-07:00

Nine races, nine winners

Greg Biffle ran away with the race in Texas on Sunday. Yawn. He started dead last in his backup car and roared through the field to dominate the competition, leading the most laps en route to his second victory of the season. Ho-hum. Forgive me for not dancing in the aisles over Bif's big win, but the Biffster is boring. He's finally living up to his potential as a decent driver, but like all of Roush's racers it's all about business first, personality second. I know that Biffle fans would say so what, we'll take business and a winning way any day over some jokester like Kenny Wallace or Michael Waltrip who rarely find their way to the top 10, let alone victory lane. I guess I just wish the Biffles, Busches and Kenseths of the Roush camp were a little more interesting to watch while they're dominating the competition. Think Carl Edwards could teach the Biffster to do some backflips?

GLENN'S TEN (3-for-10... I stunk!):

* Kasey Kahne (winner) -- 35th, Kasey ruined his chances when something broke on his car and he spun hard into the wall inside of 80 laps to go. He had one of the strongest cars in the field yet never led.

* Jeff Gordon -- 15th, The #24 crew fixed a lot of problems with the car and ran strong early, but then Jeff faded and nearly went a lap down at one point.

* Jimmie Johnson -- 3rd, No matter how mediocre a day he has, Johnson always seems to find a way to the front by the checkers. That's why he'll be champion at the end of the season. He fell a bit shy of second on Sunday.

* Kurt Busch -- 7th, He stayed out of trouble for a change and got a decent finish.

* Matt Kenseth -- 18th, Thought Kenseth might be a contender, but the car went soft late in the race.

* Elliott Sadler -- 28th, Defending race champ struggled all day, then had mechanical troubles.

* Mark Martin -- 20th, What happened? He had a top 10 going.

* Tony Stewart -- 31st, Led a bunch of laps early, faded a bit, then the engine blew up with about 40 to go.

* Ryan Newman -- 16th, Typical Newman. He stuck pretty close to my scenario, except for the part where he led the first 50 laps -- he didn't. He went a lap down and took about 200 laps to get it back, then struggled up to where he finished. This was his 30th pole in 123 starts, and what does he have to show for it? Not enough.

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 9th, Junior comes through for me at the track where he got his first career win. Made slow, steady progress to record another top 10. Up to 15th in points.

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Greg Biffle -- 1st, I've already ragged on the Biffster, but I will say I knew I was in trouble not picking him after he'd passed about half the field by the time the third caution waved after lap 20. He deserved the win, even if it wasn't a particularly exciting one.

* Jamie McMurray -- 2nd, A country seldom heard from -- Gnassiland. He had nothing for Biffle, much like the rest of the field.

* Casey Mears -- 4th, I was rooting for Casey after the other Kasey crashed. Taking two tires on the final pit stop might have gotten him the lead, but it wasn't a race-winning move.

* Sterling Marlin -- 5th, Gnassi's vet completes the trifecta, using the two-tire strategy like his teammate Mears. Only difference was that Marlin hadn't been in a position to win. This was a better than could be expected finish.

* Michael Waltrip -- 6th, I ragged on Mikey earlier, but have to hand it to him for getting a good finish here.

* Ricky Rudd -- 8th, The Fatback Factor is starting to have an effect. Rudd's been running better lately. Now, when do we see him in Victory Lane again?

* Rusty Wallace -- 10th, A good day for veteran drivers. But let's hope we see the Blue Deuce back next week and not the puke yellow Kodak colors.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Jeremy Mayfield -- 11th, The only one of the Evernham Dodges that didn't encounter problems. He led a bit at the beginning of the race, but went down a lap to Biffle at one stage.

* Jason Leffler -- 36th, At some point we have to stop making excuses for why he keeps getting into wrecks and come to the inevitable conclusion that he simply isn't very good.

* Bobby Labonte -- 38th, Another wreck not of his making. Gotta be wondering when the bad luck ends.

Next week... An early visit to the Arizona desert.

2005-04-16T11:25:00.000-07:00

Week 7 -- Texas

Welcome to Texas, where everything's bigger including the racing action. This year the Texas Motor Speedway will host two races for the first time. We start off with the traditional April date, revisiting the site of Elliott Sadler's victory a year ago. The Labonte brothers will no doubt be in the spotlight Sunday when they race before the hometown fans, but I look for some other names to be among the top 10.

GLENN'S TEN:

* Kasey Kahne (winner) -- It has to happen eventually. Kasey keeps racking up those second places, so there's only one spot higher that he can finish. He was second here last year, and both the Evernham Dodges qualified well (2nd and 3rd) on Friday. The kid can't wait to get the monkey off his back, and this just might be where he finally does it.

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Jeff Gordon -- Jeff struggled in final practice, but he qualified 7th and ran well here last year before battery problems sunk his chance for a win. This is one of the tracks on which Gordon has never won, but that could change this year. I think he'll overcome his practice woes to have a good day Sunday.
* Jimmie Johnson -- He'll keep the string of top 10's alive.
* Kurt Busch -- If he doesn't get punted into the wall this week, he should be up near the front.
* Matt Kenseth -- What's happened to this bunch this season? Matt's starting to look like the new Jeff Burton in the Roush camp. He's starting a woeful 39th on Sunday. But I look for him to make his strong, silent move toward the front 10 before the end of the day.
* Elliott Sadler -- Gotta give him the incentive factor as the defending race champion.
* Mark Martin -- The swan song season continues.
* Tony Stewart -- Might not be loud about it, but he'll be in the top 10 at day's end.
* Ryan Newman -- Might just hang on to make the show, but it will only be after leading the first 50 laps, then having a stupid pit road problem that keeps him a lap down for 200 laps before he makes it up with too few to go before the finish.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- Junior is slowly turning around his season. I'm nervous about this pick, but he did finish top 10 in this race last year and needs another good finish. A good run at a speedway would be a huge confidence booster.

ALSO WATCHING: ...Ricky Rudd (starts 5th and has been making steady improvement.) ... Greg Biffle (relegated to the rear of the field after a practice crash. Can he come all the way to the front in a backup car?) ...Carl Edwards (I had a hard time not picking him, but he could make a good showing. Probably happy to be off the short tracks.)

2005-04-11T01:19:00.000-07:00

A sweeter victory for Hendrick

Back in October, Jimmie Johnson won at Martinsville unaware that a plane carrying members of the Hendrick Motorsports organization had crashed during the race, claiming the lives of 10 people. There were no Victory Lane celebrations that day. On Sunday, Hendrick finally got the celebration it couldn't have six months ago when another of its drivers, Jeff Gordon, found his way to the checkers in stirring fashion.

This was a typical caution-filled Martinsville race, and with the exception of Carl Edwards, most of my drivers performed well throughout the day. But alas, at the end of it I was only batting .500.

GLENN'S TEN (5-for-10):

* Jeff Gordon (winner) -- Winner! It looked like it might be a long day for Super G when he developed a tire vibration about 50 laps in and had to pit under green, leaving him three laps down. But the car was awesome (as the racers like to say) and he made up all three laps with the help of cautions by around lap 280. From there it was just a matter of picking off the sitting ducks, which he did with relative ease. He only led about the last 35 laps, including the final three after a restart in which he managed to hold off Kasey Kahne for career victory number 71. Back up to 6th in points. He needed this one.

* Jimmie Johnson -- 8th, Champions find a way to get good finishes under adversity. Jimmie isn't a champion yet, but this run from 37th keeps him atop the points standings. The car started awful (he was lapped twice) and got better throughout the race.

* Bobby Labonte -- 33rd, Labonte led some of the early laps until he developed engine problems. Another in a string of disappointments for the #18 team.

* Dale Jarrett -- 14th, About where he ran all day, except for when he used pit strategy to run in the top 5 briefly.

* Kurt Busch -- 19th, If you want the winning moment, it wasn't when Gordon passed Sterling Marlin to take the lead; it was when Gordon drove in deep into the turn and put Busch into the wall to bring out the caution as he was making his charge through the field. Busch may have had the car to beat if not for that. He was leading in the closing stages and outrunning everyone while Gordon was stuck in traffic. But then on the preceding caution the leaders got stuck in traffic behind cars that stayed out, and he couldn't get free of Gordon. Then they made contact and that was that. Gordon apologized later, but I can't think he was too disappointed about the outcome. Have to wonder if there will be some payback somewhere in the future.

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 13th, The car was looking like a top 10 contender until he got into Mike Bliss (or vice-versa) and damaged his fender. Never was as good after that. Still, this will help his precarious points situation.

* Ryan Newman -- 4th, Ryan got roughed up on the opening lap when Scott Riggs got loose underneath him. He got penalized a lap for intentionally bringing out a caution, but eventually made it up and used pit strategy to take the lead with about 50 laps to go. Old tires couldn't hold off all the other frontrunners, however.

* Carl Edwards -- 38th, I think my original assessment that short tracks aren't his forté may be accurate. He spun out and got plowed by Hermie Sadler, puncturing the radiator. He was almost 180 laps down when he finally returned to the action.

* Rusty Wallace -- 5th, Rusty's downfall was the dreaded speeding penalty on pit road, which sent him to the end of the lead lap cars. He took the rest of the race to get caught up after having led early.

* Mark Martin -- 3rd, He says he hates Martinsville, but he ran darn well today. Was clearly a top 5 car.

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Kasey Kahne -- 2nd, Another 2nd place finish for the kid. He was moving up on Gordon near the end, but three laps wasn't enough to do anything with him.

* Sterling Marlin -- 6th, Counting the weeks until the end of the season, when he will likely be out of the Coors Light Dodge. He stayed out on old tires to gain track position and led the race until Jeff Gordon tracked him down.

* Ricky Rudd -- 7th, Liked his car all day and it showed with the good run. Is he on track to end the winless drought soon?

* Elliott Sadler -- 9th, A popular finish in front of a hometown crowd.

* Joe Nemechek -- 10th, Front Row Joe finishes where he started.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Jeremy Mayfield -- 15th, Shot him self in the foot with a penalty, but led a bunch of laps early. First time in 20 races he's led here.

* Scott Riggs -- 21st, Pole-sitter had a rough day.

* Tony Stewart -- 26th, I was going to kick myself for not picking him when he led the way early. He looked like the car to beat, leading the most laps, until the wheel came off (literally) inside 100 to go. He finished 7 laps down.

* Kyle Busch -- 39th, He tangled with Mike Bliss and didn't fare too well. He had been in the top 15.

Next week... Back to the cookie-cutter ovals at texas Motor Speedway.

2005-04-10T02:15:00.000-07:00

Week 6 -- Martinsville

This weekend we get more short-trackin' action with the shortest track on the Nextel Cup circuit, Martinsville Speedway in Virginia. This place doesn't have the allure of Bristol, but the half-mile "paperclip" nonetheless offers plenty of challenges. We will remember that this was the race where Rusty Wallace snapped his three-year winless streak, and the track's poor condition took its toll on Jeff Gordon's car when a loose piece of concrete bounded up and pulverized one of Jeff's front fenders. The track was repaired after that race, and now is in superb shape.

Scott Riggs snapped up his first career pole here on Friday. But who will prevail at the end of the Advance Auto Parts 500?

GLENN'S TEN:

* Jeff Gordon (winner) -- I believe in Jeff, despite the fact he's starting 16th. If he can avoid the kind of bad luck he had at Bristol last week (cutting a tire with about five laps to go) he should find a way to the front at a track that has been very kind to him over the years.

THE REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Jimmie Johnson -- It just doesn't make sense to pick against Mr. Consistency.
* Bobby Labonte -- He won the truck race Saturday. His Cup success hasn't been good so far this year, but this is a track where that could easily change. He's starting 6th, ahead of teammate Tony Stewart. A good omen.
* Dale Jarrett -- Starts 32nd, but he has been showing his old ability to stay out of trouble and move toward the front. This is a track that favors veterans and rewards patience.
* Kurt Busch -- Like Jimmie Johnson, he's finding ways to get the job done. He has a knack for short tracks and will be looking to bounce back after being taken out in a crash at Bristol.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- Has to dig himself out of a 26th-place starting spot, but he's good on these short tracks. Needs another run like Bristol to make a move in the points.
* Ryan Newman -- Barely missed the pole. Which Ryan will show up this week? The one who runs up front all day or the one who loses a couple laps early due to something stupid like cut tires and spends half the race trying to dig himself out? I'm hoping the former.
* Carl Edwards -- Starting 36th. Maybe the short tracks aren't his forté, but I'm gambling that he'll have a good race to make up for last week's early woes.
* Rusty Wallace -- Defending race champion has to be motivated. Something will happen to screw him out of the win, however. Trust me on this. Still, I think he'll sneak into the top 10.
* Mark Martin -- Giving yet another nod to experience.

ALSO WATCHING: Tony Stewart (starts 7th and may make me sorry I didn't pick him)... Kevin Harvick (showed last week that he knows how to win. Can he make it two in a row?)

2005-04-03T21:20:00.000-07:00

Harvick finally wins one

Who says that crime doesn't pay? The same week that Kevin Harvick's crew chief, Todd Barrier, starts his suspension for tampering with the #29's fuel tank during a qualifying run, the team responds by driving into Victory Lane at Bristol. Maybe Harvick should go without his crew chief every week!

This year's Food City 500 lived up to its reputation, delivering lots of lead changes and wrecks. Apart from the guys who got caught up in the crashes, my predictions looked halfway decent.

GLENN'S TEN (5-for-10... halfway!):

* Jeff Gordon (winner) -- 15th, One word: Tires. Make it two words: Bad tires. Jeff got down a couple of laps after his first tire problem. He made up both laps and had worked his way up to fourth before he cut another tire within about five laps of the finish. Good thing there were lots of cars many laps down.

* Rusty Wallace -- 13th, Rusty was on a rail early, leading a good chuink of the first 200 laps. But when he had his own tire issues and got two laps down on a caution, he never rebounded like Gordon was able to do.

* Kurt Busch -- 35th, What a tough way to end his spring Bristol win streak. He was on pace to get a top 10, but then Jeff Burton got turned around by Jimmie Johnson and Busch barreled head-on into him. A very scary crash, but the worst of it seemed to be that Busch got the wind knocked out of him. Wrong place, wrong time.

* Ryan Newman -- 30th, Ryan found the wall and spent some time in the garage. Another frustrating Bristol finish.

* Elliott Sadler -- 2nd, Started on the pole but didn't make much noise until the last couple hundred laps. Then he used some good pit stops to work his way back into contention.

* Kevin Harvick -- 1st, Talk about shooting himself in the foot! With his crew chief out on suspension, Harvick also lost a good qualifying spot and went to the back with carburetor problems. He also was penalized (sent to the end of the line) for heading to pit road under a red flag. Nonetheless, he overcame all the adversity with a dominant car and skillful driving. I wonder if this will be the start of a comeback for "Happy". He's solidly in the top 5 in points.

* Jimmie Johnson -- 6th, Can we call it a bad day when Johnson finishes outside the top 5? He kept the car clean all day until he got sandwiched against the wall by Michael Waltrip late in the race. He came in for four tires and repairs and worked his way back to a good finish. He might have given Harvick a run to the checkers if not for the mishap. Now 96 points in front of the field.

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 4th, Had a very quiet run to the top 5. Avoided trouble and had a decent car. Needed this one to save what's looking so far like a bad season.

* Tony Stewart -- 3rd, had a top 10 car all day. He benefitted from Matt Kenseth's and Jeff Gordon's bad fortune late in the race.

* Mark Martin -- 31st, Got caught up in the 14-car pileup and spent many laps behind the wall. Car looked average before then.

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Dale Jarrett -- 5th, I almost picked him. Nice to see him in the top 5 again (and in the points chase!)

* Travis Kvapil -- 7th, Rookie backs up a good qualifying run with a decent finish. Best of the Penske cars.

* Kyle Petty -- 8th, !!! First top 10 since Talladega, October 2002. Don't expect this sort of performance the rest of the season.

* Greg Biffle -- 9th, Should have taken tires with 75 laps to go. Everyone else did, hence this finish. Greg had the car to beat otherwise.

* Scott Riggs -- 10th, Solid run. This guy is making a little noise this season.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Kasey Kahne -- 14th, At least he finished this year.

* Matt Kenseth -- 16th, Made a Kenseth-like run to the lead and looked like a contender for a top five, but then he had a tire problem while running third late in the race.

* Carl Edwards -- 26th, Suffered damage very early in the race and lost a lot of laps under repair, but what a recovery. Everyone else's misfortune contributed to a half-decent day.

* Bobby Hamilton Jr. -- 39th, Blames himself for triggering the 14-car crash that took out a share of the contenders. I don't know that it was really his fault, but that's a classy move to not point fingers at others.

Next week... More short-track action at Martinsville.

2005-04-03T13:34:00.000-07:00

Week 5 -- Bristol

I'm a little belated with this week's predictions because I went out to the local dirt track last night and just about froze sitting in the bleachers watching the action. It took me all night just to thaw out. But rest assured that even though the race is in progress as I write thiss, I have no idea what the standings are (which will probably be reflected in my wildly inaccurate prediction, but here goes anyway...)

It is perhaps fitting that I spent last night watching the quarter-mile fender-bending, because it is a preview of the type of action we usually see at Bristol. I love this race, as do most gNA$hCAR fans. We'd all probably love it a lot more if Kurt Busch didn't keep winning. Keep in mind that this is a good track for first-time winners, as the tight racing often takes out even the best cars.

GLENN'S TEN:

* Jeff Gordon (winner) -- Jeff's having one of those streaky seasons: win at Daytona, engine woes at California, in the show at Vegas, wrecked on the first lap at Atlanta -- so it would figure that this should be an "on" week for him at one of his good tracks. Wouldn't be surprised to see him dominate the race, but even if not, I'd expect him to be near the front all afternoon.

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Rusty Wallace -- Most wins here of any active driver (9). If he's going to notch another win, this is a place to do it.
* Kurt Busch -- Looking for fourth spring race in a row. Streaks all end eventually.
* Ryan Newman -- Has shown he can run well here. Now can he stay out of trouble?
* Elliott Sadler -- Last guy to win a spring Bristol race before Busch started his domination.
* Kevin Harvick -- Has had short track success.
* Jimmie Johnson -- I'm a little nervous about this, but it's hard to argue with a guy who has been on such a dominant streak of top-fives,
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- His season has stunk worse than burnt rubber so far, but I've got a hunch this is where he might turn things around.
* Tony Stewart -- Might sneak in.
* Mark Martin -- Can he come to the front from 34th. Yes. With a little pit strategy.

Also watching: Matt Kenseth (Always a threat)... Jamie McMurray (Will make the show just because I didn't pick him)... Dale Jarrett (Might surprise)... Greg Biffle (I think he's due for bad luck)... Carl Edwards (Coming off Atlanta win, but starts 42nd).

2005-03-21T02:46:00.000-08:00

Backflips in Atlanta

Don't know what it is about Atlanta that produces such exciting finishes. This one was reminiscent of the spring 2001 race where Kevin Harvick got his first Cup win by edging out a hard-charging Jeff Gordon. This time the scenario was a little different, with Carl Edwards coming from behind to edge Jimmie Johnson at the checkers and take his first career victory. I will say that Edwards' backflip was at least as good as Harvick's burnout that day.

Other than that, this race sucked eggs as far as my predictions went, thanks to a first lap crash that scattered the field and took a couple of my picks in the process. It only got worse from there

GLENN'S TEN (4-for-10. Pffft!):

* Tony Stewart (winner) -- 17th, The Home Depot Chevy never got it right, despite repeated trips to pit road to make changes. The car was good on the short run, but was only saved from being lapped by timely cautions.

* Jimmie Johnson -- 2nd, Looked like he had this one in the bag, but Edwards was determined. He spent most of the race running door-to-door with Greg Biffle. His ninth top five in the last 10 races. Back in the points lead, despite being docked 25 points after last week's win for a car that didn't meet height specs.

* Jeff Gordon -- 39th, Jeff paid the price for his poor qualifying run, getting swept up in the lap 1 crash caused when Casey Mears found his way against the wall. Jeff got back out on the track 75 laps down. Second straight disastrous Atlanta finish.

* Ryan Newman -- 14th, Same story, different weekend. Ryan qualified on the pole but slipped back quickly. He got a lap down and spent many laps trying to get un-lapped. Finally managed to do that with about 40 to go. Up to 6th in points.

* Carl Edwards -- 1st, This kid's the real deal. The charge for the win over the final 10 laps or so was just classic Atlanta racing. It looked like he'd burned the tires off after running down Johnson once only to slide up near the wall coming through the turns. He cooled down the tires and made one last run that got the job done, making contact with the #48 to slow his momentum before the scoring stripe. I'll give the backflip a 6 out of 10, but for the victory I'll give him a 10. It doesn't get much sweeter.

* Greg Biffle -- 3rd, Turned in consistently awesome pit stops to pace the field most of the day, but got beaten out on the last one by Johnson. He didn't have his best stuff in the final green sequence. Still, another solid run by the Roush camp.

* Brian Vickers -- 6th, I feel somewhat vindicated by this correct pick. Vickers sank into the 20s early in the race, but the car got better as the laps progressed. The #25 always seems to do well at Atlanta no matter who is driving it.

* Kurt Busch -- 32nd, Ugh! Suffered some damage in the opening lap fracas. Got that repaired and stayed on the lead lap, and looked strong until he cut a tire that blew apart the right rear quarter panel. Had to spend some time behind the wall.

* Kevin Harvick -- 21st, Got caught a lap down and never recovered.

* Bobby Labonte -- 37th, Another casualty of the race opening crash. Not a good day for Joe Gibbs cars.

THE REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Mark Martin -- 4th, Knew I should have picked him. The car ran in the top 5 much of the day.

* Kasey Kahne -- 5th, He has a knack for Atlanta. I missed the fact he had two previous top 5's here.

* Michael Waltrip -- 7th, Awesome finish by a team that desperately needed one.

* Dave Blaney -- 8th, Blaney also has a good history at this track. Best finish by him in a while.

* Scott Riggs -- 9th, I continue to overlook the fact that he is much improved from the first half of last season.

* Elliott Sadler -- 10th, Quietly made his way into the show with good pit stops.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 24th, The crew chief swap thing hasn't helped Little E so far. He's struggled three races in a row, and this one at a track he one on a year ago. The car started deep in the field and stayed there. Only reason he finished this high was attrition.

* Jason Leffler -- 25th, FedEx isn't gonna tolerate this too long. At least the UPS-sponsored entry is stinking up the joint as well. I think they all better start racing their delivery trucks.

* Matt Kenseth -- 31st, Two years ago at this time he was the championship leader. Right now he's nearing the cut for not making the Chase.

* Ricky Rudd -- 33rd, If not for losing his brakes late in the race this might have been a car to contend with. Fatback McSwain is going to make an impact on this team at some point this season, but first they've got to overcome the mechanical issues. Rudd was as high as 4th.

Next week... No race on account of Easter. (Phew!) Bristol is coming up in two weeks.

2005-03-19T20:26:00.000-08:00

Week 4 -- Atlanta

Ryan Newman won another pole on Friday. Ho-hum. That makes 29 for his career, and five straight at Atlanta, where he has yet to win. I'd like to think his luck is about to change, but I'm not quite sure what to make of the Rocket Man so far this season. He looks hot in qualifying and shows good stuff early, but then something seems to go wrong and he can't finish strong. At least so far this year he hasn't been burned by the disastrous sub-40th finishes that killed his title chances the past couple of seasons.

Atlanta is a fast and usually fun race. I'm ready to pick my winners...

GLENN'S TEN:

* Tony Stewart -- Tony might seem an unlikely pick, given his struggles last week, but this is a track where the Gibbs cars seem to do well, and Tony's starting 9th. He was runner-up in Saturday's Busch race.

REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Jimmie Johnson -- Coming off the big win at Las Vegas. Another top-five seems highly likely.
* Jeff Gordon -- Knows this track well. Starts 25th, but he'll get the ship righted pretty quickly.
* Ryan Newman -- Winning the pole hasn't helped him win at this track in four previous, where most of those finishes were mid-pack. Look for him to crack the top 10 this time, if not as the winner.
* Carl Edwards -- Saturday's Busch race winner. That's gotta be a confidence booster.
* Greg Biffle -- The guy is running well. Starts sixth Sunday.
* Brian Vickers -- It's the #25 magic at Atlanta. I know I've said that before and Vickers proved me wrong, but this is a new season.
* Kurt Busch -- Defending champ will find a way to be up front when it matters.
* Kevin Harvick -- Qualified (if we can call it that) a disappointing 36th, so perhaps I'm being too optimistic. But given that this is the site of his first career victory four years ago, maybe that will give him extra incentive.
* Bobby Labonte -- Bobby used to own this track. The way he's been running the past year it might be unrealistic to expect a win, but he might make the top 10.

AND WHAT ABOUT... Kasey Kahne? (Doesn't seem to be catching the breaks, but we've seen some breakdowns.)... Mark Martin? (Might just surprise us all.)... Matt Kenseth? (This isn't looking like his year so far.)... Dale Earnhardt Jr.? (Last year's winner sucked eggs with a 35th-place start. He won't finish that low, but will he make the show? This race could tell us a lot about the rest of his season.)

2005-03-13T21:06:00.002-08:00

Vegas recap

I'm beginning to think that we've reached a point in this sport where the two or three dominant teams are becoming more dominant while the also-rans are rapidly becoming more also-ranish. If you could take the Roush drivers and the Hendrick drivers and put them all in their own league (and probably DEI too), what would you have left?

I only ask this because look who paved the way at LVMS most of today. If it wasn't Greg Biffle or Kurt Busch, it was Jimmie Johnson (and Ryan Newman, but we'll get to that later).

Overall this was an interesting race, with a couple of good storylines taking place with the Busch brothers battling for bragging rights, and Kevin Harvick's penalty-laced weekend.

GLENN'S TEN (6-for-10):

* Kurt Busch (winner) -- 3rd, He had one of the cars to beat, but in the end he was no match for Jimmie Johnson or his younger brother, Kyle. Getting sent to the end of the line for a pit violation late in the race didn't help matters.

* Matt Kenseth -- 8th, It's hard to believe that Kenseth was two laps down at one point. He developed a tire rub and the call was made to take four tires instead of the two he wanted. That put him deep in the hole, but he was able to make up both laps -- both of them earned by outracing the leader. He used his crackerjack pit crew to gain track position late in the race.

* Mark Martin -- 30th, Mark dropped a cylinder and was in the garage for a time for repairs. He never thought he had a car capable of winning.

* Greg Biffle -- 6th, This race looked a lot like Fontana two weeks ago when Biffle surged to the front. But he couldn't stay there. His strong car faded a bit in the closing laps. But still, nothing to be ashamed of here.

* Carl Edwards -- 14th, Rousch drivers didn't dominate here as they have in the past. Edwards had a decent race, but he got roughed up during a wreck not of his making. They got the dents banged out well enough that he got a good finish. He's in the top 10 in points currently.

* Jimmie Johnson -- 1st, The only spinning through the grass JJ did on Sunday was the doughnuts he made during his victory celebration. The Lowe's team clearly has something to prove and are showing why they are the class of the field with races like this one. Johnson hung around the top 10 all day, but while the competition started to show signs of fatigue late in the race, his car just kept getting better and better. No one was going to catch him at the end, even though Kyle Busch gave it a good effort.

* Jeff Gordon -- 4th, Jeff hurt his chances with pathetic pit times and some bad luck on the track. Every time he seemed poised to sneak up to the lead, there was a caution and a bad pit stop. Then there was the door-to-door duel with Ryan Newman that led to some bumper tag between the two. Ryan had to check up when he got bumped out of the groove and Jeff had to slow up too. They both lost three spots from which they never recovered fully. Otherwise, Gordon probably had at least a second-place car.

* Kasey Kahne -- 38th, Kasey was mediocre most of the day, and that was before he backed into the wall. The poor finish comes on the heels of 40th at Fontana. Nothing like last year's phenomenal start to his season.

* Kevin Harvick -- 5th, Trouble just seemed to find him on Sunday. He worked his way up from his 42nd-place starting spot, but then was penalized for speeding on pit road late in the race and had to restart something like 26th. The car was definitely good, but it's hard to be competitive when you lose that much track position.

* Jamie McMurray -- 15th, Yawn. Never ran very far toward the front. This is about all he was worth all day.

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Kyle Busch -- 2nd, Awesome run for this rookie. It probably didn't hurt that he wanted to beat his older brother at their home track. I didn't pick him because I'm not convinved the #5 team is ready for prime time yet. But give it time. Best finish for anyone in this car since Terry Labonte won Darlington in September 2003.

* Casey Mears -- 7th, Whoever came up with the puke purple and pink Energizer paint scheme on this car ought to be forced to sit through an hour of DEI Vegas highlight films. Best of the Gnassi teammates just seems to like to finish 7th.

* Tony Stewart -- 9th, Knew I shouldn't have counted him out. The #20 team made a lot of tweaks to the car after a mediocre qualifying and practice series. Tony charged forward early, but he could never quite get over the hump, and was racing in the teens most of the day.

* Ryan Newman -- 10th, Barely hung on for a spot in the show afte being a dominant car much of the day. The laps he led came late in the race, but his brush-up with Gordon wasn't what he needed. The handling went away after that, and he was doing the rapid fade in the waning laps. At least he's into the top 10 after three races.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Joe Nemecheck -- 19th, Hendrick power got him as high as second late in the race. What the heck was he doing back here at the finish?

* Michael Waltrip -- 21st, At least he finished for the first time this season, which is better than we can say for...

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 42nd, What a fast exit! Lap 16 found him out of position as Brian Vickers worked the line above him, and the result was that Junior clipped Vickers and wrecked the two of them along with Bobby Labonte and Ricky Rudd. Even Junior admitted the error. As I said, Atlanta next week can't come soon enough.

Next week... Junior hopes to turn his luck around at the track where he won a year ago, Atlanta.

2005-03-13T21:06:00.001-08:00

Vegas recap

2005-03-13T21:06:00.000-08:00

Vegas recap

2005-03-12T18:19:00.000-08:00

Week 3 -- Las Vegas

Following a bye week, the Cup teams return to action Sunday at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. That should be good news for Roush Racing fans, as their teams basically have owned this place the past couple of years. Matt Kenseth looks to make it three in a row on this track. Is there any reason to suspect he won't?...

GLENN'S TEN:

* Kurt Busch (winner) -- KB has been the runner-up in the first two races this season. The defending champion will finally make it to Victory Lane at his home track.

THE REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Matt Kenseth -- Can't count him out here. He had the fastest time in final practice, and starts an un-Kenseth-like 8th. But it's hard to win three in a row anywhere.
* Mark Martin -- Winner of Saturday's Busch race. Gotta believe he's riding the crest of a retirement wave.
* Greg Biffle -- (Are Roush fans sensing a trend here?) Coming off a dominant win at California. He seems to suddenly be living up to the unrealized potential of his initial Cup season.
* Carl Edwards -- Could Roush make it 5-for-5 in this race? Quite possibly. Carl starts 20th and went for a wild ride in Saturday's race, but I still believe in this kid, and he's got a great franchise behind him.
* Jimmie Johnson -- Another top 5? Maybe, if he can avoid spinning through the grass this year.
* Jeff Gordon -- This used to be a great track for Super G. He's 11th on the grid, which gives him room to improve gradually over the course of 400 miles.
* Kasey Kahne -- I feel like I'm taking my chances here, but he did chase Kenseth across the line a year ago.
* Kevin Harvick -- Trouble just seems to find this guy. He qualified 4th, but then was relegated to the end of the starting grid because his fuel tank wasn't full for his qualifying run -- a gNA$hCAR no-no. To make matters worse, it was determined the tank had been tampered with to make it appear full. I hope the hanky-panky police penalize this team big time. That aside, don't count Harvick out. He'll march into the top 10 if he doesn't get wrecked along the way by the likes of Hermie Sadler or Eric McClure.
* Jamie McMurray -- One of the Gnassi drivers has to make the cut, but it could be Sterling Marlin. I'm going with Jamie all the same.

MISSING IN ACTION: Ryan Newman (Starting on the pole is usually a curse)... Tony Stewart (What's with starting 23rd? Another mediocre day in the making?)... Dale Earnhardt Jr. (Can't wait to leave the West Coast behind)... Michael Waltrip (See comments for Jr.)

2005-02-27T23:03:00.000-08:00

California recap

My predictions were largely spot-on: The "Young Guns" looked good in this race, DEI had an awful day, and Hendrick cars dominated... er, actually hendrick had a tough day, except for Jimmie Johnson, but I'll get to that in a moment.

Overall, this race was an entertaining one, with lots of good action on the track. I don't know that we needed to hear the Governator give us his take on gNA$hCAR's economic impact on Kah-lee-for-nya during FOX's hourlong prerace event, but that's why i have a VCR with a remote that I used liberally to condense a 4-1/2 hour broadcast down to three hours. Thank you, SONY.

GLENN'S TEN (6-for-10 -- a decent day):
* Jimmie Johnson (winner) -- 2nd, Jimmie looked like he might have a mediocre day when he wasn't able to lead any laps. The car didn't look very strong. But in typical Hendrick fashion he made a late charge and nearly beat the winner to the checkers, falling short by a lap of the winning pass.

* Jeff Gordon -- 30th, *Ouch!* Jeff qualified a disappointing 28th but steadily rose through the field. He got as far forward as second, I believe, and looked good for at least a top 5 until the engine went south with about a dozen laps to go. He got black-flagged and failed to get what would have probably been a top 20.

* Kurt Busch -- 2nd, The Roush cars came through as I thought they might, placing four out of five among the top 10. Kurt got a lap down during an untimely caution in the middle of green-flag pit stops, then made up the deficit to lead before Greg Biffle got by him in the waning stages. Second straight 2nd place finish leaves him atop the points list.

* Rusty Wallace -- 10th, Didn't make a lot of noise, but he made the show. I'll take it.

* Ryan Newman -- 9th, Ryan had a Ryan-like afternoon, starting 9th, falling back a bit, starting to improve, then getting caught by bad luck -- this time in the form of tire trouble that caught him a lap down mid-race. It took him a couple of cautions to make up the lap, and he eventually wound up having a decent finish.

* Tony Stewart -- 17th, What happened to Tony? He had to move to the back after fixing a transmission problem, but he charged through the field in the early laps. I was sure he was going to be a factor, but he never ran in the top 10 and hovered between 15th and 20th all afternoon. Disappointing.

* Elliott Sadler -- 8th, This looked nothing like his September '04 victory. He struggled all race and only moved into the top 10 with a couple of two-tire pit stops in the late going.

* Joe Nemechek -- 39th, Joe looked like he would be the surprise of the day. He qualified 4th and ran up front all race until his Hendrick-built engine tanked while he was leading.

* Mark Martin -- 7th, Right about where I would have pegged him. All the Roush cars looked good, but Mark's was just average.

* Matt Kenseth -- 26th, Suffered a tire problem and went a lap down after being near the front all day.

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Greg Biffle -- 1st, I almost picked him over Sadler. Looks like I should have. Started 5th and bolted to the lead on lap 4. Fell a lap down along with Bush and Newman but recovered. Took a gamble on two tires on the final pit stop to hold track position. It almost bit him, except that Kurt Bush kept Johnson at bay long enough to preserve the win. Biffle's second win in last three points races.

* Jamie McMurray -- 4th, The only driver to finish in the top 10 who wasn't in my picks or on my "also watching" list. He didn't have a car capable of catching the winners, however.

* Carl Edwards -- 5th, Another guy I almost picked. He led a bundle of laps and ran near the front all day. This kid's gonna win one this year. Currently in the top 5 in points.

* Kevin Harvick -- 6th, The Kevin-who-knows-how-to-race Harvick showed up this week and was among the many leaders. He took four tires on the last pit stop and just couldn't get back up to the front.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Dale Jarrett -- 11th, Decent finish after Daytona disappointment.

* Ken Schrader -- 14th, A name you rarely see in the teens.

* Sterling Marlin -- 15th, Don't look now, but he's among the top 10 in points.

* Brian Vickers -- 21st, Yes, but he started second...

* Kyle Busch -- 23rd, Yes, but he started on the pole, becoming the youngest driver ever to do so.

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 32nd, Anyone count how many pit stops Little E made for blown tires, body damage and penalties? Fontana has not been kind to the Bud boys.

* Michael Waltrip -- 38th, DEI had a bad day here, as usual. Blown engine makes two in a row to start the season. Not a good omen.

* Jason Leffler -- 37th, I'll make a prediction now that Ward Burton will be driving this car before we get to Daytona in July. Jason was awful when he ran at this level four years ago, and so far he hasn't given me much reason to think he's vastly improved after stints in the Busch and truck series.

Next week... Viva la Mexico! Actually, the Cup drivers get a bye week while the Buschwackers head to Mexico City for the first modern-era intercontinental gNA$hCAR race. I'll be back in two weeks to predict the running order at Las Vegas.

2005-02-26T00:07:00.000-08:00

Week 2 -- California

I said last week that it's too early to be visiting Fontana, California. This race used to be in April, but the gNA$hCAR's racing wizards thought it would generate more excitement after Daytona than the previous Week 2 visits to Rockingham. I miss The Rock. It was two years ago this week that Dale Jarrett won his last points race there, and a year ago that Kasey Kahne got his first of five second-place finishes to begin a successful Rookie of the Year campaign. Will California in February be as exciting as Rockingham in February used to be? Like it or not, the age of the 1-1/2 to 2-mile cookie-cutter ovals is here to stay.

I have to make this week's picks before qualifying, but at least there are a few things you can count on at California: The Hendrick cars are awesome; the DEI cars stink; and "Young Guns" like Ryan Newman, Kurt Busch and their peers tend to do well. So on that note I give you...

GLENN'S TEN:

* Jimmie Johnson (winner) -- Jimmie didn't win last week, so he's already overdue. He's won here before and typically has a car capable of dominating a race of this type. I look for him to be out front early and stay there much of the race.

THE REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Jeff Gordon -- Fresh off his Daytona win and always hot at Fontana. Bad news for the rest of the league. If Johnson doesn't win, Gordon will.
* Kurt Busch -- I like Kurt's chances. It's close enough to Vegas that this is almost a hometown crowd for him. He'll come out and shine for the fans.
* Rusty Wallace -- Got career victory 54 at this track in 2001. He's sitting at 55 wins coming into this race. I still think he's got something for Fontana and will show it as he continues his farewell tour.
* Ryan Newman -- Has always run well here. Hasn't always finished well. He needs to regroup after 20th-place showing at Daytona.
* Tony Stewart -- Another guy who could shine. Might lead a lot if he starts near the front.
* Elliott Sadler -- Won here in September.
* Joe Nemechek -- Can he keep the car in one piece long enough to get to the finish?
* Mark Martin -- Daytona proved he's still got it. He'll be in the top 10 somewhere.
* Matt Kenseth -- Roush teams could quietly have a great day.

ALSO WATCHING... Greg Biffle (Rousher), Carl Edwards (Still have a feeling about his season), Kevin Harvick (Close as he gets to his hometown of Bakersfield. Might just put it all together for a day.)

2005-02-21T23:48:00.000-08:00

24/70

Well that was sure fun! Nothing like tuning in for the first race of the season and getting to see your favorite driver celebrating in Victory Lane. That was the payoff for sitting through four hours of FOX hype and having to watch Tony Stewart at the head of the pack for more than half of the afternoon. In all fairness I must say I feel sorry for Tony Stewart losing it the way he did, if only because it caused his frustration to boil over and led to him doing something stupid after the checkered flag. But more on that in a moment. First, my recap of my predictions.

GLENN'S TEN (5-for-10):

* Tony Stewart (winner) -- 7th, I thought this was Tony's year until he got snookered on the last restart. He led 109 laps and seemed to be able to drive the car where he wanted to regardless of who was around him. What he lacked was a teammate to help him when the heat got turned up near the end. Bobby Labonte's engine got toasted early in the race, and Jason Leffler was victimized by a wreck not of his making. That left the Hendrick and Roush drivers to gang up on him, which they did. Jimmie Johnson was Tony's last straw, blocking his way to a top 5 while Tony had to settle for 7th. Tony took out his frustrations after the flag by beating on Jimmie's car, which prompted harsh words from Jimmie's crew chief. Tony justified it by saying Jimmie was beating on him so he was just giving as good as he got. Maybe, but Jimmie did his beating and banging BEFORE the flag in the course of the race. Tony's beating was simple childish retaliation. This is the kind of thing that earns him a bad rap. Hopefully this is the last we'll see of it this season.

* Jimmie Johnson -- 5th, The aforementioned dust-up with Stewart aside, Johnson never had as strong a car as his victorious teammate. He didn't improve his chances with the pass-through penalty for speeding on pit road that kept him out of the draft for a chunk of the second half of the race.

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 3rd, Dale's car looked like junk most of the day, hovering around 25th. Naturally, it got better just in time for the final laps. He drafted his way to the lead and looked destined to repeat as champ. That was before a debris caution came out just as Gordon completed his pass for the lead, shades of last April at Talladega.

* Michael Waltrip -- 37th, Doh! He thought he had the car to win -- and just might have -- until the engine blew on lap 161. I think this was the main reason why Junior didn't hang on to the lead near the end -- no drafting partner.

* Kurt Busch -- 2nd, Kurt overcame a pass-through penalty to contend for the win. He sliced and diced his way past Tony Stewart and Dale Jr., but he never could catch Gordon.

* Jeff Gordon -- 1st, Jeff ran up front all day despite rarely leading. That's a bad sign if you're the competition. He didn't get a lot of drafting help while trying to make the pass for the win, but he had Johnson and Scott Riggs in position at just the right moment -- before the final caution. Jeff's third Daytona 500 win is sweet. In case you're counting, his 70th career win leaves him just six shy of the late, great Dale Earnhardt Sr.

* Carl Edwards -- 12th, I thought he'd squeaked through with a top 10, but he got shuffled back after the final caution. He got roughed up on the next to last restart when someone checked up and several cars plowed into each other. He had to pit for repairs that probably hurt his final showing.

* Greg Biffle -- 25th, Got caught up in a wreck, but he wasn't much of a factor before then. He had worked his way into the top 10 from his 23rd starting spot.

* Scott Wimmer -- 33rd, He looked strong until the big pileup that saw him make every highlight reel with his end-over-end crash.

* Jeff Burton -- 29th, Sustained crash damage, but had been a leader before that. He'll get it together this season. I think.

THE REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Scott Riggs -- 4th, Wouldn't have picked him in a million years. He deserved to be here. Never led, but the car was in the top five much of the day.

* Mark Martin -- 6th, Final Daytona 500 race of his career and he performs above (my) expectations with a battered race car, speedily repaired after Thursday's tangle with Kevin Harvick.

* Sterling Marlin, 8th -- I'm kicking myself for doubting his ability to make the cut at Daytona. He got here because of attrition; the car was mostly junk.

* Kevin Lepage -- 9th, Another beneficiary of attrition. He backed up his strong qualifying race by making the show in the green-white-checkered scramble.

* Rusty Wallace -- 10th, Not the win he wanted, but a respectable finish for a veteran in his final 500.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Elliott Sadler -- 11th, Not sure how he got here, because the car looked mediocre all day.

* Dale Jarrett -- 15th, Never conquered handling problems. Sank like a stone after starting from the pole.

* Ryan Newman -- 20th, I told you something would happen. He brushed the wall, then got some damage on the next to last restart that forced him in to the pits.

* Kasey Kahne -- 22nd, Suffered some crash damage.

* Kevin harvick -- 28th, Backup car now looks a lot like the primary car did on Thursday, except this one wasn't his fault.

* Matt Kenseth -- 42nd, Thought he had his best Daytona car ever. It wasn't.

* Bobby Labonte -- 43rd, Has the dubious distinction of starting the season in last place. He might take comfort in knowing that the last three drivers to suffer this fate -- Tony Stewart (2002), Ryan Newman (2003) and Mark Martin (2004) -- all went on to finish the season no worse than 6th. Tony of course won it all in '02. Shades of things to come???

Next week... It's too early to be in California, but that's where we're heading.

2005-02-19T22:35:00.000-08:00

Week 1 -- Daytona

This is it, fellow fans -- the kickoff of the 2005 racing season. Time once again to predict who will take the checkered flag at the Great American Race. Last year's Daytona 500 was a ho-hum affair. Not just because Dale Earnhardt Jr. won, but because it frankly was a dull race for about the first 180 laps. Why is it that the biggest events in the sports world are mostly dull affairs? Daytona, the Stupor Bore, the Worried Series... Oh yeah, they all have their moments, but you can get as much out of them by simply watching the highlights on the 11 o'clock news, or hitting the fast-forward button on your VCR remote. (That's what I did two weeks ago when New England and Philly met in the NawFuL finals and I saved two hours of viewing time.)

Don't get me wrong, I'll watch every moment of Daytona on Sunday, but I'll probably be kicking myself after the wrong guy wins it all. And who will that guy be? Well, that's why we have Glenn's Ten. You'll look back on this list tomorrow night and either tell me I was a genius or wonder what I was drinking when I compiled it. OK, I'll shut up now and get to the race...

GLENN'S TEN:

* Tony Stewart (winner) -- Tony is due for a win in this race, and why not this year? He won his qualifying race Thursday and the Busch race Saturday. He finished second to Dale Jr. last year. He knows how to draft and is just aggressive enough (are you listening Kevin Harvick?) to position himself for the victory without wrecking half the field in the process. When Tony starts hot he usually stays that way, and has the making of being "his season."

THE REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):

* Jimmie Johnson -- He's looking like Jeff Gordon did at this stage in his career. He runs well everywhere and you always have to think he'll be a contender for the victory. I worry about the shape of his engine after Thursday's wild ride through the infield.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- He won last year. The nature of this race is that he could run strong here every year and never win another one. Don't be fooled by his poor qualifying lap. All the DEI guys qualified low in the field, but look where they start on Sunday... 3rd, 5th, 10th.
* Michael Waltrip -- Michael has a pattern here. When FOX covers the race, Mikey wins. By that note he should win this year, too. But he won't. He'll still be a factor at the finish.
* Kurt Busch -- The defending series champ crossed the line third last year. Unfortunately, he was a lap behind the winners. Kurt is maturing as a driver and won't make the same stupid mistakes this year that cost him a shot at victory in 2004.
* Jeff Gordon -- He'll be somewhere in the top 10, but if it comes down to him or Jimmie, he'll sacrifice position to get his guy across the line in first.
* Carl Edwards -- Keep your eye on the #99 this year. Expect good things. The good things will start today with a top 10.
* Greg Biffle -- I'm starting to think that Biffle is the next Mr. Daytona. He has won a pole at this track and a summer race. Could this be the year he wins the big one?
* Scott Wimmer -- Say what? The #22 has a history of success here. Ward Burton won it all in 2002; Wimmer was in the top 5 last year. He'll find a way to get there.
* Jeff Burton -- The #31 also finds a way into the top 10 consistently at Daytona. Burton's career was revived when he went over to Childress late last season. Now comes the time to get serious about returning to competitive form.

I COULDN'T FIND ROOM FOR... Dale Jarrett (on the pole, but struggled in practices), Ryan Newman (new car, looks good, but something's gonna happen...), Matt Kenseth (maybe top 15), Sterling Marlin (2-time winner past his prime), Bobby Labonte (might help Stewart to victory), Kevin Harvick (liked him better before his primary car became scrap metal), Mark Martin (finished 43rd here last year, and already running into bad luck), Rusty Wallace (hasn't won yet, and will finish his career with the perfect record intact), Joe Nemechek (will the backup car perform? It might...) or Kasey Kahne (needs another year or two to be a real factor).

SENTIMENTAL FAVORITES: Kevin Lepage, Mike Skinner.

2005-02-18T23:55:00.000-08:00

Kevin Harvick's a bonehead

Sorry, but I had to say it. I watched the Gatorade Duel on Thursday and saw the big pile-up in the second race that transpired after Harvick spun Jimmie Johnson. There was no excuse for it other than that Harvick was being too aggressive where he shouldn't have been -- in the turn. Bump drafting on a turn at 190 mph is a recipe for disaster. Johnson was lucky that he didn't hit anything or anyone, but I question what that spin might have done to his engine. Guys like Mark Martin and Rusty Wallace weren't as lucky. They'll have to start in the back on Sunday, where if you believe what Martin says it's impossible to win. (I personally don't believe that -- I win all the time from a 43rd starting spot in NASCAR Thunder on my Nintendo GameCube!)

Joe Nemechek was so ticked at Harvick that he threw a water bottle at him when they left the infield care center. Of course, they were chatting like old buddies during Busch qualifying on Friday, so maybe Nemechek doesn't really plan to make good on his threat to "beat Harvick up" as he told an AP photogragher. Of course, winning the pole for the Busch race might have changed his attitude slightly.

Harvick's one of those guys who has problems making friends on the track. I counted at least six drivers Thursday who probably won't be feeling too friendly with him on Sunday.

2005-02-17T03:12:00.000-08:00

2005 season predictions

I know these are the most anticipated predictions of the year (yeah, right), so I'll get right to them.

NEXTEL Cup Top 10, in order of finish:

1) Jimmie Johnson -- The guy who should have won last year won't be the bridesmaid for a third year in a row. He's already off to a good start, winning the Bud Shootout last Saturday night.

2) Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- Here's a man on a mission. He wants to win. The media want him to win. The fans want him to win. He's shaken up his crew in the offseason. It will either be a boom year or a bust. Little E won't let it be a bust.

3) Jeff Gordon -- Mr. Consistency would have been last year's champ under the old points system, but he was good enough that he could have won under the new format as well, with a little better luck. A savvy racer, he'll find a way to be in the race for the big money when it counts.

4) Tony Stewart -- Tony had an up-and-down sort of year last season. He needs to get off the emotional roller coaster and focus on his driving. When he's on his game he is a threat to win it all. He needs to get off to a fast start in 2005 to have a realistic shot.

5) Matt Kenseth -- Don't count the 2003 champ out. Ever. Matt might not make many visits to Victory Lane, but he is often in the top 10, which is where you want to be to make the Chase.

6) Jamie McMurray -- One of the biggest disappointments of 2004 was this young man not making the cut. He poured it on the final few races to lock up the 11th spot. Maybe that was the kick start he needed to live up to his potential this year.

7) Kasey Kahne -- Last season's top rookie is still looking for that first win. He'll finally get at least one. Experience will make the difference this year.

8) Ryan Newman -- I've downgraded my expectations for the Rocket Man. Last year should have been his breakout season, but he nearly missed the Chase with inconsistent performance midseason. The checkers-or-wreckers approach doesn't work. Ryan needs to stop worrying about leading every lap and just finishing the darn thing. New model Dodges could help or hurt his chances.

9) Dale Jarrett -- DJ spent most of last season rebuilding after a disastrous 2003. He came close to making the cut for the Chase. He's on the pole for Daytona, which by itself isn't an indicator of success over 36 races, but it is a good sign for this once-proud championship team.

10) Kurt Busch -- Last year wasn't entirely a fluke. Kurt was good enough to make the Chase with consistent performance early in the season, even if he was only 7th when the Chase began. Look for him to get in again this year, but the defending champ's curse will leave him
with a mediocre finish.

OTHER CANDIDATES WHO DIDN'T MAKE MY LIST:

Carl Edwards -- You know that someone new will sneak into the top 10. Why not Mr. Edwards, who distinguished himself last season when he stepped into the #99. With Roush behind him there is a good chance he'll make the cut in his first full season. We wanna see some backflips!

Elliott Sadler -- He played his way into the Chase by driving conservatively over the final few races leading up to Richmond. Other teams will step up their game this year, and conservative won't get it
done.

Greg Biffle -- Biffle turned it up in the final weeks of last season. He comes into 2005 with high expectations. If he can string together some good finishes in the first couple of months he might be a factor.

Mark Martin -- Would be a great way to end a career by winning the Cup. Squeaked into the Chase at Richmond last season. Won't get a shot this year.

Bobby Labonte -- Has the #18 crew smoothed over its problems from last season? Labonte showed signs he was coming around late last year, but the competition is stepping up. Joe Gibbs stable still up in the air, and now adding a third team.

Kevin Harvick -- Still driving for Richard Childress, but maybe not in 2006. Rumor has him heading to Penske to replace Rusty Wallace. Such distractions aren't good for a championship run.

Joe Nemechek -- A dark horse? Joe keeps getting better and better. But I doubt he'll be consistent enough to make the cut.

Casey Mears -- He proved last season that he can drive. But he's still driving for Chip Gnassi, who been able to get his stable of Sterling Marlin, Jamie McMurray or Mears to the next level in the past three years. I think McMurray has the best shot.

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:

Kyle Busch should be a lock for this, but then I said that about Brian Vickers last year and look what happened. Travis Kvapil and Eric McClure are only other ROTY contenders. Carl Edwards and Bobby Hamilton Jr. aren't eligible because they ran more than six races last season.

2005-02-12T12:47:00.000-08:00

Let the games begin!

It is a great and glorious day. The 2005 gNA$hCAR season gets underway today with the running of the Budweiser Shootout. While this isn't a points race, it is a chance to see our favorite drivers in action for the first time in nearly three months.

I won't hazard a guess as to the finishing order of the top 10 this time, but I'll put my money on Jeff Gordon to win the shootout. Jeff is a two-time winner of this event, and the Hendrick cars are the only ones who can hold a candle to DEI at Daytona. Dale Jarrett won this race last year and starts on the pole today, but as he said, a lot of being able to win at Daytona depends on luck and how the draft shakes out. Gordon is skillful enough that when it comes down to the final few laps he'll be in position to make the pass for the lead.

I'll be back before next Sunday to make my predictions for the 2005 season. Yeah!

2004-12-12T11:44:00.000-08:00

I told you so

Brendan Gaughan got booted from the #77 this week, after a mediocre season that saw him score a lonely top 5 and only a couple top 10s. I'm not gleeful about Penske's move, but I did predict it. Will Travis Kvapil do a better job? He ran strong in the handful of races he appeared in late last season, but like Gaughan, he's coming in as a truck racer with no Cup experience. Seems unfair to stack the deck against these young drivers before they've had a chance to gain experience by running something like Busch Series first. We'll see.

2004-11-29T13:57:00.000-08:00

Preseason predictions revisited

As promised, it's time to turn back the clock over 9-1/2 months to see how my predictions fared. Then I'm bailing on gNA$hCAR for a few months (until Daytona) to concentrate on my other sports obsession -- football.

Let's count 'em down from my selections for worst to first (Numbers in parentheses indicate actual finish):

10 -- Jamie McMurray (11th)

What I said: "Second season for this kid and a great team to back him up. Experience puts him in the show at the end of the year."

What he did: Jamie missed the Chase by just a handful of points at Richmond in September. He was a hot commodity in the final 10 races, finishing more than 300 points ahead of his nearest competitor for the 11th spot. He easily could have finished 6th or 7th overall had he made the Chase.

9 -- Matt Kenseth (8th)

What I said "History suggests that defending champs often suffer a letdown the following season. Kenseth is a model of consistency, but in the New NASCAR you've gotta win. And the law of averages (bad luck) ought to catch up with him soon."

What he did: Kenseth made the Chase and then swooned, notching poor finishes in three of the final 10 races. At least he doubled last season's win total (2 victories). He'll be back in 2005.

8 -- Bobby Labonte (12th)

What I said: "He started hot last year and faded toward season's end. Lack of Joe Gibbs in the front office will affect his teams. Bobby should be a factor in the Chase."

What he did: One of the major disappointments of 2004 was the #18 team's performance in the clutch. With the firing of crew chief Michael "Fatback" McSwain, Labonte faded from a comfortable sixth place in the standings to missing the Chase on the final race of the "regular season" at Richmond. It took until the last three races for him to get the ship righted. No poles, no victories and lots of bad luck... it's hard to believe that things won't be better next year.

7 -- Kurt Busch (1st)

What I said: "Just missed the top 10 on the final race of the '03 season. He's a good driver, and he should settle down after last season's antics with Jimmy Spencer."

What he did: We'll call Kurt champion for now, because that's what gNA$hCAR is calling him under its new format. But let's face it -- Kurt would have been an also-ran at best after falling behind the leaders by over 300 points heading into the Chase. He won the title because of his consistency and good luck in the final 10 races, not the least of which included avoiding the pit wall when he lost his wheel at Homestead in the final race. Now he can slip back to mediocrity for 2005.

6 -- Dale Earnhardt Jr. (5th)

What I said: "Dale will be many folks' pick to win it all. Maybe he can. He showed great improvement last year. But I'll believe he's a championship contender when I see him finally win one. I think all the commercial endorsements have to eventually take their toll on this up-and-coming star."

What he did: Dale proved that he can contend for a championship, but he shot himself in the foot enough times to hurt his bid. He lost 25 points for intentionally bringing out a caution at Bristol, and another 25 for swearing on camera during a Victory Lane interview. Those lost points would have put him up to 4th, so they were costly in many ways. Still, Dale is maturing into a classy and formidable driver. I may have to pencil him in for a title next season.

5 -- Jeff Gordon (3rd)

What I said: "I'd like to place him higher, and knowing his past I could easily see him winning it all with the new format. But this isn't the mid-'90s anymore, and Jeff's odds of winning number five get longer as the competition steps it up. I see him being more focused on bringing up guys like Johnson and Vickers than on winning for himself. Still, look for him to win his traditional three or four races in '04."

What he did: Jeff won five races and looked mighty during the mid-season, but he faded to mediocrity (for him) in the final 10 races. He missed out on wins at tracks he's dominated in the past such as Martinsville and Darlington, and he had the abysmal finish at Atlanta that probably was his undoing for a fifth title. He missed out on a win at Phoenix that he probably didn't deserve anyway, but it was typical of his late season that saw him rope-a-dope his way to finishing third. One of two drivers not to have any major disasters, but he didn't shine when he could and should have.

4 -- Tony Stewart (6th)

What I said: "No contract worries this year, but like Labonte he will be affected by the front office shakeup. I think Tony will have an "up" season after last year's disappointment."

What he did: I don't think you would call '04 an "up season" for the #20. Yes, he finished 6th, but he did so more by default on the part of the drivers who finished behind him in the Chase. If not because of Gibbs' football distraction, there has to be some explanation for Tony's antics early in the year that had some wondering if he would still be driving the car by year's end. Scuffles with other drivers on and off the track drew unneeded attention to Tony. He seemed to go soft in the Chase, driving less aggressively, and it showed. Not a memorable year for the Gibbs stable.

3 -- Kevin Harvick (14th)

What I said: "Another guy who could easily win it all, but he needs to can some of the attitude and focus on racing. I don't think last season was a fluke."

What he did: Major disappointment number two of the year has to be Harvick's inability to do much of anything. No poles, no wins and no Chase. After the big race at Daytona it was all pretty much downhill. Can we blame it all on Kevin or on Richard Childress? Too much turmoil in the RCR shops. Expect major shakeups with Robby Gordon leaving and Jeff Burton going to the #31. Kevin will be more focused next year. He'd better be.

2 -- Jimmie Johnson (2nd)

What I said: "Would have won it all under the new format if it had been in place last year. He got burned by several late-race mishaps last year. But he's the real deal, and with Hendrick behind him this could be the year. He might even do a Ryan Newman-like tour of Victory Lane in '04, given the right circumstances."

What he did: Boy, did I nail this prediction! His eight wins were exactly what Ryan did last season, leading all drivers. Major difference was that he got most of them in the Chase, when he really had to win to make up for the huge hole he dug after a series of DNF's. To come back from 236 points down to finish 8 points behind Busch for the championship tells me who really should have been the champ this year.

1 -- Ryan Newman (7th)

What I said: "I'm going out on a limb here, I know. Ryan would have been a lock for the title last year if not for his early season bad luck/inconsistency. The eight wins aside, he showed remarkable poise for a second-year driver, and his team still has a tremendous advantage with all the engineering degrees present. With Penske's switch to Dodge a year behind them, this should be the year they can focus on the bigger picture, and will."

What he did: Ugh! Major disappointment number three. Ryan's inconsistency showed painfully in the final 10 races. He grabbed four poles in a row but finished well in only one of those races. Blown engines, crashes, etc., doomed him. Ryan doesn't play well with Rusty Wallace, which hurt him at times he needed his teammate to work with him (such as Martinsville). Maybe Ryan is a hallmark of consistency in that his performance has been inconsistent three seasons in a row now. Could be a great champ if he and Penske can get it together during the offseason.

OTHER TOP 10 DRIVERS:

* Mark Martin (4th) -- Good to see Mark return strong for his penultimate season. He almost didn't make the Chase, but once he was in it he showed the old tenacity that made him a contender for much of the past decade.

* Elliott Sadler (9th) -- Was happy just to be there, and proved it with a quick fade in the Chase. Still, this was a career year for Sadler who figures to be a factor in the future.

* Jeremy Mayfield (10th) -- One of my huge gripes about the Chase format is that a guy like Mayfield plays his way into the field with a hot streak to ace out someone more deserving like McMurray and then stinks up the joint in the final 10 races. I think we say the real Mayfield after Richmond. He had a bad race at Dover and then quit, week after week.

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:

My pick: Brian Vickers (25th) -- Brian was a huge disappointment, but I truly believe it had more to do with his team than with him. Inexperience probably was a factor with some of the poor finishes, but bad pit stops and mechanical issues shot him in the foot more than they should have. Hendrick obviously recognized that, because the orgnaization just announced a major shakeup involving the #25 and #5, the two underperformers in the house.

Winner: Kasey Kahne (13th) -- I wouldn't have picked Kahne to go anywhere, but that's why Ray Evernham is a successful owner and former crew chief and I'm not. Kasey got four of his five second-place finishes early in the year. Figure that he'll get that first win next year. He smoked the field in an otherwise anemic rookie class.

2004-11-21T18:22:00.000-08:00

We Agree On Something

Busch didn't deserve the title, and under the old system would have finished a distant third. Jeff Gordon or Jimmy Johnson would have been much more deserving (and this is coming from a Tony Stewart fan).

They'd better tweak the system for next year.

2004-11-21T16:05:00.000-08:00

Green-white-checkered championship -- and I'm 'Busched'

Can I bring out the boo-birds now that the inaugural Nextel Cup season is history? This race lived up to its billing as a thrilling conclusion to the Championship Chase, even though I think the wrong guy got to take home the trophy. Just goes to show that, much like American politics, sometimes the guy who wins the popular vote doesn't win the election. A record 13 cautions in this race helped slow the action, but keeping things close made for an exciting finish, and isn't that all we can ask for as gNA$hCAR fans? NO! I wanted to see Jeff Gordon win his fifth title, but that's just me...

GLENN'S TEN: (4-for-10)

* Kasey Kahne (winner) -- 38th, Spllllt! See what happens when I place my faith in Evernham teams? Kasey marched backward quickly, then ran over some debris dropped by his teammate's car. His day finally ended when he wrecked off Turn 4 all by his lonesome. He may be rookie of the year, but he didn't go out with the "bang" he'd hoped.

* Jimmie Johnson -- 2nd, Came up through the field and had to dodge a couple of wrecks in the process. He had perhaps the best car at the end, but the cautions hurt his championship hopes, which fell 8 points short of Kurt Busch.

* Jeff Gordon -- 3rd, Why is Jeff not now celebrating his fifth title? Simply put: bonus points. How many of the final 10 races did Gordon not lead a lap? Enough, and this one hurt the most. He had an OK car, if not good enough for the win then certainly good enough to lead at some point, but he never did. Busch got his five bonus points early and that figured heavily in the finish. I don't think Gordon would have stood in the way of Jimmie Johnson at the end if it meant the difference between one Hendrick driver taking home the title. As it was, Gordon got roughed up by Joe Nemechek on the next to last restart, which probably prevented him from a realistic shot at taking the lead.

* Ryan Newman -- 30th, What kind of a year was it for Ryan? This finish typifies the bad luck -- leading the race with a handful of laps to go when he blows a tire. If Ryan is to win a title he'll have to iron out his penchant for checkers-or-wreckers finishes.

* Bobby Labonte -- 12th, Led a few laps and visited the top 10 a couple of times, but couldn't remain there when the heat was on in the final few laps.

* Kurt Busch -- 5th, Did what he needed to do to hang onto the title. It was clear the racing gods were smiling on him when he lost his right front wheel coming to pit road and avoided hitting the pit wall by less than a foot. All the cautions allowed him to claw his way forward. If not for that, he might not have gooten the finish he had to to hold off Johnson. Dumb luck, but Roush will take it and the $5.2 million check. Thankyaverymuch.

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 23rd, No title for Little E this year, but look out next season. The Bud crew served notice that Dale will be a force to reckon with soon. A mediocre day today, with handling problems and a little front-end damage hampering his performance.

* Jamie McMurray -- 7th, Didn't make a lot of noise getting here, but that's been his style. He nails down 11th overall for the season, which is good for an extra million. Look out next season!

* Carl Edwards -- 14th, He was up and down and up again. Good finish despite missing the show. Another guy I'll have to consider carefully for next year's predictions.

* Jeremy Mayfield -- 35th, Never pick a guy who's given up. Mayfield quit after Richmond, and his car quit early in this race. He finished 60 laps down.

THE REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Greg Biffle -- 1st, There's a team in every sport you have problems picking, and in this sport Biffle's mine. Naturally, I didn't pick him this week and he won. He had the dominant car, unfortunately, because his presence prevented Johnson or Gordon from leading when they had to.

* Tony Stewart -- 4th, Wish I'd picked Tony instead of Mayfield. He had a strong car, which is the only reason he got back up front after having to serve a stop-and-go penalty for weaving too long under caution. Bizarre penalty, but kinda sums up Tony's year.

* Brendan Gaughan -- 6th, Someone must have given him pep pills for the final race. Why couldn't he do this the rest of the year? Oh yeah, it's a Penske thing. I don't see Brendan in this car by the middle of next season.

* Rusty Wallace -- 8th, Rusty got to lead a few laps. The farewell tour officially starts now.

* Ricky Rudd -- 9th, If it were anyone else I'd say look for him to contend again in 2005. But this is an aged Ricky Rudd with the Wood Brothers. Not even Fatback can overcome those handicaps.

* Kevin Harvick -- 10th, The punctuation mark on a season of underachievement by RCR drivers.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Mark Martin -- 11th, Looked like he had a strategy to win before tire problems doomed him to a mid-pack finish. An otherwise strong year that came up short of a championship. Will Mark get another shot next year, his last? I sort of hope so, but I think we've seen the last hurrah for this driver's winning ways.

* Matt Kenseth -- 19th, A snoozer of a day for last year's champion. He seems to have difficulties at Homestead.

* Dale Jarrett -- 24th, Was running third but ran out of gas before the finish. Next year...

* Elliott Sadler -- 34th, Crashed out. Not a good finish to a disappointing Chase.

Next week... Breathing a heavy sigh of relief that the season is over. I'll review my preseason predictions, but that's it for 2004. Counting the days to Daytona 2005.

2004-11-20T11:30:00.000-08:00

Week 36 -- Homestead

We've reached the final week of the season, and boy am I glad. Frankly, keeping up these logs every week for the past nine months has been a lot of fun, but it gets to be a time drain, and I'm ready to move on to other projects. But not before we share the final race in the championship Chase.

This is going to be interesting. With Kurt Busch winning the pole and Jimmie Johnson having to take a provisional, the stage is set for a dramatic run to the checkers. There are also some guys desperate for first wins, or to make their case for rides in 2005. Plus we have some unfamiliar faces in the mix with Shane Hmiel, Martin Truex Jr., and Boris Said. This will be fun...

Glenn's (final) Ten:

* Kasey Kahne (winner) -- Book 'em, Dano. I've been waiting to make this prediction all year. Kasey has run well enough to be the runner-up five times this season, and he has been cheated out of victories at least two others. But this is the same track where he won his lone Busch race last season, and he won the truck race there Friday evening. He is also driving the #9 that Bill Elliott dominated in last year before blowing a tire on the final lap. Those notes should help get him to Victory Lane on Sunday. These guys want to end the season with a win, so motivation always helps.

The rest of the top 10 (in no particular order):

* Jimmie Johnson -- Jimmie parked the car after his abysmal qualifying run Friday. This makes me think he probably had it set for race conditions and was (basically) happy with how it handled. He'll have a big hole to dig out of, but look for him to be close to the front at the finish line along with...
* Jeff Gordon -- Jeff also setup his car in race trim and qualified fifth. Bad news for Kurt Busch. Jeff has been quietly rope-a-doping his way to the championship. He's just 21 points back. Don't count him out for finally getting a win here.
* Ryan Newman -- Got taken out in an early crash here last year. He's had enough DNFs for 2004.
* Bobby Labonte -- Last year's surprise winner led only the last lap. After back-to-back top 10s in the past two weeks, I like him for a good run here.
* Kurt Busch -- I have this vision of the championship celebration, and it doesn't involve Kurt. Rousch drivers had a miserable time here last year -- Busch got taken out in the crash that claimed Newman, Matt Kenseth toasted an engine and finished dead last. Greg Biffle (35th), Mark Martin (33rd). Only Jeff Burton (14th) had a decent finish. This doesn't bode well for another Roush Cup win. Still, I think Kurt will pull out the stops and finish in the top 10, but he'll juuuuuust miss the title.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- Don't know why he didn't do better here last year. I think he'll go out with a respectable finish if not the title.
* Jamie McMurray -- Stepping up his game in preparation for 2005.
* Carl Edwards -- He's a Rousher, but he's proving himself worthy. Ought to be interesting to watch next season.
* Jeremy Mayfield -- If Kasey can win, Jeremy can sneak into the top 10 to save face in his forgettable championship bid.

Championship prediction: Johnson (1st), Gordon (2nd), Busch (3rd), Dale Jr. (4th), Mark Martin (5th after toasting an engine).

2004-11-15T13:55:00.000-08:00

Thirty-five down, one to go

Now we have a better sense of what has to happen next week for Jeff Gordon to clinch his fifth championship, and I'll give you a hint: It isn't what he did this week. Gordon has every right to be disgusted with his third-place finish on Sunday, because he should have been a shoo-in for Victory Lane. Unfortunately, the crew dropped the car on an air hose during the last pit stop, dropping Super-G from the lead to seventh place on the restart. He made up most of it, but that gaffe unquestionably spoiled an otherwise great day.

This race pretty much decided who we'll be watching next weekend at Homestead-Miami, so let's get to the results...

GLENN'S TEN (6-of-10, with all of the top six!)

* Jeff Gordon (winner) -- 3rd, Jeff could have emerged with the points lead had he nailed the win. Instead, he dropped a spot to third, even as he closed to within 21 points of Kurt Busch. The car looked terrible in the early going, but the crew got it running right by mid-race, such that he led the most laps (5 extra points). He just didn't have enough time to seal the deal after the pit road problems.

* Jimmie Johnson -- 1st, That's eight wins now for the Lowe's car, and more important four in the last five races. It is that momentum that has not only pulled him back into contention for the win, but makes him a huge favorite for the championship going into next week's race. He now trails Busch by a mere 18 points.

* Ryan Newman -- 34th, Ryan's going to look back on this season and point to his eight DNFs as the reason why he couldn't win it all. He had one of the fastest cars Sunday and might have contended for the win, but his engine went up seven laps from the finish line. That was just the capper on a frustrating day that saw him blow a tire early and go a lap down. He must have taken 100 tires over the course of the race. The short pit strategy got him close to the front, but then the engine failed. Sigh.

* Kasey Kahne -- 5th, Overcame a back-of-the-pack start after damaging his car in practice. Relax, Kahne fans, next week's your week...

* Jamie McMurray -- 4th, Winning the Busch race obviously helped. He was a strong contender all race.

* Kurt Busch -- 6th, The luckiest of all lucky dogs in this race had to be the #97. His car was decent if not dominant, but when he roughed up his fender and fell back into the mid-20s, it looked like this might be his undoing in the Chase. But he bounced back, and a few other guys ahead of him dropped out in the late going, he wound up with a decent spot. (Drat!)

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 11th, Dale recovered well, too, although not enough to preserve his spot in the Chase. He slips to 4th, 72 points back. Not impossible to win it all next week, but it would take a great finish and some bad luck by the others ahead of him.

* Dale Jarrett -- 37th, Can you hit the wall much harder than he did? Don't know if he had a tire blow or got turned around or what, but he went straight in to the Turn 2 wall on lap 195 and that was it. Car was mediocre before then.

* Mark Martin -- 2nd, Happy as a clam to be fifth in the Chase and 82 points out. Dim hopes for winning it all, but it could still happen.

* Tony Stewart -- 17th, Had to made an unscheduled pit stop late in the race that cost him any chance at the championship. Just a disappointing year for Tony.

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Carl Edwards -- 7th, One day I'm going to start picking this guy. Could he be the next Ryan Newman/Jimmie Johnson? Never led, but came darn close.

* Joe Nemechek -- 8th, Not making a lot of noise, but having a career year.

* Bobby Labonte -- 9th, Hey, that makes a couple weeks in a row for a top 10 finish...

* Mike Bliss -- 10th, Who? He took over Ward Burton's ride and makes an impressive debut. He's been a regular for Joe Gibbs in Busch series, but looking for a job next season. Didn't hurt his prospects Sunday.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Michael Waltrip -- 33rd, Haven't talked much about him this year, but he got the highlight of the day award for plowing Todd Bodine down the backstretch after the two of them got together. It's been a frustrating year for the Napa crew.

* Other Chasers -- Jeremy Mayfield, Matt Kenseth and Elliott Sadler all had mediocre days, finishing 19th, 20th and 23rd respectively. One of the drawbacks to the Chase format is that, now, we no longer care.

Next week... Busch, Gordon or Johnson? We decide it all with 400 miles at Homestead-Miami.

2004-11-14T01:07:00.000-08:00

Week 35 -- Darlington

The end is nigh. No, we still have one more week left in the season, but this is the last time the Southern 500 will be run in the fall at Darlington Raceway. Come this time next year, the gNA$hCAR boys will be zipping around the faster (and comparatively boring) confines of Texas Motor Speedway as they close in on the Chase finale.

And speaking of the Chase, the end is also night for some of the competitors who haven't already been eliminated. Today really should separate the men from the boys, as it were. Here are my predictions for Sunday's outcome:

Glenn's Ten:

* Jeff Gordon (winner) -- I feel like a broken record these days, picking Jeff or his protege Jimmie Johnson to win week after week. But it's tough to argue with success, and Jeff has had plenty on this track and in this race specifically. He has won five times in the fall, which ties the record. How sweet it would be to send off this fall classic by winning the last one. Jeff also has desperation on his side -- he needs to make up ground on Kurt Busch in a hurry if he hopes to capture that fifth title a week from now. I think Gordon's "drive for five" will keep him alive for a big finish.

The rest of the top 10 (in no particular order):

* Jimmie Johnson -- Won the spring race. Could repeat.
* Ryan Newman -- Robbed of a chance to win five straight poles when rain canceled qualifying on Friday. Thinks this is a great track for him. Was the car to beat last fall until he hit the kill switch on his ignition box and lost beaucoup laps on pit road trying to get refired.
* Kasey Kahne -- Won the Saturday truck race and was 11th in the Busch race. Seat time usually helps.
* Jamie McMurray -- Won the Busch race Saturday. Gnassi usually supplies good equipment.
* Kurt Busch -- This one could be trouble, but he'll do what he needs to do to keep the pressure on the other contenders.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- His driver, Martin Truex Jr., captured the Busch crown Saturday. Dale wants to do the same in Cup next week.
* Dale Jarrett -- There was a point this season when I thought he was close to a win. This probably won't be it, but perhaps he can capitalize on a good starting spot (12th).
* Mark Martin -- Do or die time for the Viagra Ford. The extra incentive will help him get a good finish.
* Tony Stewart -- Clinging to hope, but barely.

Missing in action: Elliott Sadler (Little hope left, but we'll see)... Matt Kenseth (The wheels are coming off the wagon)... Jeremy Mayfield (The wheels came off a long time ago. Now the horses are running off as well.)

Sleeper picks: Casey Mears (fastest in final practice and desperate for that first win)... Carl Edwards (I always discount him, but he was quick in practice and has been running well of late.)

2004-11-08T18:29:00.000-08:00

Phoenix recap

Knock on wood, but we haven't had a rainout this season. You would figure that being down in the desert there wouldn't be much chance of showers, but the drivers had to dodge the raindrops all afternoon. That led to some interesting strategies, which ultimately affected the finishing order. I'll do my quickie recap:

GLENN'S TEN (6-for-10):

* Jimmie Johnson (winner) -- 6th, Had a good car, but got caught up in traffic because of the shuffle on pit stops after Terry Labonte's crash.

* Jeff Gordon -- 3rd, Didn't have that good a car, but played the 2-tire game during pit stops about 50 laps from halfway, hoping to gain track position before a rain-shortened race, which didn't come to pass. He wound up leading many laps, but the older tires and a tight car hurt his chance to win on the final restart with 10 to go.

* Ryan Newman -- 2nd, A familiar headline: "Bad luck bites Newman." He cut a tire and went a couple of laps down early, but he eventually recovered and simply ran out of time to catch Dale Earnhardt Jr. Did have enough to get by Gordon for the second spot at the checkers. Drat!

* Tony Stewart -- 8th, Didn't hear much from Tony, but he benefitted from the last couple of cautions and the guys in front of him who came in for pit stops.

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 1st, Repeat performance as the Phoenix winner looked unlikely for a time. He wanted to take tires on the next to last caution, but Tony Eury Sr. talked him out of it. Guess that's why he's the crew chief. The win moves him to within 47 points of the lead.

* Jeff Burton -- 11th, Just missed the show. He was in the top 10 for a bit.

* Mark Martin -- 15th, Said before the race that he had only about a 15th place car, and that's exactly what it was.

* Matt Kenseth -- 36th, Two words: Engine failure. Bye-bye any fleeting title hopes he might have had.

* Jamie McMurray -- 24th, Hello walls. At least it happened near the finish, so he didn't lose any laps. He was the last car on the lead lap, however.

* Rusty Wallace -- 7th, Was too good a finish for the Miller Lite Dodge, but I'll take it.

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Kevin Harvick -- 4th, Looked sort of like the old Harvick, running well and getting into an altercation with Kasey Kahne on pit road after the checkers.

* Kasey Kahne -- 5th, Lost the battle with Harvick for the 4th spot. Shared his feelings on pit road by bumping into Harvick's left front fender. Easy there, buddy. Don't want any payback with Homestead coming up in a couple of weeks, which might be your best chance all season for victory...

* Bobby Labonte -- 9th, remember when Bobby routinely finished in the top 10? Tried fresh tires on the next to last caution and it helped him get a decent finish.

* Kurt Busch -- 10th, I had my hopes when he got caught a lap down following Terry Labonte's crash that he would stay down. But alas, he got back on the lead lap and made the show. Keeps him out front in the points chase by 41 over Jeff Gordon.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Jeremy Mayfield -- 21st, Another snoozer of an average day.

* Casey Mears -- 34th, Will this kid ever catch a break? Had a 2nd or 3rd easy before be lost a tire and pounded the wall for the final caution. Until that he had been holding off Little E for the spot. Never a good position to be in.

* Elliott Sadler -- 38th, There was so much promise when the Chase began.

Next week... With 48 points separating the top four spots, who will cash in from a dance with the Gray Lady at Darlington?

2004-11-06T13:08:00.000-08:00

Week 34 -- Phoenix

We've got ourselves a Chase again. A week after more than half of the championship contenders had trouble at Atlanta, we head to the desert for the Checker Auto Parts 500 with Kurt Busch clinging to a narrowed lead. Ryan Newman won his fourth straight pole on Friday (what else is new?) and Jimmie Johnson is going for his fourth straight win. So is the race of fours? Let's see...

Glenn's Ten:

* Jimmie Johnson (winner) -- Why not? The kid's on a hot streak at just the right time, and he stands to become the first driver to win four back to back since Jeff Gordon did it in 1998. Jimmie has finished well here in the past. And with the Hendrick organization still mourning the loss of 10 comrades two weeks ago, this would go a long way to help lighten their spirits.

The rest of the top 10 (in no particular order):

* Jeff Gordon -- Struggled a bit in practice (again), but starts in the top 10. Looking for his first win on this circuit.
* Ryan Newman -- As Ryan said himself, when you have the pole you have no excuses. He smoked the track record and the rest of the field in qualifying.
* Tony Stewart -- Can sniff the points leaders again after turn of fortunes in Atlanta.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- Won here last year.
* Jeff Burton -- One of only a couple drivers to win here twice.
* Mark Martin -- No stranger to the top 10 at Phoenix.
* Matt Kenseth -- Only starting 16th this time. Might be too close to the front for him.
* Jamie McMurray -- I keep leaving him off my list and he keeps hitting the top 10. This will probably jinx him.
* Rusty Wallace -- Might make a quiet run to make the show.

Dark horses: Kasey Kahne and Carl Edwards.

Chasers I left off the list: Elliott Sadler (Going backward in the standings)... Kurt Busch (This is supposed to be a good track for him, so he could rise to the occasion after finishing 42nd last Sunday. But I wonder...) and Jeremy Mayfield (Has reverted to his mediocre ways).

2004-11-01T19:40:00.000-08:00

Third time's a charm

There were plenty of tears to go around Sunday when NBC and the gNA$hCAR community paid tribute to the victims of last week's Hendrick plane crash in Martinsville. But it would be difficult to shed any tears for Jimmie Johnson after his stirring victory that not only honored his fallen comrades but also pulled him back into the hunt for a championship.

It was a day when six of the ten Chase contenders suffered setbacks of varying degrees (more on that in a moment) and a qualifying field of 58 drivers left a couple of Cup regulars sitting on the sidelines.

GLENN'S TEN (4-for-10... eh):

* Jeff Gordon (winner) -- 34th, Arrrgh! As horrible a day as it was for the DuPont boys, Jeff still manages to gain ground on the points lead. But oh what might have been! With Kurt Busch making an early exit, Jeff could have gained big-time ground on the other Chasers. He could have finished the day with the points lead. But alas, the car suffered a broken shock absorber and spent 25 laps behind the wall. If Jeff somehow does win the title he will be scratching his head wondering how he did it with so much mediocre luck in the final 10 races.

* Jimmie Johnson -- 1st, I knew one of the Hendrick cars would finish the day in Victory Lane, I was just wrong as to which one. Jimmie's third consecutive win was a stirring moment that will long be remembered in the sport. He, crew chief Chad Knaus, and the rest of the Hendrick drivers had difficulty composing themselves when it was all over. But as Jimmie said in Victory Lane, winning is the best medicine for their pain.

* Ryan Newman -- 17th, One of the first Chasers to have problems Sunday, he dropped suddenly to the pits under green to change tires because of a vibration. Problem fixed, but it left him a lap down and he never got it back.

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 33rd, Little E looked like he would emerge from the day as the big winner. His car was running in the top 5 much of the day and he was poised to regain the points lead with Gordon's and Busch's woes. That was until with 15 laps to go when he tangled with Carl Edwards. The #8 spun down the backstretch and rammed the inside wall. Game over for the Bud boys, but he comes away with a net gain in points.

* Joe Nemechek -- 4th, Another solid day for the U.S. Army car.

* Kasey Kahne -- 5th, Starting 32nd didn't affect him much. Just tuning up for Homestead in three weeks.

* Bobby Labonte -- 20th, Guess I overestimated Bobby's chances. Can I just blame it on the Fastback McSwain factor? I'll be kind and just overlook it.

* Dale Jarrett -- 15th, Frankenstein looked good on the hood. The care looked average on the track.

* Matt Kenseth -- 41st, One of two Roushers with engine failures. Matt is still barely alive in the Chase.

* Tony Stewart -- 9th, A quiet day for Tony, who makes a big jump in the points.

REST OF THE TOP TEN:

* Mark Martin -- 2nd, Had the strongest car, but late tire strategies on the final two cautions wound up costing him the victory. Somehow I don't think he's too upset about it. The solid finish puts him within 80 points of the lead.

* Carl Edwards -- 3rd, Best career finish and he took out Dale Earnhardt Jr. to boot. Not a bad day overall.

* Jeff Burton -- 6th, I was surprised to see him here after he had to head to the back of the field for an engine change. This is definitely a team to watch in 2005.

* Brian Vickers -- 7th, Best finish in ages for rookie of the year candidate whose season has been less than stellar.

* Jamie McMurray -- 8th, And once again I overlooked him.

* Greg Biffle -- 10th, Mark Martin was upset with his teammate late in the race when Biffle got in his way on the restart and cost him the lead.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Robby Gordon -- 16th, Won't be returning in the #31 next year. Who is Richard Childress going to replace him with? Hopefully someone who is less of a road hazard.

* Jeremy Mayfield -- 26th, Remember when he poured it on in September to make the Chase? Seems like so long ago.

* Kevin Harvick -- 35th, Nice day until he blew his engine.

* Elliott Sadler -- 36th, One of the cursed Chasers. He ran into Joe Nemechek coming onto pit road, broke the steering linkage, then wound up facing wrong-way-in to his pit stall while the crew worked to repair the problems. He finished mucho laps down.

* Kurt Busch -- 42nd, Up in smoke on lap 51. Guess he didn't want younger brother Kyle to feel lonely on the sidelines after a failed timing chain took that car out seven laps earlier. The #97 looked in jeopardy of losing the points lead to Jeff Gordon or Dale Earnhardt Jr., but with so much bad luck to go around, Kurt winds up clining to a 59-point lead over Jimmie Johnson, who is back in the hunt.

Next week... Jimmie goes for four in a row in the heat of the desert... Phoenix.

2004-10-30T21:36:00.000-07:00

Week 33 -- Atlanta

There aren't many things you can count on in the world today. Not the presidential election, not the availability of the next hot toy this Christmas, and certainly not the winner of the Nextel Cup. But you can make book on the Hendrick teammates rising to the challenge this weekend at Hot-lanta, which will be the first Cup race since last Sunday's tragedy-marred Martinsville race. What sweeter tribute to the memories of your loved ones than a trip to Victory Lane? And I know just the guy who's gonna get there...

Glenn's Ten:

* Jeff Gordon (winner) -- OK, I had him pegged to win last week and his car didn't perform. But Jimmie Johnson's did. All the more reason to believe that Jeff will have a good day Sunday. Time's running out to close the deal on his fifth title, and he needs to pull off a big finish on a track where he can win. Darlington might be the last hope after Atlanta. It's now or never. He also needs Kurt Busch to cooperate, and with the points leader starting in the middle of the field he has a chance.

The rest of the top 10 (in no particular order):

* Jimmie Johnson -- Will keep the momentum rolling for the Hendrick family.
* Ryan Newman -- Three straight poles. So now we know Ryan is consistently fast in qualifying, but when does it start translating to consistent victories?
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- Picking him did the trick last week to curse his race. Maybe I can do it two weeks running. You think? Seriously, he ran a top-5 here in the spring.
* Joe Nemechek -- A former Hendrick driver now driving with Hendrick engines. Joe runs well here.
* Kasey Kahne -- Starting 32nd, but he had a strong Busch race Saturday and, with a decent car, should get around here well.
* Bobby Labonte -- Six of his career victories have come at this track, most of those in the fall race.
* Dale Jarrett -- Why not?
* Matt Kenseth -- Even for Matt this is a little far back in the pack. 39th? He won the Saturday race so don't count him out.
* Tony Stewart -- Tony's letting us all down lately. Can the Gibbs cars break through Sunday?

Missing from the list... Mark Martin (Qualified well and second fastest in final practice. He's doomed.)... Elliott Sadler (Might surprise me, but I'll say top 15)... Kurt Busch (Has been too charmed. This is the race that will bite him.)... Jeremy Mayfield (Almost forgotten he's part of the Chase.)

2004-10-25T13:36:00.000-07:00

Tragedy and Martinsville

Sunday's race at Martinsville will be remembered less for the fact that Jimmie Johnson went to victory lane for the sixth time this season than for the plane crash that claimed the lives of his car owner's son and nine others.

Ricky Hendrick, who was the guy who was supposed to one day carry on the Hendrick Motorsports legacy, was killed in the crash while on the way to the speedway Sunday morning. Many in the sport are likening this to Dale Earnhardt's death at Daytona 3-1/2 years ago. While it is tough to draw such comparisons when one was a race-related crash and the other wasn't, the impact of any death in the racing community is felt profoundly by all, including the fans. Also killed was the organization's top engine guy. What effect these deaths will have on the future success of such teams as Johnson's, Jeff Gordon's, Terry Labonte's and Brian Vickers' will only be seen over time.

The tragedy overshadowed the race, which brought about some noteworthy developments in the Chase for the championship. Johnson didn't have a proper opportunity to celebrate in Victory Lane, as he was informed about the accident beforehand. There were no post-race interviews on NBC. We'll just have to do the best we can.

GLENN'S TEN: (3-for-10... shows what happens when you count out the Chase contenders.)

* Jeff Gordon (winner) -- 9th, The frustration mounts for Gordon fans. He keeps getting decent finishes, but he continues to lose ground on Kurt Busch, who also had a good day. What is more frustrating is that Jeff is struggling on the very tracks he should be dominating, such as Kansas and Lowe's, and now Martinsville. I suppose struggling is a relative term; he did get a second last week, but only after running in the tank most of the race. Same at Martinsville, where he slid back from a 15th-place start and was a lap behind at one point. The only reason he led at all was because he stayed out at a point where everyone else came in. The car never looked good. Just a miracle he got a top 10. Moves up to second in the Chase, however.

* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 33rd, Aaah! The Glenn's Ten curse works! This was an absolutely miserable race for Junior. The car handled poorly, he got roughed up on the track more than once, he knocked into Dale Jarrett when his brakes locked up, he left part of his transmission on the speedway, then finally he took it to the garage after a crash. He never led a lap, and more notably he slipped to third in the standings, 125 points behind Kurt Busch. Guess the 25-point penalty don't mean s*** right now, to use Dale's own words.

* Ricky Rudd -- 14th, Guess Ricky's car was running loose, because he spun a couple of times Sunday. Managed not to damage it, however, and got a decent finish.

* Bobby Labonte -- 18th, Another mediocre day for the Interstate Batteries Chevy.

* Dale Jarrett -- 37th, Maybe the 32nd starting spot was too far back. He got into a couple of altercations on track, including the contact with Junior. Spend ahile behind the wall, but he did finish the race.

* Ryan Newman -- 3rd, I'd love to have been a fly on the wall after the race to hear the "discussion" between Ryan and teammate Rusty Wallace. Ryan clearly had a good car late in the race, if not good enough to win, but was it better than Rusty's? Guess we'll never know, because Ryan muscled Rusty out of the way on the last restart. Rusty went from a sure second place to 10th, and the two "teammates" started playing destruction derby after the checkers. And for what? Ryan is still ninth in the Chase, 266 points out.

* Rusty Wallace -- 10th, Here's the guy who has every right to be ticked off after getting roughed up by the #12 in the final five laps. Do you think Rusty and Ryan get along behind the scenes? I have a hunch they probably don't.

* Jeff Burton -- 11th, Just missed the show. I hope the off-season is good to the AOL team, because Jeff could be a threat again in 2005.

* Mark Martin -- 12th, Yaaaawwwwn. Mark's getting decent finishes, but he's losing ground to Busch. This one not as painful as last week's ground-loser at Lowe's.

* Tony Stewart -- 15th, Another snoozer. Tony barely touched the top 10 after the early part of the race. 246 points out will need Busch to screw up if he's to have a shot at the championship.

REST OF THE TOP 10:

* Jimmie Johnson -- 1st, First short track win for the #48. He jumps four spots in the standings, but still hopelessly out of contention. The Hendrick plane tragedy overshadows a fine day for this team.

* Jamie McMurray -- 2nd, I keep counting him out now that he's not in the Chase. Shouldn't keep doing that. If Newman hadn't been in the way those last few laps, I wonder if Jamie would have caught Johnson.

* Sterling Marlin -- 4th, Played the pit strategy game all day and it got him his best finish in months. Old tires not a good way to go at Martinsville, however.

* Kurt Busch -- 5th, Waiting for the bad luck to bite. When you are at the top of the heap your confidence level goes up. Can he keep the momentum for the final four races?

* Jeremy Mayfield -- 6th, Another guy I counted out here. He had a solid if not spectacular day.

* Jeff Green -- 7th, I almost forgot how to spell his name.

* Kevin Harvick -- 8th, Led a bunch of laps... for a change.

OTHER NOTABLES:

* Matt Kenseth -- 16th, This was a good finish, considering he was deep in the field most of the day.

Next week... Atlanta, and maybe the last hope the Chasers have that Busch will screw up.