gNA$hCAR Notes
The Rock
Not much I can add to Senior Bro's comments. The finish was thrilling, but doesn't measure up to the Kurt Busch, Ricky Craven slugfest last year.
Tony Stewart had a rough day. He was burned by short-pitting twice, which put him several laps down. Even so, it didn't look like he had a top ten car.
I'll root against little E every race. Not because of the driver, but because I don't like his fan base. There's just something wrong about jumping on a bandwagon just because his father was great. I know that isn't the case with all his fans, but it's enough of them.
Looks like Kasey Kahne is for real. It'll be an interesting rookie battle this year.
Rockingham thoughts
What a great race. It came right down to the wire with three drivers in position for the win. Naturally, Matt Kenseth's experience and superb pit stops paid off in the end, but that was a great run by Kasey Kahne.
You have to feel for Carl Long, who did a spectacular barrel roll midway through the race after getting help from Joe Nemechek. The guy has been trying for the past five years to make it in Cup and this is about the most air time he's received -- for a wreck that wasn't his fault for a change. Maybe it will pay off for him if it draws some hits on his web site.
A 7-out-of-10 day for Glenn's Ten. Here's how my predictions fared:
* Jamie McMurray (Winner) -- 3rd, Jamie had the car to get it done, but he got caught in traffic on the final restart and ran out of time. Brushing the wall with two to go didn't help.
* Kurt Busch -- 8th, Didn't get talked about much during the race, but very quietly hung around the front all afternoon.
*Tony Stewart -- 26th, *sigh* A rotten day that got worse as the race wore on. He never looked good and perhaps this high a finish is a testament to the fact that he hung in there despite the problems.
* Sterling Marlin -- 4th, Experience pays. Didn't hear the FOX crew mention him much either, but then he was never a threat for the lead.
* Ryan Newman -- 6th, Couldn't back up the pole, but in typical Newman fashion he found a way to get a good finish. Up to 12th in the points after 31st a week ago. Watch out, Little E!
* Jimmie Johnson -- 41st, Caught up in a wreck with Ken Schrader that wasn't entirely his fault, but he wasn't much of a threat to finish in the top 10 today.
* Jeff Gordon -- 10th, Burned by bad luck on pit stops today. The final stop occurred under the green just before Robby Gordon's crash and left him mired 2 laps down. He looked good early in runs, but fell off and wasn't much of a threat for the win. He was the first car that wasn't on the lead lap.
* Rusty Wallace -- 7th, Got to work on those pit times, buddy. 17.5 seconds doesn't get it done.
* Matt Kenseth -- 1st, Figures. Great pit stops, great luck and, oh yeah, great driver.
* Dale Jarrett -- 40th, What a disappointing day for Dale. I'm really bummed about this because he should have been a top 5 car. Blown engines really screwed his season last year and this isn't an auspicious start for 2004.
REST OF THE TOP 10:
* Kasey Kahne -- 2nd, Superb run by this rookie, even if he did get the car Bill Elliott won with here in November. A bit more experience and he might have snagged the victory.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 5th, Dale wants to be a champion. Today he drove like one. First time in his career he has led the points two weeks straight.
* Ward Burton -- 9th, Nobody notices the NetZero Chevy. I almost picked Ward for my top 10, but Jimmie Johnson won out.
OTHER NOTABLES:
* Jeremy Mayfield -- 11th, Bounced back from early problem for a strong finish.
* Mark Martin -- 12th, Crumpled nose and all...
* Johnny Sauter -- 14th, This guy is a menace. Surprised the car finished in one piece.
* Scott Wimmer -- 15th, Another solid run by the rookie.
* Michael Waltrip -- 33rd, Had a top 10-type run going before mechanical problems late in the race.
No race next week thanks to Leap Day. We'll see if Kenseth gets on a roll going into Las Vegas, where he is the defending race winner.
Week 2 — Rockingham
Ryan Newman is up to his old tricks, winning the pole for tomorrow's race. That's 19 poles in 82 career starts. Almost 1 in 4. Now if only he could translate that to victories again this year. Needs to bounce back from the 34th-place showing last Sunday.
How about all those field-fillers this week? Kirk Shelmerdine, Carl Long, Andy Hillenburg and Joe Ruttman (now there's a name we haven't seen for a few years. The guy's 60!). Guess we can't count Kyle Petty among this list. Get used to seeing such backmarkers this season — there are only 37 full-time teams running Cup this year, or so I have read.
OK, time for my predictions for this week's race:
Winner: Jamie McMurray — Why not? He's won the last four Busch races here. Yeah, I know... this ain't Busch. But the kid's improving. If he can avoid tangling with the likes of Kirk Shelmerdine or Carl Long he should have a shot.
The rest of the top 10 (in no particular order):
Kurt Busch
Tony Stewart
Sterling Marlin
Ryan Newman
Jimmie Johnson
Jeff Gordon
Rusty Wallace
Matt Kenseth
Dale Jarrett
I probably won't watch the race till tomorrow night. Thank goodness for VCRs.
Let's rag on Little E!
I think we should rename this the "Bash Earnhardt Blog." Although I am not one of those crying foul over Dale's multiple victories at Daytona this past weekend, I do question the media pundits who are already penciling him in for the Nextel Cup title. Trust the Bros. on this one -- Dale may win the next 10 Daytona and Talladega races, but there are 21 other tracks on the circuit and he has only won on four of those: Texas and Richmond in 2000, Dover in 2001 and Phoenix in 2003.
Arguably, Driver 8 has been in the running on several of those other tracks even when he didn't find his way to victory lane. But no one remembers the races you almost won. All that gets remembered are the wins (6 out of 10 on restrictor tracks) and whether or not you sat at the head table at the New York banquet.
I'm not totally down on Earnhardt. You will note that I did peg him for sixth overall this year, and I suspect that he will eventually win that first title. There is something to be said for the power of positive thinking, and with the fan base so heavily behind him that has to be a psychological boost no matter how good you are. I just don't think this is the year.
I'll put Dale down now for four wins this year -- Daytona (already done), Talladega (once), Homestead-Miami and perhaps New Hampshire or Pocono. Don't ask me why I choose these (and I likely will alter my predictions come race weekend), but I see them as being Dale-like tracks. I think the Michigans, Atlantas and Indys of the circuit are always going to challenge the DEI guys, just as I believe the road courses are an aquired skill that Dale doesn't possess -- yet.
Is This Thing Rigged Or What???
Earnhardt wins at Daytona. That's a big shock. He blew by Tony Stewart by himself, even though Tony had drafting help from Kurt Busch. Is there something wrong with this picture? I almost wonder if the powers that be are doing all that they can to fix a race. Maybe the Nascar inspectors are overlooking something about the DEI cars which gives them an unfair advantage. Maybe there's a little less restrictor in their restrictor plate. All I can say is for the big tracks like Daytona and Talledega it's a lot more about the car than the driver. Sure, you need to know how to draft and work your way to the front, but only certain cars are capable of staying up front.
We'll see how Earnhardt does this year once we get to the truly competitive tracks. After all, despite his famous name, he's never won a championship.
Daytona reflections
So, Junior's a 500 winner at last. Hooray. *Yawn* Another DEI restrictor track victory. *Zzzzz* I suppose you have to be happy for him, but I would have rather seen Tony Stewart in Victory Lane. Heck, I would have rather seen Kyle Petty there... or Ken Schrader... or Dave Blaney... or (your name here).
Is it just me, or was this a fairly unexciting race? Fifteen cars left on the lead lap. I miss the days when they all ran in one big gob from green to checker and you could count on about a dozen cars with a chance to win. Once Junior got around Stewart with 19 to go there was little suspense, and if not for Scott Wimmer and Kurt Busch added to the mix I don't think Stewart would have had a chance to pass. Basically he didn't.
I guess John Andretti won't be on Stewart's Christmas list this year. Did you hear Tony rip him not once, but twice during interviews with the NBC crew? I thought that was a bit excessive. I'm sure Andretti didn't take out Stewart in practice deliberately. You'd think Tony could have put it to rest after finishing second, but he had to cast more blame on Andretti for not being able to win it -- the car woulda run better if all those parts hadn't been banged up by that so-and-so. Sheesh.
MY PICKS: Looks like I should have followed my intuition and kept Jeff Gordon and dumped Rusty Wallace, who crashed out early. Here's how my predictions went, with commentary:
* Rusty Wallace (winner) -- 29th, might have been better if not for the wreck. But he wasn't running very well beforehand.
* Ryan Newman -- 34th, *sigh* Almost made it through the Big One, but got enough damage that he was stuck behind the wall longer than some of the others who got patched together faster. He could have finished in the high 20s if he'd spent less time hammering out the damage. Another typically disappointing Newman Daytona performance.
* Jamie McMurray -- 36th, Another guy who got caught up in the big wreck. He wasn't one of the cars to beat, but he might have been around in the top 15.
* Elliott Sadler -- 7th, Good to see the 38 finish well, although he was never a factor for the win.
* Dale Jarrett -- 10th, This was exactly where I would have picked DJ to finish. It's his best run since Rockingham last February.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 1st, Yeah, yeah, yeah. No-brainer to be in the top 10. I'm only disappointed with where he wound up.
* Tony Stewart -- 2nd, Griping about Andretti aside, Tony had a car capable of winning. He'll get one eventually.
* Brian Vickers -- 39th, Another mediocre run cut shorter by the big wreck.
* Michael Waltrip -- 38th, I had forgotten that I picked Mikey for a top 10. Now I'm wishing I hadn't. At least he walked away from his end-over-ender.
* Kevin Harvick -- 4th, Wish he'd been closer to the front near the end. He would have given Junior a run for his money.
THE OTHERS...
* Scott Wimmer -- 3rd, Should have known this Bill Davis number had a chance, as it was in Victory Lane two years ago.
* Jimmie Johnson -- 5th, I thought he or his car would self destruct before the end. Neither did.
* Joe Nemechek -- 6th, I'm surprised. Probably shouldn't be, because "Front Row Joe" seems to do well at the plate tracks.
* Jeff Gordon -- 8th, I'm kicking myself for counting him out. Even starting from 39th his car looked good most of the day, but it was never as strong as the top two.
* Matt Kenseth -- 9th, Only Roush entry to make the cut. Guess now we know how he won his championship. He was quiet most of the day but hung around with the leaders.
AND OTHER NOTABLES...
* Greg Biffle -- 12th, Pole-sitter made his presence felt, but own mistakes did him in (as I suspected they might).
* John Andretti -- 13th, Maybe he should knock fenders with Tony Stewart more often.
* Casey Mears -- 14th, Best finish in a long, long time.
* Dave Blaney -- 15th, Ran well but faded at crunch time.
* Kurt Busch -- 16th, Erase that one-lap deficit and he might have been a factor for the win.
* Brendan Gaughan -- 19th, second-highest finishing rookie. Kept his car in one piece.
And more on Jeff Gordon...
If I'm not mistaken, this is only the second time in his career that he hasn't gotten into the field on time/qualifying. The 39th place start Sunday would be his lowest grid position ever (excluding trips to the back of the field for other reasons). I'm not optimistic.
Daytona prediction
Let's see how many of these guys will finish in the top 10:
Winner: Rusty Wallace (I know I said Jeff Gordon, but I'm reneging; he hasn't run well at all this week). Rusty's due for a big one, and he's never won the 500.
Rest of the top 10 (in no particular order):
* Ryan Newman
* Jamie McMurray
* Elliott Sadler
* Dale Jarrett
* Dale Earnhardt Jr.
* Tony Stewart
* Brian Vickers
* Michael Waltrip
* Kevin Harvick
...Here's praying for no rain!
Preseason predictions
OK, here's my prediction for the top 10 at the end of the year:
10 -- Jamie McMurray: Second season for this kid and a great team to back him up. Experience puts him in the show at the end of the year.
9 -- Matt Kenseth: History suggests that defending champs often suffer a letdown the following season. Kenseth is a model of consistency, but in the New NASCAR you've gotta win. And the law of averages (bad luck) ought to catch up with him soon.
8 -- Bobby Labonte: He started hot last year and faded toward season's end. Lack of Joe Gibbs in the front office will affect his teams. Bobby should be a factor in the Chase.
7 -- Kurt Busch: Just missed the top 10 on the final race of the '03 season. He's a good driver, and he should settle down after last season's antics with Jimmy Spencer.
6 -- Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale will be many folks' pick to win it all. Maybe he can. He showed great improvement last year. But I'll believe he's a championship contender when I see him finally win one. I think all the commercial endorsements have to eventually take their toll on this up-and-coming star.
5 -- Jeff Gordon: I'd like to place him higher, and knowing his past I could easily see him winning it all with the new format. But this isn't the mid-'90s anymore, and Jeff's odds of winning number five get longer as the competition steps it up. I see him being more focused on bringing up guys like Johnson and Vickers than on winning for himself. Still, look for him to win his traditional three or four races in '04.
4 -- Tony Stewart: No contract worries this year, but like Labonte he will be affected by the front office shakeup. I think Tony will have an "up" season after last year's disappointment.
3 -- Kevin Harvick: Another guy who could easily win it all, but he needs to can some of the attitude and focus on racing. I don't think last season was a fluke.
2 -- Jimmie Johnson: Would have won it all under the new format if it had been in place last year. He got burned by several late-race mishaps last year. But he's the real deal, and with Hendrick behind him this could be the year. He might even do a Ryan Newman-like tour of Victory Lane in '04, given the right circumstances.
1 -- Ryan Newman: I'm going out on a limb here, I know. Ryan would have been a lock for the title last year if not for his early season bad luck/inconsistency. The eight wins aside, he showed remarkable poise for a second-year driver, and his team still has a tremendous advantage with all the engineering degrees present. With Penske's switch to Dodge a year behind them, this should be the year they can focus on the bigger picture, and will.
...and Brian Vickers for Rookie of the Year.
Welcome, Sean!
It looks like the Tony Stewart contingent has joined the Ryan Newman and Jeff Gordon party.
Just to clarify, most of us Newman fans wouldn't argue that Flyin' Ryan should have won the championship last year, despite his eight wins. All those DNFs early in the season took him out of the contest before he even got a chance to start. And even under the new points system he wouldn't have won it, mainly because the bulk of his wins all came before the 10-race "playoff." Jimmie Johnson would have won it all.
The point is (or should be) that consistency wins championships, whether or not you win each week. Matt Kenseth has been accused of being a boring champion, but he'll be boring all the way to the bank. Nothing wrong with only winning once in a season if you manage to finish most of the other 35 races in the top 10, which he did 25 times.
I think that's what I like least about the new points system in that it penalizes consistency for the first 26 races and puts all the emphasis on Win Baby without a representative sample of the tracks these guys run on the rest of the year. In the final 10 there are no Sears Points or Watkins Glens. And you only get Martinsville from the short track trio. Talladega is cool because you need at least one restrictor track, but why all the rest a bunch of boring mile-and-a-halfers? Tracks like Kansas and Lowe's and Atlanta are all so much alike... yawn. Too bad we don't get Indy, or Bristol in the mix. At least Homestead will be more exciting with its new configuration, as last season's race proved it can be.
Anyhow, we'll have lots of time to debate the new points. Suffice it to say that love 'em or hate 'em, the new rules will make things interesting.
Finally, Something To Do During NFL Offseason
Will Tony Stewart's luck change at Daytona? A horrific crash one year, an engine failure on the second lap the next. He didn't run well in the shootout or qualifying. Tony, Tony, Tony!
Speaking of Tony (the Tiger that is), Terry Labonte looked ggggrrrrrreat in the shootout. He looks like a contender for the top ten once again.
As for the new point system, it SUCKS! It was just done to improve ratings when CRASHCAR has to compete with NawFuL at the end of the season. My system would be to give 25 bonus points for the winner of a race and 10 points for leading five laps or more (none of that one lap lead on a pit stop). I would also give no points at all for any driver finishing lower than 30th in a race. That will remove the incentive for damaged cars to get back in the race, losing their sheet metal as they go. It will also make it harder on the Derrick Copes of the world to enter every race and finish last all the time.
Also, Ryan Newman wouldn't have deserved a championship last season. There has to be some reward for consistency and Newman was "checker or wrecker" last year.
Welcome, race fans
With football season behind us, it is time to turn our attention to that other sport that sucks up our time nine months out of the year: NASCAR. And what better time to start a new blog on the subject than during Speedweeks?
After watching the Bud Shootout on Sunday, I had horrific flashbacks to the '03 Daytona 500 with Ryan Newman barrel rolling through the infield grass. His last-lap crash with Jamie McMurray was not anywhere near as spectacular, but it leads me to wonder why this hot young gun can't catch a break at Daytona? He was slow in the shootout, slow in qualifying, and I fear he is doomed to disaster this Sunday.
But then Flyin' Ryan always seems to find a way to get towards the front when the heat is on -- that is, when he keeps his car in tact. We'll see how he does Sunday.
Meanwhile, my other perennial favorite, Jeff Gordon, was only slightly better than Newman in qualifying. I have to believe that he will overcome his poor showing in the time trials and run well Sunday. I still look for him to win the race. (Am I being overly optimistic?)
And what of Dale Jarrett, who snagged his first win in almost a year with the Shootout victory? I think he'll be better this year, but I'm not picking him to win the 500. Top 10 maybe. Little E? The kid can run on the restrictor tracks and will be a factor, but it's not his turn yet.
Greg Biffle on the pole? A fluke. He'll never be able to back it up. At least he'll get to run next year's shootout. Always nice to see a different face.
