gNA$hCAR Notes
Week 20 — Pocono
Haven't we been here before? Oh yeah, six weeks ago, when the sun was shining, when the yellow flag was flying high, and when Dale Earnhardt Jr was still the points leader. Remember that thrilling final lap when Jimmie Johnson cruised around to the checkers (at about 70 mph) and giant picnic objects were hurled at the flag stand?
Enjoy the memories, because now it's summer and the rain is falling. There's fog, too. Green-white-checker? Forgeddaboudit. They'll be lucky to get the full 200 laps in without a red flag or three. Why do we race here twice a year? Maybe when they get the new track built in New York they can steal one of Pocono's dates. Yeah, right!
OK, here's Glenn's Ten:
* Jeremy Mayfield (winner) -- Help me, I'm going off the deep end! But there's logic here: This is the last race Mayfield won, four years ago. He finished second here in June. He hasn't been running poorly, and in fact is trying to make it into the Championship Chase (106 points out of 10th). And with the foul weather canceling practice Saturday, it's gonna take a team that can get it right off the truck to have a good shot. The Evernham guys seem to know this track well, so why not?
The rest of the top 10 (in no particular order):
* Casey Mears -- He's got the pole! First one ever. He finished 10th here in June. Can he best 7th place finally?
* Kurt Busch -- Coming off a win, and he likes this track. Can this be the start of a midseason surge?
* Jamie McMurray -- I know this will only jinx him, but he has incentive, just 134 points out of 10th.
* Jimmie Johnson -- Defending champ at this track. Has to grow that points lead some more.
* Jeff Gordon -- Starts 13th, which is about right to peak by lap 200.
* Matt Kenseth -- This spot permanently reserved for the defending Cup champ. Who will he spin out this time?
* Bobby Labonte -- Without Fatback at crew chief, who knows? But this is Labonte's track. If things come together, he might win it all.
* Dale Jarrett -- It's getting better all the time...
* Kasey Kahne -- If Mayfield's gonna win it he'll need a teammate to help him get there. That means Kasey, could they finish 1-2? Naw.
And what about... Dale Earnhardt Jr.? Burns will hamper him for a while. Needs to get healthy for September. ...Ryan Newman? I don't like that he's starting 30th with no practice time. That spells trouble. ...Tony Stewart? Maybe I'm missing the boat here, but I didn't have room for him on my list.
Junior feels the burn
Don't look now, Earnhardt Jr. fans, but your guy is fading down the stretch. Why, he's almost 200 points out of first, less than 400 points from being out of the top 10! Horrors! Oh yeah, this is the new gNA$hCAR, where you are allowed to be hundreds of points behind and still win a championship.
So, Junior had a bad day at New Hampshire, they didn't have to use the green-white-checker rule despite 12 cautions, Tony Stewart didn't wreck anyone, and the race was blessedly interesting. Here's how Glenn's Ten fared for the Siemens 300 (6-for-10, not bad):
* Jimmie Johnson (winner) -- 11th, He couldn't make it three in a row here. Chad Knauss admitted that he got the setup wrong. Still, 11th is not a disaster, and he emerged with a bigger lead than before the day began.
* Ryan Newman -- 3rd, 187 laps at the point wasn't enough to hold off Kurt Busch.
* Martin Truex/Dale Earnhardt Juniors -- 31st, Junior gets the attaboy for toughing out the first 60 laps with his burns and putting Truex in a position to have a good points day. Unfortunately, the car wasn't handling well and Truex couldn't keep it off the wall. He managed to keep it running till the finish, though.
* Kasey Kahne -- 8th, Solid day paid off with a top 10.
* Jeff Gordon -- 2nd, Looked like he was going to do a classic last-lap victory. Ascended steadily from his 24th-place start and pressured Busch several times for the lead, but couldn't quite get there.
* Tony Stewart -- 5th, Tony drives much better when he's in the eye of the storm.
* Ward Burton -- 29th, At least he finished on the lead lap.
* Greg Biffle -- 35th, Biffle burns me again! I'm through picking this guy!
* Matt Kenseth -- 4th, Got there the way he always does. Started deep in the field and clawed his way up to a good finish.
* Dale Jarrett -- 9th, It's getting fun to watch DJ again. He used some good pit strategy to gain about 16 spots and ran as high as second. And he goosed Rusty Wallace late in the race, putting the blue deuce in the wall. Still a longshot for the Chase.
THE REST OF THE TOP 10:
* Kurt Busch -- 1st, I completely discounted Kurt, starting so deep in the field (32nd). But Jimmy Fennig got the car dialed in and produced a trip to Victory Lane. This is the same car that loist a fan belt at Richmond while leading the race. Maybe Jimmy picked up a new fan belt from Rick's Automotive. (Now, let's go back to the dream about the clowns...)
* Michael Waltrip -- 6th, Another top 10 for Mikey. Ran second to Ryan Newman for the first half of the race.
* Jamie McMurray -- 7th, When I pick him he doesn't finish well, when I don't...
* Jeremy Mayfield -- 10th, Only got in because Rusty Wallace hit the wall.
OTHER NOTABLES:
* Jeff Burton -- 12th, 4-time New Hampshire winner had a solid day.
* Mark Martin -- 14th, Nice afternoon for the Rouschies.
* Bobby Hamilton Jr. -- 19th, Good finish running in crappy equipment. Like to see what he can do in the good stuff.
* Casey Mears -- 26th, My dark horse stayed in the dark.
* Ricky Craven -- 38th, Crashed twice at his home track. His days with Cal Wells can't end too soon.
Next week... Back to Pocono, where maybe we can run more than half the race under green this time.
Changing The Rules
Granted, Nascar's new rule providing a green-white-checker finish is a good one, but I'm getting a bit tired of all these mid-season rule changes. Did the NFL add instant replay in the middle of a season? Did they add a three point line in the NBA in mid-season? I don't think so! NASCAR should just let the whole season play out as it was drawn up at the beginning of the year. Make the rule changes in the offseason, and while your at it, get rid of this horrid playoff format!
Week 19 — New Hampshire
The second half of the season starts this week. It's crunch time for the championship chase, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. is (quite literally) on fire, but are we about to see his season go up in smoke?
New Hampshire seems like it should be a pretty dull race as far as gNA$hCAR's tracks go, given its flat banking an mile-long configuration, but it has produced some excellent racing since it was repaved last year. Gone is the crumbling asphalt, and now we have two racing grooves that will allow guys like Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon to pass to their hearts' content. This one's a mere 300 miles, so the only thing that will slow the pace might be Mother Nature and the dozen or so caution flags we'll get for spinouts in the turns.
Glenn's Ten:
* Jimmie Johnson (winner) -- J.J. all but owns this place. In four previous races he has run well here, including his win last fall after bouncing back from a pit road incident with his teammate/owner, Jeff Gordon. He's got a good spot on the grid (2nd) and has the team that will get him to Victory Lane on Sunday.
The rest of the top 10 (in no particular order):
* Ryan Newman -- four top 10s in four starts, and the pole!
* Martin Truex/Dale Earnhart Juniors. -- Say what? Dale will sit in the car long enough to start the race, but the pressure will be on his young protege to nail down a good finish and pick up points for Driver 8 -- not that it will matter much since he only has to make the top 10 by the end of the Richmond race in September to preserve his shot at a championship, and he'd have to crap out of a lot more races to suffer that monumental a collapse... Don't underestimate Truex, who salvaged a good finish in Saturday's Busch race and will have a good crew behind him on Sunday. The kid can race and could even win. But he'll have to come from the back of the pack, thanks to the driver swap. If there is any better argument that the Cup drivers should take advantage of their bye weeks for R&R instead of moonlight driving gigs, Dale Jr. is this week's poster boy. His fiery crash at Sonoma last weekend was nothing short of frightening. He was lucky he only suffered a few second-degree burns.
* Kasey Kahne -- Oh yeah, back to the picks... Kasey finished in the top 5 Saturday and should do well at a track that seems to be friendly to young guns. Will this be the week for his first win???
* Jeff Gordon -- Don't let the 24th-place start fool you, he'll get the car dialed in on race day. This was once one of his best tracks, and with Johnson running strong here you can bet there will be some sharing of setup notes.
* Tony Stewart -- He's got a one-race winning streak going.
* Ward Burton -- Will the Zero be a hero this week? One of the few places Ward has won. As long as he doesn't get spun out...
* Greg Biffle -- OK, I'm flying on a wing and a prayer here, but Greg
can run well when he wants to. He didn't on Saturday. Maybe he's over the bad luck.
* Matt Kenseth -- Saturday's Busch winner. Always finds a way...
* Dale Jarrett -- He's starting to make the competition sit up and take notice again.
Sleeper picks: Jeff Burton, who used to run well here every visit, and Casey Mears, who is still looking for that first top 5.
What's up at Joe Gibbs Racing?
I ask this question in the wake of Michael "Fatback" McSwain's firing as Bobby Labonte's crew chief this week. Obviously there is more going on there than the flimsy excuse they gave that it was time for a change. True, Labonte hasn't won since his immaculate victory at Homestead-Miami last November, and he has led just 26 laps this season, but can you really argue with a guy who's sixth in the standings and firmly in the hunt for the Championship Chase? I guess the obvious answer is yes. Rumors are that McSwain was tough to get along with and possibly got into an altercation with one of his own crew guys, but there have been other crew chiefs who haven't exactly been easy to work with. They get paid to be tough on their crews -- that's what helps separate the winners from the chumps in good equipment.
Labonte wasn't having an awful season, despite a couple of notably bad finishes at Sonoma and Atlanta earlier this year. He has a half-dozen top fives and nine top-10s, which is more than most drivers have to show over the first 18 races. Somebody is going to scoop up a diamond in the rough if they get Fatback on their team now. Let's hope he fares better than ending up with someone like Kyle Petty.
On the other side of the coin you've got Tony Stewart. The guy obviously has the talent and the right people in place to win another championship, but he has been exhibiting his self-destructive tendencies this year. There are those who have been calling for Tony's suspension after a series of well publicized incidents, particularly after this week's fiasco at Chicagoland where Kasey Kahne wrecked in front of a hard-charging Tony and all hell ensued in the pits as the two crews had at it. I don't think this one was Tony's fault, but he has been earning a reputation this season as a hothead and a jerk with his pre- and post-race comments. He's been fine, placed on probation and had points deducted by the gNA$hCAR head honchos. Suspension would be the next step, but why should it have to come to that? Tony just needs to get his life together and focus on racing rather than revenge. Perhaps the Chicagoland win will get the chip off his shoulder for the crucial second half.
I said at the start of the season that Joe Gibbs' departure from the head office would negatively affect both the #18 and #20 teams this year. So far that seems to be the unfortunate case. Maybe if the Redskins fall flat on their noses this fall we can get Gibbs back into "retirement" and back with his Cup franchise, where they need his firm hand on a daily basis.
Big Orange rules the day in Chicagoland
That's Big Orange, as in the Home Depot Chevy, which led the most laps en route to Tony Stewart's first win of the season. It wasn't pretty, but it was hard-fought. I'll get right to the results, and they weren't pretty for Glenn's Ten (4-of-10):
* Kasey Kahne (winner) -- 36th, Ugh! When is this kid gonna catch a break. He got taken out on a controversial restart while leading the race. Not the first time this year he has crashed out in the lead. Replays show that Tony Stewart got into the back of Kahne after trying to pass cars on the high side, but I don't think it was all Tony's fault, other than the fact he took air off the #9, which caused the wreck that took out several cars. Try telling that to Tommy Baldwin and Ray Evernham. Kahne's crew gets an "A" for ruckus raising after the melee in the pits with Stewart's crew.
* Jeff Gordon -- 4th, Jeff gets the comeback of the day award for taking a loose car and getting it strong enough to contend in the final 11 laps. About 20 more laps and he would have been dragging Tony for the win. Gained about 10 spots in the final 20 laps.
* Jimmie Johnson -- 2nd, Only car all day that could challenge Tony. Jimmie admitted the car wasn't as strong on the last run, and it showed. Still, another top 5 helps add to the points lead.
* Ryan Newman -- 34th, *Sniff* Cut tire, hello wall. What more can you say? In serious jeopardy of falling out of the top 10, which is about the only chance anyone has of making the Championship Chase right now.
* Kevin Harvick -- 10th, Just slipped in, thanks to Mark Martin blowing an engine or whatever happened to him with about four to go.
* Tony Stewart -- 1st, Maybe Tony should wreck his primary car in practice every week. I think the switch to NBC from Fox this week probably was extra inspiration -- he's been nothing short of badgered by the Fox crew the past 17 weeks, if not undeservedly. Benny Parsons seems a little more willing to forgive than Darrell Waltrip where it comes to Tony's transgressions. Tony dominated the race and deserved the victory.
* Bobby Labonte -- 18th, What's up with this team? Must be that ugly yellow and purple Wellbutrin paint scheme. Labonte's due for a win soon.
* Casey Mears -- 15th, The kid got robbed. Had a strong car much of the day, but got burned by an off-sequence pit stop for debris on the grill that kept him a lap down until about the final 50 laps. He would have been a top 10 easily otherwise.
* Matt Kenseth -- 12th, Ran quietly all day. Led a lap or two.
* Jamie McMurray -- 13th, Hopes for the Chase remain alive, thanks to Newman's and Kurt Busch's bad luck.
REST OF THE TOP 10:
* Dale Jarrett -- 3rd, DJ's back! A classic Jarrett climb through the field that put him in contention near the end of the day. That win's coming...
* Jeremy Mayfield -- 5th, At least one of the Evernham cars finished well. Jeremy's getting close to a win, too.
* Terry Labonte -- 6th, I blew it. I should have put my trust in the old guys instead of the Young Guns. Terry's son Justin won the Busch race yesterday, so maybe that was extra incentive for a good finish.
* Sterling Marlin -- 7th, Someone tell these guys to stop with the 2-tire strategy. You aren't Ryan Newman.
* Joe Nemechek -- 8th, No one talks about how these guys are running well almost every week. Take away the crashes and equipment failures late in the race and Joe would have a few more top 10's to show for his effort.
* Michael Waltrip -- 9th, Recovered from a 39th place start. Who says Mikey can't run well?
OTHER NOTABLES:
* Rusty Wallace -- 11th, Penske standard bearer on an otherwise abysmal weekend.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 22nd, Glug, glug, glug... That's the sound of points going down the drain. Got a couple laps down, got caught up in the Kasey Kahne crash, benefited from the Lucky Dog free pass and just never got into the race. Now trails Johnson by more than 100 points. Don't worry, Little E fans, it will all be a wash after Richmond in a few weeks. I knew this was going to be a long day for Driver 8 from his first on-camera interview. About 45 minutes before the race he was still wearing street clothes when everyone else was dressed in their fire suits. What was with that? And after the race he looked really TIRED. Methinks Dale partied too hardy last night.
* Mark Martin -- 24th, That Viagra Ford looked awesome today... until in conked out three laps from the finish line and what would have been a top 5.
* Jeff Burton -- 33rd, Rolled off 6th and looked sharp in those Comcast colors. Too bad he was in the vicinity of Kasey Kahne's calamity.
* Kurt Busch -- 35th, An innocent victim in the Ryan Newman wipeout. But that's the kind of season it's been for the #97.
Next week... We're off! The gNA$hCAR schedule gods are giving Junior a chance to reassess his season next week, or is that the officials a chance to determine how many fines to levy against Kahne's team? We'll be back in two weeks for the New Hampshire race.
Week 18 — Chicagoland
Welcome to the future of NASCAR — the fast, cookie-cutter 1.5-mile oval called Chicagoland Speedway. This will be just the fourth race at this track, but already it is developing a reputation for high-speed thrills and being friendly to the Young Gun-types, who have dominated the first three races here. Who will forget Kevin Harvick's spin-and-win in 2002? Or Ryan Newman's trip to Victory Lane in 2003 after a hard-charging Harvick ran out of gas, falling short in his bid for a third-straight Chicagoland win? What will the 2004 edition of this race hold in store? The Busch boys already saw their share of excitement on Friday when a giant inflatable orange rolled across the track. And Jeff Gordon served notice to the Cup teams with his fourth pole in as many weeks that he is a threat to win it all this year.
Here is Glenn's Ten for Chicagoland:
* Kasey Kahne (winner) -- I had to think long and hard about this, but I'm banking on the fact that this track is nice and wide and easy to drive, and that young guys with fast cars like Kahne seem to do well. Plus, Kasey is due for his first win after four second-place finishes this season. This could be the place he finally breaks through.
The rest of the top 10 (in no particular order):
* Jeff Gordon -- Hard to bet against him with the tear he's on now, but it's tough to win two in a row anymore, let alone three. Still, this is one of just four tracks he's never won at and he would dearly love to do so.
* Jimmie Johnson -- Has to keep notching those top 5's to stay up front in the points chase.
* Ryan Newman -- Second in 2002, first in 2003. He'll be somewhere close to that Sunday.
* Kevin Harvick -- Won the first two races here, and might have made it three if not for a fuel crisis. His Championship Chase hopes are in serious jeopardy. Time to step it up.
* Tony Stewart -- Backup car or not, Tony the Terror will get to the top 10.
* Bobby Labonte -- As Tony goes...
* Casey Mears -- Can we beat 7th place for a change?
* Matt Kenseth -- Starts 26th. What else is new?
* Jamie McMurray -- Every time I don't pick him he seems to do well, and vice-versa. Championship Chase hopes not completely dashed yet, but getting close.
Sleeper pick: Brian Vickers (who ran well at Daytona and may finally be turning things around.)
And what about... Dale Earnhardt Jr.? This is a crucial stretch for the media's heir-apparent to the NASCAR crown. He choked a couple of weeks ago at Michigan. He had to settle for third at Daytona, where we all know anything less than first is a disappointing day. I just see Junior struggling to about 15th or 20th here.
Cola wars
It's a good thing they run 190 mph at Daytona. Otherwise, they might not have gotten in Saturday's rain-delayed race under the lights. How about those calls for more Saturday night races? Maybe if they could run them all in Nevada where there's no weather. But I digress...
The best memory from the Pepsi 400 will be Jeff Gordon standing in victory lane with his Pepsi Win A Billion car asking rhetorically what "all those red cars were doing out there," referring of course to the Coca-Cola C2 scheme that appeared on the hoods of no less than eight cars. What was with that anyway? Coke trying to up its odds that it might be sitting in victory lane at its rival's namesake race, no doubt. Well, it only took Pepsi one car to make it to the winner's circle, and what a dominant performance he turned in. Jeff was the man to beat all night, and not even the usually dominant DEI cars could keep up with him.
Would you believe that at one point around mid-race I had the top six cars? Yep. True. Was as high as 7-out-of-10 close to the finish, but alas, the position shuffling that Daytona is famous for left me a disappointing 5-of-10:
GLENN'S TEN:
* Dale Jarrett (winner) -- 16th, Did his drop-to-the-back thing all right, but he never got back up with the leaders. Don't think the car was all that good.
* Jeff Gordon -- 1st, This guy is on fire, even when he does leave the flames parked at home. They talked about him on the pre-race and said he is back on his game because he has put some of his personal issues to rest. If so, that's bad news for the competition. Something tells me Jeff's not done winning yet this year. Four victories this season leads the league and leaves him just eight shy of tying Dale Earnhardt (Sr., not Jr.) for career wins.
* Jimmie Johnson -- 2nd, Got to push his teammate across the line and picked up another top 5. Didn't lead a lap.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 3rd, Recovered from the speedboat routine following pit stop midway through the race, when he wound up in the wet grass trying to avoid contact with Jeff Gordon and Brian Vickers. Don't think that played a role in his failure to win. Judging from the way he blew by Gordon a couple of times on the track, he certainly had a car equal to the task if things had worked out differently in the closing laps.
* Michael Waltrip -- 13th, Mikey got shuffled out of the draft and seemed to be having engine troubles at one point. An atypical restrictor performance.
* Elliott Sadler -- 26th, Got nicked in the Ward Burton/Matt Kenseth crash early and the car never looked good.
* Greg Biffle -- 31st, Biffle blew my night when he had mechanical trouble in the closing laps and fell out of the top 10, where he had been most of the race.
* Kevin Harvick -- 14th, What's up with Harvick this year? Guy's not getting the good finishes at tracks where he should be running better. Not that this was awful, but this is the same guy everyone's been saying has a shot at a Daytona win.
* Mark Martin -- 6th, A solid performance. Didn't hear much about him, but he was consistently moving up in the pack and briefly challenged for the lead in the final laps.
* Tony Stewart -- 5th, Could have seen this coming after the week he's had. Got to the front, but didn't have the tires (or the horsepower) to hold off Gordon at the end.
REST OF THE TOP 10:
* Kurt Busch -- 4th, I came close to picking him. He needed some breaks to fall his way if he was going to win this one.
* Bobby Labonte -- 7th, Ugly paint scheme didn't keep him from sneaking into the top 10.
* Terry Labonte -- 8th, Reports that he is ready to retire may be premature.
* Brian Vickers -- 9th, A 4-for-4 night for the Hendrick cars. Ran as high as second but never led a lap.
* Joe Nemechek -- 10th, See what happens when I dis a guy? He winds up having a good run. Been a while since we've seen Joe with a top 10 to show for his decent run.
OTHER NOTABLES:
* Casey Mears -- 11th, I'm convinced now that the kid has some talent. Just wait until he gets a win one of these days.
* Ryan Newman -- 12th, Just doesn't have it at these restrictor tracks, but at least he finished.
* Kyle Petty -- 24th, Gotta love his honesty in the pre-race. When being interviewed about this being the 20th anniversary of his dad's 200th career win, he was asked if he might be ready to make some more Petty memories in this race, to which Kyle responded that some guys were leaders and others were followers, and that he was going to be one of the followers tonight. That's a tactful way of acknowledging your loser status.
* Matt Kenseth -- 39th, Couldn't miss a wrecking Ward Burton and took a huge hit in the points. Now down to 5th.
* John Andretti -- 43rd, #1 equals first car out of the race. Not a strong argument for bringing back the #1 full time next season.
Next week... Fox hands over the reins to NBC and Jeff Gordon goes for the trifecta with his first win at Chicagoland.
Week 17 — Daytona
We're almost at halfway through the '04 season, and now we start heading to tracks we've already seen once in the previous 16 weeks. Daytona, of course, was the site of Dale Jr.'s win back in February, the race that vaulted him to the top of everyone's list as the next Nextel Cup champion. What has happened since then? Jimmie Johnson. Not only has he usurped Junior's spot at the top of the points standings, but he is pulling away a little each week. It means nothing under the new rules, you say? Just five points a position for the start of the Championship Chase in Week 27? It's also psychological. Just ask Johnson, who said as much in a recent interview. Wonder what coming in as the points leader did to help his game at Sonoma last week, where he finished 5th. Wonder how it might impact things at Daytona on Saturday night? Read Glenn's Ten for my prediction:
* Dale Jarrett (winner) -- Oh, I'm going out on a limb here. DJ's been improving his game week after week, and you know it's just a matter of time before he's back in the winner's circle. What better place to make his return than at Daytona, where he is no stranger to victory. Remember that he won the Bud Shootout here in February, using the same car he'll have Saturday night. He'll hang around near the back until the last 20 laps, then surprise some folks.
The rest of the top 10 (in no particular order):
* Jeff Gordon -- If not Dale, then Jeff's my man. He's on a roll and has the pole (third race in a row). But he has the Pepsi car instead of his DuPont flames, and that usually bodes ill.
* Jimmie Johnson -- Will notch yet another top 5.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- Yes, this is his track probably until the day he retires. But he's had his Daytona win for the year, and the competition (namely Hendrick and Yates) have DEI's number at last.
* Michael Waltrip -- When
doesn't the #15 run well on a restrictor track? He's racking up top 10s again.
* Elliott Sadler -- DJ's teammate has also shown the winning spirit at Daytona (Twin 125 in February).
* Greg Biffle -- Has to prove that last year wasn't a fluke. Maybe he'll do so in more conventional fashion.
* Kevin Harvick -- He's been letting me down lately. Childress cars tend to do well here, provided they stay in one piece to the finish.
* Mark Martin -- Are we done blowing engines? If so, then just maybe...
* Tony Stewart -- gNA$hCAR's resident bad boy has a knack for bouncing back the week after being involved in major controversy. Besides, he needs the money and the points after being slapped with penalties following last week's roughing up of Brian Vickers.
Sleeper picks: Jeff Burton (see my note with Mark Martin), Ward Burton, Matt Kenseth (who usually finds a way, but I'm picking against him.)
And why not... Ryan Newman? (Average finish here of 26th in five appearances.) Bobby Labonte? (Will probably take someone out along with himself on the last lap.) Joe Nemechek? (See that big smoke plume on lap 140?)
