gNA$hCAR Notes
Still Chasin'
So it would appear that I was a bit premature in writing off the seaons of Matt Kenseth and Jeff Gordon several weeks ago. Both finished well enough Saturday at Bristol to put themselves back into contention for the Chase, which begins after the Richmond race in less than two weeks.
Gordon hung tough to get a top 10 and sneak into the 10th spot in the points standings. Kenseth won the race -- his first since Las Vegas a year ago -- and is just 11 points out of 10th. Nice to see the champs step up when the going gets tough.
I stepped it up too on Saturday, collecting more than half of my picks in the top 10. There were a couple of low lights, but I'll get to those soon enough.
GLENN'S TEN (6-for-10... a good night!)
* Jeff Gordon (winner) -- 6th, Jeff, as has so often been the case this season, did not have a dominant car. He hung around in the top 5 for a bit until the second round of pit stops when he got out ahead of Kenseth and managed to lead for a while. But the car was rarely to his liking, and for a time he was mired in mid-pack banging fenders with teammate Brian Vickers. He got the car adjusted well enough that he made up several spots on the final green-flag run. Just enough to get back into the top 10, but will he be able to stay there now?
* Rusty Wallace -- 5th, Rusty got to lead some laps in his final Bristol race. The car wasn't strong enough to win on old tires after he stayed out when everyone else came in.
* Ryan Newman -- 39th, Low light number one: Newman had a good car. Maybe not good enough to win, but surely a top 10. Unfortunately, he got into it on track with Dale Jarrett. He appeared to bump Dale unintentionally around lap 200, and then about 100 laps later they met up again when Newman tried to lap Jarrett's slower car. It seemed pretty clear from the replay that Dale body slammed Newman and put both of them into the wall. Ryan wasn't able to continue, which drops him to 9th in the points and precariously close to not making the field. Hopefully he can rally from this, as California and Richmond are two of his better tracks.
* Kurt Busch -- 10th, This was a new car and apparently not as good as the one that got him his wins here. It was good enough for me.
* Tony Stewart -- 8th, Tony has nothing to gain right now from pushing for wins. This car wasn't good enough to win anyhow, but he hung around in the teens until cars up front had trouble, then took fresh tires on the final round of pit stops.
* Kevin Harvick -- 37th, Low light number 2: Happy probably isn't very happy with Dale Jarrett and Ryan Newman. He had a decent car, but was the innocent victim in the Newman/Jarrett tiff. He tried to dive to the apron and couldn't avoid Newman's car which slid right into him. This all but kills Harvick's chances of making the chase.
* Elliott Sadler -- 13th, The two-tire strategy got him up front briefly, but it didn't help him stay in the top 10 when other guys took fresh tires on the final pit stops.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 9th, How many times can one driver be the beneficiary of the free pass? Junior got three of them early in the race, then got his car working well enough to make the show. He was on the march, but needed probably another 150 laps to get to the front.
* Greg Biffle -- 3rd, Another decent night for the Roush cars. I think Biff may have been penalized for speeding in the pits, which he blamed for not finishing better.
* Kyle Busch -- 33rd, Not even Johnny Bravo on the hood could keep his car out of trouble. He spent about 50 laps behind the wall.
REST OF THE TOP 10:
* Matt Kenseth -- 1st, He proved the rare pole wasn't just a fluke. Matt dominated the race and deserved every moment of that victory lane celebration.
* Jeff Burton -- 2nd, Another guy who would have deserved the chance to celebrate had he been able to catch Kenseth. It's been nearly five years since Burton's last win. This was easily the best run he's had in many moons.
* Ricky Rudd -- 4th, I'm starting to think Ricky's for real again. The short tracks are his thing, and Richmond in two weeks will give him one more chance to shine. He dodged a couple of bullets on the track and the car didn't suffer mechnaical issues, which is a far cry from the Motorcraft Ford of old.
* Mike Bliss -- 7th, Always interesting how as the season wanes the guys on the bubble for keeping their jobs suddenly start to improve.
OTHER NOTABLES:
* Ken Schrader -- 11th, Short tracks are the great equalizer for the lesser teams.
* Jeremy Mayfield -- 18th, Respectable finish keeps him comfortably in the Chase picture.
* Dale Jarrett -- 31st, Not too often that DJ gets cast in the role of villain. But he played it to the hilt Saturday. gNA$hCAR penalized him a couple of laps after the dust-up with Newman. He refused interview requests at the end of the race. This leaves his 78 points behind Gordon for the 10th Chase spot, so it's understandable why he would be upset.
* Jimmie Johnson -- 36th, Terminal engine problems ended his night early. It really doesn't matter much, as he's still second in points.
Next week... The new Labor Day weekend tradition continues under the lights at California Speedway.
Week 24 -- Bristol
Saturday night under the lights at Bristol Motor Speedway is always a trip. The fact that there are a mere three races to go before the cutoff for the Chase to the Championship only adds to the drama.
As if we needed more drama than Matt Kenseth sitting on the pole. When was the last time that happened? Oh yeah, just once before in the guy's entire career. A fluke, but one he's no doubt happy about. OK, Matty's had his fun. Time to move over and let the serious contenders by.
GLENN'S TEN:
* Jeff Gordon (winner) -- This track will either cure what ails you or ail what cures you. Jeff's already ailing, sitting 58 points shy of the all-important 10th spot in the standings. He had a very disappointing day at Michigan, which he could ill afford. He
NEEDSa win big time. The fact he almost always runs well here coupled with the fact that he is on the outside pole will go a long way to sending him to victory. The time is now and this is definitely the place, where he's won five times. Make it six.
REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):
* Rusty Wallace -- Rusty wants to go out with a bang at a track where he's won more times than any other active driver. He'll come close but no cigar.
* Ryan Newman -- Ryan won the Busch race here Friday night -- the third straight Busch race he's entered that he's won. When does it start happening again in the Cup series? Perhaps tonight.
* Kurt Busch -- Mr. Sharpie absolutely looooves this place. He's got the wins to prove it.
* Tony Stewart -- I always like Tony under the lights, and particularly with the hot streak he's been on.
* Kevin Harvick -- How can one guy be so crappy at most tracks he runs on and yet do so well on these short ovals? Wonder who he'll try to punch out at the end of this one?
* Elliott Sadler -- Elliott got his first win at this track in 2001 and has looked good here ever since. His Chase hopes took a severe stumble last weekend. He needs a good run to fend off the likes of Jeff Gordon, and he'll get one.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- Defending winner of this race. Think he can make it two? Naw. But maybe he'll sneak into the show despite starting 41st.
* Greg Biffle -- Got in some practice Friday night, finishing second to Ryan Newman.
* Kyle Busch -- He led the first part of Friday's race before making a pit road error. I have to believe that his big bro's success here will rub off a bit.
ALSO WATCHING: Ricky Rudd (Starts fifth, but what will the car look like when it's over?)... Kasey Kahne (A sleeper pick.)... Jeremy Mayfield (Looks safe for the Chase, but a poor finish here could be disastrous.)... Michael Waltrip (Capable of getting to the front, but needs a fair dose of good luck to keep the car out of trouble.)... Jimmie Johnson (I've lost confidence in his drive to press for a top 10 until after the Chase starts.)
Mayfield cleans up at Michigan
On a day when Michigan International Speedway resembled the county dump more than a race track, it only stood to reason that strange things were likely to happen. And any day when you find Jeremy Mayfield in the winner’s circle you know you’ve been to the gNA$hCAR equivalent of the Twilight Zone.
Mayfield himself admitted he didn’t have a car capable of winning. But when fuel strategy became a factor late in the race, he was in the right spot with just enough petrol to make it to the checkers.
I fared slightly better in my Michigan picks this time around, but still I think I should have done better.
GLENN'S TEN (5-for-10... Eh.):
* Brian Vickers (winner) -- 9th, What a bust this was, even if he did manage to make the show. The car was flat out bad most of the day, and it was only because he got a lucky dog and had good fuel economy that he finished here. I’ll take the point, but this pick was about as far off as I could get.
* Tony Stewart -- 5th, The current points leader did exactly what I said he would, charging through the field to get the top 5. Sitting pretty for the Chase.
* Greg Biffle -- 6th, The Biff ran strong, but encountered the same problem most ran into Sunday: garbage on the grill. That slowed him down only a bit, but a two-tire pit stop near the end left him with inferior rubber.
* Ryan Newman -- 12th, Where was Ryan at the end of this thing? He ran a consistent race, which keeps him in good shape to make the Chase. He had a fast pit stop for fuel in the final series of stops.
* Jeff Gordon -- 15th, It’s really hard to believe that Jeff’s team tested here after the disappointing June race. This one didn’t go any better, with the car dropping to the lower half of the field after every pit stop. It was only because the crew topped off the tank with about 54 laps to go and because they didn’t have to refuel that they finished as well as they did. Now 58 points out of 10th spot.
* Matt Kenseth -- 3rd, Matt probably should have won this race under different circumstances. He led a bunch of laps and was charging through the field near the end, but he didn’t have the fuel mileage to get the job done.
* Mark Martin -- 17th, Mark had been having a good day, as did all the Roush drivers. But he ran the water temperature too high a couple of times when he got trash on the grill and I think that may have hurt him.
* Elliott Sadler -- 39th, Elliott found the wall. End of story. Well, not quite the end. He had been running a decent race before then, and he did return to finish the thing. But this is a big hit in the points.
* Kyle Busch -- 43rd, Did I say it couldn’t get worse here for Hendrick drivers? OK, I take it back. KB caught some trash on his grill after grabbing the lead early on and had to pit with water temperature close to 300 degrees. That apparently cooked the engine enough that he eventually retired from the race for good.
* Carl Edwards -- 4th, Carl worked his way to the front and perhaps could have won this thing if not for the crappy fuel mileage he and all his teammates endured. Still, he did an awesome job to take four tires on the final pit stop under green and still finish here.
REST OF THE TOP 10:
* Jeremy Mayfield -- 1st, Where was Jeremy most of this race? Down around 20th, where he would have finished if not for good fuel economy. This is only his fifth career victory. Wonder how long it will be until the sixth?
* Scott Riggs -- 2nd, I was pulling for Scott to overtake Mayfield. But alas, Robby Gordon wouldn’t move over and cost Riggs too much time to run down the leader. Great finish for a team that badly needed one.
* Kurt Busch -- 7th, For a while I thought this would be the winner. Fuel kept him from having a better finish, despite having led the most laps.
* Joe Nemechek -- 8th, It wasn’t a win, but a decent finish backs up a pole qualifying run.
* Jimmie Johnson -- 10th, I shouldn’t have doubted him after all. Had the fastest laps of those he was chasing at one point.
OTHER NOTABLES:
* Bill Elliott -- 11th, Where did he come from?
* Kasey Kahne -- 29th, He led a few laps. Wasn’t leading the last one.
* Tony Raines -- 31st, Did anyone really think he would actually win this thing when he was leading with less than four laps to go? Mayfield would have run him down anyhow, but poor fuel economy caught him first. This would have been the upset of the decade. Too bad it wasn’t to be.
Next week: A little beatin’ and bangin’, Bristol style.
Week 23 -- Michigan
I was 4-for-10 when the Cup cars raced this track in June. I can and should do better, so I'm hoping the second time will be a charm. Is this the week Tony Stewart finally comes back to earth? No more suspense -- let's get to the picks.
GLENN'S TEN:
* Brian Vickers (winner) -- It's gotta happen eventually. Brian had a great car here in June until a stupid mistake (hitting the wall at the entrance to the pits) took him out. This is a track where you can run high or low and flat out, the way Vickers seems to like. Besides, Tony Stewart can't win them all. Can he?
REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):
* Tony Stewart -- Maybe he won't win, but I'll pick him to be in the top five by day's end. Even starting 36th.
* Greg Biffle -- Won't make it three in a row here.
* Ryan Newman -- He loves this place and is coming off a win in Saturday's Busch race. The car didn't back him up in June, but this time the guys will get it right.
* Jeff Gordon -- Starts outside pole and is on a mission to sneak into the Chase. He had a horrible race here in June, so I just half to believe he won't do a repeat this time out.
* Matt Kenseth -- Ford usually dominates in Michigan, and Kenseth has always been a factor here.
* Mark Martin -- Roush does great here too.
* Elliott Sadler -- Can't afford to have a bad day and finished well here in June.
* Kyle Busch -- May be a good day for the Hendrick drivers. Can't possibly get worse than June was.
* Carl Edwards -- I underestimated him in June. Won't do that this time.
ALSO WATCHING: Kurt Busch (Almost picked him, but I just don't know)... Jimmie Johnson (Shouldn't be counting him out, but I'm thinking top 15)... Joe Nemechek (On the pole, which is always a bad omen)... Kasey Kahne (He was fast in qualifying, but something always seems to happen in race trim).
Gee, what a surprise...
So Tony Stewart wins again. Only the fifth time in the past seven races. You've gotta sort of wonder if he's going to keep this up through the Chase or if he's shooting his wad now only to suffer the disappointment that Jimmie Johnson found in last year's championship drive.
That remains to be seen. But for now, suffice it to say that Tony is at the top of his game. I, on the other hand, am not. It wasn't that I went 4-for-10 that bothers me so much as the fact that I managed to miss a few guys I very nearly picked while the ones I actually picked suffered problems that left them deep in the field.
GLENN'S TEN (4-for-10... but at least I got the big one right!):
* Tony Stewart (winner) -- Winner! Sort of seems like a no-brainer, given Smoke's current streak. But there was some question as to whether he could make it to the finish line when the race went to a green-white-checker shootout and he was reporting problems with his alternator or somesuch. He overcame the heart-stopping moment and closed out a dominant performance that saw him lead all but about 10 of the 92 laps. No fence climbing this time. Perhaps even Tony regrets having started that fad.
* Jeff Gordon -- 14th, Can't buy a break. Had the only car capable of challenging Tony and suffered a tire problem less than 40 laps from the finish. Then he tried to dive for the pits when it looked like Greg Biffle was going to bring out the caution, which would have been a race-winning move except for the fact that the pits were closed when Jeff entered, so he had to restart at the tail end of the pack. Still, 14th is a monumental achievement that keeps him (barely) alive for a spot in the Chase. Four races and he needs to chop off about 70 points to get in. We'll see.
* Ryan Newman -- 30th, Two words: Bad brakes. Once that started to become an issue there was little hope of a good day.
* Kurt Busch -- 39th, A broken sway bar among other things forced the future driver of the Miller Lite Dodge to go behind the wall for a spell. Rotten afternoon. (snicker)
* Greg Biffle -- 38th, How often do you see two Roushers finish this far back? Biff got off track once and had other issues that kept him behind the wall for a bit.
* Robby Gordon -- 2nd, It may be the last time this year we talk about Robby Gordon in a positive light. He had no problems with the car (except for those caused by shortcutting the corners a couple of times) and was putting the pressure on Stewart for the win, but he just didn't have anything for him on the final restart.
* Boris Said -- 3rd, Best career finish. Always fun to watch. He was second on the next to last restart, but Stewart brake-checked him and hosed his chances of vying for the win.
* Ron Fellows -- 25th, I picked the wrong "ringer." Ron was briefly in the top 10, but this car just wasn't good enough to make the cut.
* Mark Martin -- 7th, Mark has another quiet but solid day.
* Casey Mears -- 23rd, I admit, it was wishful thinking.
REST OF THE TOP 10:
* Scott Pruett -- 4th, I feel rooked! I didn't know until race time that Pruett was subbing for Sterling Marlin, who was on funeral leave. I probably would have picked him over Casey Mears. No, I definitely would have picked him over Casey.
* Jimmie Johnson -- 5th, Got the good finish he needed after last week's debacle. I should have seen this coming.
* Rusty Wallace -- 6th, I know Rusty likes the road courses, but I just didn't feel good about this one. He apparently felt better.
* Brian Vickers -- 8th, Another guy I should have picked over Mears. Next year will be interesting to watch.
* Joe Nemechek -- 9th, Nice to see Joe in the show for a change.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 10th, Makes last week's crash at Indy all the more disappointing. We didn't hear much from him all race, but he was there when it counted.
OTHER NOTABLES:
* Elliott Sadler -- 12th, Close to the top 10 in points, and at a track that could have been disastrous to his season.
* Jamie McMurray -- 13th, Sneaks into the 9th spot for the Chase.
* Terry Labonte -- 37th, Not even the veteran can salvage a good day for the FedEx team.
* Michael Waltrip -- 41st, Had a decent run going until Kasey Kahne nudged him into the wall on the straightaway. Poor Mikey, he's had that happen a few times this season.
Next week: Let's see how Tony does at one of those big cookie-cutter ovals -- Michigan.
Week 22 -- Watkins Glen
I should really like this track. Forget the race, I just hink it's cool I've got a track with my name in it. So what if they spelled it wrong, a Glen's a Glenn in my book. This could only be a good omen, especially considering my rock-bottom performance in last week's predictions.
Watkins Glen is the second of two road courses the Cup drivers visit each season, and one of the big wild cards in the race to the Chase. Qualifying was rained out, so the field was set by owner points. Could be a big day for the likes of Jeff Gordon, who almost always runs well here. But I've got a feeling the day will belong to another hot road racer...
GLENN'S TEN:
* Tony Stewart (winner) -- I'm sure this will jinx it for him, but I've gotta go with the man who has won four of the past six races including the Sonoma road race, and who sits on the pole. Tony has won twice here, why not thrice? Look for smoke to be climbing the fences again Sunday.
REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):
* Jeff Gordon -- I keep writing off Jeff's season, but a big finish here would keep him within striking distance.
* Ryan Newman -- Ryan got a win in Saturday's Busch race and seems to do well at the road tracks. The seat time Saturday gives him a bit of an advantage.
* Kurt Busch -- Overlooked as a road course racer. A potential dark horse?
* Greg Biffle -- If he can keep the car out of trouble, figure him to be a threat.
* Robby Gordon -- Remember when Robby swept the road courses two years ago? That was before he started driving for himself. Make no mistake, Robby can win here, but that is
if nothing happens to the car. He's gonna have to come from 39th to do it. I am fearful of this pick.
* Boris Said -- Most of the road course ringers failed to make the field because of the rainout, so Boris will have to carry the standard for them. He is quite capable of making the show from 41st on the grid, but he isn't known for being patient and that may be his undoing.
* Ron Fellows -- Here's a ringer with a real shot at a win. He's finished second here before. But driving the Tide Ford will virtually assure him of not performing to his potential.
* Mark Martin -- Crusty veteran might just sneak in.
* Casey Mears -- Had one of his several top 10s here a year ago.
ALSO WATCHING: Rusty Wallace (Could have a good day, could have a crappy day)... Kevin Harvick (Will starting 13th be a bad luck curse?)... Kasey Kahne (Showing maturity)... Brian Vickers (I really wanted to pick him after he dominated the Busch race, but a little voice is telling me it's a bad idea.)
AND WHAT ABOUT... Jimmie Johnson? (Needs to bounce back in a big way after Indy. He isn't all that strong at the road courses, so perhaps a top 15.)
Stewart kisses the bricks
Well, they don't call Indy a flat track for nothing. There were a lot of flats in Sunday's Allstate 400 at the Brickyard -- which is a real crappy name for a race of this stature, BTW -- in the form of shredded Goodyear Eagles that led to 10 cautions and not a whole lot of excitement.
Speaking of flats, I was flat out of luck in my abysmal predictions that found me with my worst showing of the season on the heels of one of my best performances last time around with Pocono. But then I knew I was probably in trouble picking so many back-markers in the starting grid.
Tony Stewart made the most of his popular hometown victory, embellishing his new trademark fence-climbing gimmick with a backward victory lap that included a layover at the second turn grandstand for a little face time with his fans. And then there was that unique post-race interview on his back with a golf towel wrapped around his head. Let's hope this doesn't set the trend for other race winners, with longer and longer victory routines. It would be nice to leave some air time for the runners-up to chat about their day as well.
GLENN'S TEN (2-for-10... No comment.):
* Ryan Newman (winner) -- 34th, I am embarrassed to say that I missed what happened to Ryan to leave him two laps down at the checkers. The front end was taped up pretty good, so I'm assuming he hit something or something hit him. Needless to say, he was never a contender in this one.
* Greg Biffle -- 21st, Biff had a rocket early in the race until he suffered an ignition problem. He got that fixed, but then encountered more trouble later that left him at the middle of the pack.
* Rusty Wallace -- 25th, I missed the fact that Rusty crashed in practice and that was why he started so deep in the field. His backup car ran like one and he never made it too close to the front.
* Jimmie Johnson -- 38th, That's a big DNF for the former points leader. Jimmie was working to salvage a so-so day from his 42nd-place start, but he cut a right front tire on lap 143 and took a hard lick. He appeared very shaken in the pits afterward. Not sure if he was so emotional because of the crash or the fact that no driver wants to s*ck at Indy. What a forgettable weekend.
* Kurt Busch -- 18th, Kurt did just what we expected him to do, taking two tires to get track position. This looks like a decent day.
* Jeff Gordon -- 8th, This race was so Jeff. He lingered in the bottom half of the top 10 much of the race when he wasn't mired deeper in traffic. He used some off-sequence pit strategy to take four fresh tires and get his car right to gain a few spots in the waning laps, but he never led at a track where he has won four times before. He wants to win five, but his pattern here has been every two or three years. He'll be due again in 2007.
* Tony Stewart -- 1st, Why didn't I pick Tony? Looks like a pretty lame choice of Newman over Smoke now, I'd say. Still, Tony almost met my prediction of coming up short when he got passed by Kasey Kahne with less than 20 to go. I think this win was more one of raw determination on his part. He'd led the most laps and waited so long to win here that when he got in position to do so he wasn't about to be denied. That's four wins in the last six races for the new points leader.
* Jamie McMurray --17th, Didn't hear much from Jamie in this one. Not much incentive anymore now that he's locked up a deal with Viagra in a couple of seasons.
* Dale Jarrett -- 14th, Not much to write home about here, except that a decent finish keeps him in the top 10 in points.
* Kevin Harvick -- 19th, I knew Harvick would burn me here yet I took him anyway. He was one of the early pretenders with a car that looked decent, but there were other cars on the track that were a bit more decent.
REST OF THE TOP 10 (This is a long list. 8-/ )
* Kasey Kahne -- 2nd, The Second Place Kid comes up with another one. But perhaps it is fitting that the loss was to the man he beat to get his first win at Richmond three months ago. Kasey was in the thick of things all day. He just lost to a car that was better on the long run.
* Brian Vickers -- 3rd, I have to stop overlooking him, but it's hard when they run that hideous lime green paint scheme!
* Jeremy Mayfield -- 4th, Still in the top 10 in points. Please, not another Chase where we have to watch Mayfield. Should have figured though. This is a Dodge track.
* Matt Kenseth -- 5th, Where did he come from? Oh yeah, 20th. Matt's been stepping it up. Too bad he didn't start the season out this way.
* Casey Mears -- 6th, Defending qualifying record holder recovered from a qualifying crash and a 40th-place start to wind up here. He may be a Mears running at Indy, but he still ain't Rick.
* Mark Martin -- 7th, I said I'd probably regret not picking him and guess what? I do.
* Sterling Marlin -- 9th, Look at all these Dodges. Sheesh. And I picked all the
wrong Dodges.
* Kyle Busch -- 10th, Yet another day when the Hendrick B crew outshines the A teams.
OTHER NOTABLES:
* Kyle Petty -- 13th(!), A Petty car has a good day and no one cares.
* Jeff Green -- 15th, Two Petty cars have good days and still no one cares.
* Elliott Sadler -- 32nd, Talk about major disappointment. Elliott thought he had the best car of his career under him and was set on at least a top 5 before he suffered problems in the last few laps that dropped him quickly off the pace.
* Jason Leffler -- 33rd, It came about a month later than I predicted, but Gibbs has finally swallowed its pride and accepted what most of the Cup community learned four years ago: Leffler can't race. At least not well enough to be a contender, which is what doomed his future with the team. A fittingly forgettable final race in the #11 Fed-Ex Chevy.
* Ricky Rudd -- 41st, I could have (and did almost) picked Ricky for the top 10. He looked decent until he encountered carburetor problems. They replaced the problem part in the pits under caution, but he lost a lap in the process. He regained it, but later suffered a crash that took him out.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 43rd, Remember Chicagoland, where everyone was saying the #8 bunch were back? That they still had a decent shot of clawing their way back into the Chase? They aren't saying that after Sunday. Junior got dumped (inadvertently) by Mike Skinner and took out teammate Martin Truex Jr. in the process. When things are going rotten they just seem to keep going that way.
Next week... Get out yer Dramamine. It's back to the road course at Watkins Glen. Can Tony get number five? I guarantee he'll be somewhere in my picks.
Week 21 -- The Brickyard (or whatever it's called now)
It sure was nice to have a week off after a grueling schedule of weekly (or is that "weakly") predictions. I closed out on a high note at Pocono, going 7-for-10. Don't expect that performance this weekend. The Brickyard is one of those places that always seems like it should be a snap to pick, but seldom is.
You take the a long, demanding flat track where each of its four corners is separate from its nearest neighbor. Throw in a few native Indiana boys who really want to win at their "home" track very badly. Look to see who's won here before. Throw it all into a grab bag and pull out a few names and you'll stand as good a chance of coming up with the winners.
I won't resort to the grab bag method, but I've got a feeling this is gonna be tough.
GLENN'S TEN:
* Ryan Newman (winner) -- Do I really think Ryan's going to win this race, when he hasn't won in close to a year now? The short answer is: I don't really know. This qualifying field was such a topsy-turvy mess that most of the favorites will be coming from the back. Ryan is one of the few who starts toward the front, and he's one of those Indiana boys I was talking about, with something to prove. He's been driving more consistently lately, so why not?
REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):
* Greg Biffle -- Starting 31st? He won't be that bad in race trim.
* Rusty Wallace -- Had to qualify on owner points and starts 41st. Yuch! But my gut tells me he'll find his wat to the front. He's come close to winning here before and this is his last shot at it.
* Jimmie Johnson -- Starts 42nd because he didn't take a qualifying lap. What's with all these guys? Please, it can only get better from here.
* Kurt Busch -- Starts 37th. The defending champ didn't exactly light 'em up in qualifying, but if anybody can two-tire-stop his way into the lead it is the #97 bunch.
* Jeff Gordon -- Will starting up front prove to be the curse I think it will be? I hope not for Jeff's sake, because he's rolling off 7th and needs a good finish. First would be nice. On a good day I'd probably give it to him, but lately...
* Tony Stewart -- Nobody's been hotter than this man. Smoke gets pretty emotional about this track, and he's even more emotional the worse he finishes. I really would like to see Tony win this race, but something tells me he'll come up short yet again. Starts 22nd, so who knows.
* Jamie McMurray -- Right behind Stewart is this cat. He nearly won here a year ago. I know he's capable of running up front, but for how long?
* Dale Jarrett -- Starts 24th. He's won here before, so maybe if he just plays it cool he'll find his way toward the front.
* Kevin Harvick -- I worry about Happy. He won here two years back, but of all these picks I think he's most vulnerable.
ALSO WATCHING: Just too many good cars to fit on the list... Elliott Sadler (The curse of starting on the pole will get him)... Ricky Rudd (Almost bumped Harvick to get him in. He's won one here.)... Mark Martin (Starts 10th and I'll probably regret not taking him)... Dale Earnhardt Jr. (Still thinks he's got a chance at the Chase and just might work his way out of 27th by day's end.)
