gNA$hCAR Notes
California recap
My predictions were largely spot-on: The "Young Guns" looked good in this race, DEI had an awful day, and Hendrick cars dominated... er, actually hendrick had a tough day, except for Jimmie Johnson, but I'll get to that in a moment.
Overall, this race was an entertaining one, with lots of good action on the track. I don't know that we needed to hear the Governator give us his take on gNA$hCAR's economic impact on Kah-lee-for-nya during FOX's hourlong prerace event, but that's why i have a VCR with a remote that I used liberally to condense a 4-1/2 hour broadcast down to three hours. Thank you, SONY.
GLENN'S TEN (6-for-10 -- a decent day):
* Jimmie Johnson (winner) -- 2nd, Jimmie looked like he might have a mediocre day when he wasn't able to lead any laps. The car didn't look very strong. But in typical Hendrick fashion he made a late charge and nearly beat the winner to the checkers, falling short by a lap of the winning pass.
* Jeff Gordon -- 30th, *Ouch!* Jeff qualified a disappointing 28th but steadily rose through the field. He got as far forward as second, I believe, and looked good for at least a top 5 until the engine went south with about a dozen laps to go. He got black-flagged and failed to get what would have probably been a top 20.
* Kurt Busch -- 2nd, The Roush cars came through as I thought they might, placing four out of five among the top 10. Kurt got a lap down during an untimely caution in the middle of green-flag pit stops, then made up the deficit to lead before Greg Biffle got by him in the waning stages. Second straight 2nd place finish leaves him atop the points list.
* Rusty Wallace -- 10th, Didn't make a lot of noise, but he made the show. I'll take it.
* Ryan Newman -- 9th, Ryan had a Ryan-like afternoon, starting 9th, falling back a bit, starting to improve, then getting caught by bad luck -- this time in the form of tire trouble that caught him a lap down mid-race. It took him a couple of cautions to make up the lap, and he eventually wound up having a decent finish.
* Tony Stewart -- 17th, What happened to Tony? He had to move to the back after fixing a transmission problem, but he charged through the field in the early laps. I was sure he was going to be a factor, but he never ran in the top 10 and hovered between 15th and 20th all afternoon. Disappointing.
* Elliott Sadler -- 8th, This looked nothing like his September '04 victory. He struggled all race and only moved into the top 10 with a couple of two-tire pit stops in the late going.
* Joe Nemechek -- 39th, Joe looked like he would be the surprise of the day. He qualified 4th and ran up front all race until his Hendrick-built engine tanked while he was leading.
* Mark Martin -- 7th, Right about where I would have pegged him. All the Roush cars looked good, but Mark's was just average.
* Matt Kenseth -- 26th, Suffered a tire problem and went a lap down after being near the front all day.
REST OF THE TOP 10:
* Greg Biffle -- 1st, I almost picked him over Sadler. Looks like I should have. Started 5th and bolted to the lead on lap 4. Fell a lap down along with Bush and Newman but recovered. Took a gamble on two tires on the final pit stop to hold track position. It almost bit him, except that Kurt Bush kept Johnson at bay long enough to preserve the win. Biffle's second win in last three points races.
* Jamie McMurray -- 4th, The only driver to finish in the top 10 who wasn't in my picks or on my "also watching" list. He didn't have a car capable of catching the winners, however.
* Carl Edwards -- 5th, Another guy I almost picked. He led a bundle of laps and ran near the front all day. This kid's gonna win one this year. Currently in the top 5 in points.
* Kevin Harvick -- 6th, The Kevin-who-knows-how-to-race Harvick showed up this week and was among the many leaders. He took four tires on the last pit stop and just couldn't get back up to the front.
OTHER NOTABLES:
* Dale Jarrett -- 11th, Decent finish after Daytona disappointment.
* Ken Schrader -- 14th, A name you rarely see in the teens.
* Sterling Marlin -- 15th, Don't look now, but he's among the top 10 in points.
* Brian Vickers -- 21st, Yes, but he started second...
* Kyle Busch -- 23rd, Yes, but he started on the pole, becoming the youngest driver ever to do so.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 32nd, Anyone count how many pit stops Little E made for blown tires, body damage and penalties? Fontana has not been kind to the Bud boys.
* Michael Waltrip -- 38th, DEI had a bad day here, as usual. Blown engine makes two in a row to start the season. Not a good omen.
* Jason Leffler -- 37th, I'll make a prediction now that Ward Burton will be driving this car before we get to Daytona in July. Jason was awful when he ran at this level four years ago, and so far he hasn't given me much reason to think he's vastly improved after stints in the Busch and truck series.
Next week... Viva la Mexico! Actually, the Cup drivers get a bye week while the Buschwackers head to Mexico City for the first modern-era intercontinental gNA$hCAR race. I'll be back in two weeks to predict the running order at Las Vegas.
Week 2 -- California
I said last week that it's too early to be visiting Fontana, California. This race used to be in April, but the gNA$hCAR's racing wizards thought it would generate more excitement after Daytona than the previous Week 2 visits to Rockingham. I miss The Rock. It was two years ago this week that Dale Jarrett won his last points race there, and a year ago that Kasey Kahne got his first of five second-place finishes to begin a successful Rookie of the Year campaign. Will California in February be as exciting as Rockingham in February used to be? Like it or not, the age of the 1-1/2 to 2-mile cookie-cutter ovals is here to stay.
I have to make this week's picks before qualifying, but at least there are a few things you can count on at California: The Hendrick cars are awesome; the DEI cars stink; and "Young Guns" like Ryan Newman, Kurt Busch and their peers tend to do well. So on that note I give you...
GLENN'S TEN:
* Jimmie Johnson (winner) -- Jimmie didn't win last week, so he's already overdue. He's won here before and typically has a car capable of dominating a race of this type. I look for him to be out front early and stay there much of the race.
THE REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):
* Jeff Gordon -- Fresh off his Daytona win and always hot at Fontana. Bad news for the rest of the league. If Johnson doesn't win, Gordon will.
* Kurt Busch -- I like Kurt's chances. It's close enough to Vegas that this is almost a hometown crowd for him. He'll come out and shine for the fans.
* Rusty Wallace -- Got career victory 54 at this track in 2001. He's sitting at 55 wins coming into this race. I still think he's got something for Fontana and will show it as he continues his farewell tour.
* Ryan Newman -- Has always run well here. Hasn't always finished well. He needs to regroup after 20th-place showing at Daytona.
* Tony Stewart -- Another guy who could shine. Might lead a lot if he starts near the front.
* Elliott Sadler -- Won here in September.
* Joe Nemechek -- Can he keep the car in one piece long enough to get to the finish?
* Mark Martin -- Daytona proved he's still got it. He'll be in the top 10 somewhere.
* Matt Kenseth -- Roush teams could quietly have a great day.
ALSO WATCHING... Greg Biffle (Rousher), Carl Edwards (Still have a feeling about his season), Kevin Harvick (Close as he gets to his hometown of Bakersfield. Might just put it all together for a day.)
24/70
Well that was sure fun! Nothing like tuning in for the first race of the season and getting to see your favorite driver celebrating in Victory Lane. That was the payoff for sitting through four hours of FOX hype and having to watch Tony Stewart at the head of the pack for more than half of the afternoon. In all fairness I must say I feel sorry for Tony Stewart losing it the way he did, if only because it caused his frustration to boil over and led to him doing something stupid after the checkered flag. But more on that in a moment. First, my recap of my predictions.
GLENN'S TEN (5-for-10):
* Tony Stewart (winner) -- 7th, I thought this was Tony's year until he got snookered on the last restart. He led 109 laps and seemed to be able to drive the car where he wanted to regardless of who was around him. What he lacked was a teammate to help him when the heat got turned up near the end. Bobby Labonte's engine got toasted early in the race, and Jason Leffler was victimized by a wreck not of his making. That left the Hendrick and Roush drivers to gang up on him, which they did. Jimmie Johnson was Tony's last straw, blocking his way to a top 5 while Tony had to settle for 7th. Tony took out his frustrations after the flag by beating on Jimmie's car, which prompted harsh words from Jimmie's crew chief. Tony justified it by saying Jimmie was beating on him so he was just giving as good as he got. Maybe, but Jimmie did his beating and banging BEFORE the flag in the course of the race. Tony's beating was simple childish retaliation. This is the kind of thing that earns him a bad rap. Hopefully this is the last we'll see of it this season.
* Jimmie Johnson -- 5th, The aforementioned dust-up with Stewart aside, Johnson never had as strong a car as his victorious teammate. He didn't improve his chances with the pass-through penalty for speeding on pit road that kept him out of the draft for a chunk of the second half of the race.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 3rd, Dale's car looked like junk most of the day, hovering around 25th. Naturally, it got better just in time for the final laps. He drafted his way to the lead and looked destined to repeat as champ. That was before a debris caution came out just as Gordon completed his pass for the lead, shades of last April at Talladega.
* Michael Waltrip -- 37th, Doh! He thought he had the car to win -- and just might have -- until the engine blew on lap 161. I think this was the main reason why Junior didn't hang on to the lead near the end -- no drafting partner.
* Kurt Busch -- 2nd, Kurt overcame a pass-through penalty to contend for the win. He sliced and diced his way past Tony Stewart and Dale Jr., but he never could catch Gordon.
* Jeff Gordon -- 1st, Jeff ran up front all day despite rarely leading. That's a bad sign if you're the competition. He didn't get a lot of drafting help while trying to make the pass for the win, but he had Johnson and Scott Riggs in position at just the right moment -- before the final caution. Jeff's third Daytona 500 win is sweet. In case you're counting, his 70th career win leaves him just six shy of the late, great Dale Earnhardt Sr.
* Carl Edwards -- 12th, I thought he'd squeaked through with a top 10, but he got shuffled back after the final caution. He got roughed up on the next to last restart when someone checked up and several cars plowed into each other. He had to pit for repairs that probably hurt his final showing.
* Greg Biffle -- 25th, Got caught up in a wreck, but he wasn't much of a factor before then. He had worked his way into the top 10 from his 23rd starting spot.
* Scott Wimmer -- 33rd, He looked strong until the big pileup that saw him make every highlight reel with his end-over-end crash.
* Jeff Burton -- 29th, Sustained crash damage, but had been a leader before that. He'll get it together this season. I think.
THE REST OF THE TOP 10:
* Scott Riggs -- 4th, Wouldn't have picked him in a million years. He deserved to be here. Never led, but the car was in the top five much of the day.
* Mark Martin -- 6th, Final Daytona 500 race of his career and he performs above (my) expectations with a battered race car, speedily repaired after Thursday's tangle with Kevin Harvick.
* Sterling Marlin, 8th -- I'm kicking myself for doubting his ability to make the cut at Daytona. He got here because of attrition; the car was mostly junk.
* Kevin Lepage -- 9th, Another beneficiary of attrition. He backed up his strong qualifying race by making the show in the green-white-checkered scramble.
* Rusty Wallace -- 10th, Not the win he wanted, but a respectable finish for a veteran in his final 500.
OTHER NOTABLES:
* Elliott Sadler -- 11th, Not sure how he got here, because the car looked mediocre all day.
* Dale Jarrett -- 15th, Never conquered handling problems. Sank like a stone after starting from the pole.
* Ryan Newman -- 20th, I told you something would happen. He brushed the wall, then got some damage on the next to last restart that forced him in to the pits.
* Kasey Kahne -- 22nd, Suffered some crash damage.
* Kevin harvick -- 28th, Backup car now looks a lot like the primary car did on Thursday, except this one wasn't his fault.
* Matt Kenseth -- 42nd, Thought he had his best Daytona car ever. It wasn't.
* Bobby Labonte -- 43rd, Has the dubious distinction of starting the season in last place. He might take comfort in knowing that the last three drivers to suffer this fate -- Tony Stewart (2002), Ryan Newman (2003) and Mark Martin (2004) -- all went on to finish the season no worse than 6th. Tony of course won it all in '02. Shades of things to come???
Next week... It's too early to be in California, but that's where we're heading.
Week 1 -- Daytona
This is it, fellow fans -- the kickoff of the 2005 racing season. Time once again to predict who will take the checkered flag at the Great American Race. Last year's Daytona 500 was a ho-hum affair. Not just because Dale Earnhardt Jr. won, but because it frankly was a dull race for about the first 180 laps. Why is it that the biggest events in the sports world are mostly dull affairs? Daytona, the Stupor Bore, the Worried Series... Oh yeah, they all have their moments, but you can get as much out of them by simply watching the highlights on the 11 o'clock news, or hitting the fast-forward button on your VCR remote. (That's what I did two weeks ago when New England and Philly met in the NawFuL finals and I saved two hours of viewing time.)
Don't get me wrong, I'll watch every moment of Daytona on Sunday, but I'll probably be kicking myself after the wrong guy wins it all. And who will that guy be? Well, that's why we have Glenn's Ten. You'll look back on this list tomorrow night and either tell me I was a genius or wonder what I was drinking when I compiled it. OK, I'll shut up now and get to the race...
GLENN'S TEN:
* Tony Stewart (winner) -- Tony is due for a win in this race, and why not this year? He won his qualifying race Thursday and the Busch race Saturday. He finished second to Dale Jr. last year. He knows how to draft and is just aggressive enough (are you listening Kevin Harvick?) to position himself for the victory without wrecking half the field in the process. When Tony starts hot he usually stays that way, and has the making of being "his season."
THE REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):
* Jimmie Johnson -- He's looking like Jeff Gordon did at this stage in his career. He runs well everywhere and you always have to think he'll be a contender for the victory. I worry about the shape of his engine after Thursday's wild ride through the infield.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- He won last year. The nature of this race is that he could run strong here every year and never win another one. Don't be fooled by his poor qualifying lap. All the DEI guys qualified low in the field, but look where they start on Sunday... 3rd, 5th, 10th.
* Michael Waltrip -- Michael has a pattern here. When FOX covers the race, Mikey wins. By that note he should win this year, too. But he won't. He'll still be a factor at the finish.
* Kurt Busch -- The defending series champ crossed the line third last year. Unfortunately, he was a lap behind the winners. Kurt is maturing as a driver and won't make the same stupid mistakes this year that cost him a shot at victory in 2004.
* Jeff Gordon -- He'll be somewhere in the top 10, but if it comes down to him or Jimmie, he'll sacrifice position to get his guy across the line in first.
* Carl Edwards -- Keep your eye on the #99 this year. Expect good things. The good things will start today with a top 10.
* Greg Biffle -- I'm starting to think that Biffle is the next Mr. Daytona. He has won a pole at this track and a summer race. Could this be the year he wins the big one?
* Scott Wimmer -- Say what? The #22 has a history of success here. Ward Burton won it all in 2002; Wimmer was in the top 5 last year. He'll find a way to get there.
* Jeff Burton -- The #31 also finds a way into the top 10 consistently at Daytona. Burton's career was revived when he went over to Childress late last season. Now comes the time to get serious about returning to competitive form.
I COULDN'T FIND ROOM FOR... Dale Jarrett (on the pole, but struggled in practices), Ryan Newman (new car, looks good, but something's gonna happen...), Matt Kenseth (maybe top 15), Sterling Marlin (2-time winner past his prime), Bobby Labonte (might help Stewart to victory), Kevin Harvick (liked him better before his primary car became scrap metal), Mark Martin (finished 43rd here last year, and already running into bad luck), Rusty Wallace (hasn't won yet, and will finish his career with the perfect record intact), Joe Nemechek (will the backup car perform? It might...) or Kasey Kahne (needs another year or two to be a real factor).
SENTIMENTAL FAVORITES: Kevin Lepage, Mike Skinner.
Kevin Harvick's a bonehead
Sorry, but I had to say it. I watched the Gatorade Duel on Thursday and saw the big pile-up in the second race that transpired after Harvick spun Jimmie Johnson. There was no excuse for it other than that Harvick was being too aggressive where he shouldn't have been -- in the turn. Bump drafting on a turn at 190 mph is a recipe for disaster. Johnson was lucky that he didn't hit anything or anyone, but I question what that spin might have done to his engine. Guys like Mark Martin and Rusty Wallace weren't as lucky. They'll have to start in the back on Sunday, where if you believe what Martin says it's impossible to win. (I personally don't believe that -- I win all the time from a 43rd starting spot in NASCAR Thunder on my Nintendo GameCube!)
Joe Nemechek was so ticked at Harvick that he threw a water bottle at him when they left the infield care center. Of course, they were chatting like old buddies during Busch qualifying on Friday, so maybe Nemechek doesn't really plan to make good on his threat to "beat Harvick up" as he told an AP photogragher. Of course, winning the pole for the Busch race might have changed his attitude slightly.
Harvick's one of those guys who has problems making friends on the track. I counted at least six drivers Thursday who probably won't be feeling too friendly with him on Sunday.
2005 season predictions
I know these are the most anticipated predictions of the year (yeah, right), so I'll get right to them.
NEXTEL Cup Top 10, in order of finish:
1) Jimmie Johnson -- The guy who should have won last year won't be the bridesmaid for a third year in a row. He's already off to a good start, winning the Bud Shootout last Saturday night.
2) Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- Here's a man on a mission. He wants to win. The media want him to win. The fans want him to win. He's shaken up his crew in the offseason. It will either be a boom year or a bust. Little E won't let it be a bust.
3) Jeff Gordon -- Mr. Consistency would have been last year's champ under the old points system, but he was good enough that he could have won under the new format as well, with a little better luck. A savvy racer, he'll find a way to be in the race for the big money when it counts.
4) Tony Stewart -- Tony had an up-and-down sort of year last season. He needs to get off the emotional roller coaster and focus on his driving. When he's on his game he is a threat to win it all. He needs to get off to a fast start in 2005 to have a realistic shot.
5) Matt Kenseth -- Don't count the 2003 champ out. Ever. Matt might not make many visits to Victory Lane, but he is often in the top 10, which is where you want to be to make the Chase.
6) Jamie McMurray -- One of the biggest disappointments of 2004 was this young man not making the cut. He poured it on the final few races to lock up the 11th spot. Maybe that was the kick start he needed to live up to his potential this year.
7) Kasey Kahne -- Last season's top rookie is still looking for that first win. He'll finally get at least one. Experience will make the difference this year.
8) Ryan Newman -- I've downgraded my expectations for the Rocket Man. Last year should have been his breakout season, but he nearly missed the Chase with inconsistent performance midseason. The checkers-or-wreckers approach doesn't work. Ryan needs to stop worrying about leading every lap and just finishing the darn thing. New model Dodges could help or hurt his chances.
9) Dale Jarrett -- DJ spent most of last season rebuilding after a disastrous 2003. He came close to making the cut for the Chase. He's on the pole for Daytona, which by itself isn't an indicator of success over 36 races, but it is a good sign for this once-proud championship team.
10) Kurt Busch -- Last year wasn't entirely a fluke. Kurt was good enough to make the Chase with consistent performance early in the season, even if he was only 7th when the Chase began. Look for him to get in again this year, but the defending champ's curse will leave him
with a mediocre finish.
OTHER CANDIDATES WHO DIDN'T MAKE MY LIST:
Carl Edwards -- You know that someone new will sneak into the top 10. Why not Mr. Edwards, who distinguished himself last season when he stepped into the #99. With Roush behind him there is a good chance he'll make the cut in his first full season. We wanna see some backflips!
Elliott Sadler -- He played his way into the Chase by driving conservatively over the final few races leading up to Richmond. Other teams will step up their game this year, and conservative won't get it
done.
Greg Biffle -- Biffle turned it up in the final weeks of last season. He comes into 2005 with high expectations. If he can string together some good finishes in the first couple of months he might be a factor.
Mark Martin -- Would be a great way to end a career by winning the Cup. Squeaked into the Chase at Richmond last season. Won't get a shot this year.
Bobby Labonte -- Has the #18 crew smoothed over its problems from last season? Labonte showed signs he was coming around late last year, but the competition is stepping up. Joe Gibbs stable still up in the air, and now adding a third team.
Kevin Harvick -- Still driving for Richard Childress, but maybe not in 2006. Rumor has him heading to Penske to replace Rusty Wallace. Such distractions aren't good for a championship run.
Joe Nemechek -- A dark horse? Joe keeps getting better and better. But I doubt he'll be consistent enough to make the cut.
Casey Mears -- He proved last season that he can drive. But he's still driving for Chip Gnassi, who been able to get his stable of Sterling Marlin, Jamie McMurray or Mears to the next level in the past three years. I think McMurray has the best shot.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:
Kyle Busch should be a lock for this, but then I said that about Brian Vickers last year and look what happened. Travis Kvapil and Eric McClure are only other ROTY contenders. Carl Edwards and Bobby Hamilton Jr. aren't eligible because they ran more than six races last season.
Let the games begin!
It is a great and glorious day. The 2005 gNA$hCAR season gets underway today with the running of the Budweiser Shootout. While this isn't a points race, it is a chance to see our favorite drivers in action for the first time in nearly three months.
I won't hazard a guess as to the finishing order of the top 10 this time, but I'll put my money on Jeff Gordon to win the shootout. Jeff is a two-time winner of this event, and the Hendrick cars are the only ones who can hold a candle to DEI at Daytona. Dale Jarrett won this race last year and starts on the pole today, but as he said, a lot of being able to win at Daytona depends on luck and how the draft shakes out. Gordon is skillful enough that when it comes down to the final few laps he'll be in position to make the pass for the lead.
I'll be back before next Sunday to make my predictions for the 2005 season. Yeah!
