gNA$hCAR Notes
Preseason predictions revisited
As promised, it's time to turn back the clock over 9-1/2 months to see how my predictions fared. Then I'm bailing on gNA$hCAR for a few months (until Daytona) to concentrate on my other sports obsession -- football.
Let's count 'em down from my selections for worst to first (Numbers in parentheses indicate actual finish):
10 -- Jamie McMurray (11th)
What I said: "Second season for this kid and a great team to back him up. Experience puts him in the show at the end of the year."
What he did: Jamie missed the Chase by just a handful of points at Richmond in September. He was a hot commodity in the final 10 races, finishing more than 300 points ahead of his nearest competitor for the 11th spot. He easily could have finished 6th or 7th overall had he made the Chase.
9 -- Matt Kenseth (8th)
What I said "History suggests that defending champs often suffer a letdown the following season. Kenseth is a model of consistency, but in the New NASCAR you've gotta win. And the law of averages (bad luck) ought to catch up with him soon."
What he did: Kenseth made the Chase and then swooned, notching poor finishes in three of the final 10 races. At least he doubled last season's win total (2 victories). He'll be back in 2005.
8 -- Bobby Labonte (12th)
What I said: "He started hot last year and faded toward season's end. Lack of Joe Gibbs in the front office will affect his teams. Bobby should be a factor in the Chase."
What he did: One of the major disappointments of 2004 was the #18 team's performance in the clutch. With the firing of crew chief Michael "Fatback" McSwain, Labonte faded from a comfortable sixth place in the standings to missing the Chase on the final race of the "regular season" at Richmond. It took until the last three races for him to get the ship righted. No poles, no victories and lots of bad luck... it's hard to believe that things won't be better next year.
7 -- Kurt Busch (1st)
What I said: "Just missed the top 10 on the final race of the '03 season. He's a good driver, and he should settle down after last season's antics with Jimmy Spencer."
What he did: We'll call Kurt champion for now, because that's what gNA$hCAR is calling him under its new format. But let's face it -- Kurt would have been an also-ran at best after falling behind the leaders by over 300 points heading into the Chase. He won the title because of his consistency and good luck in the final 10 races, not the least of which included avoiding the pit wall when he lost his wheel at Homestead in the final race. Now he can slip back to mediocrity for 2005.
6 -- Dale Earnhardt Jr. (5th)
What I said: "Dale will be many folks' pick to win it all. Maybe he can. He showed great improvement last year. But I'll believe he's a championship contender when I see him finally win one. I think all the commercial endorsements have to eventually take their toll on this up-and-coming star."
What he did: Dale proved that he can contend for a championship, but he shot himself in the foot enough times to hurt his bid. He lost 25 points for intentionally bringing out a caution at Bristol, and another 25 for swearing on camera during a Victory Lane interview. Those lost points would have put him up to 4th, so they were costly in many ways. Still, Dale is maturing into a classy and formidable driver. I may have to pencil him in for a title next season.
5 -- Jeff Gordon (3rd)
What I said: "I'd like to place him higher, and knowing his past I could easily see him winning it all with the new format. But this isn't the mid-'90s anymore, and Jeff's odds of winning number five get longer as the competition steps it up. I see him being more focused on bringing up guys like Johnson and Vickers than on winning for himself. Still, look for him to win his traditional three or four races in '04."
What he did: Jeff won five races and looked mighty during the mid-season, but he faded to mediocrity (for him) in the final 10 races. He missed out on wins at tracks he's dominated in the past such as Martinsville and Darlington, and he had the abysmal finish at Atlanta that probably was his undoing for a fifth title. He missed out on a win at Phoenix that he probably didn't deserve anyway, but it was typical of his late season that saw him rope-a-dope his way to finishing third. One of two drivers not to have any major disasters, but he didn't shine when he could and should have.
4 -- Tony Stewart (6th)
What I said: "No contract worries this year, but like Labonte he will be affected by the front office shakeup. I think Tony will have an "up" season after last year's disappointment."
What he did: I don't think you would call '04 an "up season" for the #20. Yes, he finished 6th, but he did so more by default on the part of the drivers who finished behind him in the Chase. If not because of Gibbs' football distraction, there has to be some explanation for Tony's antics early in the year that had some wondering if he would still be driving the car by year's end. Scuffles with other drivers on and off the track drew unneeded attention to Tony. He seemed to go soft in the Chase, driving less aggressively, and it showed. Not a memorable year for the Gibbs stable.
3 -- Kevin Harvick (14th)
What I said: "Another guy who could easily win it all, but he needs to can some of the attitude and focus on racing. I don't think last season was a fluke."
What he did: Major disappointment number two of the year has to be Harvick's inability to do much of anything. No poles, no wins and no Chase. After the big race at Daytona it was all pretty much downhill. Can we blame it all on Kevin or on Richard Childress? Too much turmoil in the RCR shops. Expect major shakeups with Robby Gordon leaving and Jeff Burton going to the #31. Kevin will be more focused next year. He'd better be.
2 -- Jimmie Johnson (2nd)
What I said: "Would have won it all under the new format if it had been in place last year. He got burned by several late-race mishaps last year. But he's the real deal, and with Hendrick behind him this could be the year. He might even do a Ryan Newman-like tour of Victory Lane in '04, given the right circumstances."
What he did: Boy, did I nail this prediction! His eight wins were exactly what Ryan did last season, leading all drivers. Major difference was that he got most of them in the Chase, when he really had to win to make up for the huge hole he dug after a series of DNF's. To come back from 236 points down to finish 8 points behind Busch for the championship tells me who really should have been the champ this year.
1 -- Ryan Newman (7th)
What I said: "I'm going out on a limb here, I know. Ryan would have been a lock for the title last year if not for his early season bad luck/inconsistency. The eight wins aside, he showed remarkable poise for a second-year driver, and his team still has a tremendous advantage with all the engineering degrees present. With Penske's switch to Dodge a year behind them, this should be the year they can focus on the bigger picture, and will."
What he did: Ugh! Major disappointment number three. Ryan's inconsistency showed painfully in the final 10 races. He grabbed four poles in a row but finished well in only one of those races. Blown engines, crashes, etc., doomed him. Ryan doesn't play well with Rusty Wallace, which hurt him at times he needed his teammate to work with him (such as Martinsville). Maybe Ryan is a hallmark of consistency in that his performance has been inconsistent three seasons in a row now. Could be a great champ if he and Penske can get it together during the offseason.
OTHER TOP 10 DRIVERS:
* Mark Martin (4th) -- Good to see Mark return strong for his penultimate season. He almost didn't make the Chase, but once he was in it he showed the old tenacity that made him a contender for much of the past decade.
* Elliott Sadler (9th) -- Was happy just to be there, and proved it with a quick fade in the Chase. Still, this was a career year for Sadler who figures to be a factor in the future.
* Jeremy Mayfield (10th) -- One of my huge gripes about the Chase format is that a guy like Mayfield plays his way into the field with a hot streak to ace out someone more deserving like McMurray and then stinks up the joint in the final 10 races. I think we say the real Mayfield after Richmond. He had a bad race at Dover and then quit, week after week.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:
My pick: Brian Vickers (25th) -- Brian was a huge disappointment, but I truly believe it had more to do with his team than with him. Inexperience probably was a factor with some of the poor finishes, but bad pit stops and mechanical issues shot him in the foot more than they should have. Hendrick obviously recognized that, because the orgnaization just announced a major shakeup involving the #25 and #5, the two underperformers in the house.
Winner: Kasey Kahne (13th) -- I wouldn't have picked Kahne to go anywhere, but that's why Ray Evernham is a successful owner and former crew chief and I'm not. Kasey got four of his five second-place finishes early in the year. Figure that he'll get that first win next year. He smoked the field in an otherwise anemic rookie class.
We Agree On Something
Busch didn't deserve the title, and under the old system would have finished a distant third. Jeff Gordon or Jimmy Johnson would have been much more deserving (and this is coming from a Tony Stewart fan).
They'd better tweak the system for next year.
Green-white-checkered championship -- and I'm 'Busched'
Can I bring out the boo-birds now that the inaugural Nextel Cup season is history? This race lived up to its billing as a thrilling conclusion to the Championship Chase, even though I think the wrong guy got to take home the trophy. Just goes to show that, much like American politics, sometimes the guy who wins the popular vote doesn't win the election. A record 13 cautions in this race helped slow the action, but keeping things close made for an exciting finish, and isn't that all we can ask for as gNA$hCAR fans? NO! I wanted to see Jeff Gordon win his fifth title, but that's just me...
GLENN'S TEN: (4-for-10)
* Kasey Kahne (winner) -- 38th,
Spllllt! See what happens when I place my faith in Evernham teams? Kasey marched backward quickly, then ran over some debris dropped by his teammate's car. His day finally ended when he wrecked off Turn 4 all by his lonesome. He may be rookie of the year, but he didn't go out with the "bang" he'd hoped.
* Jimmie Johnson -- 2nd, Came up through the field and had to dodge a couple of wrecks in the process. He had perhaps the best car at the end, but the cautions hurt his championship hopes, which fell 8 points short of Kurt Busch.
* Jeff Gordon -- 3rd, Why is Jeff not now celebrating his fifth title? Simply put: bonus points. How many of the final 10 races did Gordon not lead a lap? Enough, and this one hurt the most. He had an OK car, if not good enough for the win then certainly good enough to lead at some point, but he never did. Busch got his five bonus points early and that figured heavily in the finish. I don't think Gordon would have stood in the way of Jimmie Johnson at the end if it meant the difference between one Hendrick driver taking home the title. As it was, Gordon got roughed up by Joe Nemechek on the next to last restart, which probably prevented him from a realistic shot at taking the lead.
* Ryan Newman -- 30th, What kind of a year was it for Ryan? This finish typifies the bad luck -- leading the race with a handful of laps to go when he blows a tire. If Ryan is to win a title he'll have to iron out his penchant for checkers-or-wreckers finishes.
* Bobby Labonte -- 12th, Led a few laps and visited the top 10 a couple of times, but couldn't remain there when the heat was on in the final few laps.
* Kurt Busch -- 5th, Did what he needed to do to hang onto the title. It was clear the racing gods were smiling on him when he lost his right front wheel coming to pit road and avoided hitting the pit wall by less than a foot. All the cautions allowed him to claw his way forward. If not for that, he might not have gooten the finish he had to to hold off Johnson. Dumb luck, but Roush will take it and the $5.2 million check. Thankyaverymuch.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 23rd, No title for Little E this year, but look out next season. The Bud crew served notice that Dale will be a force to reckon with soon. A mediocre day today, with handling problems and a little front-end damage hampering his performance.
* Jamie McMurray -- 7th, Didn't make a lot of noise getting here, but that's been his style. He nails down 11th overall for the season, which is good for an extra million. Look out next season!
* Carl Edwards -- 14th, He was up and down and up again. Good finish despite missing the show. Another guy I'll have to consider carefully for next year's predictions.
* Jeremy Mayfield -- 35th, Never pick a guy who's given up. Mayfield quit after Richmond, and his car quit early in this race. He finished 60 laps down.
THE REST OF THE TOP 10:
* Greg Biffle -- 1st, There's a team in every sport you have problems picking, and in this sport Biffle's mine. Naturally, I didn't pick him this week and he won. He had the dominant car, unfortunately, because his presence prevented Johnson or Gordon from leading when they had to.
* Tony Stewart -- 4th, Wish I'd picked Tony instead of Mayfield. He had a strong car, which is the only reason he got back up front after having to serve a stop-and-go penalty for weaving too long under caution. Bizarre penalty, but kinda sums up Tony's year.
* Brendan Gaughan -- 6th, Someone must have given him pep pills for the final race. Why couldn't he do this the rest of the year? Oh yeah, it's a Penske thing. I don't see Brendan in this car by the middle of next season.
* Rusty Wallace -- 8th, Rusty got to lead a few laps. The farewell tour officially starts now.
* Ricky Rudd -- 9th, If it were anyone else I'd say look for him to contend again in 2005. But this is an aged Ricky Rudd with the Wood Brothers. Not even Fatback can overcome those handicaps.
* Kevin Harvick -- 10th, The punctuation mark on a season of underachievement by RCR drivers.
OTHER NOTABLES:
* Mark Martin -- 11th, Looked like he had a strategy to win before tire problems doomed him to a mid-pack finish. An otherwise strong year that came up short of a championship. Will Mark get another shot next year, his last? I sort of hope so, but I think we've seen the last hurrah for this driver's winning ways.
* Matt Kenseth -- 19th, A snoozer of a day for last year's champion. He seems to have difficulties at Homestead.
* Dale Jarrett -- 24th, Was running third but ran out of gas before the finish. Next year...
* Elliott Sadler -- 34th, Crashed out. Not a good finish to a disappointing Chase.
Next week... Breathing a heavy sigh of relief that the season is over. I'll review my preseason predictions, but that's it for 2004. Counting the days to Daytona 2005.
Week 36 -- Homestead
We've reached the final week of the season, and boy am I glad. Frankly, keeping up these logs every week for the past nine months has been a lot of fun, but it gets to be a time drain, and I'm ready to move on to other projects. But not before we share the final race in the championship Chase.
This is going to be interesting. With Kurt Busch winning the pole and Jimmie Johnson having to take a provisional, the stage is set for a dramatic run to the checkers. There are also some guys desperate for first wins, or to make their case for rides in 2005. Plus we have some unfamiliar faces in the mix with Shane Hmiel, Martin Truex Jr., and Boris Said. This will be fun...
Glenn's (final) Ten:
* Kasey Kahne (winner) -- Book 'em, Dano. I've been waiting to make this prediction all year. Kasey has run well enough to be the runner-up five times this season, and he has been cheated out of victories at least two others. But this is the same track where he won his lone Busch race last season, and he won the truck race there Friday evening. He is also driving the #9 that Bill Elliott dominated in last year before blowing a tire on the final lap. Those notes should help get him to Victory Lane on Sunday. These guys want to end the season with a win, so motivation always helps.
The rest of the top 10 (in no particular order):
* Jimmie Johnson -- Jimmie parked the car after his abysmal qualifying run Friday. This makes me think he probably had it set for race conditions and was (basically) happy with how it handled. He'll have a big hole to dig out of, but look for him to be close to the front at the finish line along with...
* Jeff Gordon -- Jeff also setup his car in race trim and qualified fifth. Bad news for Kurt Busch. Jeff has been quietly rope-a-doping his way to the championship. He's just 21 points back. Don't count him out for finally getting a win here.
* Ryan Newman -- Got taken out in an early crash here last year. He's had enough DNFs for 2004.
* Bobby Labonte -- Last year's surprise winner led only the last lap. After back-to-back top 10s in the past two weeks, I like him for a good run here.
* Kurt Busch -- I have this vision of the championship celebration, and it doesn't involve Kurt. Rousch drivers had a miserable time here last year -- Busch got taken out in the crash that claimed Newman, Matt Kenseth toasted an engine and finished dead last. Greg Biffle (35th), Mark Martin (33rd). Only Jeff Burton (14th) had a decent finish. This doesn't bode well for another Roush Cup win. Still, I think Kurt will pull out the stops and finish in the top 10, but he'll juuuuuust miss the title.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- Don't know why he didn't do better here last year. I think he'll go out with a respectable finish if not the title.
* Jamie McMurray -- Stepping up his game in preparation for 2005.
* Carl Edwards -- He's a Rousher, but he's proving himself worthy. Ought to be interesting to watch next season.
* Jeremy Mayfield -- If Kasey can win, Jeremy can sneak into the top 10 to save face in his forgettable championship bid.
Championship prediction: Johnson (1st), Gordon (2nd), Busch (3rd), Dale Jr. (4th), Mark Martin (5th after toasting an engine).
Thirty-five down, one to go
Now we have a better sense of what has to happen next week for Jeff Gordon to clinch his fifth championship, and I'll give you a hint: It isn't what he did this week. Gordon has every right to be disgusted with his third-place finish on Sunday, because he should have been a shoo-in for Victory Lane. Unfortunately, the crew dropped the car on an air hose during the last pit stop, dropping Super-G from the lead to seventh place on the restart. He made up most of it, but that gaffe unquestionably spoiled an otherwise great day.
This race pretty much decided who we'll be watching next weekend at Homestead-Miami, so let's get to the results...
GLENN'S TEN (6-of-10, with all of the top six!)
* Jeff Gordon (winner) -- 3rd, Jeff could have emerged with the points lead had he nailed the win. Instead, he dropped a spot to third, even as he closed to within 21 points of Kurt Busch. The car looked terrible in the early going, but the crew got it running right by mid-race, such that he led the most laps (5 extra points). He just didn't have enough time to seal the deal after the pit road problems.
* Jimmie Johnson -- 1st, That's eight wins now for the Lowe's car, and more important four in the last five races. It is that momentum that has not only pulled him back into contention for the win, but makes him a huge favorite for the championship going into next week's race. He now trails Busch by a mere 18 points.
* Ryan Newman -- 34th, Ryan's going to look back on this season and point to his eight DNFs as the reason why he couldn't win it all. He had one of the fastest cars Sunday and might have contended for the win, but his engine went up seven laps from the finish line. That was just the capper on a frustrating day that saw him blow a tire early and go a lap down. He must have taken 100 tires over the course of the race. The short pit strategy got him close to the front, but then the engine failed. Sigh.
* Kasey Kahne -- 5th, Overcame a back-of-the-pack start after damaging his car in practice. Relax, Kahne fans, next week's your week...
* Jamie McMurray -- 4th, Winning the Busch race obviously helped. He was a strong contender all race.
* Kurt Busch -- 6th, The luckiest of all lucky dogs in this race had to be the #97. His car was decent if not dominant, but when he roughed up his fender and fell back into the mid-20s, it looked like this might be his undoing in the Chase. But he bounced back, and a few other guys ahead of him dropped out in the late going, he wound up with a decent spot. (Drat!)
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 11th, Dale recovered well, too, although not enough to preserve his spot in the Chase. He slips to 4th, 72 points back. Not impossible to win it all next week, but it would take a great finish and some bad luck by the others ahead of him.
* Dale Jarrett -- 37th, Can you hit the wall much harder than he did? Don't know if he had a tire blow or got turned around or what, but he went straight in to the Turn 2 wall on lap 195 and that was it. Car was mediocre before then.
* Mark Martin -- 2nd, Happy as a clam to be fifth in the Chase and 82 points out. Dim hopes for winning it all, but it could still happen.
* Tony Stewart -- 17th, Had to made an unscheduled pit stop late in the race that cost him any chance at the championship. Just a disappointing year for Tony.
REST OF THE TOP 10:
* Carl Edwards -- 7th, One day I'm going to start picking this guy. Could he be the next Ryan Newman/Jimmie Johnson? Never led, but came darn close.
* Joe Nemechek -- 8th, Not making a lot of noise, but having a career year.
* Bobby Labonte -- 9th, Hey, that makes a couple weeks in a row for a top 10 finish...
* Mike Bliss -- 10th, Who? He took over Ward Burton's ride and makes an impressive debut. He's been a regular for Joe Gibbs in Busch series, but looking for a job next season. Didn't hurt his prospects Sunday.
OTHER NOTABLES:
* Michael Waltrip -- 33rd, Haven't talked much about him this year, but he got the highlight of the day award for plowing Todd Bodine down the backstretch after the two of them got together. It's been a frustrating year for the Napa crew.
* Other Chasers -- Jeremy Mayfield, Matt Kenseth and Elliott Sadler all had mediocre days, finishing 19th, 20th and 23rd respectively. One of the drawbacks to the Chase format is that, now, we no longer care.
Next week... Busch, Gordon or Johnson? We decide it all with 400 miles at Homestead-Miami.
Week 35 -- Darlington
The end is nigh. No, we still have one more week left in the season, but this is the last time the Southern 500 will be run in the fall at Darlington Raceway. Come this time next year, the gNA$hCAR boys will be zipping around the faster (and comparatively boring) confines of Texas Motor Speedway as they close in on the Chase finale.
And speaking of the Chase, the end is also night for some of the competitors who haven't already been eliminated. Today really should separate the men from the boys, as it were. Here are my predictions for Sunday's outcome:
Glenn's Ten:
* Jeff Gordon (winner) -- I feel like a broken record these days, picking Jeff or his protege Jimmie Johnson to win week after week. But it's tough to argue with success, and Jeff has had plenty on this track and in this race specifically. He has won five times in the fall, which ties the record. How sweet it would be to send off this fall classic by winning the last one. Jeff also has desperation on his side -- he needs to make up ground on Kurt Busch in a hurry if he hopes to capture that fifth title a week from now. I think Gordon's "drive for five" will keep him alive for a big finish.
The rest of the top 10 (in no particular order):
* Jimmie Johnson -- Won the spring race. Could repeat.
* Ryan Newman -- Robbed of a chance to win five straight poles when rain canceled qualifying on Friday. Thinks this is a great track for him. Was the car to beat last fall until he hit the kill switch on his ignition box and lost beaucoup laps on pit road trying to get refired.
* Kasey Kahne -- Won the Saturday truck race and was 11th in the Busch race. Seat time usually helps.
* Jamie McMurray -- Won the Busch race Saturday. Gnassi usually supplies good equipment.
* Kurt Busch -- This one could be trouble, but he'll do what he needs to do to keep the pressure on the other contenders.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- His driver, Martin Truex Jr., captured the Busch crown Saturday. Dale wants to do the same in Cup next week.
* Dale Jarrett -- There was a point this season when I thought he was close to a win. This probably won't be it, but perhaps he can capitalize on a good starting spot (12th).
* Mark Martin -- Do or die time for the Viagra Ford. The extra incentive will help him get a good finish.
* Tony Stewart -- Clinging to hope, but barely.
Missing in action: Elliott Sadler (Little hope left, but we'll see)... Matt Kenseth (The wheels are coming off the wagon)... Jeremy Mayfield (The wheels came off a long time ago. Now the horses are running off as well.)
Sleeper picks: Casey Mears (fastest in final practice and desperate for that first win)... Carl Edwards (I always discount him, but he was quick in practice and has been running well of late.)
Phoenix recap
Knock on wood, but we haven't had a rainout this season. You would figure that being down in the desert there wouldn't be much chance of showers, but the drivers had to dodge the raindrops all afternoon. That led to some interesting strategies, which ultimately affected the finishing order. I'll do my quickie recap:
GLENN'S TEN (6-for-10):
* Jimmie Johnson (winner) -- 6th, Had a good car, but got caught up in traffic because of the shuffle on pit stops after Terry Labonte's crash.
* Jeff Gordon -- 3rd, Didn't have that good a car, but played the 2-tire game during pit stops about 50 laps from halfway, hoping to gain track position before a rain-shortened race, which didn't come to pass. He wound up leading many laps, but the older tires and a tight car hurt his chance to win on the final restart with 10 to go.
* Ryan Newman -- 2nd, A familiar headline: "Bad luck bites Newman." He cut a tire and went a couple of laps down early, but he eventually recovered and simply ran out of time to catch Dale Earnhardt Jr. Did have enough to get by Gordon for the second spot at the checkers. Drat!
* Tony Stewart -- 8th, Didn't hear much from Tony, but he benefitted from the last couple of cautions and the guys in front of him who came in for pit stops.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 1st, Repeat performance as the Phoenix winner looked unlikely for a time. He wanted to take tires on the next to last caution, but Tony Eury Sr. talked him out of it. Guess that's why he's the crew chief. The win moves him to within 47 points of the lead.
* Jeff Burton -- 11th, Just missed the show. He was in the top 10 for a bit.
* Mark Martin -- 15th, Said before the race that he had only about a 15th place car, and that's exactly what it was.
* Matt Kenseth -- 36th, Two words: Engine failure. Bye-bye any fleeting title hopes he might have had.
* Jamie McMurray -- 24th, Hello walls. At least it happened near the finish, so he didn't lose any laps. He was the last car on the lead lap, however.
* Rusty Wallace -- 7th, Was too good a finish for the Miller Lite Dodge, but I'll take it.
REST OF THE TOP 10:
* Kevin Harvick -- 4th, Looked sort of like the old Harvick, running well and getting into an altercation with Kasey Kahne on pit road after the checkers.
* Kasey Kahne -- 5th, Lost the battle with Harvick for the 4th spot. Shared his feelings on pit road by bumping into Harvick's left front fender. Easy there, buddy. Don't want any payback with Homestead coming up in a couple of weeks, which might be your best chance all season for victory...
* Bobby Labonte -- 9th, remember when Bobby routinely finished in the top 10? Tried fresh tires on the next to last caution and it helped him get a decent finish.
* Kurt Busch -- 10th, I had my hopes when he got caught a lap down following Terry Labonte's crash that he would stay down. But alas, he got back on the lead lap and made the show. Keeps him out front in the points chase by 41 over Jeff Gordon.
OTHER NOTABLES:
* Jeremy Mayfield -- 21st, Another snoozer of an average day.
* Casey Mears -- 34th, Will this kid ever catch a break? Had a 2nd or 3rd easy before be lost a tire and pounded the wall for the final caution. Until that he had been holding off Little E for the spot. Never a good position to be in.
* Elliott Sadler -- 38th, There was so much promise when the Chase began.
Next week... With 48 points separating the top four spots, who will cash in from a dance with the Gray Lady at Darlington?
Week 34 -- Phoenix
We've got ourselves a Chase again. A week after more than half of the championship contenders had trouble at Atlanta, we head to the desert for the Checker Auto Parts 500 with Kurt Busch clinging to a narrowed lead. Ryan Newman won his fourth straight pole on Friday (what else is new?) and Jimmie Johnson is going for his fourth straight win. So is the race of fours? Let's see...
Glenn's Ten:
* Jimmie Johnson (winner) -- Why not? The kid's on a hot streak at just the right time, and he stands to become the first driver to win four back to back since Jeff Gordon did it in 1998. Jimmie has finished well here in the past. And with the Hendrick organization still mourning the loss of 10 comrades two weeks ago, this would go a long way to help lighten their spirits.
The rest of the top 10 (in no particular order):
* Jeff Gordon -- Struggled a bit in practice (again), but starts in the top 10. Looking for his first win on this circuit.
* Ryan Newman -- As Ryan said himself, when you have the pole you have no excuses. He smoked the track record and the rest of the field in qualifying.
* Tony Stewart -- Can sniff the points leaders again after turn of fortunes in Atlanta.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- Won here last year.
* Jeff Burton -- One of only a couple drivers to win here twice.
* Mark Martin -- No stranger to the top 10 at Phoenix.
* Matt Kenseth -- Only starting 16th this time. Might be too close to the front for him.
* Jamie McMurray -- I keep leaving him off my list and he keeps hitting the top 10. This will probably jinx him.
* Rusty Wallace -- Might make a quiet run to make the show.
Dark horses: Kasey Kahne and Carl Edwards.
Chasers I left off the list: Elliott Sadler (Going backward in the standings)... Kurt Busch (This is supposed to be a good track for him, so he could rise to the occasion after finishing 42nd last Sunday. But I wonder...) and Jeremy Mayfield (Has reverted to his mediocre ways).
Third time's a charm
There were plenty of tears to go around Sunday when NBC and the gNA$hCAR community paid tribute to the victims of last week's Hendrick plane crash in Martinsville. But it would be difficult to shed any tears for Jimmie Johnson after his stirring victory that not only honored his fallen comrades but also pulled him back into the hunt for a championship.
It was a day when six of the ten Chase contenders suffered setbacks of varying degrees (more on that in a moment) and a qualifying field of 58 drivers left a couple of Cup regulars sitting on the sidelines.
GLENN'S TEN (4-for-10... eh):
* Jeff Gordon (winner) -- 34th, Arrrgh! As horrible a day as it was for the DuPont boys, Jeff still manages to gain ground on the points lead. But oh what might have been! With Kurt Busch making an early exit, Jeff could have gained big-time ground on the other Chasers. He could have finished the day with the points lead. But alas, the car suffered a broken shock absorber and spent 25 laps behind the wall. If Jeff somehow does win the title he will be scratching his head wondering how he did it with so much mediocre luck in the final 10 races.
* Jimmie Johnson -- 1st, I knew one of the Hendrick cars would finish the day in Victory Lane, I was just wrong as to which one. Jimmie's third consecutive win was a stirring moment that will long be remembered in the sport. He, crew chief Chad Knaus, and the rest of the Hendrick drivers had difficulty composing themselves when it was all over. But as Jimmie said in Victory Lane, winning is the best medicine for their pain.
* Ryan Newman -- 17th, One of the first Chasers to have problems Sunday, he dropped suddenly to the pits under green to change tires because of a vibration. Problem fixed, but it left him a lap down and he never got it back.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 33rd, Little E looked like he would emerge from the day as the big winner. His car was running in the top 5 much of the day and he was poised to regain the points lead with Gordon's and Busch's woes. That was until with 15 laps to go when he tangled with Carl Edwards. The #8 spun down the backstretch and rammed the inside wall. Game over for the Bud boys, but he comes away with a net gain in points.
* Joe Nemechek -- 4th, Another solid day for the U.S. Army car.
* Kasey Kahne -- 5th, Starting 32nd didn't affect him much. Just tuning up for Homestead in three weeks.
* Bobby Labonte -- 20th, Guess I overestimated Bobby's chances. Can I just blame it on the Fastback McSwain factor? I'll be kind and just overlook it.
* Dale Jarrett -- 15th, Frankenstein looked good on the hood. The care looked average on the track.
* Matt Kenseth -- 41st, One of two Roushers with engine failures. Matt is still barely alive in the Chase.
* Tony Stewart -- 9th, A quiet day for Tony, who makes a big jump in the points.
REST OF THE TOP TEN:
* Mark Martin -- 2nd, Had the strongest car, but late tire strategies on the final two cautions wound up costing him the victory. Somehow I don't think he's too upset about it. The solid finish puts him within 80 points of the lead.
* Carl Edwards -- 3rd, Best career finish and he took out Dale Earnhardt Jr. to boot. Not a bad day overall.
* Jeff Burton -- 6th, I was surprised to see him here after he had to head to the back of the field for an engine change. This is definitely a team to watch in 2005.
* Brian Vickers -- 7th, Best finish in ages for rookie of the year candidate whose season has been less than stellar.
* Jamie McMurray -- 8th, And once again I overlooked him.
* Greg Biffle -- 10th, Mark Martin was upset with his teammate late in the race when Biffle got in his way on the restart and cost him the lead.
OTHER NOTABLES:
* Robby Gordon -- 16th, Won't be returning in the #31 next year. Who is Richard Childress going to replace him with? Hopefully someone who is less of a road hazard.
* Jeremy Mayfield -- 26th, Remember when he poured it on in September to make the Chase? Seems like so long ago.
* Kevin Harvick -- 35th, Nice day until he blew his engine.
* Elliott Sadler -- 36th, One of the cursed Chasers. He ran into Joe Nemechek coming onto pit road, broke the steering linkage, then wound up facing wrong-way-in to his pit stall while the crew worked to repair the problems. He finished mucho laps down.
* Kurt Busch -- 42nd, Up in smoke on lap 51. Guess he didn't want younger brother Kyle to feel lonely on the sidelines after a failed timing chain took that car out seven laps earlier. The #97 looked in jeopardy of losing the points lead to Jeff Gordon or Dale Earnhardt Jr., but with so much bad luck to go around, Kurt winds up clining to a 59-point lead over Jimmie Johnson, who is back in the hunt.
Next week... Jimmie goes for four in a row in the heat of the desert... Phoenix.
