2006 Preseason Predictions
Probably not the way it will be, but certainly the way I think it might be at the end of the Chase...
1) Jeff Gordon -- It's now or maybe never for that fifth title. 2005 began with such promise and ended on a high note, but in between was a stretch of horrible finishes that sank the DuPont Chevy and relegated one of the best drivers in gNA$hCAR history to his worst ever season finish of 11th. He WILL make the Chase in 2006. When he does, watch out.
2) Greg Biffle -- He came oh-so-close to winning the title last year and is driven to get one this season. I don't think anyone will deny a focused Gordon, however. Not even a Roushketeer.
3) Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- Back with Tony Eury Jr. at crew chief and regrouped after a disappointing 2005 season. Junior has the pieces in place, and the maturity, to make a serious run at a championship.
4) Tony Stewart -- Tony is more relaxed these days. He is always a threat to make the Chase. But Tony had his day last season and it is very tough to repeat.
5) Ryan Newman -- Another bridesmaid. I keep waiting for him to put the rest of the pieces of the puzzle in place (i.e. victories to go with all those poles). He showed more poise in the latter half of 2005. Will rivalry with Kurt Busch now in the garage push him to the next level?
6) Mark Martin -- Having fun going into his final season. Just won't have enough to clinch that elusive championship.
7) Denny Hamlin -- The bar for rookies has been set very high, but Denny is no flash in the pan. Expect to see the FedEx Chevy finishing up near the front more often this season.
8) Kyle Busch -- The kid will be a star in this league, but he needs to mature. Going fast isn't the only thing you need to win a championship; you have to have a good head on your shoulders, which comes with experience and maturity.
9) Carl Edwards -- He shocked a lot of observers in 2005 when he made the Chase and then finished third. This year the expectations are high, but the pressure may not be a benefit down the stretch.
10) Jimmie Johnson -- I don't like the way things are starting out for Jimmie. This looks like a year for a lot of distractions, which are never good when trying to focus on the big picture. Jimmie can carry this team for a while, but if Chad Knaus winds up with more than a wrist slap after the recent rule infractions, that will be a serious dent in Johnson's ability to contend for a title.
GUYS I DIDN'T PICK:
* Matt Kenseth -- If Jimmie Johnson isn't there, Matt will be.
* Kurt Busch -- A rebuilding year with a new team. Fugeddaboudit.
* Jamie McMurray -- Puhlese. Jamie will find a way to blow a shot at the Chase with Roush just as he did with Ganassi. He's a decent driver -- read that as decent, not great.
* Martin Truex Jr. -- He'll be a star eventually, but I don't see it happening in his rookie season.
* Bobby Labonte -- Maybe he and Robbie Loomis will return Petty Enterprises to respectability. Maybe Bobby will never win another race in his career.
* Jeremy Mayfield -- Talent level of competition continues to improve; Jeremy doesn't.
* Kevin Harvick -- Slacker. This will be his last year with Richard Childress -- if he lasts to the end of the season. Happy needs to shake things up and get with a team that will give him the motivation he needs to live up to his real potential.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:
* Denny Hamlin has to be my pick since he is also my sole rookie pick to make the Chase. But I could see Martin Truex or Clint Bowyer giving him a run for his money. Clint's trouble is he's with RCR in the #07 ride Dave Blaney left at the end of last season. The car was a frequent DNF. Truex Jr. has the full backing of DEI, which might help him at places like Daytona and Talladega, but I've yet to see him knock out a solid finish in Cup.
Revving up for 2006
The Daytona 500 is tomorrow, which officially begins another season for the gNA$hCAR Nextel Cup drivers. Ordinarily it would also begin another season of gNA$hCAR Notes, and I would chime in here every week with my "Glenn's Ten" predictions, then the post-race analysis for each of the 36 points races.
I say "ordinarily" because this is not going to be an ordinary season for gNA$hCAR Notes. As much as I have enjoyed doing the weekly posts for the past two years, I have found the two hours or so they consume of my weekend to be time I can't afford right now. So for 2006 at least I will probably post sporadically if at all. 8-(
That said, I will make my preseason predictions and then check back at some point to see how I'm doing/how I did.
DAYTONA 500 (Week 1)
Jeff Burton is on the pole (imagine that!) and all eyes are on folks like Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart and Dale Earnhardt Jr. to win the Great American Race. But the guy I'm watching is Kurt Busch. Why? Busch, when he drove for Jack Roush, was a consistent threat to win at Daytona. Even a couple of years ago when he wound up a lap down, he still had one of the fastest cars on the track. Granted, he's no longer driving for Roush, but I think that will be his extra incentive to finally win one. he has a lot to prove to the racing community, and to his new owner, Roger Penske. The Penske Dodges of late have had a tough run at Daytona. Who will soon forget Ryan Newman's end-over in 2003? Rusty Wallace tried for years to win here and never could. Busch excels under pressure, and he's got a bunch after his late-season altercation with some Phoenix traffic cops that was the nadir of his career with Roush. He's stepping into the #2 Miller Lite machine once piloted by the popular Wallace. And he will now be teammates with the strong-willed and equally talented Newman, which should stir a strong rivalry. Plus I think that Busch is due. This won't be a championship year for him -- too many strikes against him trying to adjust to a new team -- but Sunday could be his day at Daytona.
GLENN'S TEN (in no particular order, and for this week only):
* Kurt Busch (winner) -- see above.
* Jeff Gordon -- if the engine doesn't break. Hendrick motors have been showing chinks in qualifying and practice.
* Matt Kenseth -- he was my pick to win the Bud Shootout but ran into problems early. Hasn't been a good Speedweeks for him thus far.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- Jr. will be back in top form this year.
* Denny Hamlin -- Won the Shootout and might have earned some respect in the process. It could pay off in a top 10 finish.
* Tony Stewart -- A threat to win. He did win Saturday's Busch race.
* Mike Wallace -- You always need a dark horse, and Mike's mine. The #09 has found a way to finish in the mix in past years.
* Dale Jarrett -- knows how to get it done in the closing laps.
* Mark Martin -- This time it really is the last chance for a win in the 500.
* Jimmie Johnson -- Oh how I'd love to pick him for the win, given all the adversity he's had to overcome this week. With crew chiew Chad Knaus on suspension for what amounts to cheating, Jimmie had to go to the back of the field for the Twin 150 race. He proved he has a car to win, but I worry about those Hendrick engines. Moreso, I don't think it's Jimmie's turn yet.
AND WHAT ABOUT... Carl Edwards? (Bad luck in the Bud Shootout is a sneak preview of Sunday)... Greg Biffle? (Probably should have included him. He has run well here other occasions)... Michael Waltrip? (Not convinced yet that being in business for himself is going to get him to the checkers)... Elliott Sadler (Will find a way to choke when the race is on the line)... Kyle Busch? (Aggressiveness will be his undoing)... Ryan Newman? (Every driver has a track too tough to tame. This one is Ryan's).
