gNA$hCAR Notes
Week 27 -- New Hampshire (Chase Round 1)
The fallout in the wake of Richmond has already started. This week we saw Jeff Gordon's crew chief resign after his driver failed to make the field of 10 with a chance to win this year's Nextel Cup. There are drivers who, like Gordon, will be throwing everything out the window on the remainder of the season and starting to work on strategy for next year. That is the aspect of the Chase that adds spice to gNA$hCAR's new format. Forget the fact that you have the 10 best drivers who are in the hunt for the title and who will be going all out at Loudon this Sunday; now you also have the also-rans with nothing to lose. Ought to make this week all the more entertaining.
This will be my last post for a couple of weeks as I will be away from the Internet for a while, so I will recap this race and next week's event at Dover when I return. In the meantime, here are the Loudin predictions:
GLENN'S TEN:
* Jimmie Johnson (winner) -- OK, the Chase is on and it's time for Jimmie to turn up the fire at a track where he has won before. JJ is long overdue for a win, and what better time to get one than the first race of the championship playoff.
REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):
* Kurt Busch -- Has been salivating over a return to the spot where he launched last year's championship drive with a victory. He could win this one too, but I'm going to bet against him.
* Jeff Gordon -- First race under his new crew chief and everyone's going to want to shine. Jeff knows how to drive this track, but he has looked plain awful in recent appearances here. He won't win, but he will be a factor for a change.
* Ryan Newman -- Ryan got his first career win here in the rain three seasons ago. He'd better step it up if he hopes to remain in the Chase through Homestead-Miami.
* Tony Stewart -- It's showtime, which is when Smoke seems to do his best.
* Matt Kenseth -- He just keeps getting better. Seems focused, which is a good thing.
* Greg Biffle -- Was mid-pack in practice, but he'[ll get it together on race day.
* Mark Martin -- More solidly in the Chase than he was a year ago. He's just out there having fun and the results show it.
* Kyle Busch -- The kid's improving rapidly. Young guns seem to do well here. Johnson and Newman both excelled here in their rookie seasons.
* Kasey Kahne -- See my note on Kyle Busch.
AND WHAT ABOUT? Rusty Wallace (Fastest in practice, but can he score the good finishes now that the pressure's on?)... Jeremy Mayfield (Stronger championship run this year than last, but this track was the start of his undoing in 2004)... Carl Edwards (Not counting him out yet, but he struggled in practice. Wait for Atlanta.).
ALSO WATCHING: Jeff Burton and Robby Gordon, who are past winners here. I give Jeff the nod as a dark horse.
Let the Chase begin
Well, so much for my theory that Dodges would rule and that Chevys had extra incentive at tonight's Richmond race. It was Fords that stole the show, and specifically the Fords of Roush racing. That would seem only fitting, however, when one considers that all five of the Roush drivers are in the Chase. Let's see... that's a 50 percent chance that Jack Roush will score his third champion in as many years.
This is getting me more depressed. Time for the postmortem...
GLENN'S TEN (6-for-10... And it could have been even better 8-/ ):
* Kasey Kahne (Winner) -- 8th, Ran in the top 10 all night and led briefly, but wasn't one of the elite.
* Jeremy Mayfield -- 6th, This just seems to be a good track for Evernham and company.
* Jamie McMurray -- 40th, For the second year in a row, Jamie blows his Chase dreams on the final night. He found his way into the top 10, but as things got desperate in the final 50 laps he made a couple of ill-advised passes. One of them caused him to slide up the hill and get into Tony Raines, who slid into Ricky Rudd and caused Rudd to crash. McMurray continued on, banging with Raines, and took himself out seconds later when he spun into the inside wall. Chase dreams up in smoke.
* Ricky Rudd -- 38th, Ricky was robbed! He had a top 10 sorta night happening when the McMurray incident ended things prematurely.
* Matt Kenseth -- 2nd, As I predicted, a good run. Watch out for Matt in the Chase.
* Tony Stewart -- 7th, Another top 10. What is that now, 11 straight? Tony leads the pack going into the money round.
* Jeff Burton -- 18th, How did he manage to finish here? This looked like a bust of a pick when he went down a lap early. But he managed to eventually get that lap back and hung in for an OK night.
* Ryan Newman -- 12th, Flyin' Ryan got a gift when McMurray crashed out. Still, he had a nail-biter of a night that saw him barely sneak into the Chase in the 10th spot. Wonder now if he can do a Kurt Busch and parlay the 600 points he gains from the field reset into a championship. I can hope.
* Kurt Busch -- 1st, Why is it that I start yawning every time KB talks about his team's work ethic? OK, the guy has a dominant organization behind him, but he's so dang boring. Ah well, at least the victims of Hurricane Katrina benefit from his victory.
* Rusty Wallace -- 5th, This was the "quietly decent night" I forecasted. He will start the Chase in third -- 10 points out -- which is probably as close as he's been to a championship since he won one in '89.
REST OF THE TOP 10:
* Greg Biffle -- 3rd, OK, I shouldn't have doubted him.
* Kyle Busch -- 4th, The only one of the Hendrick drivers to have a good night. Maybe no one told him that Hendrick cars have sucked here lately.
* Terry Labonte -- 9th, A double-red letter day: Texas Terry finishes in the top 10 AND the FedEx car does too. Would this be the #11 team's best finish of the year?
* Kevin Harvick -- 10th, I nearly picked him. He led most of the first 200 laps of the race before the car faded down the stretch. May not have ended with the best car, but he had the best-looking paint scheme with country rocker Gretchen Wilson sprawled across the hood.
OTHER NOTABLES (AND NOT-SO-NOTABLES):
* Mark Martin -- 13th, Recovered nicely after a failing tire brought him into the pits early and left him running near the tail of the pack. Starts 6h in the Chase next week.
* Elliott Sadler -- 17th, Needed a stronger run to have a shot at knocking Newman out of the top 10. Spin on the track didn't help.
* Carl Edwards -- 21st, Rookie makes the Chase in his first attempt.
* Jimmie Johnson -- 25th, Good thing he didn't have to have this race to make the field. Car spent much of the night in the low 30s.
* Jeff Gordon -- 30th, All too predictable. Started 6th, but immediately fell back and then the handling went away. This is becoming the rule rather than the exception. Jeff and company have a lot of soul searching to do before Daytona '06. I think we may finally be seeing the effects of that plane crash in Martinsville a year ago that took out some of Hendrick's best and brightest. All the organization's teams have seemed to struggle this season, with Busch the possible exception of late. I wonder if Robbie Loomis will be job hunting at the end of this season. There will be some serious changes coming in the offseason, particularly if Johnson doesn't do well in the Chase. Stay tuned.
* Robby Gordon -- 35th, Served a 5-lap penalty for rough driving. On his bad nights he's a menace to society.
* Ganassi cars -- Casey Mears was the standard bearer, finishing 23rd. McMurray (40th), Sterling Marlin (41st), and the future Sterling (David Stremme, 42nd) all had equally futile finishes.
Next week... The Chasers get down to business at Loudon.
Week 26 -- Richmond
Time's up! No more monkeying around! It's either make the Chase tonight or go home. Well, maybe not go home, but it sure will be a long couple of months for those who almost-but-didn't make it into the top 10. And I have a fear that a couple of guys I would like to be Chase-ing next week won't be.
This is Richmond, where Dodges rule. This is the Chevy Rock and Roll 400, where drivers of the sponsor's cars will have extra incentive to do well. Let's see how we do.
GLENN'S TEN:
* Kasey Kahne (Winner) -- Why? Kasey got his first and only win here in the spring and has absolutely nothing to lose by going all out tonight. His teammate, Jeremy Mayfield, won this race last year. Ganassi seems to have something for this place, which as you will see in a moment spells bad news for some other drivers.
REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):
* Jeremy Mayfield -- Just because. He runs well here, unfortunately.
* Jamie McMurray -- Jamie missed out on the Chase by 11 points in this race last year. He'll just squeak in. Besides, he's in a Dodge. However, he is starting 32nd...
* Ricky Rudd -- OK, so he's a Ford guy, but he's good at the short trcks and has been running well lately.
* Matt Kenseth -- I'm hoping not, but he seems destined to be a Chaser. This will seal the deal.
* Tony Stewart -- Smoke under the lights. Gotta like him here.
* Jeff Burton -- Improving. Might surprise someone.
* Ryan Newman -- Forced to a backup car that didn't qualify as fast as his starter car had been in practice. He will make the top 10, but it won't be enough to get him into the Chase.
* Kurt Busch -- Always a short track threat.
* Rusty Wallace -- Could have a quietly decent night.
Some other guys I'll be watching: Jeff Gordon (The Chase ends here tonight. Richmond has been a nightmare track for Jeff. He either wins or he crashes out. I'm predicting the latter)... Dale Earnhardt Jr. (Not totally counting him out. He starts 29th, but might find his way to the front)... Kevin Harvick (Starting on the pole guarantees nothing. Trouble likes to find him)... Hendrick and Roush drivers (I'm predicting an off night for all the Hendrick cars, including Jimmie Johnson and last week's winner, Kyle Busch. A track where they should all run well but won't. As for Roush, most of these guys have a Chase spot locked up tight. Only ones who don't are Kenseth and Carl Edwards. Edwards will run well enough to get in but won't make the top 10.)
Busch wins! (No, the other Busch)
Looks like I missed the boat on Kyle Busch this week. I didn't pick him because despite being good in his best races, he's been very bad in his clinkers. I didn't think this would be a good week, and boy was I wrong. Kyle dominated at the front once the Roush parade of leaders got broken up.
Not a lot else to say about this race (other than comments below) except that it was lacking in drama until about the final 20 laps. California Speedway may seat a lot more fans than Darlington, but as a substitute for the now-defunct Southern 500 that was a Labor Day tradition until two years ago, it is a yawner. The NBC crew struggles on its best days to be entertaining, but BP, Wally and Bill seemed to be seeking ways to fill dead air more than usual. There are only so many times they can take us "through the field" before we want to shout "Show us a danged commercial already!" Oh yeah, there were plenty of those too. Maybe it is the 500-mile format. If they kept it to 400 miles I might not have to pry my eyes open for the finish.
GLENN'S TEN (6-for-10... A decent night -- for me, at least):
* Greg Biffle (winner) -- 2nd, Biff just came up short against Kyle Busch. Nothing to be ashamed of here, as he's back up to second in points.
* Jimmie Johnson -- 16th, Jimmie seemed to suffer the Jeff Gordon Curse (more on that in a moment) at the end of this one. I think he got beat by guys who popped on four tires on the final round of pit stops.
* Joe Nemechek -- 10th, Wasn't the win he might have had back in February, but he did just make the show. The car wasn't worth much most of the evening.
* Kasey Kahne -- 6th, Can't believe that Kasey never led a lap in this one. The car looked top-fiveish all night. There were a few cars that were stronger.
* Brian Vickers -- 3rd, Vickers is getting closer to a first win. I shouldn't be surprised that he and Kyle both did well here this time, after they both met with bad luck in February.
* Elliott Sadler -- 17th, The car never looked very strong, but this finish could have been better. Chase possibilities look about done.
* Kurt Busch -- 12th, Kurt looked like he had the intention of leading a lot of laps early. But the car went away in the later runs. Spinning through the grass in the front stretch didn't help matters any.
* Ryan Newman -- 18th, Ryan needed a better finish to keep his position in the Chase picture. Now he finds himself 11th, 1 point behind Jamie McMurray.
* Matt Kenseth -- 7th, I have to root against Matt because his success of late is killing the chances of Newman and Jeff Gordon to make the Chase. He started farthest back of all the Roush cars (23rd) and still managed to lead some laps. (All the Roushers did). A few cars slipped by him in the green-white-checker finish, but he still sits comfortably positioned for the Chase in 8th.
* Carl Edwards -- 4th, Looked to be coming on in the waning laps. An untimely flat tire earlier in the race while he was leading forced him to pick his way through traffic, which probably hurt his finish.
REST OF THE TOP 10:
* Kyle Busch -- 1st, A well-deserved win makes him the youngest in the history of gNA$hCAR to find his way to Victory Lane. Won't be the last time.
* Tony Stewart -- 5th, To think that I doubted him. Smoke held little back in grabbing the lead. Couldn't get there for the win.
* Jamie McMurray -- 8th, This was about the only time all evening he was in the top 10. Late tire change made the difference. But can he hold on to 10th in points next week?
* Ricky Rudd -- 9th, Another good showing. This team is clearly becoming a contender once again.
OTHER NOTABLES:
* Mark Martin -- 11th, All the Roush drivers led a lap or two. Mark is in solid shape for the Chase.
* Sterling Marlin -- 19th, Was in the top 10 most of the night, but lost a few spots in the final sequence.
* Jeff Gordon -- 21st, The Jeff Gordon Curse rears its ugly head again. Jeff said it best during the post-race interview: "We sucked tonight." Can't argue with that. He rolled off 6th and looked good initially, but then the usual handling problems cropped up. Jeff got loose and lost a bundle of positions. He was running in the 30s for a time. The crew got the car dialed in, or so it seemed, as the race wore on. But the final 50 laps found the DuPont Chevy sliding steadily backward. So much for fighting his way back into the Chase picture. Now Jeff has to find a way to scoop up about 30 points on Newman and McMurray next week or he's going to be watching the New York banquet on TV instead of from the head table.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 38th, The engine blew up in spectacular fashion on lap 211, ending his bid for the Chase.
* J.J. Yeley -- 39th, Doesn't matter who they stick in the FedEx car, they still get crappy finishes. J.J. brought out the first caution of the race on the first lap.
Next week: Go or go home. Richmond will fill in the final pieces of the Chase puzzle.
Week 25 -- Fontana (part 2)
Happy Labor Day weekend. Many of us will be out enjoying the holiday, but at least a few guys will be laboring long and hard Sunday evening as they try to race their way into the Chase at California Speedway. This is a wide, fast track that should favor the teams with plenty of horsepower. Look for fuel mileage and engine problems to play decisive rolls in this 250-lapper under the lights.
GLENN'S TEN:
* Greg Biffle (winner) -- Biff's overdue for a win, and what better way to break the drought than at the track where he was among the dominant cars in the spring race, finding his way to the first of his five victories so far this season. He needs to turn up the heat for the start of the Chase, so there is plenty of incentive.
REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):
* Jimmie Johnson -- Used to be J.J. owned this place. I think he'll be a shoo-in for a top 5.
* Joe Nemechek -- Front Row Joe had this race in the bag until bad luck took him out late, as it has so often this year. I'm going to bet that the team won't screw it up twice.
* Kasey Kahne -- Finally, a track where he has plenty of room to keep away from 4-wheeled obstacles.
* Brian Vickers -- Sat on the front row here in February.
* Elliott Sadler -- Chase hopes rapidly fading, but he knows how to get a good finish in Fontana.
* Kurt Busch -- Close to home. Ought to do well here.
* Ryan Newman -- Pressure's on to perform well after last week's early exit in the Dale Jarrett incident.
* Matt Kenseth -- Seems like a man on a mission.
* Carl Edwards -- Starts on the pole, won the Busch race Saturday night, and finished 5th here in February.
OH-OH: Jeff Gordon (Needs to finish well here and should, based on his practice runs. But his pattern has been to stink at his best tracks. Perhaps a top 15.)... Tony Stewart (No pressure until the Chase starts, so I'm not expecting much.)... Mark Martin (Almost made my picks, but not all the Rousch drivers can make the top 10... can they?)... Rusty Wallace (Almost picked him too. This is a good track for him, where he has won a couple of times. But starting too far back.)... Kevin Harvick (Has given up after last week's disappointment.)
