Week 17 — Daytona
We're almost at halfway through the '04 season, and now we start heading to tracks we've already seen once in the previous 16 weeks. Daytona, of course, was the site of Dale Jr.'s win back in February, the race that vaulted him to the top of everyone's list as the next Nextel Cup champion. What has happened since then? Jimmie Johnson. Not only has he usurped Junior's spot at the top of the points standings, but he is pulling away a little each week. It means nothing under the new rules, you say? Just five points a position for the start of the Championship Chase in Week 27? It's also psychological. Just ask Johnson, who said as much in a recent interview. Wonder what coming in as the points leader did to help his game at Sonoma last week, where he finished 5th. Wonder how it might impact things at Daytona on Saturday night? Read Glenn's Ten for my prediction:
* Dale Jarrett (winner) -- Oh, I'm going out on a limb here. DJ's been improving his game week after week, and you know it's just a matter of time before he's back in the winner's circle. What better place to make his return than at Daytona, where he is no stranger to victory. Remember that he won the Bud Shootout here in February, using the same car he'll have Saturday night. He'll hang around near the back until the last 20 laps, then surprise some folks.
The rest of the top 10 (in no particular order):
* Jeff Gordon -- If not Dale, then Jeff's my man. He's on a roll and has the pole (third race in a row). But he has the Pepsi car instead of his DuPont flames, and that usually bodes ill.
* Jimmie Johnson -- Will notch yet another top 5.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- Yes, this is his track probably until the day he retires. But he's had his Daytona win for the year, and the competition (namely Hendrick and Yates) have DEI's number at last.
* Michael Waltrip -- When
doesn't the #15 run well on a restrictor track? He's racking up top 10s again.
* Elliott Sadler -- DJ's teammate has also shown the winning spirit at Daytona (Twin 125 in February).
* Greg Biffle -- Has to prove that last year wasn't a fluke. Maybe he'll do so in more conventional fashion.
* Kevin Harvick -- He's been letting me down lately. Childress cars tend to do well here, provided they stay in one piece to the finish.
* Mark Martin -- Are we done blowing engines? If so, then just maybe...
* Tony Stewart -- gNA$hCAR's resident bad boy has a knack for bouncing back the week after being involved in major controversy. Besides, he needs the money and the points after being slapped with penalties following last week's roughing up of Brian Vickers.
Sleeper picks: Jeff Burton (see my note with Mark Martin), Ward Burton, Matt Kenseth (who usually finds a way, but I'm picking against him.)
And why not... Ryan Newman? (Average finish here of 26th in five appearances.) Bobby Labonte? (Will probably take someone out along with himself on the last lap.) Joe Nemechek? (See that big smoke plume on lap 140?)
