gNA$hCAR Notes
I HATE THE CHASE
There is just too little importance in the first twenty-six races, and too much in the last ten. Tony Stewart and Jeremy Mayfield both paid the price for this new system by being caught in Robby Gordon's latest stupidity. Tony dropped to eighth in the points when in reality he should still be third. It will even be worse if the new points system allows Dale Earnhardt to claim a championship.
Week 27 -- New Hampshire
OK, the Chase is on! This is the first week that we get to see what the contenders can do. But just because you've got 10 guys running for the Nextel Cup doesn't mean all will shine on the flat mile of Loudon. In fact, this will probably be where some will get tripped up severely.
The biggest factor could be the weather, if the remnants of Hurricane Ivan drift that far up the Eastern seaboard by Sunday. Even if that doesn't happen, New Hampshire is notorious for inclement weather, and we haven't had a rainout yet this season. Our fingers will be heavily crossed.
GLENN'S TEN:
* Jimmie Johnson (winner) -- The #48 has met with catastrophe four of the past five races, so my guess is that the bad luck has run its course. Time for the most dominant team so far this season to hit its stride and make a bid for its first championship.
The rest of the top 10 (in no particular order):
* Jeff Gordon -- Has dominated here in past years, but recently had share of difficulty. He won't screw up now, not with a fifth title in sight.
* Carl Edwards -- I haven't picked him up till now, but he shows signs of being a contender next season, and this track favors young guns.
* Kasey Kahne -- I did say this track favors young guns. Kasey has something to prove now after narrowly missing the cut for the Chase.
* Mark Martin -- He's on a tear. Don't write off this veteran's chances at the Cup.
* Matt Kenseth -- Yeah, gotta pick him.
* Ryan Newman -- Got his first win here and has run well every other appearance at Loudon.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- Now's the time to back up the championship talk. Media and millions of gNA$hCAR fans will be cheering for the Bud car.
* Jeff Burton -- This used to be his venue. Will it be again now that he's with his new team and psyched about racing once more?
* Dale Jarrett -- He's got nothing to lose now. This starts the tuneup for a championship push in 2005.
Chasing their tails... The contenders I left out of the top 10 and why: Tony Stewart (I've got a bad feeling about this one), Kurt Busch (Not all the Roushers will make the cut), Elliott Sadler (So excited just to make the top 10 that he'll swoon the rest of the season), Jeremy Mayfield (Puhlese).
NOTE: This will probably be the last regular post for a couple of weeks as I will be losing Internet access until early October. Please check back regularly for possible updates.
Tired of chasing, let's go racing...
Well, Richmond lived up to its billing as one of the hottest night spots on the gNA$hCAR circuit with one of the best races we've seen this year. Any time you have no idea who's going to walk away with the win until the checkered flag falls, you know you've seen an exciting contest.
We had a little of everything -- Lots of cautions, the drama of seeing which of eight drivers would make it to the Chase and which wouldn't, the "Big One," fuel and tire strategy, and a win by a guy who hasn't won since just about forever.
Now the 10 Chase contenders are locked in and we can sit back for the next 10 races and ignore the rest of the field like we would have been doing anyhow.
My picks looked brilliant about midway through when I had 8 of 10 in the top 11, but thanks to Jimmy Spencer and Casey Mears being boneheads on a restart, I wound up a miserable-looking 4-for-10:
GLENN'S TEN:
* Dale Jarrett (winner) -- 26th, On a night when DJ needed to be flawless he was anything but. The car didn't handle well all evening. He got down a lap and never made it back because there was always someone else ahead of him in line to get the Lucky Dog pass. Just disappointing.
* Mark Martin -- 5th, Despite others' best attempts to ruin Mark's night, he hung on for a solid finish to clinch a Chase spot. Have you ever seen a veteran this delighted to be in the hunt? He looked positively youthful in the post-race interview, and it had to be more than the Viagra. Wouldn't it be ironic if this is his year after four times as runner-up under the old points system? Watch out for the #6!
* Ryan Newman -- 20th, Got caught a lap down when the caution came out during green flag stops. We Flyin' Ryan fans were biting our nails in the waning laps as he battled to preserve track position and his slim points lead over 11th-place Jamie McMurray, all the while worried about having the fuel to go the distance. In the end, he finished just well enough to make the cut. But this isn't a championship squad right now, and we'll be going to tracks where Ryan hasn't run well. I hate to say it, but this isn't looking like Ryan's year.
* Jeremy Mayfield -- 1st! I'm not a Mayfield fan, but if you think his gratitude over standing in Victory Lane wasn't genuine then you haven't been paying attention since Jeremy last won in August 2000. More important, the win locked up a Chase spot. Let's see what Ray Evernham can do with it.
* Kasey Kahne -- 24th, Ouch. Bounced from the top 10 on the final day. Spinning out and getting caught a lap down at one stage didn't help matters. The car wasn't as good after the spin, but still he had made a run up through the field before getting caught down again on the pit stops.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 2nd, Dale got caught up in the Big One that ruined the day for several of my drivers. Fortunately for Little E, his car sustained minor damage and was able to lead several laps. For a while he looked like a threat to sweep both races here.
* Jimmie Johnson -- 36th, Let's just say that Jimmy Spencer, Casey Mears and Dale Jarrett aren't high on his Christmas list right now. The three aforementioned drivers got to banging on each other after a restart, and ultimately Spencer and Mears got together, which resulted in Mears hitting the wall and several other cars wrecking to avoid him. Johnson got the worst of it, with a caved-in front that left him many laps down and robbed him of the points lead going into the Chase.
* Jeff Gordon -- 3rd, How does a guy with serious handling problems manage to put together this kind of finish? This is why he's a four-time champion on track for five. He takes the lead into the Chase.
* Kurt Busch -- 15th, Running out of gas before the finish is such a bummer! Would have won otherwise.
* Matt Kenseth -- 28th, Matt almost pulled one of his patented from-nowhere-to-the-front tricks, except that the crew had a very slow stop on pit road, then flubbed and left a jack wrench affixed to the car's rear-end. Matt lost a couple of laps in the process and never recovered.
REST OF THE TOP 10:
* Mike Bliss -- 4th, His second Cup start. The new Tony Stewart for Joe Gibbs Racing?
* Carl Edwards -- 6th, Maybe I should start taking him seriously.
* Mike Wallace -- 7th, Wins my underdog of the day award. He stayed out on a caution and old tires to lead 40 laps or so over a frustrated Mayfield. The #09 isn't as feeble as some of the other back markers.
* Greg Biffle -- 8th, Natch. On a day I didn't pick him.
* Jamie McMurray -- 9th, Just like Biffle. Except that he didn't finish well enough to ace Newman for the 10th spot. He made no apologies afterward, admitting that his team just didn't get the job done this season. Maybe next year. Not to feel too bad -- all his Gnassi teammates will be nonfactors too.
* Rusty Wallace -- 10th, OK, so maybe the farewell tour does start early.
OTHER NOTABLES:
* Bobby Hamilton Jr. -- 11th, Ricky Craven wouldn't have done this.
* Kevin Harvick -- 12th, High expectations, total deflation. No Chase this year.
* Bobby Labonte -- 16th, No Fatback, no chance. No Chase.
* Tony Stewart -- 19th, Everyone is excited about Joe Gibbs returning to the loser Washington Redskins. His winning gNA$hCAR franchise is adrift. Will Tony turn it on in the "postseason?" Coming weeks will tell us a lot about this team's future.
* Brendan Gaughan, Brian Vickers, Scott Wimmer and Scott Riggs -- 27th and 37th-39th respectively, These rookies just can't buy a break, it seems. Will Riggs be back next year? I'm betting not. Vickers' operation needs a serious overhaul. And DUI aside, Wimmer isn't as bad as the luck he's had, but he needs the offseason to regroup. Brendan Gaughan may be a great truck racer, but Penske's gonna tire of him by year's end if Kodak doesn't first. Only Kasey Kahne has lit 'em up in this year's rookie class.
Next week... The *real* Chase begins as the points are reset for the trip to the "Magic Mile" at New Hampshire.
Tired of chasing, let's go racing...
Well, Richmond lived up to its billing as one of the hottest night spots on the gNA$hCAR circuit with one of the best races we've seen this year. Any time you have no idea who's going to walk away with the win until the checkered flag falls, you know you've seen an exciting contest.
We had a little of everything -- Lots of cautions, the drama of seeing which of eight drivers would make it to the Chase and which wouldn't, the "Big One," fuel and tire strategy, and a win by a guy who hasn't won since just about forever.
Now the 10 Chase contenders are locked in and we can sit back for the next 10 races and ignore the rest of the field like we would have been doing anyhow.
My picks looked brilliant about midway through when I had 8 of 10 in the top 11, but thanks to Jimmy Spencer and Casey Mears being boneheads on a restart, I wound up a miserable-looking 4-for-10:
GLENN'S TEN:
* Dale Jarrett (winner) -- 26th, On a night when DJ needed to be flawless he was anything but. The car didn't handle well all evening. He got down a lap and never made it back because there was always someone else ahead of him in line to get the Lucky Dog pass. Just disappointing.
* Mark Martin -- 5th, Despite others' best attempts to ruin Mark's night, he hung on for a solid finish to clinch a Chase spot. Have you ever seen a veteran this delighted to be in the hunt? He looked positively youthful in the post-race interview, and it had to be more than the Viagra. Wouldn't it be ironic if this is his year after four times as runner-up under the old points system? Watch out for the #6!
* Ryan Newman -- 20th, Got caught a lap down when the caution came out during green flag stops. We Flyin' Ryan fans were biting our nails in the waning laps as he battled to preserve track position and his slim points lead over 11th-place Jamie McMurray, all the while worried about having the fuel to go the distance. In the end, he finished just well enough to make the cut. But this isn't a championship squad right now, and we'll be going to tracks where Ryan hasn't run well. I hate to say it, but this isn't looking like Ryan's year.
* Jeremy Mayfield -- 1st! I'm not a Mayfield fan, but if you think his gratitude over standing in Victory Lane wasn't genuine then you haven't been paying attention since Jeremy last won in August 2000. More important, the win locked up a Chase spot. Let's see what Ray Evernham can do with it.
* Kasey Kahne -- 24th, Ouch. Bounced from the top 10 on the final day. Spinning out and getting caught a lap down at one stage didn't help matters. The car wasn't as good after the spin, but still he had made a run up through the field before getting caught down again on the pit stops.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 2nd, Dale got caught up in the Big One that ruined the day for several of my drivers. Fortunately for Little E, his car sustained minor damage and was able to lead several laps. For a while he looked like a threat to sweep both races here.
* Jimmie Johnson -- 36th, Let's just say that Jimmy Spencer, Casey Mears and Dale Jarrett aren't high on his Christmas list right now. The three aforementioned drivers got to banging on each other after a restart, and ultimately Spencer and Mears got together, which resulted in Mears hitting the wall and several other cars wrecking to avoid him. Johnson got the worst of it, with a caved-in front that left him many laps down and robbed him of the points lead going into the Chase.
* Jeff Gordon -- 3rd, How does a guy with serious handling problems manage to put together this kind of finish? This is why he's a four-time champion on track for five. He takes the lead into the Chase.
* Kurt Busch -- 15th, Running out of gas before the finish is such a bummer! Would have won otherwise.
* Matt Kenseth -- 28th, Matt almost pulled one of his patented from-nowhere-to-the-front tricks, except that the crew had a very slow stop on pit road, then flubbed and left a jack wrench affixed to the car's rear-end. Matt lost a couple of laps in the process and never recovered.
REST OF THE TOP 10:
* Mike Bliss -- 4th, His second Cup start. The new Tony Stewart for Joe Gibbs Racing?
* Carl Edwards -- 6th, Maybe I should start taking him seriously.
* Mike Wallace -- 7th, Wins my underdog of the day award. He stayed out on a caution and old tires to lead 40 laps or so over a frustrated Mayfield. The #09 isn't as feeble as some of the other back markers.
* Greg Biffle -- 8th, Natch. On a day I didn't pick him.
* Jamie McMurray -- 9th, Just like Biffle. Except that he didn't finish well enough to ace Newman for the 10th spot. He made no apologies afterward, admitting that his team just didn't get the job done this season. Maybe next year. Not to feel too bad -- all his Gnassi teammates will be nonfactors too.
* Rusty Wallace -- 10th, OK, so maybe the farewell tour does start early.
OTHER NOTABLES:
* Bobby Hamilton Jr. -- 11th, Ricky Craven wouldn't have done this.
* Kevin Harvick -- 12th, High expectations, total deflation. No Chase this year.
* Bobby Labonte -- 16th, No Fatback, no chance. No Chase.
* Tony Stewart -- 19th, Everyone is excited about Joe Gibbs returning to the loser Washington Redskins. His winning gNA$hCAR franchise is adrift. Will Tony turn it on in the "postseason?" Coming weeks will tell us a lot about this team's future.
* Brendan Gaughan, Brian Vickers, Scott Wimmer and Scott Riggs -- 27th and 37th-39th respectively, These rookies just can't buy a break, it seems. Will Riggs be back next year? I'm betting not. Vickers' operation needs a serious overhaul. And DUI aside, Wimmer isn't as bad as the luck he's had, but he needs the offseason to regroup. Brendan Gaughan may be a great truck racer, but Penske's gonna tire of him by year's end if Kodak doesn't first. Only Kasey Kahne has lit 'em up in this year's rookie class.
Next week... The *real* Chase begins as the points are reset for the trip to the "Magic Mile" at New Hampshire.
Week 26 -- Richmond
It's put-up or shut-up time for the Chase contenders. Those clinging to the bottom of the top 10 and those just on the outside HAVE to finish well tonight or they can forget booking those plane tickets to New York. But of course not everyone will accomplish that goal.
I am frankly in a tizzy over this week's picks. After my disastrous predictions of last week, I feel sort of like one of those Chase hopefuls looking to redeem myself with the performance of my life. But my focus this week has been on the start of football season, learning about the strengths and weaknesses of the gridiron guys, which has diverted my attention from the race track. But let's see how I do...
GLENN'S TEN:
* Dale Jarrett (winner) -- Ol' DJ has been quietly making a run at respectability this season. He's had a few top 5's recently. He's 43 points out of the Chase. Tonight he will rise to the occasion and finally return to Victory Lane, but will still fall short of making the "postseason" based on my other predictions. How will he do this? Beats me! He's starting 25th, but perhaps teammate Elliott Sadler's win last week will be the inspiration he needs to finish well.
The rest of the top 10 (in no particular order):
* Mark Martin -- Mark smells blood now that he's in the hunt. He won't choke tonight. Might even win.
* Ryan Newman -- He's got the pole, but can he repeat his Richmond performance of last year? (I'm hoping so!) No, he'll fall short of a win, but he will get the top 5 he needs to lock up the Chase spot.
* Jeremy Mayfield -- Finished second to Newman last year.
* Kasey Kahne -- Finishes second to everyone, it seems.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- Developing into a good short-track driver. Won the spring race.
* Jimmie Johnson -- Remember it's the CHEVY Revolution 400. Chevy must be well represented in the top 10.
* Jeff Gordon -- I'm very worried. Has little to gain or lose here, so just might choke. But look out starting at New Hampshire...
* Kurt Busch -- Had a great race going here in the spring before losing a fan belt.
* Matt Kenseth -- You thought I'd forget to include the #17 this week? Almost...
Will I regret not picking: Tony Stewart? (Ran strong in the spring.) Jeff Burton? (Likes his new team and runs well on the short tracks.) Rusty Wallace? (Hmmmm. Farewell tour starts NEXT year.)
Goners: Bobby Labonte and Kevin Harvick are on the outside looking in, where they will still be after this race. Jamie McMurray starts 36th. That doesn't bode well for making the cut.
Sadler trashes the competition in Fontana
An interesting race Sunday. For a while it looked as if they wouldn't need the lights to complete this 250-lapper, but a flurry of cautions near the end slowed things down enough that they didn't have to shoot off the fireworks during a southern California sunset. I had a chance to attend this race, but I decided a few months ago to opt out. I'm sorta glad now that I did, because my guy Jeff Gordon had an awful day when all was said and done. In fact, the five Hendrick cars got aced out of the top 10 entirely.
And what was with all the garbage flying arounfd the infield? They had to throw a caution about 100 laps in just so crews could remove the accumulation of hotdog wrappers and plastic bags that were clogging the grills of the cars and raising water temperatures to unbearable levels.
Speaking of trash, my picks this week belonged in the can. I was a miserable 2-for-10 (ugh!) and probably couldn't have done worse if I'd just grabbed numbers out of a hat. Hey! Maybe I'll try that sometime...
GLENN'S TEN:
* Jeff Gordon (winner) -- 37th, He was destined for a top 5 before the engine blew. But even before that he had trouble when he ran into debris from Greg Biffle's cut tire. Jeff was fastest on the track at one point after repairing the damage, but it just wasn't meant to be.
* Jimmie Johnson -- 14th, He ran in the top 10 for a bit, but the car simply wasn't that strong. The cautions didn't help.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 34th, Don't know why I picked the #8 here. DEI can't run worth a lick at Michigan, which is the sister track to Fontana. He hung around in the mid teens for a long while, but then he spun out, and after than he got caught up in Ken Schrader's barbecue with 19 to go.
* Matt Kenseth -- 22nd, Got lost in the shuffle on the late cautions. The car was never as good after being damaged by Biffle's tire debris.
* Kurt Busch -- 12th, I got screwed out of a top 10 finish with the #97. He lost a couple of spots just before the checkers fell.
* Jeff Burton -- 15th, He was up in the top 10 several times. A very good run, but not quite good enough.
* Ryan Newman -- 5th, Ryan did what he had to do to improve his chances of making the Chase. He's up to 8th now, but still needs a good run next week to lock in. The car was mediocre today, as was its driver who didn't feel well.
* Bobby Labonte -- 20th, Bobby's got three problems now: 1) No Fatback, 2) That putrid Wellbutrin paint scheme, and 3) He's out of the top 10 in points. This wasn't the finish he needed , and likely won't contend for a second championship this fall.
* Dale Jarrett -- 8th, Glad to see he finished well, but it doesn't help him in the points race -- he's still 45 out with one race to go.
* Greg Biffle -- 36th, Some will say this awful finish is all my fault, as every time I pick Biffle he whiffs, and vice-versa. But this week he managed to ruin the day for four of my picks at once with that cut tire. The explosion ripped apart the rear of his car, then the debris was nailed by Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth and Dale Jarrett. Only Jarrett wound up in the show by day's end.
REST OF THE TOP 10: (Sorry this list has to be so long...)
* Elliott Sadler -- 1st, I knew I'd made a mistake when he stormed to the front in the opening laps. Third career victory solidifies his spot in the Chase. The kid's come of age with Robert Yates Racing.
* Kasey Kahne -- 2nd (yet again), You know, with Rusty Wallace retiring after next season, perhaps they can affix the deuce on the side of Kasey's car instead. It's bad enough that's he's been runner-up five times this year, but who would have figured he'd be second
twice to Sadler? I'll book him a date in Victory Lane when they run at Homestead in November.
* Mark Martin -- 3rd, Takes over 10th in the points. Had the car to beat and got caught in traffic.
* Jamie McMurray -- 4th, He and Biffle must read my predictions and then do just the opposite. Jamie's still alive for the Chase, but needs help and a good race Saturday to make it.
* Carl Edwards -- 6th, This kid's got something after all. Might not be too long until we see that first Cup Victory Lane backflip. (Will he still be able to contend for Rookie of the Year next season if he runs the rest of this season in the #99? I think they only allow six races before you lose eligibility. This was number three.)
* Scott Riggs -- 7th, Nobody talked about him, but isn't this his best finish of the year?
* Robby Gordon -- 9th, Contract negotiation time applies pressure, which improves finishing position. Robby's in the way even when he's on the lead lap.
* Rusty Wallace -- 10th, Is this the beginning of the Last Call tour? Maybe knowing that retirement looms at the end of 2005 will loosen him up and he'll run better now.
OTHER NOTABLES:
* Brian Vickers -- 13th, Got himself another pole and still the #25 team couldn't figure out what to do with it. I'll say it again -- this isn't all Brian's fault. The kid's still learning, but this team is a weak link in the Hendrick stable.
* Jeremy Mayfield -- 16th, Runs well at Richmond, but this doesn't bode well for making the Chase.
* Tony Stewart -- 18th, And no better.
* Bill Elliott -- 25th, Retire. Entirely. Please.
* Kevin Harvick -- 28th, The only guy more disappointed than Bobby Labonte. OK, maybe he's just as disappointed, but he's still outside the top 10 now.
Next week... It's put up or shut up time for the Chase contenders under the lights Saturday night at Richmond.
Week 25 -- California
I must admit that it feels very odd watching this race in Fontana under the lights instead of at Darlington in broad daylight, where the Cup dudes have raced every Labor Day weekend for half a century. But that's the wave of the future for gNA$hCAR, where fast cookie-cutter ovals are in and tradition flies out the window.
One tradition that won't fly out the window Sunday is Hendrick Motorsports' dominance at Fontana, where Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson have won two of the past three races (2003 was an aberration) and Brian Vickers is on the pole. How will they do under the lights?
GLENN'S TEN:
* Jeff Gordon (winner) -- Jeff has a knack for winning inaugural events, and since this is the first time for a night race in September at Fontana, on a track where he runs very well, I'm gonna put him in Victory Lane.
The rest of the top 10 (in no particular order):
* Jimmie Johnson -- If Gordon doesn't win, Johnson will be right there. Figure he wants it badly after a lousy August, and would like to build some momentum for the Chase.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- Bristol win boosts confidence.
* Matt Kenseth -- Always. Even from 30th.
* Kurt Busch -- Won here in spring 2002.
* Jeff Burton -- I think it's finally time to take him seriously again.
* Ryan Newman -- Clinging to 10th in points, and barely. Good run last week. Needs another at a track that *should* favor Penske success.
* Bobby Labonte -- Ditto for the #18. These guys have been steadily fading. It's do well here or watch the Chase from the outside looking in.
* Dale Jarrett -- Coming on strong when it counts, but too little too late?
* Greg Biffle -- Won the Busch race Saturday, so I'm nervous.
No room at the inn: Tony Stewart (starts deep, but usually finds a way to get up front), Kasey Kahne (Should run well here, but I couldn't bring myself to pick him), Casey Mears (Runner-up Saturday. Still improving), Jamie McMurray (This is the weekend the Chase ends for the #42).
Kudos! To Boris Said. Always fun to see Boris Badenov in the show.
