Preseason predictions revisited
As promised, it's time to turn back the clock over 9-1/2 months to see how my predictions fared. Then I'm bailing on gNA$hCAR for a few months (until Daytona) to concentrate on my other sports obsession -- football.
Let's count 'em down from my selections for worst to first (Numbers in parentheses indicate actual finish):
10 -- Jamie McMurray (11th)
What I said: "Second season for this kid and a great team to back him up. Experience puts him in the show at the end of the year."
What he did: Jamie missed the Chase by just a handful of points at Richmond in September. He was a hot commodity in the final 10 races, finishing more than 300 points ahead of his nearest competitor for the 11th spot. He easily could have finished 6th or 7th overall had he made the Chase.
9 -- Matt Kenseth (8th)
What I said "History suggests that defending champs often suffer a letdown the following season. Kenseth is a model of consistency, but in the New NASCAR you've gotta win. And the law of averages (bad luck) ought to catch up with him soon."
What he did: Kenseth made the Chase and then swooned, notching poor finishes in three of the final 10 races. At least he doubled last season's win total (2 victories). He'll be back in 2005.
8 -- Bobby Labonte (12th)
What I said: "He started hot last year and faded toward season's end. Lack of Joe Gibbs in the front office will affect his teams. Bobby should be a factor in the Chase."
What he did: One of the major disappointments of 2004 was the #18 team's performance in the clutch. With the firing of crew chief Michael "Fatback" McSwain, Labonte faded from a comfortable sixth place in the standings to missing the Chase on the final race of the "regular season" at Richmond. It took until the last three races for him to get the ship righted. No poles, no victories and lots of bad luck... it's hard to believe that things won't be better next year.
7 -- Kurt Busch (1st)
What I said: "Just missed the top 10 on the final race of the '03 season. He's a good driver, and he should settle down after last season's antics with Jimmy Spencer."
What he did: We'll call Kurt champion for now, because that's what gNA$hCAR is calling him under its new format. But let's face it -- Kurt would have been an also-ran at best after falling behind the leaders by over 300 points heading into the Chase. He won the title because of his consistency and good luck in the final 10 races, not the least of which included avoiding the pit wall when he lost his wheel at Homestead in the final race. Now he can slip back to mediocrity for 2005.
6 -- Dale Earnhardt Jr. (5th)
What I said: "Dale will be many folks' pick to win it all. Maybe he can. He showed great improvement last year. But I'll believe he's a championship contender when I see him finally win one. I think all the commercial endorsements have to eventually take their toll on this up-and-coming star."
What he did: Dale proved that he can contend for a championship, but he shot himself in the foot enough times to hurt his bid. He lost 25 points for intentionally bringing out a caution at Bristol, and another 25 for swearing on camera during a Victory Lane interview. Those lost points would have put him up to 4th, so they were costly in many ways. Still, Dale is maturing into a classy and formidable driver. I may have to pencil him in for a title next season.
5 -- Jeff Gordon (3rd)
What I said: "I'd like to place him higher, and knowing his past I could easily see him winning it all with the new format. But this isn't the mid-'90s anymore, and Jeff's odds of winning number five get longer as the competition steps it up. I see him being more focused on bringing up guys like Johnson and Vickers than on winning for himself. Still, look for him to win his traditional three or four races in '04."
What he did: Jeff won five races and looked mighty during the mid-season, but he faded to mediocrity (for him) in the final 10 races. He missed out on wins at tracks he's dominated in the past such as Martinsville and Darlington, and he had the abysmal finish at Atlanta that probably was his undoing for a fifth title. He missed out on a win at Phoenix that he probably didn't deserve anyway, but it was typical of his late season that saw him rope-a-dope his way to finishing third. One of two drivers not to have any major disasters, but he didn't shine when he could and should have.
4 -- Tony Stewart (6th)
What I said: "No contract worries this year, but like Labonte he will be affected by the front office shakeup. I think Tony will have an "up" season after last year's disappointment."
What he did: I don't think you would call '04 an "up season" for the #20. Yes, he finished 6th, but he did so more by default on the part of the drivers who finished behind him in the Chase. If not because of Gibbs' football distraction, there has to be some explanation for Tony's antics early in the year that had some wondering if he would still be driving the car by year's end. Scuffles with other drivers on and off the track drew unneeded attention to Tony. He seemed to go soft in the Chase, driving less aggressively, and it showed. Not a memorable year for the Gibbs stable.
3 -- Kevin Harvick (14th)
What I said: "Another guy who could easily win it all, but he needs to can some of the attitude and focus on racing. I don't think last season was a fluke."
What he did: Major disappointment number two of the year has to be Harvick's inability to do much of anything. No poles, no wins and no Chase. After the big race at Daytona it was all pretty much downhill. Can we blame it all on Kevin or on Richard Childress? Too much turmoil in the RCR shops. Expect major shakeups with Robby Gordon leaving and Jeff Burton going to the #31. Kevin will be more focused next year. He'd better be.
2 -- Jimmie Johnson (2nd)
What I said: "Would have won it all under the new format if it had been in place last year. He got burned by several late-race mishaps last year. But he's the real deal, and with Hendrick behind him this could be the year. He might even do a Ryan Newman-like tour of Victory Lane in '04, given the right circumstances."
What he did: Boy, did I nail this prediction! His eight wins were exactly what Ryan did last season, leading all drivers. Major difference was that he got most of them in the Chase, when he really had to win to make up for the huge hole he dug after a series of DNF's. To come back from 236 points down to finish 8 points behind Busch for the championship tells me who really should have been the champ this year.
1 -- Ryan Newman (7th)
What I said: "I'm going out on a limb here, I know. Ryan would have been a lock for the title last year if not for his early season bad luck/inconsistency. The eight wins aside, he showed remarkable poise for a second-year driver, and his team still has a tremendous advantage with all the engineering degrees present. With Penske's switch to Dodge a year behind them, this should be the year they can focus on the bigger picture, and will."
What he did: Ugh! Major disappointment number three. Ryan's inconsistency showed painfully in the final 10 races. He grabbed four poles in a row but finished well in only one of those races. Blown engines, crashes, etc., doomed him. Ryan doesn't play well with Rusty Wallace, which hurt him at times he needed his teammate to work with him (such as Martinsville). Maybe Ryan is a hallmark of consistency in that his performance has been inconsistent three seasons in a row now. Could be a great champ if he and Penske can get it together during the offseason.
OTHER TOP 10 DRIVERS:
* Mark Martin (4th) -- Good to see Mark return strong for his penultimate season. He almost didn't make the Chase, but once he was in it he showed the old tenacity that made him a contender for much of the past decade.
* Elliott Sadler (9th) -- Was happy just to be there, and proved it with a quick fade in the Chase. Still, this was a career year for Sadler who figures to be a factor in the future.
* Jeremy Mayfield (10th) -- One of my huge gripes about the Chase format is that a guy like Mayfield plays his way into the field with a hot streak to ace out someone more deserving like McMurray and then stinks up the joint in the final 10 races. I think we say the real Mayfield after Richmond. He had a bad race at Dover and then quit, week after week.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:
My pick: Brian Vickers (25th) -- Brian was a huge disappointment, but I truly believe it had more to do with his team than with him. Inexperience probably was a factor with some of the poor finishes, but bad pit stops and mechanical issues shot him in the foot more than they should have. Hendrick obviously recognized that, because the orgnaization just announced a major shakeup involving the #25 and #5, the two underperformers in the house.
Winner: Kasey Kahne (13th) -- I wouldn't have picked Kahne to go anywhere, but that's why Ray Evernham is a successful owner and former crew chief and I'm not. Kasey got four of his five second-place finishes early in the year. Figure that he'll get that first win next year. He smoked the field in an otherwise anemic rookie class.
