2005 season predictions
I know these are the most anticipated predictions of the year (yeah, right), so I'll get right to them.
NEXTEL Cup Top 10, in order of finish:
1) Jimmie Johnson -- The guy who should have won last year won't be the bridesmaid for a third year in a row. He's already off to a good start, winning the Bud Shootout last Saturday night.
2) Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- Here's a man on a mission. He wants to win. The media want him to win. The fans want him to win. He's shaken up his crew in the offseason. It will either be a boom year or a bust. Little E won't let it be a bust.
3) Jeff Gordon -- Mr. Consistency would have been last year's champ under the old points system, but he was good enough that he could have won under the new format as well, with a little better luck. A savvy racer, he'll find a way to be in the race for the big money when it counts.
4) Tony Stewart -- Tony had an up-and-down sort of year last season. He needs to get off the emotional roller coaster and focus on his driving. When he's on his game he is a threat to win it all. He needs to get off to a fast start in 2005 to have a realistic shot.
5) Matt Kenseth -- Don't count the 2003 champ out. Ever. Matt might not make many visits to Victory Lane, but he is often in the top 10, which is where you want to be to make the Chase.
6) Jamie McMurray -- One of the biggest disappointments of 2004 was this young man not making the cut. He poured it on the final few races to lock up the 11th spot. Maybe that was the kick start he needed to live up to his potential this year.
7) Kasey Kahne -- Last season's top rookie is still looking for that first win. He'll finally get at least one. Experience will make the difference this year.
8) Ryan Newman -- I've downgraded my expectations for the Rocket Man. Last year should have been his breakout season, but he nearly missed the Chase with inconsistent performance midseason. The checkers-or-wreckers approach doesn't work. Ryan needs to stop worrying about leading every lap and just finishing the darn thing. New model Dodges could help or hurt his chances.
9) Dale Jarrett -- DJ spent most of last season rebuilding after a disastrous 2003. He came close to making the cut for the Chase. He's on the pole for Daytona, which by itself isn't an indicator of success over 36 races, but it is a good sign for this once-proud championship team.
10) Kurt Busch -- Last year wasn't entirely a fluke. Kurt was good enough to make the Chase with consistent performance early in the season, even if he was only 7th when the Chase began. Look for him to get in again this year, but the defending champ's curse will leave him
with a mediocre finish.
OTHER CANDIDATES WHO DIDN'T MAKE MY LIST:
Carl Edwards -- You know that someone new will sneak into the top 10. Why not Mr. Edwards, who distinguished himself last season when he stepped into the #99. With Roush behind him there is a good chance he'll make the cut in his first full season. We wanna see some backflips!
Elliott Sadler -- He played his way into the Chase by driving conservatively over the final few races leading up to Richmond. Other teams will step up their game this year, and conservative won't get it
done.
Greg Biffle -- Biffle turned it up in the final weeks of last season. He comes into 2005 with high expectations. If he can string together some good finishes in the first couple of months he might be a factor.
Mark Martin -- Would be a great way to end a career by winning the Cup. Squeaked into the Chase at Richmond last season. Won't get a shot this year.
Bobby Labonte -- Has the #18 crew smoothed over its problems from last season? Labonte showed signs he was coming around late last year, but the competition is stepping up. Joe Gibbs stable still up in the air, and now adding a third team.
Kevin Harvick -- Still driving for Richard Childress, but maybe not in 2006. Rumor has him heading to Penske to replace Rusty Wallace. Such distractions aren't good for a championship run.
Joe Nemechek -- A dark horse? Joe keeps getting better and better. But I doubt he'll be consistent enough to make the cut.
Casey Mears -- He proved last season that he can drive. But he's still driving for Chip Gnassi, who been able to get his stable of Sterling Marlin, Jamie McMurray or Mears to the next level in the past three years. I think McMurray has the best shot.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:
Kyle Busch should be a lock for this, but then I said that about Brian Vickers last year and look what happened. Travis Kvapil and Eric McClure are only other ROTY contenders. Carl Edwards and Bobby Hamilton Jr. aren't eligible because they ran more than six races last season.
