Week 11 -- Richmond
If I were more scientific about this thing, I would pore over the past couple of year's worth of race results to figure out who's going to win Saturday night's visit to Richmond International Raceway. But sometimes I like to go with gut instincts, and this week my gut tells me that it's not good to be a Chevy guy.
I don't like feeling like this, because it spells bad news for some of my favorite drivers. It also means that we could see more of a shakeup in the points, given that most of the halfway decent drivers this year are riding Chevys or Fords, and Ford has been pretty conistent so far (as far as the Roush teammates go.) It always makes me nervous when I make most of my picks from the first five rows, but this seems to be one of those weeks...
GLENN'S TEN:
* Ryan Newman (winner) -- Let's see if we can get it right this week. Ryan missed the pole (2nd), which usually bodes well for a good finish. He runs a Dodge rather than a Chevy. He's won here before. He got rooked out of a victory last week. And most important... he has to use a backup car Saturday, which means the great qualifying effort is all for naught and he'll start from the back of the pack. Ryan loves a challenge. So do I. If he stays out of trouble he'll be popping the champagne cork Saturday night.
REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):
* Jimmie Johnson -- He's in a Chevy, but he's the points leader for a reason.
* Tony Stewart -- OK, another Chevy guy, but he's a former winner here and has the talent to get the job doen under the lights. And he's starting third.
* Kevin Harvick -- Yeah, yeah, I know... I worry greatly about this pick, but Harvick under the lights on a short track is always a potent combo.
* Kurt Busch -- Talk about potent forces on the short tracks. Kurt will bounce back from what arguably was the worst race of his career at Darlington last week.
* Greg Biffle -- The Biff is da bomb. Starts 9th, could finish first.
* Carl Edwards -- Why not? He won here Friday night.
* Mark Martin -- All Roush, all the time...
* Matt Kenseth -- All five of the Roushketeers in the show? I worry most about Matt, who is making up for his trouble-free championship season of 2003.
* Jeremy Mayfield -- Won here in September, arguably in a race he basically had to win to get into his disastrous Chase for the Cup. He's stunk ever since, but perhaps he'll be able to use his notes from the big win.
And what about... Rusty Wallace? (Winningest record on short tracks among active drivers, but trouble always seems to find him.)... Elliott Sadler? (Doesn't like this track, but almost won the Busch race Friday, and ran well here in September.)... Kasey Kahne? (On the pole, but that's almost certain doom.)... Dale Earnhardt Jr.? (I wanted to pick him. He might run top 15, but I don't like him from 27th on the grid.)... Jeff Gordon? (I've got a verrrrry bad feeling about this race. Don't get him anywhere near Kurt Busch. And oh yeah, he's driving a Chevy.)
