Week 16 -- Sonoma
I have come to appreciate this race much more than I did when I first became interested in gNA$hCAR. It used to be I didn't like the fact that many teams bring in road course specialists — or "ringers" — to drive their cars in place of the guys that run them normally. Seemed sort of like cheating. But the fact of the matter is that it makes the races more entertaining, because some of the ringers are pretty darn good and it becomes a challenge to the regulars to see how they can perform with the stiff competition.
In recent years the ringers haven't had much effect on the final outcome. All the races have been won by regulars like Jeff Gordon, Robby Gordon and Tony Stewart. Will that trend continue in 2005?
My record of predictions at the track formerly known as Sears Point has been pretty abysmal. I've been lucky to get two or three right here. But seeing as four has been my average much of this year with the oval tracks I don't think I could do much worse.
GLENN'S TEN:
* Jeff Gordon (winner) -- Jeff is an up-one-week-down-the-next sort of driver, but one thing we know for sure is that he is dominant at the road courses. And when he's on the pole -- as he is Sunday -- the rest of the field better sit up and take notice. Jeff is the defending winner of this race and has won it four times. A former Bay Area boy, a lot of his fans will be there to cheer him on. He'll make it five wins here Sunday.
REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):
* Tony Stewart -- Fastest in Happy Hour and 7th on the grid. Folks saying he's the car to beat. He'll be somewhere near the front at the end.
* Kurt Busch -- Don't know why, but this kid is good on the road courses.
* Mark Martin -- Crafty old veteran going out in style. A dark horse?
* Rusty Wallace -- Crafty old veteran who's going out. He'll get style points if he can avoid last year's disaster of running the tank dry before the finish.
* Boris Said -- I like Boris, but I don't like his car. Let's see if he can keep it running to the finish.
* Jimmie Johnson -- Nearly won the pole Friday and he'd been improving his road game. He'll be a factor, but probably not for the win.
* Michael Waltrip -- No slouch at road racing, despite the disadvantage of starting 34th. His new crew has been helping him turn things around this season.
* Greg Biffle -- This was almost the site of an early Biffle victory. A couple of years ago his crew used good strategy to get him toward the front, but his luck didn't pan out. He is having such a good year that I can't bet against him, even though he starts 41st and had problems in practice. Pit strategy is the key!
* Scott Pruett -- Ganassi always gives him good equipment, and Scott runs this course very well. A threat for the win a couple years ago. Only "ringer" I'm picking.
Others to watch: Robby Gordon (I didn't pick him because his crappy equipment continues to hamper his performance, which is a shame because this is one of his best tracks)... Ryan Newman (Usually runs well here, but I've got a bad feeling)... Joe Nemechek (Running better of late, but will he be able to avoid the mistake that takes him out of contention?)... Jamie McMurray (He can drive this course, but see my note on Nemechek)... Ricky Rudd (Last win came at this track three years ago and I was there. The drought is in no danger of being broken Sunday.)
