Junior does know how to win
We're halfway to crowning a new Nextel Cup champion, and we've learned a few things over the course of the first 18 weeks of the season: 1) The gNA$hCAR season is entirely too long; 2) Roush and Hendrick are the dominant forces behind the sport these days; 3) The Chase will include 10 and no more than 10 drivers; 4) My predictions really have s*cked this year; and 5) rumors of Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s demise may have been greatly exaggerated.
Here you have a team that could barely stay on the lead lap most of the first 16 races, then on the heels of a third-place finish at Daytona a week ago, Junior comes up with an improbable victory and everyone is penciling him in the field for the Chase. Better keep that Bud on ice, guys. Two decent races does not a championship make. Ol' Driver 8 still has a deep hole to dig out of and only eight races left to do it. He could, but I won't put my money on him. Not with places like Watkins Glen, New Hampshire and Bristol still in the wings.
But why should you listen to me? A guy who on his best weeks now manages a meager 4-for-10 on his picks. I feel like I was robbed with this one. Much of the day I had 7-of-10 in the show, but there were "issues" that took my guys out of contention.
GLENN'S TEN: (4-for-10... and this was a good day.)
* Ryan Newman (winner) -- 29th, *Sigh* Ryan had a decent car, but he made an unscheduled pit stop during a caution sequence that left him deep in the field and he had to use pit strategy to work his way back up. Then he got to racing hard on 2 tires and scraped the wall, which took him out of contention.
* Jimmie Johnson -- 3rd, An unscheduled green-flag stop left him trapped a lap down when the caution came out. He eventually got the Lucky Dog to get back on the lead lap and stealthily made his way to the front, but he didn't have quite the car he needed to overhaul the leaders. Hangs on to the points lead.
* Greg Biffle -- 11th, The Biff ran in front for several laps, but pit strategy shuffles left him too deep in the field to mount a late-lap charge.
* Matt Kenseth -- 2nd, Best finish in ages. Matt led the most laps and might have run down Junior given another couple of laps. Taking four tires on the final caution might not have been the best strategy, but that's 20/20 hindsight.
* Mark Martin -- 10th, Sneaks in to the top 10.
* Kevin Harvick -- 19th, Looked good early, but got shuffled steadily backward.
* Tony Stewart -- 5th, Had to start at the rear of the field because he didn't qualify the car after his Friday wreck. Still, he roared his way through the pack in his backup car and did everything short of lead. His car wasn't quite as strong late as it had appeared earlier.
* Kyle Busch -- 14th, He had been in the top 5 early, but I think he may have been dinged for speeding on pit road once. The car went backward on one sequence, so he was running about mid-pack the last half of the race.
* Jeff Gordon -- 33rd, Should have followed my instincts on this one. **Double sigh** This was an abysmal race for Super G. The car was loose all day. They tried to tighten it to no avail. They tried a 2-tire stop, which didn't work. He was mired deep in the 30s most of the day, and then he got spun into the wall less than 20 laps from the finish. This is becoming the rule rather than the exception. Jeff himself said he didn't "know what we were doing back there anyway" all day. Someone needs to start working on his race-day setups. Worst news is that he's behind Junior in the points chase -- and Junior is a dark horse to make the Chase...
* Carl Edwards -- 39th, Carl himself said he had a car capable of winning. That was before he blew a right front tire and smacked the wall. Doh!
REST OF THE TOP 10:
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 1st, Little E started a forgettable 25th and kept tweaking the car all race to get it to the front. He stayed out on the final caution to keep track position, which was the difference. Kenseth struggled to get by Jimmie Johnson and that was all the delay that Junior needed. I'm (obviously) not a big Junior fan, but it was nice to see him in high spirits after his return to Victory Lane.
* Brian Vickers -- 4th, I considered taking him, but I just never know who I'm gonna get. He proved his worth today.
* Jerey Mayfield -- 6th, Sows what a little pit strategy can do. He's in the top 10 in points now. Ugh!
* Ricky Rudd -- 7th, Things are happening again for this team. Can't wait for Pocono.
* Kurt Busch -- 8th, I knew I'd kick myself for not picking him. Ah well. He was in the top 10 all day.
* Casey Mears -- 9th, Started third, so he should have been here, but he didn't make it look easy.
OTHER NOTABLES:
* Rusty Wallace -- 12th, Fourth in the Chase picture. Should I care? If he's in contention on Week 36th, then I will.
* Bobby Labonte -- 13th, No one ever mentioned him.
* David Stremme -- 16th, The next Sterling Marlin makes a memorable Cup debut...
* Jamie McMurray -- 22nd, ...And the next Mark Martin doesn't. At least not today.
* Kasey Kahne -- 41st, Doesn't have Tony Stewart to blame for this year's Chicagoland crash.
Next week... New Hampshire. A flat track. Junior hates flat tracks. Jimmie Johnson loves them.
