End of the year review
Now that the season is over and the smoke has finally dissipated from Tony Stewart’s championship burnout at Homestead, it’s time for one last visit with my preseason gNA$hCAR predictions. Here’s how I fared:
* Jimmie Johnson -- (Prediction: 1st. Finish: 5th) What I said: “The guy who should have won last year won't be the bridesmaid for a third year in a row. He's already off to a good start, winning the Bud Shootout last Saturday night.” Review: OK, Jimmie wasn’t the maid of honor, thanks to crashing out of the final race, but he was a maid nonetheless. This was a disappointing year for Hendrick Motorsports all the way around, but Jimmie looked like the lone bright spot before he slumped a bit mid-season. He wasn’t as sharp in the final 10 races this year, but it’s hard to improve on last year’s stretch drive when he won three out of four at one point to finish just 8 points shy of the title. Jimmie will have his day, I predict. He will be a force to reckon with for years to come.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- (Prediction: 2nd. Finish: 19th) What I said: “Here's a man on a mission. He wants to win. The media want him to win. The fans want him to win. He's shaken up his crew in the offseason. It will either be a boom year or a bust. Little E won't let it be a bust.” Review: Sorry, but it was a bust. The team looked flat the first half of the season, and by the time they got Tony Eury Jr. back on the pit box it was too late to turn things around. There were some bright spots in the second half, including the lone victory at Chicagoland. Look for Junior to get his act together next season and contend again.
* Jeff Gordon -- (Prediction: 3rd. Finish: 11th) What I said: “Mr. Consistency would have been last year's champ under the old points system, but he was good enough that he could have won under the new format as well, with a little better luck. A savvy racer, he'll find a way to be in the race for the big money when it counts.” Review: Gordo did win the race for the big money, taking the million bucks for 11th place, but by missing the cutoff for the Chase, he and fans are left to wonder what might have been. The addition of Steve Letarte at crew chief has made a definite impact. His program on the intermediate tracks looked better in the final month at Phoenix, Texas (for a while) and Homestead. Jeff won’t let it go another year without making the top 10.
* Tony Stewart -- (Prediction: 4th. Finish: 1st) What I said: “Tony had an up-and-down sort of year last season. He needs to get off the emotional roller coaster and focus on his driving. When he's on his game he is a threat to win it all. He needs to get off to a fast start in 2005 to have a realistic shot.” Review: Tony didn’t get off to a fast start, but he peaked at the right time by winning an amazing five races over a seven-week stretch. Then Smoke did what he does well: he managed his lead, using consistent top 10s to salt away the championship. Look out for the future, because this “new” Tony is much more potent when he’s relaxed and focused.
* Matt Kenseth -- (Prediction: 5th. Finish: 7th). What I said: “Don't count the 2003 champ out. Ever. Matt might not make many visits to Victory Lane, but he is often in the top 10, which is where you want to be to make the Chase.” Review: Matt’s chances at a Chase looked dead mid-season. But then something clicked and he got enough good runs to make the cut by the thinnest of margins. While he didn’t show championship form in the final 10 races, he still managed to get some respectable finishes. Still, one win all season is a disappointment for these guys.
* Jamie McMurray -- (Prediction: 6th. Finish: 12th) What I said: “One of the biggest disappointments of 2004 was this young man not making the cut. He poured it on the final few races to lock up the 11th spot. Maybe that was the kick start he needed to live up to his potential this year.” Review: Nope. Sorry. Jamie, in three full seasons, has proven his knack for coming up short, missing the Chase last year at Richmond, and missing out on 11th this year after being in prime position to take it. Taking over Kurt Busch’s ride in the #97 next year will prove his mettle or reveal him as yet another mediocre driver.
* Kasey Kahne -- (Prediction: 7th. Finish: 23rd) What I said: “Last season's top rookie is still looking for that first win. He'll finally get at least one. Experience will make the difference this year.” Review: Kasey did finally get that first victory, at Richmond in the spring. But his lack of consistency doomed him at every turn. Ray Evernham may have been the guy that helped turn Jeff Gordon into a champion, but all the comparisons between Jeff and Kasey end there. Maybe it was just the sophomore jinx, but Kasey can only go up from here.
* Ryan Newman -- (Prediction: 8th. Finish: 6th) What I said: “I've downgraded my expectations for the Rocket Man. Last year should have been his breakout season, but he nearly missed the Chase with inconsistent performance midseason. The checkers-or-wreckers approach doesn't work. Ryan needs to stop worrying about leading every lap and just finishing the darn thing. New model Dodges could help or hurt his chances.” Review: Ryan matured a lot this season, showing more consistency in the latter two-thirds. But he hasn’t figured out how to translate all those poles into wins, or even top 5’s, something he needs to figure out how to do in order to be a serious threat at the title. His one win at New Hampshire in the first race of the Chase was the lone bright spot. He stumbled too much in the latter races. It will be interesting to see how the addition of Kurt Busch to the Penske stable next season affects Ryan’s drive to win. Penske seems to be the only multi-car team where the word “teammate” doesn’t mean anything.
* Dale Jarrett -- (Prediction: 9th. Finish: 15th) What I said: “DJ spent most of last season rebuilding after a disastrous 2003. He came close to making the cut for the Chase. He's on the pole for Daytona, which by itself isn't an indicator of success over 36 races, but it is a good sign for this once-proud championship team.” Review: DJ finally got that long-awaited win with the shocker at Daytona in July. But the rest of the season looked too much like the one before, with the low coming when he took out Ryan Newman and himself along with Chase conteder Kevin Harvick in a retaliatory strike at Bristol. That effectively killed his chances at making the Chase, and we heard nothing more from Dale the remainder of the season.
* Kurt Busch -- (Prediction: 10th. Finish: 10th) What I said: “Last year wasn't entirely a fluke. Kurt was good enough to make the Chase with consistent performance early in the season, even if he was only 7th when the Chase began. Look for him to get in again this year, but the defending champ's curse will leave him with a mediocre finish.” Review: And what a curse it was. This was the only one of my picks that I nailed. Kurt shot himself in the foot with DNFs early in the Chase. He was out of contention long before the reckless driving incident at Phoenix caused him to be suspended for the final two races. Kurt has a lot of maturing to do. I just wish he wasn’t doing it at Penske South next season in the Blue Deuce that belonged to Rusty Wallace.
OTHER CHASERS:
* Carl Edwards -- (Finished 3rd) What I said: “You know that someone new will sneak into the top 10. Why not Mr. Edwards, who distinguished himself last season when he stepped into the #99. With Roush behind him there is a good chance he'll make the cut in his first full season. We wanna see some backflips!” Review: Should have gone with my instincts here. We saw Carl do the flip four times -- twice at Atlanta, once at Texas and also at Pocono. Carl is a breath of fresh air in a sport that has lost a lot of its colorful old-timers to brash Young Guns. He is calm, poised and focused. Better yet, he actually seems to know how to win races. This was for all intents and purposes a rookie season, even if he won’t get the ROTY title to show for it. How long before he’ll win his first championship?
* Greg Biffle -- (Finished: 2nd) What I said: “Biffle turned it up in the final weeks of last season. He comes into 2005 with high expectations. If he can string together some good finishes in the first couple of months he might be a factor.” Review: He strung together more than good finishes, he got five wins early in the season to pace the field. He cooled off a bit when Stewart was getting hot, which probably hurt his shot at the title. He finished in fine form again, taking the win at Homestead for a second year in a row.
* Mark Martin -- (Finished: 4th) What I said: “Would be a great way to end a career by winning the Cup. Squeaked into the Chase at Richmond last season. Won't get a shot this year.” Review: I counted Mark out too early. He looked better this year than in 2004, when he barely made the Chase. And now he gets to come back for one more season. Will 2006 finally be the year Mark gets the monkey off his hood and takes home a elusive championship?
* Jeremy Mayfield -- (Finished: 9th) What I said: Nothing. Review: As usual, I counted Jeremy out at the start of the year. And as usual, Jeremy proved I counted him out too soon, making a strong early run to make the Chase and then whiffing his way through it. Only Kurt Busch’s traffic citation allowed Mayfield the dignity of better than a basement finish for a second straight year.
OTHERS I MENTIONED:
* Elliott Sadler -- (Finished: 13th) What I said: “He played his way into the Chase by driving conservatively over the final few races leading up to Richmond. Other teams will step up their game this year, and conservative won't get it done.” Review: Like teammate Jarrett, faded in the clutch.
* Bobby Labonte -- (Finished: 24th) What I said: “Has the #18 crew smoothed over its problems from last season? Labonte showed signs he was coming around late last year, but the competition is stepping up. Joe Gibbs stable still up in the air, and now adding a third team.” Review: I think Bobby’s heart wasn’t in it this year, which is why he jumped ship for Petty Enterprises in 2006. I don’t expect to see him back in victory lane anytime soon, but sometimes it’s a good confidence booster to be a big fish in a small pond. At least he’ll have Robbie Loomis working with him.
* Kevin Harvick -- (Finished: 14th) What I said: “Still driving for Richard Childress, but maybe not in 2006. Rumor has him heading to Penske to replace Rusty Wallace. Such distractions aren't good for a championship run.” Review: Kevin’s staying put. His reputation as a slacker is growing as he continues to hang with underachiever Richard Childress Racing.
* Joe Nemechek -- (Finished: 16th) What I said: “A dark horse? Joe keeps getting better and better. But I doubt he'll be consistent enough to make the cut.” Review: Typical Joe. Ripped off a few strong runs only to have them torpedoed by bad parts or bad luck.
* Casey Mears -- (Finished: 22nd) What I said: “He proved last season that he can drive. But he's still driving for Chip Ganassi, who hasn’t been able to get his stable of Sterling Marlin, Jamie McMurray or Mears to the next level in the past three years. I think McMurray has the best shot.” Review: Indeed, McMurray finished best of the bunch, but Mears looked the best of the three of them at year’s end. Moving to the #42 next year won’t improve much.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:
* Kyle Busch -- (winner) (Finished: 20th) What I said: “Kyle Busch should be a lock for this, but then I said that about Brian Vickers last year and look what happened. Travis Kvapil and Eric McClure are only other ROTY contenders. Carl Edwards and Bobby Hamilton Jr. aren't eligible because they ran more than six races last season.” Review: Kyle was head and shoulders about Travis Kvapil, the only other serious contender. With two wins on the season and several strong runs, Kyle is in position to have a decent shot at the Chase next year. Has to overcome mechanical woes to get there.
