Week 36 -- Homestead (Chase Round 10 -- and final!)
So it all comes down to this. Just 52 points separates Jimmie Johnson from a championship, and if he's going to overcome the deficit then he'll have to have a stellar day at this mile-and-a-half high-banked oval, and he'll need some cooperation from points leader Tony Stewart. Unfortunately, Jimmie didn't hold up his end of the bargain in qualifying and starts a disappointing 32nd on Sunday. This is cause for concern, but not dispair. You see, Homestead has been an unforgiving track for points leaders in recent years, and it hasn't been especially kind to Chevys (excepting Bobby Labonte's big surprise win here two years ago). That might bode well for Carl Edwards, who starts from the pole and is just 87 points out. Greg Biffle? He could still win this thing, but don't expect to see him popping champagne corks in Victory Lane at the end of this one, unless it is for winning the race itself.
OK, we've set the stage for a fantastic finish. Now for the final...
GLENN'S TEN:
* Greg Biffle (winner) -- This is a Ford track. Even moreso, this is a Roush track. When his cars haven't been winning championships they've been running up front here. Greg can't withstand anything less than a win on Sunday, and even that might not get him the championship, but the extra incentive, coupled with Saturday's second-place run in the Busch race, will get him to the winner's circle.
REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):
* Jeff Gordon -- Jeff has proven he can run well here, but too many others have incentive to keep him away from his first win ever here. Still, he's racing for that 11th place million-dollar bonus.
* Mark Martin -- Turns out this isn't his final race after all, but he'll make a top-5 run.
* Carl Edwards -- He's on a roll at the right time. He could be the dark horse to win it all.
* Bobby Labonte -- Because he's won here before and this is his last race for Joe Gibbs. He'll give it all he's got.
* Ryan Newman -- Coming off a thrilling Busch win Saturday -- his sixth win in seven races. But somehow all those Busch wins and poles during the Cup regular season never seem to translate into Cup victories.
* Kyle Busch -- Has to carry the banner for the other Busch, who won't be here Sunday.
* Casey Mears -- Dodge isn't too shabby here either. Ganassi has a couple of cars starting in the top 10. One of them might even finish there.
* Matt Kenseth -- This has been a nightmarish place for Matt, but I'm figuring he's about due for a good finish. He won't want to miss the Roush party (unlike his former teammate from the #97!)
* Rusty Wallace -- This is the last call for Rusty's Last Call, and his last chance for one more victory before he calls it a career. He won't get it, but oh well.
AND THE REST: Tony Stewart (Tony didn't run well here the year he won his first championship. Many former champions haven't. Jeff Gordon stunk here in 2001; Kenseth crashed out and finished dead last in 2003; Kurt Busch narrowly missed hitting the pit wall when his tire fell off last year, but he rebounded to finish well enough to hold off Jimmie Johnson by 8 points. I fear Tony will be a mid-packer on Sunday, but luck will be on his side and he'll have enough positions behind him to win title number two.)... Jimmie Johnson (I fear that Jimmie won't be able to overcome his poor starting spot. I'd like to see him rally for a top 10 and he just might, but I fear that if he comes up short for the third year in a row he'll start to be the new Mark Martin, always the bridesmaid and never the bride. I'll predict 22nd for Jimmie.)... Kasey Kahne (Kasey was my pick to win this race last year before he wrecked. He wrecked Saturday after leading a portion of the Busch race. He's starting 3rd Sunday. Will he finish?)... Dale Jarrett (I could have almost picked him. A solid 9th-place start at a Ford-friendly track. Unless he races the truck, this should be a race to build into 2006.)
