2006 Preseason Predictions
Probably not the way it will be, but certainly the way I think it might be at the end of the Chase...
1) Jeff Gordon -- It's now or maybe never for that fifth title. 2005 began with such promise and ended on a high note, but in between was a stretch of horrible finishes that sank the DuPont Chevy and relegated one of the best drivers in gNA$hCAR history to his worst ever season finish of 11th. He WILL make the Chase in 2006. When he does, watch out.
2) Greg Biffle -- He came oh-so-close to winning the title last year and is driven to get one this season. I don't think anyone will deny a focused Gordon, however. Not even a Roushketeer.
3) Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- Back with Tony Eury Jr. at crew chief and regrouped after a disappointing 2005 season. Junior has the pieces in place, and the maturity, to make a serious run at a championship.
4) Tony Stewart -- Tony is more relaxed these days. He is always a threat to make the Chase. But Tony had his day last season and it is very tough to repeat.
5) Ryan Newman -- Another bridesmaid. I keep waiting for him to put the rest of the pieces of the puzzle in place (i.e. victories to go with all those poles). He showed more poise in the latter half of 2005. Will rivalry with Kurt Busch now in the garage push him to the next level?
6) Mark Martin -- Having fun going into his final season. Just won't have enough to clinch that elusive championship.
7) Denny Hamlin -- The bar for rookies has been set very high, but Denny is no flash in the pan. Expect to see the FedEx Chevy finishing up near the front more often this season.
8) Kyle Busch -- The kid will be a star in this league, but he needs to mature. Going fast isn't the only thing you need to win a championship; you have to have a good head on your shoulders, which comes with experience and maturity.
9) Carl Edwards -- He shocked a lot of observers in 2005 when he made the Chase and then finished third. This year the expectations are high, but the pressure may not be a benefit down the stretch.
10) Jimmie Johnson -- I don't like the way things are starting out for Jimmie. This looks like a year for a lot of distractions, which are never good when trying to focus on the big picture. Jimmie can carry this team for a while, but if Chad Knaus winds up with more than a wrist slap after the recent rule infractions, that will be a serious dent in Johnson's ability to contend for a title.
GUYS I DIDN'T PICK:
* Matt Kenseth -- If Jimmie Johnson isn't there, Matt will be.
* Kurt Busch -- A rebuilding year with a new team. Fugeddaboudit.
* Jamie McMurray -- Puhlese. Jamie will find a way to blow a shot at the Chase with Roush just as he did with Ganassi. He's a decent driver -- read that as decent, not great.
* Martin Truex Jr. -- He'll be a star eventually, but I don't see it happening in his rookie season.
* Bobby Labonte -- Maybe he and Robbie Loomis will return Petty Enterprises to respectability. Maybe Bobby will never win another race in his career.
* Jeremy Mayfield -- Talent level of competition continues to improve; Jeremy doesn't.
* Kevin Harvick -- Slacker. This will be his last year with Richard Childress -- if he lasts to the end of the season. Happy needs to shake things up and get with a team that will give him the motivation he needs to live up to his real potential.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:
* Denny Hamlin has to be my pick since he is also my sole rookie pick to make the Chase. But I could see Martin Truex or Clint Bowyer giving him a run for his money. Clint's trouble is he's with RCR in the #07 ride Dave Blaney left at the end of last season. The car was a frequent DNF. Truex Jr. has the full backing of DEI, which might help him at places like Daytona and Talladega, but I've yet to see him knock out a solid finish in Cup.
