gNA$hCAR Notes
2006 Preseason Predictions
Probably not the way it will be, but certainly the way I think it might be at the end of the Chase...
1) Jeff Gordon -- It's now or maybe never for that fifth title. 2005 began with such promise and ended on a high note, but in between was a stretch of horrible finishes that sank the DuPont Chevy and relegated one of the best drivers in gNA$hCAR history to his worst ever season finish of 11th. He WILL make the Chase in 2006. When he does, watch out.
2) Greg Biffle -- He came oh-so-close to winning the title last year and is driven to get one this season. I don't think anyone will deny a focused Gordon, however. Not even a Roushketeer.
3) Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- Back with Tony Eury Jr. at crew chief and regrouped after a disappointing 2005 season. Junior has the pieces in place, and the maturity, to make a serious run at a championship.
4) Tony Stewart -- Tony is more relaxed these days. He is always a threat to make the Chase. But Tony had his day last season and it is very tough to repeat.
5) Ryan Newman -- Another bridesmaid. I keep waiting for him to put the rest of the pieces of the puzzle in place (i.e. victories to go with all those poles). He showed more poise in the latter half of 2005. Will rivalry with Kurt Busch now in the garage push him to the next level?
6) Mark Martin -- Having fun going into his final season. Just won't have enough to clinch that elusive championship.
7) Denny Hamlin -- The bar for rookies has been set very high, but Denny is no flash in the pan. Expect to see the FedEx Chevy finishing up near the front more often this season.
8) Kyle Busch -- The kid will be a star in this league, but he needs to mature. Going fast isn't the only thing you need to win a championship; you have to have a good head on your shoulders, which comes with experience and maturity.
9) Carl Edwards -- He shocked a lot of observers in 2005 when he made the Chase and then finished third. This year the expectations are high, but the pressure may not be a benefit down the stretch.
10) Jimmie Johnson -- I don't like the way things are starting out for Jimmie. This looks like a year for a lot of distractions, which are never good when trying to focus on the big picture. Jimmie can carry this team for a while, but if Chad Knaus winds up with more than a wrist slap after the recent rule infractions, that will be a serious dent in Johnson's ability to contend for a title.
GUYS I DIDN'T PICK:
* Matt Kenseth -- If Jimmie Johnson isn't there, Matt will be.
* Kurt Busch -- A rebuilding year with a new team. Fugeddaboudit.
* Jamie McMurray -- Puhlese. Jamie will find a way to blow a shot at the Chase with Roush just as he did with Ganassi. He's a decent driver -- read that as decent, not great.
* Martin Truex Jr. -- He'll be a star eventually, but I don't see it happening in his rookie season.
* Bobby Labonte -- Maybe he and Robbie Loomis will return Petty Enterprises to respectability. Maybe Bobby will never win another race in his career.
* Jeremy Mayfield -- Talent level of competition continues to improve; Jeremy doesn't.
* Kevin Harvick -- Slacker. This will be his last year with Richard Childress -- if he lasts to the end of the season. Happy needs to shake things up and get with a team that will give him the motivation he needs to live up to his real potential.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:
* Denny Hamlin has to be my pick since he is also my sole rookie pick to make the Chase. But I could see Martin Truex or Clint Bowyer giving him a run for his money. Clint's trouble is he's with RCR in the #07 ride Dave Blaney left at the end of last season. The car was a frequent DNF. Truex Jr. has the full backing of DEI, which might help him at places like Daytona and Talladega, but I've yet to see him knock out a solid finish in Cup.
Revving up for 2006
The Daytona 500 is tomorrow, which officially begins another season for the gNA$hCAR Nextel Cup drivers. Ordinarily it would also begin another season of gNA$hCAR Notes, and I would chime in here every week with my "Glenn's Ten" predictions, then the post-race analysis for each of the 36 points races.
I say "ordinarily" because this is not going to be an ordinary season for gNA$hCAR Notes. As much as I have enjoyed doing the weekly posts for the past two years, I have found the two hours or so they consume of my weekend to be time I can't afford right now. So for 2006 at least I will probably post sporadically if at all. 8-(
That said, I will make my preseason predictions and then check back at some point to see how I'm doing/how I did.
DAYTONA 500 (Week 1)
Jeff Burton is on the pole (imagine that!) and all eyes are on folks like Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart and Dale Earnhardt Jr. to win the Great American Race. But the guy I'm watching is Kurt Busch. Why? Busch, when he drove for Jack Roush, was a consistent threat to win at Daytona. Even a couple of years ago when he wound up a lap down, he still had one of the fastest cars on the track. Granted, he's no longer driving for Roush, but I think that will be his extra incentive to finally win one. he has a lot to prove to the racing community, and to his new owner, Roger Penske. The Penske Dodges of late have had a tough run at Daytona. Who will soon forget Ryan Newman's end-over in 2003? Rusty Wallace tried for years to win here and never could. Busch excels under pressure, and he's got a bunch after his late-season altercation with some Phoenix traffic cops that was the nadir of his career with Roush. He's stepping into the #2 Miller Lite machine once piloted by the popular Wallace. And he will now be teammates with the strong-willed and equally talented Newman, which should stir a strong rivalry. Plus I think that Busch is due. This won't be a championship year for him -- too many strikes against him trying to adjust to a new team -- but Sunday could be his day at Daytona.
GLENN'S TEN (in no particular order, and for this week only):
* Kurt Busch (winner) -- see above.
* Jeff Gordon -- if the engine doesn't break. Hendrick motors have been showing chinks in qualifying and practice.
* Matt Kenseth -- he was my pick to win the Bud Shootout but ran into problems early. Hasn't been a good Speedweeks for him thus far.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- Jr. will be back in top form this year.
* Denny Hamlin -- Won the Shootout and might have earned some respect in the process. It could pay off in a top 10 finish.
* Tony Stewart -- A threat to win. He did win Saturday's Busch race.
* Mike Wallace -- You always need a dark horse, and Mike's mine. The #09 has found a way to finish in the mix in past years.
* Dale Jarrett -- knows how to get it done in the closing laps.
* Mark Martin -- This time it really is the last chance for a win in the 500.
* Jimmie Johnson -- Oh how I'd love to pick him for the win, given all the adversity he's had to overcome this week. With crew chiew Chad Knaus on suspension for what amounts to cheating, Jimmie had to go to the back of the field for the Twin 150 race. He proved he has a car to win, but I worry about those Hendrick engines. Moreso, I don't think it's Jimmie's turn yet.
AND WHAT ABOUT... Carl Edwards? (Bad luck in the Bud Shootout is a sneak preview of Sunday)... Greg Biffle? (Probably should have included him. He has run well here other occasions)... Michael Waltrip? (Not convinced yet that being in business for himself is going to get him to the checkers)... Elliott Sadler (Will find a way to choke when the race is on the line)... Kyle Busch? (Aggressiveness will be his undoing)... Ryan Newman? (Every driver has a track too tough to tame. This one is Ryan's).
End of the year review
Now that the season is over and the smoke has finally dissipated from Tony Stewart’s championship burnout at Homestead, it’s time for one last visit with my preseason gNA$hCAR predictions. Here’s how I fared:
* Jimmie Johnson -- (Prediction: 1st. Finish: 5th) What I said: “The guy who should have won last year won't be the bridesmaid for a third year in a row. He's already off to a good start, winning the Bud Shootout last Saturday night.” Review: OK, Jimmie wasn’t the maid of honor, thanks to crashing out of the final race, but he was a maid nonetheless. This was a disappointing year for Hendrick Motorsports all the way around, but Jimmie looked like the lone bright spot before he slumped a bit mid-season. He wasn’t as sharp in the final 10 races this year, but it’s hard to improve on last year’s stretch drive when he won three out of four at one point to finish just 8 points shy of the title. Jimmie will have his day, I predict. He will be a force to reckon with for years to come.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- (Prediction: 2nd. Finish: 19th) What I said: “Here's a man on a mission. He wants to win. The media want him to win. The fans want him to win. He's shaken up his crew in the offseason. It will either be a boom year or a bust. Little E won't let it be a bust.” Review: Sorry, but it was a bust. The team looked flat the first half of the season, and by the time they got Tony Eury Jr. back on the pit box it was too late to turn things around. There were some bright spots in the second half, including the lone victory at Chicagoland. Look for Junior to get his act together next season and contend again.
* Jeff Gordon -- (Prediction: 3rd. Finish: 11th) What I said: “Mr. Consistency would have been last year's champ under the old points system, but he was good enough that he could have won under the new format as well, with a little better luck. A savvy racer, he'll find a way to be in the race for the big money when it counts.” Review: Gordo did win the race for the big money, taking the million bucks for 11th place, but by missing the cutoff for the Chase, he and fans are left to wonder what might have been. The addition of Steve Letarte at crew chief has made a definite impact. His program on the intermediate tracks looked better in the final month at Phoenix, Texas (for a while) and Homestead. Jeff won’t let it go another year without making the top 10.
* Tony Stewart -- (Prediction: 4th. Finish: 1st) What I said: “Tony had an up-and-down sort of year last season. He needs to get off the emotional roller coaster and focus on his driving. When he's on his game he is a threat to win it all. He needs to get off to a fast start in 2005 to have a realistic shot.” Review: Tony didn’t get off to a fast start, but he peaked at the right time by winning an amazing five races over a seven-week stretch. Then Smoke did what he does well: he managed his lead, using consistent top 10s to salt away the championship. Look out for the future, because this “new” Tony is much more potent when he’s relaxed and focused.
* Matt Kenseth -- (Prediction: 5th. Finish: 7th). What I said: “Don't count the 2003 champ out. Ever. Matt might not make many visits to Victory Lane, but he is often in the top 10, which is where you want to be to make the Chase.” Review: Matt’s chances at a Chase looked dead mid-season. But then something clicked and he got enough good runs to make the cut by the thinnest of margins. While he didn’t show championship form in the final 10 races, he still managed to get some respectable finishes. Still, one win all season is a disappointment for these guys.
* Jamie McMurray -- (Prediction: 6th. Finish: 12th) What I said: “One of the biggest disappointments of 2004 was this young man not making the cut. He poured it on the final few races to lock up the 11th spot. Maybe that was the kick start he needed to live up to his potential this year.” Review: Nope. Sorry. Jamie, in three full seasons, has proven his knack for coming up short, missing the Chase last year at Richmond, and missing out on 11th this year after being in prime position to take it. Taking over Kurt Busch’s ride in the #97 next year will prove his mettle or reveal him as yet another mediocre driver.
* Kasey Kahne -- (Prediction: 7th. Finish: 23rd) What I said: “Last season's top rookie is still looking for that first win. He'll finally get at least one. Experience will make the difference this year.” Review: Kasey did finally get that first victory, at Richmond in the spring. But his lack of consistency doomed him at every turn. Ray Evernham may have been the guy that helped turn Jeff Gordon into a champion, but all the comparisons between Jeff and Kasey end there. Maybe it was just the sophomore jinx, but Kasey can only go up from here.
* Ryan Newman -- (Prediction: 8th. Finish: 6th) What I said: “I've downgraded my expectations for the Rocket Man. Last year should have been his breakout season, but he nearly missed the Chase with inconsistent performance midseason. The checkers-or-wreckers approach doesn't work. Ryan needs to stop worrying about leading every lap and just finishing the darn thing. New model Dodges could help or hurt his chances.” Review: Ryan matured a lot this season, showing more consistency in the latter two-thirds. But he hasn’t figured out how to translate all those poles into wins, or even top 5’s, something he needs to figure out how to do in order to be a serious threat at the title. His one win at New Hampshire in the first race of the Chase was the lone bright spot. He stumbled too much in the latter races. It will be interesting to see how the addition of Kurt Busch to the Penske stable next season affects Ryan’s drive to win. Penske seems to be the only multi-car team where the word “teammate” doesn’t mean anything.
* Dale Jarrett -- (Prediction: 9th. Finish: 15th) What I said: “DJ spent most of last season rebuilding after a disastrous 2003. He came close to making the cut for the Chase. He's on the pole for Daytona, which by itself isn't an indicator of success over 36 races, but it is a good sign for this once-proud championship team.” Review: DJ finally got that long-awaited win with the shocker at Daytona in July. But the rest of the season looked too much like the one before, with the low coming when he took out Ryan Newman and himself along with Chase conteder Kevin Harvick in a retaliatory strike at Bristol. That effectively killed his chances at making the Chase, and we heard nothing more from Dale the remainder of the season.
* Kurt Busch -- (Prediction: 10th. Finish: 10th) What I said: “Last year wasn't entirely a fluke. Kurt was good enough to make the Chase with consistent performance early in the season, even if he was only 7th when the Chase began. Look for him to get in again this year, but the defending champ's curse will leave him with a mediocre finish.” Review: And what a curse it was. This was the only one of my picks that I nailed. Kurt shot himself in the foot with DNFs early in the Chase. He was out of contention long before the reckless driving incident at Phoenix caused him to be suspended for the final two races. Kurt has a lot of maturing to do. I just wish he wasn’t doing it at Penske South next season in the Blue Deuce that belonged to Rusty Wallace.
OTHER CHASERS:
* Carl Edwards -- (Finished 3rd) What I said: “You know that someone new will sneak into the top 10. Why not Mr. Edwards, who distinguished himself last season when he stepped into the #99. With Roush behind him there is a good chance he'll make the cut in his first full season. We wanna see some backflips!” Review: Should have gone with my instincts here. We saw Carl do the flip four times -- twice at Atlanta, once at Texas and also at Pocono. Carl is a breath of fresh air in a sport that has lost a lot of its colorful old-timers to brash Young Guns. He is calm, poised and focused. Better yet, he actually seems to know how to win races. This was for all intents and purposes a rookie season, even if he won’t get the ROTY title to show for it. How long before he’ll win his first championship?
* Greg Biffle -- (Finished: 2nd) What I said: “Biffle turned it up in the final weeks of last season. He comes into 2005 with high expectations. If he can string together some good finishes in the first couple of months he might be a factor.” Review: He strung together more than good finishes, he got five wins early in the season to pace the field. He cooled off a bit when Stewart was getting hot, which probably hurt his shot at the title. He finished in fine form again, taking the win at Homestead for a second year in a row.
* Mark Martin -- (Finished: 4th) What I said: “Would be a great way to end a career by winning the Cup. Squeaked into the Chase at Richmond last season. Won't get a shot this year.” Review: I counted Mark out too early. He looked better this year than in 2004, when he barely made the Chase. And now he gets to come back for one more season. Will 2006 finally be the year Mark gets the monkey off his hood and takes home a elusive championship?
* Jeremy Mayfield -- (Finished: 9th) What I said: Nothing. Review: As usual, I counted Jeremy out at the start of the year. And as usual, Jeremy proved I counted him out too soon, making a strong early run to make the Chase and then whiffing his way through it. Only Kurt Busch’s traffic citation allowed Mayfield the dignity of better than a basement finish for a second straight year.
OTHERS I MENTIONED:
* Elliott Sadler -- (Finished: 13th) What I said: “He played his way into the Chase by driving conservatively over the final few races leading up to Richmond. Other teams will step up their game this year, and conservative won't get it done.” Review: Like teammate Jarrett, faded in the clutch.
* Bobby Labonte -- (Finished: 24th) What I said: “Has the #18 crew smoothed over its problems from last season? Labonte showed signs he was coming around late last year, but the competition is stepping up. Joe Gibbs stable still up in the air, and now adding a third team.” Review: I think Bobby’s heart wasn’t in it this year, which is why he jumped ship for Petty Enterprises in 2006. I don’t expect to see him back in victory lane anytime soon, but sometimes it’s a good confidence booster to be a big fish in a small pond. At least he’ll have Robbie Loomis working with him.
* Kevin Harvick -- (Finished: 14th) What I said: “Still driving for Richard Childress, but maybe not in 2006. Rumor has him heading to Penske to replace Rusty Wallace. Such distractions aren't good for a championship run.” Review: Kevin’s staying put. His reputation as a slacker is growing as he continues to hang with underachiever Richard Childress Racing.
* Joe Nemechek -- (Finished: 16th) What I said: “A dark horse? Joe keeps getting better and better. But I doubt he'll be consistent enough to make the cut.” Review: Typical Joe. Ripped off a few strong runs only to have them torpedoed by bad parts or bad luck.
* Casey Mears -- (Finished: 22nd) What I said: “He proved last season that he can drive. But he's still driving for Chip Ganassi, who hasn’t been able to get his stable of Sterling Marlin, Jamie McMurray or Mears to the next level in the past three years. I think McMurray has the best shot.” Review: Indeed, McMurray finished best of the bunch, but Mears looked the best of the three of them at year’s end. Moving to the #42 next year won’t improve much.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:
* Kyle Busch -- (winner) (Finished: 20th) What I said: “Kyle Busch should be a lock for this, but then I said that about Brian Vickers last year and look what happened. Travis Kvapil and Eric McClure are only other ROTY contenders. Carl Edwards and Bobby Hamilton Jr. aren't eligible because they ran more than six races last season.” Review: Kyle was head and shoulders about Travis Kvapil, the only other serious contender. With two wins on the season and several strong runs, Kyle is in position to have a decent shot at the Chase next year. Has to overcome mechanical woes to get there.
Tony times two
What for so many weeks seemed inevitable finally happened on Sunday as Tony Stewart claimed his second Cup championship. It wasn't elegant, as has been the case in recent years at this track. But Tony got the finish he needed to hold off the competition, and it didn't hurt that his nearest challenger, Jimmie Johnson, cut a tire and crashed midway through the event, spoiling his chances.
The fact that Greg Biffle beat Mark Martin in an exciting duel to the checkers to capture the final race of the year was lost in the post-race fireworks. A very good race to bring a fine conclusion to a verrrrry loooong season.
And I got a good conclusion as far as my picks were concerned. It is gratifying to go out by picking the winner...
GLENN'S TEN (7-of-10... Matches my best for the year):
* Greg Biffle (winner) -- Winner! And how he did it I'm not sure, because Greg's car looked average most of the day. He managed to overcome handling problems from early in the race to overtake Mark Martin on the final restart. He held Mark off by a fraction of a second at the checkers to get his sixth win of the season and defend his win here from a year ago. Finishes second in points, 35 back.
* Jeff Gordon -- 9th, Jeff locked up the 11th-place points spot with this finish. For a time it looked like he might be the driver to beat, but as usual the car wasn't its strongest in the final laps when he was racing all the Roush cars. Getting caught in traffic wasn't to his benefit. Wait till Daytona...
* Mark Martin -- 2nd, Darn near won it all. Mark was his usual consistent self, working his way to a late lead that he couldn't hold when teammate Biffle got by him. I don't think Mark realized The Biff was as much of a threat as he proved to be. Winds up fourth in points.
* Carl Edwards -- 4th, Carl won the pole and led the most laps, but he didn't get the win he needed. It wouldn't have made any difference in the bigger picture of the championship, but it did affect his finish in the standings -- tied with Biffle at 35 points back, but third for the year based on number of victories (Biffle's 6 to his 4).
* Bobby Labonte -- 34th, One of my two low spots. Bobby spun out and brushed the wall. It was light damage, but severe enough to take away the aerodynamics and ruin his afternoon.
* Ryan Newman -- 7th, Ryan had a good run going until he and Jeff Gordon made contact and it damaged Ryan's fender. He had to bring the car in early to change tires. He managed to get back on the lead lap, but he never got back up to the front like he'd done earlier in the race.
* Kyle Busch -- 41st, 2005 Rookie of the Year won't want to remember this race. He drove around for a few laps with a tire rub caused by pit contact with Mike Skinner -- (note to Kyle: Avoid Mike Skinner at all costs) -- until the tire blew and put him behind the wall for almost 50 laps.
* Casey Mears -- 5th, There was a point where we actually believed Casey might be headed to his first win. But of course the caution came out while he was leading and ruined his day. Not a bad run overall.
* Matt Kenseth -- 3rd, Great day for all the Roush regulars. Matt's team mouring the death of Crew Chief Robbie Reiser's dad, but they won one for the Gipper. OK, so they didn't win, but you get the idea.
* Rusty Wallace -- 13th, Rusty didn't get the win he would have loved in his final race in his final season, but he goes out with class. I liked the subtle message to Kurt Busch, his successor in the #2 next season, when he told a TV interviewer that he loved all the good things happening with gNA$hCAR and that he'd hate to see anyone screw it up the sport's reputation, old or young. Were you paying attention, Kurt?
REST OF THE TOP 10:
* Dave Blaney -- 6th, Remember this day, because you might not see Blaney's name at all next season. He's still looking for a ride.
* Kevin Harvick -- 8th, There are days when you see flashes of the driver Kevin used to be and should be. Today was one of them. He was up around the top 10 all race.
* Keremy Mayfield -- 10th, Just so we wouldn't completely forget that Jeremey at one time was in the Chase for the Nextel Cup, he came through with a top 10. Yay. Hooray. He'll be a force to reckon with in '06. Right.
OTHER NOTABLES:
* Tony Stewart -- 15th, Who cares where Tony finished, so long as he won the title? He drove a conservative race, never getting higher than about 9th. Once Jimmie Johnson crashed there was very little drama left. When the final caution came out just before Mears would have put him a lap down, Tony was locked into no worse than a 16th-place finish. He needed 25th or better to beat Edwards for the title. A well -deserved second title, which Tony will wear better than the first one he got while on probation.
* Jimmie Johnson -- 40th, An awful day all around for Team Hendrick. With the exception of Jeff Gordon, no other driver finished better than 40th. Jimmie had tire problems reminiscent of Busch's. The tire blew right in front of Gordon as Jimmie was sliding back through the field. Unlike Labonte's solo wipeout earlier, Johnson suffered heavy damage and had to retire from the race. The disastrous finish leaves him 5th overall for the season, much worse than he deserved. But he will have his day in the future, I'm convinced.
Next week... That's all folks! (Well, I'll do my recap of my preseason predictions in the next few days or so.)
Week 36 -- Homestead (Chase Round 10 -- and final!)
So it all comes down to this. Just 52 points separates Jimmie Johnson from a championship, and if he's going to overcome the deficit then he'll have to have a stellar day at this mile-and-a-half high-banked oval, and he'll need some cooperation from points leader Tony Stewart. Unfortunately, Jimmie didn't hold up his end of the bargain in qualifying and starts a disappointing 32nd on Sunday. This is cause for concern, but not dispair. You see, Homestead has been an unforgiving track for points leaders in recent years, and it hasn't been especially kind to Chevys (excepting Bobby Labonte's big surprise win here two years ago). That might bode well for Carl Edwards, who starts from the pole and is just 87 points out. Greg Biffle? He could still win this thing, but don't expect to see him popping champagne corks in Victory Lane at the end of this one, unless it is for winning the race itself.
OK, we've set the stage for a fantastic finish. Now for the final...
GLENN'S TEN:
* Greg Biffle (winner) -- This is a Ford track. Even moreso, this is a Roush track. When his cars haven't been winning championships they've been running up front here. Greg can't withstand anything less than a win on Sunday, and even that might not get him the championship, but the extra incentive, coupled with Saturday's second-place run in the Busch race, will get him to the winner's circle.
REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):
* Jeff Gordon -- Jeff has proven he can run well here, but too many others have incentive to keep him away from his first win ever here. Still, he's racing for that 11th place million-dollar bonus.
* Mark Martin -- Turns out this isn't his final race after all, but he'll make a top-5 run.
* Carl Edwards -- He's on a roll at the right time. He could be the dark horse to win it all.
* Bobby Labonte -- Because he's won here before and this is his last race for Joe Gibbs. He'll give it all he's got.
* Ryan Newman -- Coming off a thrilling Busch win Saturday -- his sixth win in seven races. But somehow all those Busch wins and poles during the Cup regular season never seem to translate into Cup victories.
* Kyle Busch -- Has to carry the banner for the other Busch, who won't be here Sunday.
* Casey Mears -- Dodge isn't too shabby here either. Ganassi has a couple of cars starting in the top 10. One of them might even finish there.
* Matt Kenseth -- This has been a nightmarish place for Matt, but I'm figuring he's about due for a good finish. He won't want to miss the Roush party (unlike his former teammate from the #97!)
* Rusty Wallace -- This is the last call for Rusty's Last Call, and his last chance for one more victory before he calls it a career. He won't get it, but oh well.
AND THE REST: Tony Stewart (Tony didn't run well here the year he won his first championship. Many former champions haven't. Jeff Gordon stunk here in 2001; Kenseth crashed out and finished dead last in 2003; Kurt Busch narrowly missed hitting the pit wall when his tire fell off last year, but he rebounded to finish well enough to hold off Jimmie Johnson by 8 points. I fear Tony will be a mid-packer on Sunday, but luck will be on his side and he'll have enough positions behind him to win title number two.)... Jimmie Johnson (I fear that Jimmie won't be able to overcome his poor starting spot. I'd like to see him rally for a top 10 and he just might, but I fear that if he comes up short for the third year in a row he'll start to be the new Mark Martin, always the bridesmaid and never the bride. I'll predict 22nd for Jimmie.)... Kasey Kahne (Kasey was my pick to win this race last year before he wrecked. He wrecked Saturday after leading a portion of the Busch race. He's starting 3rd Sunday. Will he finish?)... Dale Jarrett (I could have almost picked him. A solid 9th-place start at a Ford-friendly track. Unless he races the truck, this should be a race to build into 2006.)
An all-Busch bash in Phoenix
The most interesting thing to come out of Sunday's race wasn't the fact that Kyle Busch won, but that Kenny Wallace actually drove Kurt Busch's car to a respectable 16th-place finish. All those pictures you might have seen of Jimmy Fenning with his head in his hands before the start of the race probably had little to do with Kurt's plight and more to do with fretting over whether Kenny would bring the car home in one piece. These days you don't want just any old clown driving your multi-million dollar equipment. Oh yeah, that's what Jack Roush was probably thinking when he released Kurt from his contract with two races left in the season. Bet Roger Penske right about now is thinking, "What the heck did I get myself into here?"
If you haven't guessed by now, I don't shed a lot of tears over Kurt acting like a jacka$$ for an Arizona police officer after getting stopped for a "reckless driving" violation. The breathalyzer down at the station "malfunctioned," resulting in an inconclusive test. You can read that any way you like, but if you don't see DUI in that story then you probably still think Kurt has a shot at winning a second championship next Sunday at Homestead.
The race? Oh yeah...
GLENN'S TEN (5-of-10... I was robbed!):
* Jeff Gordon (winner) -- 3rd, Jeff held up his end of the bargain, finishing a solid race near the front. When he pitted a bit earlier than the rest of the leaders under caution, it looked like he might have made a race-winning move. But about 10 laps later the yellow flew again and ruined his chances at the win.
* Jimmie Johnson -- 7th, Jimmy did everything right except the part about having to finish ahead of Tony Stewart. And in the waning laps of the race he choked away two or three positions he desperately needed. 52 points down going into Homestead isn't where he wants to be if he wants to win a championship.
* Carl Edwards -- 6th, Couldn't beat Tony, but he finished ahead of Jimmie and gained a few points on him. Still has an outside shot next weekend.
* Tony Stewart -- 4th, This just looks like Tony's year. He's loose, joking around, focused... Not the same Tony who won the title in 2002.
* Denny Hamlin -- 13th, See, I jumped on the bandwagon at the wrong time. He didn't embarrass himself with this finish.
* Greg Biffle -- 2nd, He had the dominant car all day, but surprisingly it wasn't strong enough to stay ahead of Kyle Busch at the end.
* Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 40th, This pick looks like a huge bust until one considers that it was at least four spots ahead of where Kurt Busch finished. I guess this pick was just doomed to failure from the start. Dale had been running strong until a right front tire blew and put him into the wall... and the garage.
* Mark Martin -- 14th, Coming from 29th on the grid, this was a good finish. At least he won't have to worry about finishing second in the championship for a fifth time.
* Ryan Newman -- 12th, With the exception of Earnhardt Jr., all of my picks placed in the top 15. Unfortunately, most of them had been in the top 10 at one point, including the #12. The last set of pit stops jumbled up the field, so the guys that had been strong didn't have time to get back to the front. Ryan was one of them.
* Jeff Burton -- 15th, At least he cracked the top 10 for a while.
REST OF THE TOP 10:
* Kyle Busch -- 1st, I felt sure that when Kyle inherited the lead after staying out on the last stop that he was doomed. But the car was strong. He got passed by race-leader Biffle, but a few laps later he grabbed the lead back. Too bad he had to use the Victory Lane speech as a show of solidarity for his loser brother. But blood is thicker than champagne, apparently.
* Bobby Labonte -- 5th, He'd like to feel what it's like to be in the winner's circle one last time before wasting the rest of his competitive years driving for the Pettys.
* Robby Gordon -- 8th, A great day for Robby. Coming off a great 7th place start. This could turn everything around for him. Who cares?
* Dale Jarrett -- 9th, And he wasn't even racing the truck.
* Travis Kvapil -- 10th, Been so long since I've had to type his name that I forgot how to spell it. Wow. Good think Kurt Busch is joining Penske next year, because Travis surely needs some more mentoring from a former champion. Right.
OTHER NOTABLES:
* Kevin Harvick -- 23rd, Once again turned a good start into crap.
* Rusty Wallace -- 29th, The Last Call tour is about to reach its last call and Rusty still hasn't won in over a year.
* Kurt Busch -- DNS, I think I've said just about enough about KB for this season. Real reason he was tearful in his Sunday interview? This guarantees he'll finish 10th in the Chase -- behind Jeremy Mayfield. The ultimate insult!
Next week: Hurrah! Homestead! Just another 400 miles till Tony can start polishing his new hardware.
Phoenix pick change!
OK, seeing as Kurt Busch has been suspended the final two races for "reckless" driving, I will dump him from this week's Glenn's Ten in favor of Dale Earnhardt Jr.
...Geez, what a bonehead.
Week 35 -- Phoenix (Chase Round 9)
We're getting close to the end, and can't you feel the suspense building? Phoenix may not decide the championship, but it will definitely set the table for whatever happens next Sunday at Homestead. Every point for Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards will be crucial if they hope to have a legitimate shot at catching Tony Stewart. And all three are starting in the top 10 this Sunday.
GLENN'S TEN:
* Jeff Gordon (winner) -- Phoenix is one of four tracks where Jeff Gordon hasn't won. But unlike the other three, this place he actually has been consistently in the top 10. Last year he was third. The car qualified 10th in race trim late in the qualifying session when the track was heating up. He'll finally break into victory lane here.
REST OF THE TOP 10 (in no particular order):
* Jimmie Johnson -- will get a good finish and gain points on Tony Stewart, but not as many as he'd like.
* Carl Edwards -- Would be my pick to win if I didn't feel so strongly about Gordon. Carl is on a tear, having won the past two Cup races and Saturday night's Busch race from the pole. We'll see if he can make some serious inroads on Tony's lead.
* Tony Stewart -- He'll keep the other Chasers close to him at the finish.
* Denny Hamlin -- OK, I'm a believer now. The kid won the pole in just his fifth start, and he's coming off several top 10s. Look for Denny to be big stuff in next year's deep rookie class.
* Greg Biffle -- Biff's title chances look slim, but this is a Roush track.
* Kurt Busch -- Kurt's title chances look less than slim, but this is a Roush track.
* Mark Martin -- *Sigh* Do I need to repeat myself...
* Ryan Newman -- He ran his first career race at this track. Could be a top 10 day.
* Jeff Burton -- When he was a Roushketeer he used to win races here. Don't count him out from having a good day.
ALSO WATCHING: Dale Earnhardt Jr. (Back-to-back victories in this race, but I can't find a home for him in the top 10? Yeah, I'll probably live to regret this pick)... Matt Kenseth (Only Rousher I left off the list)... Rusty Wallace (Forget the Chase -- he's out of it anyhow -- this is about trying to get one more win before his career is over)... Kyle Busch (Starts 15th, but has run into trouble lately).
